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04-05-2018, 06:14 AM - 1 Like   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Folks, this is an interesting thread but there are one or two comments bordering on accusations. We can challenge opinions without having to call out other members and criticise them. Let's keep this friendly, please!

Thanks
Thanks big guy.

04-05-2018, 07:41 AM   #32
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General Motors just announced they will no longer report sales on a monthly basis. They will report sales quarterly going forward. It seems there is too much short term fluctuation and the month to month numbers can be misleading. I would be okay id CIPA did the same.
04-05-2018, 08:00 AM - 1 Like   #33
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QuoteOriginally posted by rangercarp Quote
General Motors just announced they will no longer report sales on a monthly basis. They will report sales quarterly going forward. It seems there is too much short term fluctuation and the month to month numbers can be misleading. I would be okay id CIPA did the same.
Funny, when someone says MILC is taking over the world, no one says that. But when someone says "MILC has peaked." , now we wish there was better reporting. I see how this works.
04-05-2018, 08:04 AM   #34
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I learned some time ago that whatever I think is going to happen in the digital photography market usually doesn't. In fact, you good folks could do worse than bet on the opposite of my opinions

04-05-2018, 08:15 AM - 5 Likes   #35
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As reported in another thread

People who offer advice based on what they believe will happen in the future have a very poor track record, both about what will happen in the future and on what we will need to accommodate it.

Read more at: The "everything but gear talk" thread. What's your project, what's your take on it? - Page 7 - PentaxForums.com

For those who want the short version, 5 years ago a number of forum members told me I needed to lay out $4k for a D800 because 4k TV was coming. It turns out, my 16MP K-5 images look awesome on 4k TV, and no different than my K-3 or K-1 images. It turns out it was really bad advice, although it couldn't be proven at the time.

That's the thing about arguing about what will happen in the future. By the time you're proved wrong, your decision to dump Pentax means you're no longer a member of the forum and no one can rub it in your face.

And there's a few faces I'd love to be rubbing right now. You get bullied into silence by the opinionated loudmouths, then when the future comes (and they were wrong), they're no where to be seen.

I feel cheated.

Last edited by normhead; 04-05-2018 at 08:32 AM.
04-05-2018, 08:25 AM - 3 Likes   #36
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^^ They look PDG on 1080p HDTV too
04-05-2018, 09:42 AM - 3 Likes   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by rangercarp Quote
General Motors just announced they will no longer report sales on a monthly basis. They will report sales quarterly going forward. It seems there is too much short term fluctuation and the month to month numbers can be misleading. I would be okay id CIPA did the same.
It's only parenthetically related to this thread, but when I worked for Ford Motor Company in the eighties, auto sales in Canada and the U.S. were reported every 10 days, even though bonuses were paid monthly and quarterly. From a Bloomberg report "The auto industry began reporting monthly U.S. sales in late 1990, when then-Chrysler Corp. was first to make the switch away from releasing deliveries figures every 10 days, the Detroit News reported. GM followed suit three years later..."

CIPA is just a clearing house for statistics, supported by camera manufacturers. Each participating manufacturer submits their actual results, CIPA aggregates the data and publishes reports that don't reveal how individual manufacturers are doing compared to other manufacturers. Lots of industries have similar arrangements, the North American auto industry is unusual in that sales by model are reported, so it is very simple to determine which marketing programs of your competitors are successful and which aren't. Which also explains why auto manufacturers want to go to longer reporting periods, because it takes away an excuse for dealers to decline to commit to long term order commitments.

If your business is manufacturing or selling cars or cameras, you know perfectly well what constitutes a trend and what doesn't. In the absence of data that is timely and has sufficient precision, you have to guess (or gamble) and costly mistakes get made. Any push to reduce the amount of useful public data is driven by executives who don't want to pay the price for their costly mistakes. Like devaluing currency, once one major industry player stops providing data, the value of all industry statistics drops.
04-05-2018, 10:42 AM - 2 Likes   #38
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
It's only parenthetically related to this thread, but when I worked for Ford Motor Company in the eighties, auto sales in Canada and the U.S. were reported every 10 days, even though bonuses were paid monthly and quarterly. From a Bloomberg report "The auto industry began reporting monthly U.S. sales in late 1990, when then-Chrysler Corp. was first to make the switch away from releasing deliveries figures every 10 days, the Detroit News reported. GM followed suit three years later..."

CIPA is just a clearing house for statistics, supported by camera manufacturers. Each participating manufacturer submits their actual results, CIPA aggregates the data and publishes reports that don't reveal how individual manufacturers are doing compared to other manufacturers. Lots of industries have similar arrangements, the North American auto industry is unusual in that sales by model are reported, so it is very simple to determine which marketing programs of your competitors are successful and which aren't. Which also explains why auto manufacturers want to go to longer reporting periods, because it takes away an excuse for dealers to decline to commit to long term order commitments.

If your business is manufacturing or selling cars or cameras, you know perfectly well what constitutes a trend and what doesn't. In the absence of data that is timely and has sufficient precision, you have to guess (or gamble) and costly mistakes get made. Any push to reduce the amount of useful public data is driven by executives who don't want to pay the price for their costly mistakes. Like devaluing currency, once one major industry player stops providing data, the value of all industry statistics drops.
That’s why Security Analysts drive around and look at how many cars are in the Home Depot lots vs. in the Lowe’s lots. Anyone could have known Builders’ Square or Circuit City or Sports Authority was in trouble by just looking at the parking lots. Same with how many vehicles are stacked up outside an auto plant and how many empty car transports are sitting there. It gets really interesting when you see changes happening.

.:

04-05-2018, 10:45 AM   #39
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Funny, when someone says MILC is taking over the world, no one says that. But when someone says "MILC has peaked." , now we wish there was better reporting. I see how this works.
Actually Norm, I think we are in the same camp. Looking at those longer term trends, we have witnessed a decline in the growth of MILCs, and a lessening of the decline in DSLR sales. We also see that DSLR sales continue to best MILC sales by a significant margin (at least 15%). I suspect looking at longer term data reinforces the notion that MILC sales are at or near their peak, as a proportion of the overall ILC market.
04-05-2018, 11:03 AM   #40
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QuoteOriginally posted by rangercarp Quote
We also see that DSLR sales continue to best MILC sales by a significant margin (at least 15%)
Mathematically speaking you're right; OTOH the DSLR:MILC production/shipments rate is more than 1.87/1.9:1 in DSLR's favor. And I don't believe the DSLRs made are sent to sit in large depots all over the world
04-05-2018, 12:52 PM - 1 Like   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
It's funny. One comes in here with facts and data, and soon enough the unbased opinions come in. Some have to go back all the way to 2012 to find data that they like... Why not analyze the data trend of the last 12 months? Ah, it's because DSLRs gained market share by unit and MILCs lost...
Then they get all pissy and angry at us DSLR users for not going away.
If the fact that we are still around bothers you so much then just don't come in here anymore, it's that simple!
I’m sorry for this late reply but I have been out all day taking photographs, as it happens.

Look at the figures for the last twelve months instead of over a longer period if you prefer. One form factor is down and the other is up. The years have painted a fairly similar picture for a while now. Going back further just makes the picture clearer, that’s all.

And so what anyway? It’s just reality. That’s how the market is behaving so far as we can tell. It has nothing to do with winning or losing. It’s not a value judgement but a set of figures.

The figures for 2018 might be totally and completely different and surprise everyone. If that happened it would be be reality too. This is about on the level of Diet Coke vs Diet Pepsi at the end of the day. I’m sorry if my original post has upset you but the intention wasn’t to take sides. In fact I stressed there was “masses of room for both kinds of camera.” If I say something is here to stay, that’s not a one-sided endorsement. It’s just stating the reality of where the market has taken us for the past few years. We have to start from where we are, not from where we’d like things to be.

Last edited by mecrox; 04-05-2018 at 01:10 PM.
04-05-2018, 02:44 PM   #42
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If Pentax sells 400,000 dSLR’s a year all-in and Canon and Nikon combined sell 8,000,000, who is more hurt if dSLR sales stop declining here and MILC sales keep rising?
04-16-2018, 05:27 PM   #43
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
I'm surprised no one commented on this yet...

DSLRs and MILCs are both in trouble with sales down from last year. For over a year now, the percentage of sales has been holding steadily with DLSRs at about 60-65% of the interchangeable cameras market, and MILCs at about 35-40%... except this month, DSLRs are 70% and MILCs are at 30%, probably due to a big shipment of entry-level cameras from Canon. The average should stay around 65-35 in the months to come.

So, the market share seems to be stuck at 65-35 (60-40 in the asian markets), though the new MILCs from Canon and Nikon that are rumored to be launched this year could obviously change that.

The other interesting thing is that the MILC cost per unit has been steadily increasing and the gap to the DSLR per unit cost, which has been lower now for a while, is widening.

My conclusion: It looks like the DSLR still has a lot of life in it... but the ILC camera market could really suffer now in the era of the two-lens cell phones. ILCs are becoming more and more of a specialty tool, and as a niche market I'm sure they will remain - I can't see any wedding photogs or sports photogs or bird enthusiasts doing their jobs on cell phones in the near future...

See February 2018 CIPA Results and Analysis | Canon News
CP+ 2018 interviews: The reign of the DSLR is almost over...: Digital Photography Review

"This year, almost all the executives we spoke to seemed to agree on one thing: full-frame mirrorless will become the norm, and it will happen pretty soon. Kenji Tanaka of Sony even put a date on it, saying that in his opinion, Canon and Nikon would join Sony in the full-frame mirrorless space within a year. Executives from Sigma and Tamron were similarly confident, and even Go Tokura of Canon dropped a couple of fairly heavy hints that the move to mirrorless is imminent."

The DSLR isn't going to die anytime soon, but there is a transition taking place. In the next 3-5 years I think we see a shift to the point mirrorless is a larger market than DSLR. Canon is watching Sony eat into its wedding and video market. Nikon has been bleeding for several years now. I think the 1DX and 5D users will be the key market for Canon and Nikon DSLRs. That will be the hardest market for Sony to crack.
04-16-2018, 06:11 PM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
even Go Tokura of Canon dropped a couple of fairly heavy hints that the move to mirrorless is imminent.
I wonder if it occured to the article writer at DPR that if Canon was committed to an imminent launch of a new mirrorless product line, this executive would be making an announcement, not dropping hints (which may be a case of a breathless internet writer reading into the typically vague, non-commital remarks we get from executives of Japanese camera manufacturers, what he wants to see).

Cripes, if Canon or Nikon wanted to launch a FF mirrorless camera by the end of this week, they probably could. As far as the Sony guy goes, of course he hopes more manufacturers launch FF mirrorless cameras, it makes his task of justifying his job to Sony Corp. a lot easier and makes it a lot easier to obtain capital investments from the mother corporation. If launching new ILC models in today's market was a sure thing, we would have already seen a plethora of them being announced and made available for sale. There is no technological barrier, only a financial one. The people making the final decisions on launching new models are looking at the same CIPA numbers we are, plus their own confidential sales reports and in most cases, they are deciding to "feel out the marketplace", in other words, do nothing until there are real indicators that there is potential to make money with new mirrorless models. How long will it take before they give up waiting for those positive indicators? It doesn't matter, we aren't talking about manufacturing film which requires an integrated industrial process that can't be used for anything else, several camera manufacturers have the capability of developing new mirrorless cameras using the facilities and know-how they currently have.
04-16-2018, 06:17 PM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
CP+ 2018 interviews: The reign of the DSLR is almost over...: Digital Photography Review

The DSLR isn't going to die anytime soon, but there is a transition taking place. In the next 3-5 years I think we see a shift to the point mirrorless is a larger market than DSLR. Canon is watching Sony eat into its wedding and video market. Nikon has been bleeding for several years now. I think the 1DX and 5D users will be the key market for Canon and Nikon DSLRs. That will be the hardest market for Sony to crack.
I've been hearing about that for many years now... But if you look at the numbers for the last 12 months it doesn't look to be going that way does it?
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