[monochrome]

This is like the professional sports. NFL ratings are down 25% and some teams barely sell enough tix to open the stadium. Somebody won the Super Bowl. Everybody else didn’t.

I don’t care about NFL football. St. Louis doesn’t have a team. I watch Lacrosse (niche sport). Other people watch basketball or football (soccer) or Rugby or even Speedskating (South Korea). Who cares where share is gained or lost as long as I can watch good Lacrosse.

I don’t care about CaNiSony. I don’t have a dog in that hunt. I’ll worry when a few more pro’s won’t take up K-1 because they realize Ricoh has decided Imaging isn’t worth investing any more money - (maybe I should start worrying).

[normhead]

This is like the professional sports. NFL ratings are down 25% and some teams barely sell enough tix to open the stadium. Somebody won the Super Bowl. Everybody else didn’t.

I don’t care about NFL football. St. Louis doesn’t have a team. I watch Lacrosse (niche sport). Other people watch basketball or football (soccer) or Rugby or even Speedskating (South Korea). Who cares where share is gained or lost as long as I can watch good Lacrosse.

I don’t care about CaNiSony. I don’t have a dog in that hunt. I’ll worry when a few more pro’s won’t take up K-1 because they realize Ricoh has decided Imaging isn’t worth investing any more money - (maybe I should start worrying).

I really wish they didn't exist, I bought a refurb Nikon AW for use in the canoe, because it was half the price of a Pentax. We just don't like the colours. It's the only camera I've ever bought that no one ever wants to use.

[reh321]

These numbers may explain Samsung's decision to put their MILC line on ice and invest their limited resources in smart phones.

[mecrox]

@Mistral I don't think anyone is happy about the numbers, I don't know where you saw that. I even said that I see the interchangeable lens camera market taking a bigger dive in the age of the two-lens smart phones.

But it also can't be denied that DSLRs are not dead and are not worse off than MILCs as of late. And I also think that the camera maker that positions itself for the niche photography markets that still demand a higher level of quality in larger sensors and purpose built lenses, will continue to be able to do business. In fact, the main MILC niche of small normal lenses might be more at risk than DSLRs which balance better and make more sense with large telephoto or wide angle lenses. I would not be surprised if from now on, MILCs lose more market to phone cameras than DSLRs.

Video will probably be the MILCs niche that is most likely to keep them in business.

One CIPA datapoint doesn’t really tell us much and the CIPA figures themselves aren’t the best (even if the best we have). For example, units produced or units shipped does not equate to units actually sold. And units sold may be at a good margin or at firesale prices. So the CIPA figures don’t tell us about what every company wants: enough ROI to generate some profits. Chasing sales is a mug’s game if all you do is lose money on them.

It’s better to look at tends over time, imho. To borrow some figures from a very solid guy on another forum, the CIPA picture since 2012 is that DSLR volume is down 53% while MILC volume is up 3%, and DSLR revenue is down 43%, while MILC revenue is up 77%.

It’s likely this which has captured the attention of some camera companies hungry for growth and recently the only growth story in town has been with MILCs, mostly in Asia + Japan. Hence Canon and Nikon stirring ...

Trends don’t predict the future of course and the fast growth of MILCs or anything else will eventually slow and then flatten. In the meantime DSLRs are still going great guns with cameras like the D850 proving so popular that supply is permanently constrained.

There’s obviously masses of room for both kinds of camera but the picture going forward will show a quite different “product mix” to what it might have done a few years ago. MILCs aren’t a flash in the pan but here to stay.

[beholder3]

With the inferior DSLM fad dying now quicker than it appeared, what will be next?

When looking at the image quality superior smartphones like the P20 pro can deliver I think all unergonomically "small" camera types are going to be wiped out first. That will probably hit the boxy style DSLMs first (Olympus, Sony mFT and APSC).

[Kunzite]

One CIPA datapoint doesn’t really tell us much and the CIPA figures themselves aren’t the best (even if the best we have).

Best we have is much better than making stuff up, or using marketing figures pertinent only to specific market and time periods

It’s better to look at tends over time, imho. To borrow some figures from a very solid guy on another forum, the CIPA picture since 2012 is that DSLR volume is down 53% while MILC volume is up 3%, and DSLR revenue is down 43%, while MILC revenue is up 77%.

No, cherry picking your data is not better.
Any eventually successful technology would grow a lot in its first stage, until it reaches maturity; this obviously happened with DSLRs, too. The data you're showing... has only historical value. But it's a good propaganda tool.
Then, the year 2012 should be properly understood.

[mecrox]

Best we have is much better than making stuff up, or using marketing figures pertinent only to specific market and time periods


No, cherry picking your data is not better.
Any eventually successful technology would grow a lot in its first stage, until it reaches maturity; this obviously happened with DSLRs, too. The data you're showing... has only historical value. But it's a good propaganda tool.
Then, the year 2012 should be properly understood.

From the OED:

forum
NOUN

A meeting or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged.

Making stuff up, cherrypicking, propaganda ... I’m not sure you’re really following what a forum is actually for ... an exchange implies arguing from evidence that a statement is made up or propaganda not merely asserting so ... I’m not seeing an argued position here ...

---

Last edited by mecrox; 04-05-2018 at 03:49 AM.

[Kunzite]

The first paragraph wasn't about your careful selection of convenient CIPA data, but various marketing claims.

The second... nope, a forum is not by definition made to promote mirrorless on DSLR forums using cherry picked and very much irrelevant data.
You're not showing any evidence because you don't have a claim, by the way.

[mecrox]

The first paragraph wasn't about your careful selection of convenient CIPA data, but various marketing claims.

The second... nope, a forum is not by definition made to promote mirrorless on DSLR forums using cherry picked and very much irrelevant data.
You're not showing any evidence because you don't have a claim, by the way.

Many people would have different views of those CIPA figures, quite naturally. But the idea is to put forward a reasoned position, not to resort to ad hominem remarks. I reasoned my position and others have given theirs based on that data, but where is yours?

[Kunzite]

Rude? Ad hominem? All I'm saying is you were cherry picking data (by going with the 2012-present interval, to show a slight MILC increase and a large DSLR decrease). You're not the only one entitled to an opinion, you know?

---------- Post added 05-04-18 at 02:35 PM ----------

And sorry, it seems like I was mistaken - you do have a claim, which is that the CIPA 2012-today's figures form a "trend". Which they don't and this is not how you compute trends anyway, but oh well...

[monochrome]

The point is, most camera companies invested to meet the outsized demand for compacts, then dSLR’s from mid 2000’s through 2013, then found themselves grossly over capitalized. The iPhone, which has removed the cashflow from compacts, was in troduced in 2007. Frankly it has plateaued but switching costs keep users in the iOS system. MILC’s are just a capital reallocation response.

[monochrome]

The point is, most camera companies invested to meet the outsized demand for compacts, then dSLR’s from mid 2000’s through 2013, then found themselves grossly over capitalized. The iPhone, which has removed the cashflow from compacts, was in troduced in 2007. Frankly it has plateaued but switching costs keep users in the iOS system. MILC’s are just a capital reallocation response. The marketing was brilliant for the NEX. Now the technology is delivering the promise but, like a phone camera, the ergonomics are not ideal.

[ChristianRock]

It's funny. One comes in here with facts and data, and soon enough the unbased opinions come in. Some have to go back all the way to 2012 to find data that they like... Why not analyze the data trend of the last 12 months? Ah, it's because DSLRs gained market share by unit and MILCs lost...
Then they get all pissy and angry at us DSLR users for not going away.
If the fact that we are still around bothers you so much then just don't come in here anymore, it's that simple!

[ogl]

The data:


- DSLRs: -8.3% in units and -4.4% in ¥
- MILCs: -9.3% in units and +6.9% in ¥

MILCs are falling like DSLR...The many forecasts that MILCs would change DSLR was wrong...

[BigMackCam]

Folks, this is an interesting thread but there are one or two comments bordering on accusations. We can challenge opinions without having to call out other members and criticise them. Let's keep this friendly, please!

Thanks