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04-18-2018, 07:21 AM - 3 Likes   #76
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"It's a camera, Jim, but not as we know it".

04-18-2018, 08:59 AM   #77
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Demand for mirrorless is rising. Demand for DSLRs is falling. Look at prices. Total units shipped for mirrorless has stayed constant even as prices have risen.
No, from the data the total units shipped for mirrorless fell in the last 12 months, so that is not entirely accurate.

QuoteQuote:
Prices reflect demand. Look at prices not volume.
You can't just pick the data you like and ignore the rest, it doesn't work that way Everyone that studied basic economics knows that demand is based both prices and volume, not just prices.

Facts: the number of mirrorless cameras shipped fell in Feb 2018, but the prices are higher per unit. The number of DSLR cameras shipped in Feb 2018 actually increased compared to a year ago, but the prices are lower per unit.
04-18-2018, 09:06 AM - 1 Like   #78
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The ONLY thing a cell cam is good for is quick/easy shots. Like all multifunction gadgets, cells can get very cumbersome and irritating when used for shooting. I love a nice fat grip plus all the short-cut buttons and fine control a proper camera has.
04-18-2018, 10:17 AM - 9 Likes   #79
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
You can't just pick the data you like and ignore the rest, it doesn't work that way Everyone that studied basic economics knows that demand is based both prices and volume, not just prices.
.
It's almost like a legal argument. They pick the arguments and present them based on what they see as their "clients." Like there is an arbitration judge who's going to look at the arguments and decide which has the most merit. The problem being, there is no judge, the legal model is inappropriate to forum discussions. While many of us here come to find information, some seem more interested in suppressing the information they don't like, as if the information they like is somehow going to reward them for being so biased.

There is no judge.
No one has clients.
Most of the big picture is presented by kind people who take their time to correct innacurate statements presented by fanboys.
There is no pay-off. If you con the whole forum into thinking what you wish was true is actually true, all you've done is hoodwinked a bunch of people, to conform to your own inaccurate beliefs.
I guess they are practicing for their chosen careers as used car salesmen or something. What else can it be?
Why do people identify with mirrorless so much they have a need to suppress some facts and promote others to make their points?

It's mystery to me. But, those types are by far the most influenced by marketing. The whole goal of marketing is create personal identification with product to the point where countering facts are ignored. The whole goal of marketing is to create people who can ignore all the facts and just say "this product is the best, period, for everyone." What accompanies that is that there is something wrong with the people who don't see it the way they do. They've got it right, no one else's opinion matters.

As for the numbers they are interesting, that's all. They make no predictions as to whether a beginning photographer is more suited to mirrorless or optical. Any given photographer can be at either end of the mirrorless/optical spectrum and a great many of the best would be happy using both to their strengths. Large scale data can not predict personal situations.

Argue market share dollar, and value all you want. It makes no difference personally. All that makes a difference to you personally is that you can find something that meets your preferences.

We have constant warfare between those who look at data and think that's interesting, pretty useless but interesting, and those who's personal positions are locked up into marketing hype and their personal beliefs. It's really sad, but reality rarely conforms to the majority of people's personal beliefs. A smart person doesn't expound too much on what they know, because they know how much they don't know. Look at data like this and realize, it's a small window on reality, and whatever position you take on it, it's probably inaccurate to some degree, if not dead wrong. It's just interesting to read. Any conclusions are suspect.


Last edited by normhead; 04-19-2018 at 05:53 AM.
04-18-2018, 12:03 PM   #80
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That about sums it up, Norm...
04-18-2018, 01:20 PM - 3 Likes   #81
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Any given photographer can be at either end of the mirrorless/optical spectrum and a great many of the best would be happy using both to their strengths.
When I first read that, I thought "Hey, I'm one of the best!" - then I realised that's not what you meant, and in any case I know it ain't true

I do, however, like to think that I'm a lot less swayed by marketing these days... I'm only interested in facts, and how something works for me. I generally don't believe manufacturer claims - or I at least view them with a healthy dose of skepticism. I'm far more likely to consider the opinions and experiences of a number of people who've actually used the equipment I'm interested in. Even then, I don't consider that a guarantee that I'll agree with them.

The great thing with modern gear is that none of it is far short of excellent, so we really can't make bad choices (unless we do something silly, like buying a medium format camera for fast-action sports).
04-19-2018, 11:11 AM   #82
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FF and mirrorless revenue is up. It seems that Mirrorless isnt replacing the DSLR, its replacing the entry level dslr. Even a layman realizes that a picture from a DSLR is better than a picture from a cell phone...but when they want to upgrade, they are trying to get something that is as easy to use as a point and shoot yet quality of a DSLR. It is easy for Mirrorless cameras to fall into that niche. You are seeing a lot of cannibalization of lines as things because there hasn't been much innovation technology wise. We have had FF 36mp since 2012 (d800) and 24mp APS-C soon after and there hasn't been a significant improvement in noise, speed, or usability except at the highest end (A9, D850...and 5dmk4...) Most lines will consolidate to entry level - mirrorless, a mid range of FF DSLR/Mirrorless, and a high end FF DSLR/Mirrorless.

---------- Post added 04-19-18 at 02:14 PM ----------

Also the rapid model changes of camera bodies is creating a glut of bodies, that drives all prices down even what used to be high end. D800s are selling under 1k used, A7mk1 are under 700 used, aps-c dslr/mirrorless is under 300 used...

04-19-2018, 09:43 PM   #83
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This has been an interesting thread. I wouldn’t get too caught up in predictions though since there have been so many changes to the photography market over the last several years.
04-19-2018, 10:07 PM   #84
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QuoteOriginally posted by str8talk83 Quote
I wouldn’t get too caught up in predictions
I'll predict that by years end Dslrs sales will be down on 2017,continuing the decline in popularity.However if RI count the upgrades of the already sold K-1 models,then that may boost the figures(ha ha).

M/L will probably not sell as many as 2017,which was an out of the ordinary year.Mind you the CaNik FFs may boost those figures IF they get released this year???
04-21-2018, 08:28 AM - 1 Like   #85
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChristianRock Quote
No, from the data the total units shipped for mirrorless fell in the last 12 months, so that is not entirely accurate.



You can't just pick the data you like and ignore the rest, it doesn't work that way Everyone that studied basic economics knows that demand is based both prices and volume, not just prices.

Facts: the number of mirrorless cameras shipped fell in Feb 2018, but the prices are higher per unit. The number of DSLR cameras shipped in Feb 2018 actually increased compared to a year ago, but the prices are lower per unit.
I didn't say demand is based on prices. I said price reflects demand. You need to read up on the Price Elasticity of Demand and Substitute goods. Month to month numbers are not of much value and even year over year is pretty irrelevant. Cameras have a 2-3 year life cycle and release cycles play a big role monthly numbers as do events like Christmas or earthquakes. We need to be looking at 4-6 years worth of numbers. If you will graph sales of DSLRs and mirrorless from 2012 to current and then graph the price per-unit sold over that time you will see the direction the market it going.

Last edited by MarkJerling; 04-22-2018 at 04:53 PM. Reason: Personal comment removed.
04-21-2018, 09:46 AM - 1 Like   #86
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I believe you're ignoring one essential aspect: they're not the same products.
04-21-2018, 10:28 AM - 2 Likes   #87
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
I didn't say demand is based on prices. I said price reflects demand. You need to read up on the Price Elasticity of Demand and Substitute goods. Month to month numbers are not of much value and even year over year is pretty irrelevant. Cameras have a 2-3 year life cycle and release cycles play a big role monthly numbers as do events like Christmas or earthquakes. We need to be looking at 4-6 years worth of numbers. If you will graph sales of DSLRs and mirrorless from 2012 to current and then graph the price per-unit sold over that time you will see the direction the market it going.
Price only reflects demand under certain conditions (unchanging goods consumed by an unchanging population) most often seen with simple commodities such as crude oil or eggs.

There are at least two major exceptions to the typical rules of price elasticity:

1) Any kind of technological change can entirely up-end the relationship by creating high-price-low-demand products (e.g., top-end camera) or low-price-high-demand products (e.g., entry-level camera using last-years fully paid technologies). Moore's Law both creates about a 50% per year price deflation on semiconductors (creating price declines independent of demand) and enables astounding performance upgrades (creating demand increases independent of price).

2) Veblen Goods have the opposite price elasticity of normal goods. With a Veblen good, a price rise spurs increased demand and a price drop causes decreased demand. A classic example of a Velblen good is a status symbol product in which consumers are willing to pay more because they know it will signal their wealth to their peers. That's certainly a common phenomenon in photography in which many are willing to pay huge amounts of money to have the latest and greatest camera with the biggest and fastest lens.

Unless you have independent data on why companies are setting prices they set (e.g., technological effects) and why buyers are accepting prices they pay (e.g., status symbols), the changes in prices and unit sales tell you nothing about what's going on.

Last edited by MarkJerling; 04-22-2018 at 04:54 PM. Reason: Personal comment in quoted text removed.
04-21-2018, 11:12 AM - 1 Like   #88
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QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
I'll predict that by years end Dslrs sales will be down on 2017,continuing the decline in popularity.However if RI count the upgrades of the already sold K-1 models,then that may boost the figures(ha ha).

M/L will probably not sell as many as 2017,which was an out of the ordinary year.Mind you the CaNik FFs may boost those figures IF they get released this year???
I really enjoy reading all your posts. Very helpful additions to every thread. Constantly cheer me up and never fail to make me optimistic about the future. So happy you come here every day.
04-28-2018, 08:34 AM - 1 Like   #89
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Price only reflects demand under certain conditions (unchanging goods consumed by an unchanging population) most often seen with simple commodities such as crude oil or eggs.

There are at least two major exceptions to the typical rules of price elasticity:

1) Any kind of technological change can entirely up-end the relationship by creating high-price-low-demand products (e.g., top-end camera) or low-price-high-demand products (e.g., entry-level camera using last-years fully paid technologies). Moore's Law both creates about a 50% per year price deflation on semiconductors (creating price declines independent of demand) and enables astounding performance upgrades (creating demand increases independent of price).

2) Veblen Goods have the opposite price elasticity of normal goods. With a Veblen good, a price rise spurs increased demand and a price drop causes decreased demand. A classic example of a Velblen good is a status symbol product in which consumers are willing to pay more because they know it will signal their wealth to their peers. That's certainly a common phenomenon in photography in which many are willing to pay huge amounts of money to have the latest and greatest camera with the biggest and fastest lens.

Unless you have independent data on why companies are setting prices they set (e.g., technological effects) and why buyers are accepting prices they pay (e.g., status symbols), the changes in prices and unit sales tell you nothing about what's going on.
Veblen goods are specific goods (typically specific brands) within a larger group. Like Leica, this brand can command a higher price due to status and perception, but all cameras are not Veblen Goods. Veblen Goods are always niche products and have virtually no impact on overall market movements. The concept of Veblen Goods represents an anomaly in a larger market. Like Moore's Law, the concept of Veblen Goods is simply a concept. Neither of them are actual laws or even rules. The idea that Sony mirrorless cameras are Veblen Goods is laughable. Sony is a mainstream consumer brand and the biggest complaint is that their cameras don't hold value. People upgrading to the biggest and fastest are still buying DSLRs. No mirrorless company currently holds the title of having the biggest and /or fastest lenses. Sony still lags behind Canon & Nikon for glass and even AF speed. The Nikon D5 is still a faster camera than an A9. The D5 is about $1,000 more expensive than the A9. Leica and Hassy are the only two companies that make mirrorless that would could be Veblen Goods and they don't sell enough camera a year to have any impact on market prices. Veblen Goods represent an anomaly in a larger market.

I don't need independent data on specific companies. I can simply graph the price and number of units sold for both DSLRs and Mirrorless since 2012 and the industry trend is obvious. But without all that data that you claim that I need, I'm going to go with Ockham's razor. The most common reason for rising prices is rising demand when supply is constant.
04-28-2018, 08:57 AM   #90
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Veblen goods are specific goods (typically specific brands) within a larger group. Like Leica, this brand can command a higher price due to status and perception, but all cameras are not Veblen Goods. Veblen Goods are always niche products and have virtually no impact on overall market movements. The concept of Veblen Goods represents an anomaly in a larger market. Like Moore's Law, the concept of Veblen Goods is simply a concept. Neither of them are actual laws or even rules. The idea that Sony mirrorless cameras are Veblen Goods is laughable. Sony is a mainstream consumer brand and the biggest complaint is that their cameras don't hold value. People upgrading to the biggest and fastest are still buying DSLRs. No mirrorless company currently holds the title of having the biggest and /or fastest lenses. Sony still lags behind Canon & Nikon for glass and even AF speed. The Nikon D5 is still a faster camera than an A9. The D5 is about $1,000 more expensive than the A9. Leica and Hassy are the only two companies that make mirrorless that would could be Veblen Goods and they don't sell enough camera a year to have any impact on market prices. Veblen Goods represent an anomaly in a larger market.

I don't need independent data on specific companies. I can simply graph the price and number of units sold for both DSLRs and Mirrorless since 2012 and the industry trend is obvious. But without all that data that you claim that I need, I'm going to go with Ockham's razor. The most common reason for rising prices is rising demand when supply is constant.
Actually cameras, especially ILCs, are Veblen goods for a large percentage of buyers. Except for a few actual professionals, most "big cameras" and "big lens" are ego purchases so the buyer can show off their wealth.
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