February 2018 CIPA numbers are in... the DSLR lives!

str8talk83 · 05-12-2018, 11:47 AM

I’m interested to see if mirrorless will be invading the pro wedding/portrait shooting market. A lot of pros in that market were using a midrange full frame (like d750) and avoiding mirrorless due to the weaknesses. Those weaknesses being inferior AF, battery life and lens limitations. I think that the a7 iii changes all of that and mirrorless has caught up now.

The niche that would be left for DSLRs would then be sports and wildlife. I think it will be a while before that space is invaded by mirrorless.

photoptimist · 05-12-2018, 12:17 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Winder

That is incorrect. The laws of supply and demand don't make any assumptions about any specific product or the customer or the currency. The law of supply and demand simply provides a way to visualize the relationship between the supply, demand, & price of any good or service. Its not a "supposed" law.

If you would like to present a good argument refuting the laws of supply and demand, I would love to hear it.

Here are two good arguments refuting the laws of supply and demand:

Veblen Good
"Veblen goods contradict the basic law of demand "

Giffen Good
"A Giffen good has an upward-sloping demand curve, which is contrary to the fundamental law of demand "

Or look at the evolution of the PC market where prices steadily fell for decades even as demand surged.

Winder · 05-12-2018, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by photoptimist

Here are two good arguments refuting the laws of supply and demand:

Veblen Good
"Veblen goods contradict the basic law of demand "

Giffen Good
"A Giffen good has an upward-sloping demand curve, which is contrary to the fundamental law of demand "

Or look at the evolution of the PC market where prices steadily fell for decades even as demand surged.

Those are both theories that attempt to explain perceived anomalies in the Law of Supply & Demand. As several economists have pointed out. People who buy what are often labeled as "Velben Goods" are also buying status which is a separate good in itself. These goods are 2 goods rolled into one and when you factor in the second good (status) they are no longer anomalies. Even Velben goods follow the law of supply and demand when you account for the second good. There are only 2 historical examples of Giffen Goods and even those 2 examples have possible explanations that still conform the to Laws of Supply and Demand. One is the Irish Potato famine the other is study of subsidized rice in China. " Giffen goods are quite rare, to the extent that there is some debate about their actual existence."

The computer industry is a perfect example of the laws of supply and demand. Prices fell because of the increase of supply. We started with only a handful of companies with the ability to make a PC or the components. Today, building a PC is like putting together a Lego set. Anyone can do it. The one I have now I built in a few hours.

Cameras don't represent some exotic anomaly to the laws of supply and demand. They are just like any other good. Right now the supply of mirrorless and the sales of mirrorless is staying pretty steady, but the price is rising. They only way that happens is if the demand curve shifts to the right. If anyone would care to graph the supply and demand curve showing otherwise I would like to see it.

thibs · 05-12-2018, 02:27 PM

When (IF) a theory is contradicted (effectively) by so many exceptions it looks like a joke.... the theory really is just, a theory. That's fine, we can all write one. But useful? Not sure.

reh321 · 05-15-2018, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Winder

There are only 2 historical examples of Giffen Goods and even those 2 examples have possible explanations that still conform the to Laws of Supply and Demand. One is the Irish Potato famine the other is study of subsidized rice in China. " Giffen goods are quite rare, to the extent that there is some debate about their actual existence."

The theory behind Giffen Goods is actually quite solid, but they are irrelevant to this discussion. A Giffen Good is an essential product which takes up a high proportion of someone's income - thus, as the price falls, s/he can spend less on that, thereby freeing money to spend on competing goods. Having the price of potatoes or rice fall frees up money to spend on meat .... which means the person can purchase fewer potatoes/rice ..... but no one is stupid enough to spend that much of his/her income on camera gear!!

Winder · 05-15-2018, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by reh321

The theory behind Giffen Goods is actually quite solid, but they are irrelevant to this discussion. A Giffen Good is an essential product which takes up a high proportion of someone's income - thus, as the price falls, s/he can spend less on that, thereby freeing money to spend on competing goods. Having the price of potatoes or rice fall frees up money to spend on meat .... which means the person can purchase fewer potatoes/rice ..... but no one is stupid enough to spend that much of his/her income on camera gear!!

People are saying that Giffen Goods are an exception to the laws of supply and demand, and that is not actually the case. The extreme situations like the Irish Potato Famine are due to high demand and extreme poverty. These are not properties of potatoes, rather conditions of the market at a specific time and location and consumer. What you are describing is not a property of the good in question. It is a condition of the buyer combined with a lack of substitute goods. Under this definition almost any food store could be a Giffen good under the right circumstances. Water would be a Giffen good to people living in Death Valley if they were poor enough.

There are no exceptions to the law of supply and demand. The examples people create can all be explained, but we don't always have all the information all the time and the market equilibrium is constantly adjusting as the conditions of the market change.

**Rondec** · 05-15-2018, 01:08 PM - **4 Likes**

I guess I don't understand supply/demand theory in situations where supply is basically unlimited. The issue most of the time isn't the supply at this point, is it? It is the cost of the materials/labor/R and D that go into making a product, plus the advertising on top of that, plus transportation to the store where it is sold, plus whatever mark up the store gets, plus whatever percent revenue the maker wants to get on top of it all.

In a sense camera pricing is arbitrary, but I have this sense that a lot of companies build to a price. I know Pentax best and so, it was clear to me that when they built the K-1 they built to keep the final price under 2000 dollars. If demand is small, the price tends to go up rather than down because many costs are fixed and R and D is spread over fewer units. That's (at least partly) why cameras like the A9 and D5 are as expensive as they are.

But I am not an economist and I didn't even spend last night in a Holiday Inn Express...

Last edited by Rondec; 05-15-2018 at 01:46 PM.

**RGlasel** · 05-15-2018, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Rondec

But I am not an economist and I didn't even spend last night in a Holiday Inn Express...

Brilliant! I'm not an economist either, but I did take several undergraduate courses in economics to get my business degree and I've been selling manufactured goods to businesses since 1990. You are much closer to how manufacturers in the real world price their products and how real end users decide which products to buy than the theoretical economics posts in this thread.

surfar · 06-01-2018, 02:29 PM

The April figures show more shipments than both 2016 and 2017, mirrorless up 24% over the 2017 figures.I suppose the release of the $$$ony A7 iii might have something to do with that.

RonHendriks1966 · 06-02-2018, 01:22 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by surfar

The April figures show more shipments than both 2016 and 2017, mirrorless up 24% over the 2017 figures.I suppose the release of the $$$ony A7 iii might have something to do with that.

The average price per unit of shipments to the America's of milc is more then twice that of dslr! That Sony A7iii might be popular.

surfar · 06-02-2018, 03:10 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by RonHendriks1966

That Sony A7iii might be popular.

Yes, for the people that want an all round device that does most things reasonably well.The 4th generation $$$onys will be hard to beat.

reh321 · 06-02-2018, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by surfar

Yes, for the people that want an all round device that does most things reasonably well.The 4th generation $$$onys will be hard to beat.

I'm guessing Nikon users wouldn't agree with you.

When the D850 came out, Nikon users declared it to be the "all around camera", and it had waiting lines for several months.

str8talk83 · 06-02-2018, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by reh321

I'm guessing Nikon users wouldn't agree with you.

When the D850 came out, Nikon users declared it to be the "all around camera", and it had waiting lines for several months.

I would agree that the D850 is the best “all around” DSLR available right now. I also feel that the Sony A7r iii basically matches the camera in real world unless there is a need for Nikon’s additional telephoto options.

What makes the a7iii special is the price point. It’s also a better “all around” camera to the average shooter that probably doesn’t really need the extra resolution.

k1man · 06-02-2018, 05:32 PM - **2 Likes**

Hi guys, been reading this debate with a great deal of boredom, I have most of the stuff I will ever need so it seems irrelevant to continually compare numbers, we should all be out and about taking pics not debating the future which nobody can control, regards Ian

reh321 · 06-02-2018, 06:36 PM - **5 Likes**

Originally posted by k1man

Hi guys, been reading this debate with a great deal of boredom, I have most of the stuff I will ever need so it seems irrelevant to continually compare numbers, we should all be out and about taking pics not debating the future which nobody can control, regards Ian

Then don't read it. People can talk if they want to - especially right now when enough talk can allow someone to receive a nice new K-1 to take pictures with.

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05-12-2018, 11:47 AM	#151
str8talk83 Veteran Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Bluffton, SC Photos: Albums Posts: 674	I’m interested to see if mirrorless will be invading the pro wedding/portrait shooting market. A lot of pros in that market were using a midrange full frame (like d750) and avoiding mirrorless due to the weaknesses. Those weaknesses being inferior AF, battery life and lens limitations. I think that the a7 iii changes all of that and mirrorless has caught up now. The niche that would be left for DSLRs would then be sports and wildlife. I think it will be a while before that space is invaded by mirrorless.

05-12-2018, 12:17 PM - 1 Like	#152
photoptimist Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2016 Photos: Albums Posts: 5,122	Originally posted by Winder That is incorrect. The laws of supply and demand don't make any assumptions about any specific product or the customer or the currency. The law of supply and demand simply provides a way to visualize the relationship between the supply, demand, & price of any good or service. Its not a "supposed" law. If you would like to present a good argument refuting the laws of supply and demand, I would love to hear it. Here are two good arguments refuting the laws of supply and demand: Veblen Good "Veblen goods contradict the basic law of demand " Giffen Good "A Giffen good has an upward-sloping demand curve, which is contrary to the fundamental law of demand " Or look at the evolution of the PC market where prices steadily fell for decades even as demand surged.

05-12-2018, 01:49 PM	#153
Winder Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Tennessee Posts: 6,617	Originally posted by photoptimist Here are two good arguments refuting the laws of supply and demand: Veblen Good "Veblen goods contradict the basic law of demand " Giffen Good "A Giffen good has an upward-sloping demand curve, which is contrary to the fundamental law of demand " Or look at the evolution of the PC market where prices steadily fell for decades even as demand surged. Those are both theories that attempt to explain perceived anomalies in the Law of Supply & Demand. As several economists have pointed out. People who buy what are often labeled as "Velben Goods" are also buying status which is a separate good in itself. These goods are 2 goods rolled into one and when you factor in the second good (status) they are no longer anomalies. Even Velben goods follow the law of supply and demand when you account for the second good. There are only 2 historical examples of Giffen Goods and even those 2 examples have possible explanations that still conform the to Laws of Supply and Demand. One is the Irish Potato famine the other is study of subsidized rice in China. " Giffen goods are quite rare, to the extent that there is some debate about their actual existence." The computer industry is a perfect example of the laws of supply and demand. Prices fell because of the increase of supply. We started with only a handful of companies with the ability to make a PC or the components. Today, building a PC is like putting together a Lego set. Anyone can do it. The one I have now I built in a few hours. Cameras don't represent some exotic anomaly to the laws of supply and demand. They are just like any other good. Right now the supply of mirrorless and the sales of mirrorless is staying pretty steady, but the price is rising. They only way that happens is if the demand curve shifts to the right. If anyone would care to graph the supply and demand curve showing otherwise I would like to see it.

05-12-2018, 02:27 PM	#154
thibs Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Belgium Photos: Albums Posts: 7,001	When (IF) a theory is contradicted (effectively) by so many exceptions it looks like a joke.... the theory really is just, a theory. That's fine, we can all write one. But useful? Not sure.

05-15-2018, 12:21 PM	#155
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,178	Originally posted by Winder There are only 2 historical examples of Giffen Goods and even those 2 examples have possible explanations that still conform the to Laws of Supply and Demand. One is the Irish Potato famine the other is study of subsidized rice in China. " Giffen goods are quite rare, to the extent that there is some debate about their actual existence." The theory behind Giffen Goods is actually quite solid, but they are irrelevant to this discussion. A Giffen Good is an essential product which takes up a high proportion of someone's income - thus, as the price falls, s/he can spend less on that, thereby freeing money to spend on competing goods. Having the price of potatoes or rice fall frees up money to spend on meat .... which means the person can purchase fewer potatoes/rice ..... but no one is stupid enough to spend that much of his/her income on camera gear!!

05-15-2018, 01:07 PM	#156
Winder Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Tennessee Posts: 6,617	Originally posted by reh321 The theory behind Giffen Goods is actually quite solid, but they are irrelevant to this discussion. A Giffen Good is an essential product which takes up a high proportion of someone's income - thus, as the price falls, s/he can spend less on that, thereby freeing money to spend on competing goods. Having the price of potatoes or rice fall frees up money to spend on meat .... which means the person can purchase fewer potatoes/rice ..... but no one is stupid enough to spend that much of his/her income on camera gear!! People are saying that Giffen Goods are an exception to the laws of supply and demand, and that is not actually the case. The extreme situations like the Irish Potato Famine are due to high demand and extreme poverty. These are not properties of potatoes, rather conditions of the market at a specific time and location and consumer. What you are describing is not a property of the good in question. It is a condition of the buyer combined with a lack of substitute goods. Under this definition almost any food store could be a Giffen good under the right circumstances. Water would be a Giffen good to people living in Death Valley if they were poor enough. There are no exceptions to the law of supply and demand. The examples people create can all be explained, but we don't always have all the information all the time and the market equilibrium is constantly adjusting as the conditions of the market change.

05-15-2018, 01:08 PM - 4 Likes	#157
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	I guess I don't understand supply/demand theory in situations where supply is basically unlimited. The issue most of the time isn't the supply at this point, is it? It is the cost of the materials/labor/R and D that go into making a product, plus the advertising on top of that, plus transportation to the store where it is sold, plus whatever mark up the store gets, plus whatever percent revenue the maker wants to get on top of it all. In a sense camera pricing is arbitrary, but I have this sense that a lot of companies build to a price. I know Pentax best and so, it was clear to me that when they built the K-1 they built to keep the final price under 2000 dollars. If demand is small, the price tends to go up rather than down because many costs are fixed and R and D is spread over fewer units. That's (at least partly) why cameras like the A9 and D5 are as expensive as they are. But I am not an economist and I didn't even spend last night in a Holiday Inn Express... Last edited by Rondec; 05-15-2018 at 01:46 PM.

05-15-2018, 01:18 PM	#158
RGlasel Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Saskatoon Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 3,228	Originally posted by Rondec But I am not an economist and I didn't even spend last night in a Holiday Inn Express... Brilliant! I'm not an economist either, but I did take several undergraduate courses in economics to get my business degree and I've been selling manufactured goods to businesses since 1990. You are much closer to how manufacturers in the real world price their products and how real end users decide which products to buy than the theoretical economics posts in this thread.

06-01-2018, 02:29 PM	#159
surfar Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: mid nth coast,nsw Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,141	The April figures show more shipments than both 2016 and 2017, mirrorless up 24% over the 2017 figures.I suppose the release of the $$$ony A7 iii might have something to do with that.

06-02-2018, 01:22 AM - 1 Like	#160
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Originally posted by surfar The April figures show more shipments than both 2016 and 2017, mirrorless up 24% over the 2017 figures.I suppose the release of the $$$ony A7 iii might have something to do with that. The average price per unit of shipments to the America's of milc is more then twice that of dslr! That Sony A7iii might be popular.

06-02-2018, 03:10 AM - 1 Like	#161
surfar Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: mid nth coast,nsw Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,141	Originally posted by RonHendriks1966 That Sony A7iii might be popular. Yes, for the people that want an all round device that does most things reasonably well.The 4th generation $$$onys will be hard to beat.

06-02-2018, 09:00 AM	#162
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,178	Originally posted by surfar Yes, for the people that want an all round device that does most things reasonably well.The 4th generation $$$onys will be hard to beat. I'm guessing Nikon users wouldn't agree with you. When the D850 came out, Nikon users declared it to be the "all around camera", and it had waiting lines for several months.

06-02-2018, 10:17 AM	#163
str8talk83 Veteran Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Bluffton, SC Photos: Albums Posts: 674	Originally posted by reh321 I'm guessing Nikon users wouldn't agree with you. When the D850 came out, Nikon users declared it to be the "all around camera", and it had waiting lines for several months. I would agree that the D850 is the best “all around” DSLR available right now. I also feel that the Sony A7r iii basically matches the camera in real world unless there is a need for Nikon’s additional telephoto options. What makes the a7iii special is the price point. It’s also a better “all around” camera to the average shooter that probably doesn’t really need the extra resolution.

06-02-2018, 05:32 PM - 2 Likes	#164
k1man Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: Si Chiang Mai. Nong Khai Province Photos: Albums Posts: 358	Hi guys, been reading this debate with a great deal of boredom, I have most of the stuff I will ever need so it seems irrelevant to continually compare numbers, we should all be out and about taking pics not debating the future which nobody can control, regards Ian

06-02-2018, 06:36 PM - 5 Likes	#165
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,178	Originally posted by k1man Hi guys, been reading this debate with a great deal of boredom, I have most of the stuff I will ever need so it seems irrelevant to continually compare numbers, we should all be out and about taking pics not debating the future which nobody can control, regards Ian Then don't read it. People can talk if they want to - especially right now when enough talk can allow someone to receive a nice new K-1 to take pictures with.