[ChristianRock]

I'm surprised no one commented on this yet...

DSLRs and MILCs are both in trouble with sales down from last year. For over a year now, the percentage of sales has been holding steadily with DLSRs at about 60-65% of the interchangeable cameras market, and MILCs at about 35-40%... except this month, DSLRs are 70% and MILCs are at 30%, probably due to a big shipment of entry-level cameras from Canon. The average should stay around 65-35 in the months to come.

So, the market share seems to be stuck at 65-35 (60-40 in the asian markets), though the new MILCs from Canon and Nikon that are rumored to be launched this year could obviously change that.

The other interesting thing is that the MILC cost per unit has been steadily increasing and the gap to the DSLR per unit cost, which has been lower now for a while, is widening.

My conclusion: It looks like the DSLR still has a lot of life in it... but the ILC camera market could really suffer now in the era of the two-lens cell phones. ILCs are becoming more and more of a specialty tool, and as a niche market I'm sure they will remain - I can't see any wedding photogs or sports photogs or bird enthusiasts doing their jobs on cell phones in the near future...

See February 2018 CIPA Results and Analysis | Canon News

[beholder3]

The question is if mirrorless will be dying out before it even reaches maturity.

It just needs the brain of a ten year old to predict how long DSLMs can continue to hike up prices and sell to less and less customers each year. And to forecast what will then happen to them.

The Japanese market was the forerunner in this and look how it's already collapsing there.

[photoptimist]

LOL! This just goes to show how silly the whole "X is winning" or "Y is dying" click-bait narrative is.


The reality is that consumer choice is winning and narrow-minded beliefs that everyone is going to use one type of product is dying.

[Kunzite]

I guess we didn't hurry to post the new CIPA data because we have nothing against mirrorless' presence on the market.

[photoptimist]

I guess we didn't hurry to post the new CIPA data because we have nothing against mirrorless' presence on the market.

LOL!

I've got nothing against mirrorless (or smartphones, or medium format, or large format, or how ever people want to capture patterns of photons). But the narrow-minded, illogical promotors of one specific architecture who believe that last year's change in marketshare inevitably creates next year's change in marketshare do deserve to get slapped in the face by hard data.

[Kunzite]

You cannot win with them (by 'win' I mean convince them to leave us alone and happy with our DSLRs). Slap them in the face with hard data, and they'll be "but Canon and Nikon are both switching to mirrorless" (a lie, of course, but so is MILCs replacing DSLRs 5 years ago).

[clickclick]

Actually somewhat amusing if you take a step or two back and leave the hyperbole at the door. Different tools for different uses and audiences. Unlikely any of it will "go away", at least not soon. Just shifting markets as technology evolves. After all, some of us still shoot that obsolete film stuff.

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Last edited by clickclick; 04-04-2018 at 09:10 AM.

[Mistral75]

The data:

• Cameras http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201802_e.pdf
• Lenses http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201802_e.pdf

Here below I will compare the shipments in January-February 2018 to those in January-February 2017.

- All digital cameras: -27.4% in units and -9.1% in ¥

- Digital cameras with built-in lens: -40% in units and -32.2% in ¥
- Interchangeable lens cameras: -12.4% in units and -0,02% in ¥

- DSLRs: -8.3% in units and -4.4% in ¥
- MILCs: -9.3% in units and +6.9% in ¥

- Interchangeable lenses: -3.8% in units and +4.2% in ¥

- Lenses for 24x36 and larger format sensors: +13% in units and +13.2% in ¥
- Lenses for sensors smaller than 24x36: -9.8% in units and -5.8% in ¥.

There is nothing there to be happy about.

[Kunzite]

There's nothing to be unhappy about, either.

Production data: in February, DSLRs are showing growth for both units and value (while MILCs are showing a decrease).
For January+February: DSLRs are falling less than MILCs, in units, for both production and shipments (MILCs are growing in value).

I'm still not seeing the ever predicted dramatic shift toward mirrorless.

[clickclick]

There is nothing there to be happy about.

Do we have Pentax numbers specifically? (apologies if I'm overlooking them). My concern is focused on the niche Pentax has carved out. I can see a scenario where the big boys take hits, but Pentax chugs along with their micro-market. Hope that is the case.

[Mistral75]

No, we don't have Pentax numbers specifically. Concerning Pentax, we only have the quarterly sales of the 'Smart Vision' division, which includes Pentax but is not limited to it.

(...)
The sales trend is negative: from ¥20.0 (April-December 2016) to ¥14.9bn ((April-December 2017) i.e. -25.5%.

Quarter after quarter the sales are as follows:

• Q1 (April-June): 2016 = ¥7.8m 2017 = ¥4.3m Trend = -44.9%
• Q2 (July-September): 2016 = ¥6.0m 2017 = ¥5.3m Trend = -11.7%
• Q3 (October-December): 2016 = ¥6.2m 2017 = ¥5.3m Trend = -14.5%

[RonHendriks1966]

Here below I will compare the shipments in January-February 2018 to those in January-February 2017.

- DSLRs: -8.3% in units and -4.4% in ¥
- MILCs: -9.3% in units and +6.9% in ¥

There is nothing there to be happy about.

dslr shipping to Japan was down 16 % in units (1 % up in yen) and since this is the homebase for Pentax, that is no party.

I did a Quick count in one large shop.
Dslr 36 different models
Milc 56 different models

So production runs for these different models can be really low in units.

[ChristianRock]

@Mistral I don't think anyone is happy about the numbers, I don't know where you saw that. I even said that I see the interchangeable lens camera market taking a bigger dive in the age of the two-lens smart phones.

But it also can't be denied that DSLRs are not dead and are not worse off than MILCs as of late. And I also think that the camera maker that positions itself for the niche photography markets that still demand a higher level of quality in larger sensors and purpose built lenses, will continue to be able to do business. In fact, the main MILC niche of small normal lenses might be more at risk than DSLRs which balance better and make more sense with large telephoto or wide angle lenses. I would not be surprised if from now on, MILCs lose more market to phone cameras than DSLRs.

Video will probably be the MILCs niche that is most likely to keep them in business.

[Kunzite]

Yeah, make it into yet another PentaxIsDoomed thread - that's the spirit!

[normhead]

Yeah, make it into yet another PentaxIsDoomed thread - that's the spirit!

What, did somebody say something? My "ignore" filter must have blocked it.