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09-17-2008, 02:28 PM   #1
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Good, bad, indifferent.

Just thought I'd carry over some "news" from the other forum for people to ponder.
A news report of today's The Nikkei seems to add a little more information to the subject of DSLRs.
* Hoya intends to grow DSLR volumes by 49 per cent
* Compact volumes expected to decline by 22 per cent


TOKYO (Nikkei)--Hoya Corp. (7741) will shift the remnants of its Japanese digital camera production abroad within the current fiscal year to improve its cost competitiveness.

> The company inherited its last domestic production facility, a plant in Mashiko,

Tochigi Prefecture, through its absorption of Pentax Corp. in March. By next March, Hoya will relocate the plant's lens operations to Vietnam and its production of midsize and large cameras to the Philippines.

> Hoya aims to sell 520,000 SLR cameras in the year through March 2009, an increase of 49% from fiscal 2007. Sales of pocket-size models are projected to
fall 22% to 2 million units. The company has not issued a profit forecast for its camera division, but it said the business swung to an operating loss in the April-June quarter.
> (The Nikkei Thursday morning edition)
> -0- Sep/17/2008 18:30 GMT

(For the full article, you will have to subscribe)

DSLR sales projected to grow 49 per cent: News Discussion Forum: Digital Photography Review


I do find it a bit disturbing that Pentax only sold 349,000ish DSLR's last year (March 07-March 08)... (sorry was thinking at 2x for some reason. Still that's 2 models)
I also find it interesting that Hoya plans to accelerate the release of new models. Their definition of "accelerate" seems to be different from mine.........
Must admit that apparently designing/building cameras is not that easy... I have yet to figure out why


Last edited by jeffkrol; 09-17-2008 at 03:08 PM. Reason: BAD ECONOMIC MATH
09-17-2008, 02:40 PM   #2
cyg
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Just thought I'd carry over some "news" from the other forum for people to ponder.
A news report of today's The Nikkei seems to add a little more information to the subject of DSLRs.
* Hoya intends to grow DSLR volumes by 49 per cent
* Compact volumes expected to decline by 22 per cent


I do find it a bit disturbing that Pentax only sold 260,000 DSLR's last year...
If they want it to grow 49% to 520,000, it means they start from around 350,000 (not 260,000). Not sure 350,000 is large by DSLR standard, though.
09-17-2008, 02:53 PM   #3
Busiko
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Just thought I'd carry over some "news" from the other forum for people to ponder.
A news report of today's The Nikkei seems to add a little more information to the subject of DSLRs.
* Hoya intends to grow DSLR volumes by 49 per cent
* Compact volumes expected to decline by 22 per cent


TOKYO (Nikkei)--Hoya Corp. (7741) will shift the remnants of its Japanese digital camera production abroad within the current fiscal year to improve its cost competitiveness.

> The company inherited its last domestic production facility, a plant in Mashiko,

Tochigi Prefecture, through its absorption of Pentax Corp. in March. By next March, Hoya will relocate the plant's lens operations to Vietnam and its production of midsize and large cameras to the Philippines.

> Hoya aims to sell 520,000 SLR cameras in the year through March 2009, an increase of 49% from fiscal 2007. Sales of pocket-size models are projected to
fall 22% to 2 million units. The company has not issued a profit forecast for its camera division, but it said the business swung to an operating loss in the April-June quarter.
> (The Nikkei Thursday morning edition)
> -0- Sep/17/2008 18:30 GMT

(For the full article, you will have to subscribe)

DSLR sales projected to grow 49 per cent: News Discussion Forum: Digital Photography Review

I do find it a bit disturbing that Pentax only sold 260,000 DSLR's last year...
I also find it interesting that Hoya plans to accelerate the release of new models. Their definition of "accelerate" seems to be different from mine.........
Must admit that apparently designing/building cameras is not that easy... I have yet to figure out why
They plan to sell 49% more. It means to sell 171000 more than last year. They sold 349000 cameras not 260000

Base = plan / 1.49,
base = 520000/1.49 = 349000

And that relative to the last two quarters of the fiscal year.

Last edited by Busiko; 09-17-2008 at 02:55 PM. Reason: cyg was quicker posting.
09-17-2008, 03:48 PM   #4
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Does that mean Hoya won't be selling off Pentax Imaging?

Le gasp.

09-17-2008, 05:01 PM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by ftpaddict Quote
Does that mean Hoya won't be selling off Pentax Imaging?

Le gasp.
I dont know but it means we should see a lot more marketing and new products
09-17-2008, 05:12 PM   #6
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I wouldn't mind Pentax being bought by Samsung :P
09-17-2008, 05:18 PM   #7
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I prepared to wait and see. That's really all we can do. I am excited to see what happens here in the next few weeks though.
09-17-2008, 06:49 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by cyg Quote
If they want it to grow 49% to 520,000, it means they start from around 350,000 (not 260,000). Not sure 350,000 is large by DSLR standard, though.
Some numbers for comparison: One thing to keep in mind is cameras SHIPPED is not cameras SOLD. Subtle but important difference I'm told.


This is a miniscule number compared to the majors. Canon alone for 2008 projected DSLR sales of 4.4 million in January. Nikon was planning to ship 3 million DSLR's and 4 million lenses in the FY ended 3/2008.
Here's a graphic of all digital units shipped;

Canon loses SLR share, as Nikon surges | Underexposed - CNET News

Canon sold 3.18 million single-lens reflex cameras in 2007 compared with Nikon's 2.98 million, according to a study released Tuesday by market researcher IDC.

In the total camera market (graphic on the link), Canon's 18.8 percent share of units shipped gave it the top rank. Next in line are Sony with 16 percent, Kodak with 9.6 percent, Samsung with 9 percent, Nikon with 8.4 percent, and Olympus with 8.3 percent.

: DSLR CAMERAS ONLINE... ...s-canon-targets-195-percent-rise.html
(Jan 2008)

http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/bto/20080402/idc_2007_camera_market_share_cropped.PNG

09-17-2008, 07:26 PM   #9
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Thanks for the links.
There are at least two interesting pieces of info in that article:

- Based on the 350,000 number, Pentax' share is a bit below 5%
- The SLR market has been growing 41% last year, so an increase of 49% is barely keeping up with the growth!
09-17-2008, 08:51 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote

I do find it a bit disturbing that Pentax only sold 349,000ish DSLR's last year (March 07-March 08)... (sorry was thinking at 2x for some reason. Still that's 2 models)
I also find it interesting that Hoya plans to accelerate the release of new models. Their definition of "accelerate" seems to be different from mine.........
Must admit that apparently designing/building cameras is not that easy... I have yet to figure out why
The numbers are much better than I expected. The 07 figure exceeds what Pentax forecasted. At numbers this low it's not a matter of gaining market share but more about percentage growth large enough to be profitable. Fiscal year 06 the DLSR segment made somewhere around a 5% profit. With this sort of growth and the improved operating procedures Hoya instituted it would be logical to think that segment of the business is nearing the 10% profit point Hoya was asking for.

I am amazed they were able to reach these numbers with just 2 models. My bet is this volume bought Pentax another 12 months to see if they can reach the 520,000 unit level. I've been less than optomistic about Hoya keeping Pentax but this report has changed my thinking. If they stay on projection we just may see new bodies much faster than I thought.

Regards,
09-18-2008, 04:45 AM   #11
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My concern is: what happens if they don't meet this ambitious target?
09-18-2008, 05:42 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by mattdm Quote
My concern is: what happens if they don't meet this ambitious target?
Can we all say Samsung?

The fact the price of both the K200D and K20D has not been reduced that much is a fairly good indicator they are meeting goal. Not reinstating the rebate is more evidence of them being on plan.

My guess is the new model to be introduced next week will be a "Me too" entry level unit to help them reach the number. Nothing flashy, maybe a new bell or whistle that sets it apart, but no big surprises. Both Pentax and Hoya seem to like to hold their cards close to the vest so there might not be any announcements about future developments. If that's the case we are in for another 6 months of "What Pentax needs to do" threads.

I'm not happy about this slow and easy approach but it does give me reason to hang onto my Pentax glass and waiting another 6 months for something that will give me the AF speed and low light focusing I want.

Regards,
09-18-2008, 05:53 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
The fact the price of both the K200D and K20D has not been reduced that much is a fairly good indicator they are meeting goal. Not reinstating the rebate is more evidence of them being on plan.
The price has dropped by over 300 euros here in Romania. That's quite a bit for a relatively recent product.
09-18-2008, 06:22 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote

This is a miniscule number compared to the majors. Canon alone for 2008 projected DSLR sales of 4.4 million in January. Nikon was planning to ship 3 million DSLR's and 4 million lenses in the FY ended 3/2008.
Here's a graphic of all digital units shipped;
Pentax IS minuscule in respect to Canon, so the 520.000 units is not that bad... it means only one thing: gaining profitability.

If they can manage this, and an entry level model in christmas season can get it, the dark age of *ist will be finally gone [no offense to *ist owners, i'm talking about marketing].
09-18-2008, 06:35 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by zntgrg Quote
Pentax IS minuscule in respect to Canon, so the 520.000 units is not that bad... it means only one thing: gaining profitability.

If they can manage this, and an entry level model in christmas season can get it, the dark age of *ist will be finally gone [no offense to *ist owners, i'm talking about marketing].
dark age of *ist? Because their marketing was good before?

Pentax always had nice technologies/particularities which they never marketed.
Remember the marketing tornado because the new AF-D Nikkor lenses were reporting distance information to the camera? Well Pentax did it long before.

What Pentax did not however (stupidly) was to use that info for others uses than TTL Flash. But lenses starting from FA (or was it F?) could do this.
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