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10-20-2018, 03:15 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
D1N0.

The sig tag here says FF IS HERE. It used to say FF IS COMING.

No one ever knows (or can say, if they do) everything, but many people have insights. Nothing is certain, especially as close to the vest as Pentax plays. I think it is important not to hang my wishes and desires on any one desired outcome because I am highly likely to be disappointed if I do. Over the years I’ve learned to be happy with what I have and what Pentax releases. If I am unhappy the only alternative is Canon, Nikon or Sony, because Pentax will never be them.

Given the recently released D FA*50/1.4, the announced DA*11~18/2.8, the rumored D FA*85/1.4, the hinted *35/1.4 and the roadmap, I think it unlikely Pentax will release ANY camera that is below the standard of those lenses. My guess is they’re completely re-engineering the entire platform from the ground up, perhaps to use an image sensor and image processor from different manufacturers. Doing that would require completely recoding core logic (abandoning SocioNext and SAFOX altogether, doing video right and starting fresh on AF logic, plus a new AF sensor - or even on-sensor PDAF, for instance). That takes time and money, and a FF probably has a much higher per unit margin than APSc, so the new tech might be released in new FF’s first to recover development costs faster.

Looking at the past, eventually Pentax has released lower APSc and also 645 cameras with newly developed tech inside because the additional unit volume spreads the cost, but the unit margin on APSc is lower. This happened with the K-7 and K-3 (645D and 645z*) and goes back to the film versions of MF cameras. It makes a sort of business sense that such a small company would develop an APSc flagship after a flagship (or two*) FF is released because FF is now the flagship camera. That’s the way they’ve always done things.

Pentax told us for years they were studying the FF market - then suddenly they were actually developing the K-1. Now they’re telling us they’re studying MF and looking at or beginning development of an APSc flagship. In the past that kind of language has meant in Pentax speak, “Maybe, Probably, but not Now.”

If asahi man and D1N0 and others are hinting FF is the current priority and APSc and 645 are later - APSc and 645 are probably later. Be patient.

Just my humble, speculative opinion.

OBTW LX is Roman Numerals for 60; the LX was released around the 60th Anniversary. Could there be a K-1C?

* On another thread someone wrote, “645C.” C is Roman Numerals for 100, as in Centennial.
** Is there a FF 645 sensor available? Does a new 35mm FF and a new 645 FF = 2 FF SLR’s?

My completely unfounded speculation is as valid as anyone else’s completely unfounded speculation - and worth the same 2c - since I know nothing.

.:
I think everyone is clear that full frame is currently the priority. I guess the question is whether Pentax could be working on an APS-C camera using the same tech concurrently with the full frame project (s). My guess would be yes.

Probably the biggest thing is that Pentax needs a new image processor. PRIME is getting pretty old and they are probably held up by that. There was rumor about Samsung selling Pentax full frame sensors along with a processor. That would certainly be a way forward and I am sure that if Pentax was interested, Samsung would supply APS-C sensors as well.

Regardless, there are plenty of people who know a lot more about things than I do, but I think Ricoh Japan keeps cards close to the vest and Pentax subsidiaries elsewhere don't always know everything they are working on till it is close to release.

10-20-2018, 03:27 AM - 3 Likes   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
How could you possibly know?
Not a word was said about such camera on Photokina. They showed a GR III that wasn't ready though. Why not show a K-3 II successor like they did the K-1? After the KP came out they said they were researching a K-3 II successor. At cp+ they said they were working on it while they had just discontinued the K-3 II. They should have had it ready or made a K-3 III with less significant update (denoising processor, improved AF algorithms). But they didn't. I think they do not know what direction to go with aps-c. a flagship aps-c model is expensive to develop. Because there is now full frame it has to compete with the K-1, so they will sell much less. I think the focus is now on the K-1 successors A high megapixel landscapers camera and a fast 24mp variant to cover different enthusiast needs. Enthusiasts are the main target audience now that entry level gets taken over by smartphones. The KP was an attempt to attract a certain type of enthusiast shooter that wants a more compact system. But Ricoh can't really compete with Fujifilm or Canon in that market, because mirrorless is always going to be more compact. Aps-c has become difficult for Ricoh. They want to keep those people on board so they put this lens on the roadmap, but I think they want to draw as many people as possible into full frame. After they saw the success of the K-1 they have refocussed and moved forward the development of the next model. The K-1 is the true successor of the K-3 line. They just never told us.
10-20-2018, 03:27 AM - 2 Likes   #153
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Plans change all the time. There is no certainty at all to be gotten from "but there is a DA*11-18 on the roadmap for 2019", or "but what about "now starting to develop a DSLR that can be positioned as a K3 successor". The current tide is for FullFrame and against APSC and MF. The DA*11-18 will fit very nicely on the KP or older K3II. So anyone wanting that lens has cameras to use it on. The plan to develop this lens surely originated a few years ago at least, so releasing it says nothing at all about a new APSC camera, let alone flagship camera.
It's best to look at Pentax with a looser view. Surely a new APSC body will come one day, but when nobody knows. The few snippets of "inside info" consistently point in one direction: Pentax is heavily prioritizing FF camera(s) and lenses.
Such are the bare facts.

Chris
10-20-2018, 03:47 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by D1N0 Quote
Not a word was said about such camera on Photokina. They showed a GR III that wasn't ready though. Why not show a K-3 II successor like they did the K-1? After the KP came out they said they were researching a K-3 II successor. At cp+ they said they were working on it while they had just discontinued the K-3 II. They should have had it ready or made a K-3 III with less significant update (denoising processor, improved AF algorithms). But they didn't. I think they do not know what direction to go with aps-c. a flagship aps-c model is expensive to develop. Because there is now full frame it has to compete with the K-1, so they will sell much less. I think the focus is now on the K-1 successors A high megapixel landscapers camera and a fast 24mp variant to cover different enthusiast needs. Enthusiasts are the main target audience now that entry level gets taken over by smartphones. The KP was an attempt to attract a certain type of enthusiast shooter that wants a more compact system. But Ricoh can't really compete with Fujifilm or Canon in that market, because mirrorless is always going to be more compact. Aps-c has become difficult for Ricoh. They want to keep those people on board so they put this lens on the roadmap, but I think they want to draw as many people as possible into full frame. After they saw the success of the K-1 they have refocussed and moved forward the development of the next model. The K-1 is the true successor of the K-3 line. They just never told us.
So I was right and you don't know.

No offense, but all the above is pure speculation. And part of it is contrary to what they said.
At this Photokina, Ricoh Imaging didn't present anything Pentax besides what was already on the market (even the D FA* 50mm, of course - I had mine on my bag). For some reason (which might have to do with the organizers), they chose to have a minimal presence there. Not even the DA* 11-18mm, previously displayed in a prototype form; not that they had much room for it.
Should we believe they ceased everything Pentax? Of course not, that would be silly. The logical conclusion is: they didn't show what they're working on. The logical follow-up is that assuming no APS-C flagship will come because they didn't show one is deeply flawed. Assuming they should've had something ready is even worse.

---------- Post added 20-10-18 at 01:53 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
Plans change all the time. There is no certainty at all to be gotten from "but there is a DA*11-18 on the roadmap for 2019", or "but what about "now starting to develop a DSLR that can be positioned as a K3 successor". The current tide is for FullFrame and against APSC and MF. The DA*11-18 will fit very nicely on the KP or older K3II. So anyone wanting that lens has cameras to use it on. The plan to develop this lens surely originated a few years ago at least, so releasing it says nothing at all about a new APSC camera, let alone flagship camera.
It's best to look at Pentax with a looser view. Surely a new APSC body will come one day, but when nobody knows. The few snippets of "inside info" consistently point in one direction: Pentax is heavily prioritizing FF camera(s) and lenses.
Such are the bare facts.

Chris
Chris, plans don't change all the time - if they did, nobody would ever do anything.
Plans do change often, but right now there is no indication their plans for APS-C changed one bit. Until you can prove otherwise (not that you weren't trying!), this document is still valid:
http://www.ricoh-imaging.co.jp/japan/products/lens/images/K_Mount_Lens.pdf

Mr. Takashi Arai speaking beats second hand "inside info" reinterpreted and misinterpreted on forums. Actually asahiman's posts should be interpreted in the light of such official information, not against it.

10-20-2018, 03:55 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
So I was right and you don't know.No offense, but all the above is pure speculation.
I value my speculation more than yours. I didn't say it will not come. I said it will not come anytime soon. Also I do not think it will be in line with the K-7/K-5/K-3 line. What it will be if it comes will depend on the market. It may even be mirrorless for all I know.
10-20-2018, 04:04 AM   #156
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I'm not speculating about when it will come, though. Instead, I'm waiting for more information.
10-20-2018, 04:30 AM - 1 Like   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm not speculating about when it will come, though. Instead, I'm waiting for more information.
Then what are you doing in the rumors thread? Are you fighting the rumors mills Don Kunzite?

10-20-2018, 04:33 AM - 1 Like   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
So? I knew the FF was coming since October 2012; it was public information.
No offense, but in this instance I'm asked to believe someone saying something on Facebook. And by someone and something I mean exactly that: I don't know who, I don't know what.

This isn't an attack on D1N0, just presenting how things looks like from here. If he has some stronger information, he's welcome to share it.
Knew is an imprecise word.

Jim Malcolm once told me internal wags at Sony said the letters stand for Sure. Only Not Yet. That’s the way I think of a Pentax APSc flagship.
10-20-2018, 05:30 AM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by D1N0 Quote
Then what are you doing in the rumors thread? Are you fighting the rumors mills Don Kunzite?
Just said it - waiting for information.
Indeed, this is the Pentax News and Rumors section, not the baseless speculation section.

---------- Post added 20-10-18 at 03:31 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Knew is an imprecise word.
Imprecise indeed, when we don't even have a link to that Facebook post.
And should I take something like that, against Mr. Arai saying they are developing a successor of the K-3 series?
10-20-2018, 05:49 AM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Imprecise indeed, when we don't even have a link to that Facebook post.
And should I take something like that, against Mr. Arai saying they are developing a successor of the K-3 series?
Sure. Only Not Yet?

FF’s first, then K-3 successor later, is consistent with all statements and hints. I plan to take things as they come. I neither hope nor despair. I use what I have and have what I use. My Accelerator co-processor is in my KP, not a K-1 ll. AF meets my needs unfailingly because I don’t shoot sports with Pentax. I don’t need video better than my phone. I don’t need to see exposure changes in my viewfinder and I don’t need focus peaking hand held.

I need nothing new right now. I’m just looking at what Pentax has done with technology and new camera introductions for decades and inferring they probably haven’t changed - except K-1 and it’s successors are probably the flagship camera and APSc is probably something else. Maybe APSc will develop as a specialty birding / wildlife platform. Maybe a KP line plus the DA Limited pancakes becomes a high quality small landscape platform.

Sure. Only (maybe) Not Yet.
10-20-2018, 05:52 AM   #161
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"We are now developing" doesn't promise an immediate release, but it is not an unspecified future. The DA* 11-18mm f/2.8 on the roadmap with a planned 2019 release is not an unspecified future. Yes, Pentax is concentrating on the FF but not everything; and there's the medium format, too.
I plan to take things as they come too. As I said, I'm not speculating on the release date because I truly don't know - and guessing doesn't work.
10-20-2018, 06:24 AM - 2 Likes   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by D1N0 Quote
I value my speculation more than yours. I didn't say it will not come. I said it will not come anytime soon. Also I do not think it will be in line with the K-7/K-5/K-3 line. What it will be if it comes will depend on the market. It may even be mirrorless for all I know.
Speculation? So you don't actually have any more information than anyone else posting on this thread?

Who wouldn't value their own "speculation" over other posters "speculation"? What an absurd statement. It would be nice if you could give us your reasoning behind why your speculation is correct and everyone else's speculation is wrong. Why not preface your speculation with "in my opinion"? You speak as if you are in the know when in fact you, like we all, don't really know what is going on inside Pentax .

I think my speculation as well as anyone else posting on this thread is just as valid as yours.
10-20-2018, 06:28 AM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Sure. Only Not Yet?

FF’s first, then K-3 successor later, is consistent with all statements and hints. I plan to take things as they come. I neither hope nor despair. I use what I have and have what I use. My Accelerator co-processor is in my KP, not a K-1 ll. AF meets my needs unfailingly because I don’t shoot sports with Pentax. I don’t need video better than my phone. I don’t need to see exposure changes in my viewfinder and I don’t need focus peaking hand held.

I need nothing new right now. I’m just looking at what Pentax has done with technology and new camera introductions for decades and inferring they probably haven’t changed - except K-1 and it’s successors are probably the flagship camera and APSc is probably something else. Maybe APSc will develop as a specialty birding / wildlife platform. Maybe a KP line plus the DA Limited pancakes becomes a high quality small landscape platform.

Sure. Only (maybe) Not Yet.
If there is a problem, it is that Ricoh hasn't released anything for quite awhile from an APS-C stand point. The last was the K-P which was announced on January 25,2017. That means it will be two years old next year. And the K70 is older yet. I don't see Pentax wanting to match up with the D500s of this world, but certainly they need something a bit newer in the APS-C line up for next year. It might not come out till middle to end of the year, but I still expect to see something for the APS-C folks.
10-20-2018, 06:49 AM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
So I was right and you don't know.

No offense, but all the above is pure speculation. And part of it is contrary to what they said.
At this Photokina, Ricoh Imaging didn't present anything Pentax besides what was already on the market (even the D FA* 50mm, of course - I had mine on my bag). For some reason (which might have to do with the organizers), they chose to have a minimal presence there. Not even the DA* 11-18mm, previously displayed in a prototype form; not that they had much room for it.
Should we believe they ceased everything Pentax? Of course not, that would be silly. The logical conclusion is: they didn't show what they're working on. The logical follow-up is that assuming no APS-C flagship will come because they didn't show one is deeply flawed. Assuming they should've had something ready is even worse.

---------- Post added 20-10-18 at 01:53 PM ----------


Chris, plans don't change all the time - if they did, nobody would ever do anything.
Plans do change often, but right now there is no indication their plans for APS-C changed one bit. Until you can prove otherwise (not that you weren't trying!), this document is still valid:
http://www.ricoh-imaging.co.jp/japan/products/lens/images/K_Mount_Lens.pdf

Mr. Takashi Arai speaking beats second hand "inside info" reinterpreted and misinterpreted on forums. Actually asahiman's posts should be interpreted in the light of such official information, not against it.
Again, I don't like speculation. I like bare "facts", or what come close to bare facts. I don't like statements such as:"but the DA*11-18mm on the roadmap must mean that a new APSC flagship (aka K3 successor) is on the way". In that way you are trying to bend things around to come to a conclusion that is completely unfounded speculation. The DA*11-18 fits perfectly on the KP to start with. You might as well interpret the rumored FF TC's being in development as a sure sign that Pentax must be working on a 500mm f4 lens.
The only support for a new APSC camera coming some time in the future was the statement at CP+ about "now starting to develop a DSLR that can be positioned as a K3 successor" and that statement was enthousiatically ignored again when asked after at Photokina. I don't give a dime for a statement like that meaning that an APSC flagship is around the corner. That is called wishful thinking.
The "facts" such as supplied by the very sparse inside info, are positive on full frame bodies and lenses being in development right now, and negative when asked how about an new APSC body?
Multiple times already asahiman stated that full frame is in development (in two classes), but when I ask him directly in a response to his posts :"how about a new APSC body on the way?" he goes totally quiet again. It is not just asahiman, it is also the disappearance of the K3II from the shops, the repeated commitment on Pentax side on the need to build a full frame line-up.
So omitting bending the facts and vague statements, my bare and rational conclusion is, again: full frame on the way, APSC uncertain. There is nothing more at present as I can see it, and anyone will have to do his or her own calculations.

Chris
10-20-2018, 07:22 AM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
If there is a problem, it is that Ricoh hasn't released anything for quite awhile from an APS-C stand point. The last was the K-P which was announced on January 25,2017. That means it will be two years old next year. And the K70 is older yet. I don't see Pentax wanting to match up with the D500s of this world, but certainly they need something a bit newer in the APS-C line up for next year. It might not come out till middle to end of the year, but I still expect to see something for the APS-C folks.
I guess I expect something also, but not ready for launch at CP+. If there is a technology evolution in the next camera(s), not having a later APSc release containing the new tech would be a departure.
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