[thibs]

Well, this is a rumor and should be treated as such. However, I've had a look a this person's Twitter thread and I don't think what is said should be dismissed out of hand.

- If you go back, you can see this person likes to speculate about what Pentax might do. It is normally presented as pure speculation and not "I know something"
- D850&K-1MarkⅡ says he went to the Pentax 100 event and shows images from it. This event was all afternoon and in the evening there was a chance to socialize with the Ricoh Imaging staff. So he probably did have a chance to speak to them directly.
- D850&K-1MarkⅡ's phrasing since then is more like "I heard from someone" - more definite than before.

In addition there are some points that echo what I heard at the Kimio Tanaka presentation at CP+ earlier this year.
- When the Ricoh interviewee was asked about the 70-200/4 he looked very dejected. I don't remember what he said exactly, but it sounded like it had been pushed right back and he didn't want to talk about it.
- Tanaka-san mentioned that a new Aerobright 3 coating is coming, much to the apparent surprise of the Ricoh managers present. He didn't mention it on subsequent days, so perhaps they told him to stop talking about it. Now D850&K-1MarkⅡ is saying that the 85/1.4 may have a new coating.

There is at least some identifiable thread back to Ricoh with these tweets. People take other rumor starters more seriously with no visible thread at all.

Many thanks for taking the time.

[Serkevan]

I hope it comes out before I'm *dead*.

That depends on your habits. Eat vegetables, exercise regularly, drink plenty of water and you have a shot at it

Jokes aside, It's a bummer but let's see. There has been no update to the roadmap as far as I know -it can STILL come out in 2019- and a bit less than a year of waiting is hardly going to flip our photography needs on their heads or make our lenses obsolete. Heck, the last couple days I have been enjoying my newly-acquired Tokina AF 70-210mm f/4.5, which is relatively light (~600 g), sized like a beer can and sharp enough if I don't mess up. Can't complain for 40 bucks (and shipping from the UK was half of that...). Now to find a 55 mm hood for this "Discontinued in 1994" lens...

[Mistral75]

Ricoh aren't doing that bad. They have released three lenses since the beginning of 2019, which is comparable to what their peers have done:

• Canon: four
• Fujifilm: two
• Leica: two
• Nikon: four (plus three announced and not released yet)
• Olympus: one (plus a converter)
• Panasonic: three (plus one announced ans not released yet)
• Sony: six.

[fs999]

I want a DFA 100mm F2.0 !

[Rondec]

For whatever reason I find the aerobright 3 hints pretty interesting. It's just that their current coatings are so good I'm not sure how much better they can get. It still feels like they have some of the best coatings in the industry and they are still working on things, which is great.

That's not *quite* the only option...

... One option is that we can wait *impatiently*. I've been increasingly doing that since they changed their roadmap release date from "Spring 2019" to the vague and open-ended "2019 or later". Before that I was waiting patiently.

... Or we can stop waiting completely and simply leave Pentax for greener fields where we can actually get the FF lenses we need or really want for the photography we love to do.

I hope it comes out before I'm *dead*.

I hope you don't have a terminal illness, but if you do, maybe Make a Wish Foundation could get you an advanced copy. Otherwise I suppose you are like the rest of us and will have to wait on any delays. It isn't unusual for Pentax lenses to be delayed several months or even a year, but my experience is that they are worth it when they arrive.

But here's hoping your health holds up awhile longer.

[BarneyL]

Ricoh aren't doing that bad. They have released three lenses since the beginning of 2019, which is comparable to what their peers have done:

• Canon: four
• Fujifilm: two
• Leica: two
• Nikon: four (plus three announced and not released yet)
• Olympus: one (plus a converter)
• Panasonic: three (plus one announced ans not released yet)
• Sony: six.

Not sure if old lenses with new coatings and slightly different housings should count in this comparison.

[Mistral75]

Why not? They are new lenses with a difference optical and sometimes mechanical(*) performance proposed at a different price point, so...

(*) e.g. the detachable hood of the HD Pentax-DA Fish-Eye 10-17mm f/3.5-4.5 ED

[Mistral75]

For whatever reason I find the aerobright 3 hints pretty interesting. It's just that their current coatings are so good I'm not sure how much better they can get. It still feels like they have some of the best coatings in the industry and they are still working on things, which is great.

(...)

Since the Super- then Super-Multi-Coated Takumar era coatings have always been a strong point of Asahi Optical / Pentax / Ricoh Imaging.

It's been both a blessing and a curse for Asahi Optical since the licence fees paid by competitors both ensured their profitability and made them rest on their laurels. When the SMC patents became public domain, the sleeping beauty had to cope with the loss of revenue and income and never completely recovered.

[Serkevan]

Ricoh aren't doing that bad. They have released three lenses since the beginning of 2019, which is comparable to what their peers have done:

• Canon: four
• Fujifilm: two
• Leica: two
• Nikon: four (plus three announced and not released yet)
• Olympus: one (plus a converter)
• Panasonic: three (plus one announced ans not released yet)
• Sony: six.

Something something "refreshes do not count". As you pointed out, they are different enough*. I am not worried, considering that financially speaking Ricoh Imaging seems pretty healthy. Slow and steady with excellent output works for me.

*The HD coating truly works wonderfully, from what I've seen in the DFA 28-105.

[Mistral75]

(...) I am not worried, considering that financially speaking Ricoh Imaging seems pretty healthy. (...)

I wouldn't go that far. Currently profitable yes, thank you Ricoh Theta and GR III, but there are no figures for the Pentax business.

Just look at where the development money is going to (new Theta plug-ins and multiple Theta firmware and app updates) and you'll get a good indication on where the money is coming from.

[Erictator]

I wouldn't go that far. Currently profitable yes, thank you Ricoh Theta and GR III, but there are no figures for the Pentax business.

Just look at where the development money is going to (new Theta plug-ins and multiple Theta firmware and app updates) and you'll get a good indication on where the money is coming from.

Some retailers make their nut on certain holidays for the lions share of yearly income. I'm sure camera makers have similar cycles. They haven't released a DSLR lately, but they did release the Theta and GRIII, so that is where the books show the money coming from, and going. I'd like to believe once they release the K3-new successfully, the books will reflect a new story. It is just business as usual if you ask me. (I hope)
Eric

[Serkevan]

I wouldn't go that far. Currently profitable yes, thank you Ricoh Theta and GR III, but there are no figures for the Pentax business.

Just look at where the development money is going to (new Theta plug-ins and multiple Theta firmware and app updates) and you'll get a good indication on where the money is coming from.

True, but there is also no indication about the non-Pentax business. It wouldn't be the first time that a company moves profits from a division to another that might need more "initial" investment. The Theta plugins and firmware are not necessarily coming from a huge team of people anyway.

I honestly don't think we will be able to say anything about the health of Pentax as a business, not while Ricoh doesn't disclose the details. I still prefer to be cautiously optimistic and think "que será será".

[Mistral75]

Some retailers make their nut on certain holidays for the lions share of yearly income. I'm sure camera makers have similar cycles. They haven't released a DSLR lately, but they did release the Theta and GRIII, so that is where the books show the money coming from, and going. I'd like to believe once they release the K3-new successfully, the books will reflect a new story. It is just business as usual if you ask me. (I hope)
Eric

You are mixing up two things: the seasonality in sales and the bulk of the sales (and profits) allegedly coming from the most recently announced products.

Seasonality exists in the camera business but it doesn't make a specific product more profitable than others.

The decline in sales during product life exists too and you're right, the K-New will definitely make more sales than the discontinued K-3 II currently is . However, it's an expensive product and, as such, more a halo product than a best seller. Remember that the average DSLR shipping price during the first eight months of 2019 was ¥39,465, i.e. around $365 (source: CIPA).

[Mistral75]

True, but there is also no indication about the non-Pentax business. (...)

There are no figures but there are indications/hints. On the page of the presentation of the 'Consolidated Results for Three Months Ended June 30, 2019' dedicated to the 'Other' segment, one can read 'Smart Vision business revenues and earnings both up, reflecting brisk demands for new models' and see three pictures: 'RICOH THETA Z1 360° camera', 'RICOH GR III high-end compact digital camera' and 'World’s first laser scanning automotive head-up display'. In the comments, one can read 'Another performance contributor was the camera business, whose profits improved. We have received numerous orders for the GRIII digital camera, which we released at the end of fiscal 2018, and the THETA Z1 camera, which we brought out in May.'. No word nor picture concerning the HD Pentax-DA★ 11-18mm f/2.8 ED DC AW.

For FY2018, three pictures again: 'Vehicular stereo camera', 'THETA Z1' and 'GR III'. No word nor picture concerning the K-1 Mark II or the HD Pentax-D FA★ 50mm f/1.4 SDM AW.

For Q1, Q2 and Q3 of FY2018, the picture of a Ricoh Theta. No word nor picture concerning any Pentax product. And so on and so forth.

(...) It wouldn't be the first time that a company moves profits from a division to another that might need more "initial" investment. (...))

There is no need for them to do that: Pentax-branded cameras, lens and accessories, Ricoh-branded cameras and accessories and Theta products are in the same division, called Smart Vision.

(...) The Theta plugins and firmware are not necessarily coming from a huge team of people anyway.

(...)

May be, may be not but why would it be different for cameras? Have we seen as many camera firmware updates, camera apps or camera plug-ins? The answer is no.

(;;

I honestly don't think we will be able to say anything about the health of Pentax as a business, not while Ricoh doesn't disclose the details. I still prefer to be cautiously optimistic and think "que será será".

Indeed but let's hope that we will be able to see the future of the Pentax brand.

[Erictator]

You are mixing up two things: the seasonality in sales and the bulk of the sales (and profits) allegedly coming from the most recently announced products.

Seasonality exists in the camera business but it doesn't make a specific product more profitable than others.

The decline in sales during product life exists too and you're right, the K-New will definitely make more sales than the discontinued K-3 II currently is . However, it's an expensive product and, as such, more a halo product than a best seller. Remember that the average DSLR shipping price during the first eight months of 2019 was ¥39,465, i.e. around $365 (source: CIPA).

True, but I made the comparison knowingly and intentionally, it wasn't that far of a stretch. That said, I think there are multiple tiers of buyers, all with different budgets, needs and mind sets:

1) Waiting for K3-new, will pre-order and pay premium price
2) " " will wait for actual stock, and order if no cataclysmic problems/re-calls noted by those that pre-ordered and if good reviews.
3)" " will wait for price to come down for or promo/bundle discounts
4) " " but will buy heavily discounted remaining inventory of K3-old
5) " " but will watch the classifieds here and buy early adopters old K3-old
6)" " but will wait to buy second hand K3-new when they start to appear

Either way, it is a WIN FOR RICOH that buyers with expendable cash are waiting to do SOMETHING with it towards a Pentax product, even if shopping for deals on the close-out models or in the second hand market, which still keeps them in the Ricoh column for buying accessories and talking up the product and NOT spending money with their competitors.

I guess I am still old school, and think that excitement breeds sales, like the old car slogan "what wins on Sunday sells on Monday"... I think it still holds true across multiple markets.
Eric