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03-01-2019, 03:15 AM   #376
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QuoteOriginally posted by edri Quote
Pentax says it will be worth the wait until 2020 for the new camera. (...)
That's mainly marketing talk. They couldn't say the contrary, could they?

03-01-2019, 03:16 AM - 1 Like   #377
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QuoteOriginally posted by edri Quote
OK, so be it, but they should give some clues as well.
Yes, HELLO!!! they would give some clue to customers, why not given hint of the product they intent to release, as well as giving clues to competitors to make sure competitors know what Ricoh are going to release. Did Canon ever told their customers in 2017 that they were going to release the EOS R end of 2018? Nope, Canon leaked that they were going to release a mirrorless system 3 weeks before they officially announced the release.
03-01-2019, 03:19 AM - 1 Like   #378
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I think the main reason for no new dslr body coming soon is the enourmous decline in sales. Cipa just put out their januari figures and it is going down like there is no tomorrow. Especially shipments of dslr to Japan is down to half of what it was one year ago. So Pentax probably shipped less then 1000 camera's to their own home market in januari. That doesn't support an extra model like K-3iii, but also is not enough to hold the current line of three models (K-70, KP and K-1ii).

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201901_e.pdf
03-01-2019, 03:32 AM   #379
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I think the main reason for no new dslr body coming soon is the enourmous decline in sales. Cipa just put out their januari figures and it is going down like there is no tomorrow. Especially shipments of dslr to Japan is down to half of what it was one year ago. So Pentax probably shipped less then 1000 camera's to their own home market in januari. That doesn't support an extra model like K-3iii, but also is not enough to hold the current line of three models (K-70, KP and K-1ii).

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201901_e.pdf
Ouch, that hurts! (thank you for the link, by the way). One swallow does not make a summer, or a winter in this case, but the global trend is impressively poor:
  • Compact cameras: -31.6% (units) / -30% (value)
  • DSLRs: -21.8% (units) / -38.7% (value)
  • Mirrorless cameras: -14.8% (units) / +12.1% (value)
  • 24x36 lenses: -4.9% (units) / +0.8% (value)
  • Lenses for smaller formats: -26.6% (units) / -35.2% (value)

One's better off ('less worse', I would dare to say) selling 24x36 mirrorless cameras and their lenses than APS-C DSLRs and theirs...

03-01-2019, 03:37 AM   #380
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
That's mainly marketing talk. They couldn't say the contrary, could they?
That's more product planning than marketing talk - they wouldn't make the camera if they thought it's not worth it
03-01-2019, 03:44 AM   #381
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Originally posted by edri QuotePentax says it will be worth the wait until 2020 for the new camera. (...)That's mainly marketing talk. They couldn't say the contrary, could they?
The quote means what in means in plain English: it means that customers will be delighted by the new camera but they can't tell the specifics of this new camera model at the moment.
03-01-2019, 03:49 AM   #382
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax probably shipped less then 1000 camera's to their own home market in januari. That doesn't support an extra model like K-3iii, but also is not enough to hold the current line of three models (K-70, KP and K-1ii).
I wonder how many units of a camera body Ricoh needs to sell in order for it to be profitable, based on the R&D, production costs and mark-up to a realistic price that is attractive enough to potential buyers?

Re the K-3ii replacement, I believe there's a bigger market for that currently than there is for any of the other models in the line-up. Most of the existing models have probably experienced their peak in sales, reaching some level of market saturation, and are now in slow decline - with perhaps the exception of the K-1II. If we go by the enthusiasm in these forums for a new high-end APS-C body, I think there's considerable demand. But whether it's sufficient to justify development costs, I just don't know...

Last edited by BigMackCam; 03-01-2019 at 03:57 AM.
03-01-2019, 03:51 AM - 5 Likes   #383
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I think the main reason for no new dslr body coming soon is the enourmous decline in sales. Cipa just put out their januari figures and it is going down like there is no tomorrow. Especially shipments of dslr to Japan is down to half of what it was one year ago. So Pentax probably shipped less then 1000 camera's to their own home market in januari. That doesn't support an extra model like K-3iii, but also is not enough to hold the current line of three models (K-70, KP and K-1ii).http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201901_e.pdf
Your are always confusing cause and effect. The cause is what lead to the effects of the cause. For example, you say that market share is what prevents Ricoh from releasing a new DSLR model, but in your sentence you make two assumptions:

Your assumption 1: you assume that market share leads to sales, while in reality, sales lead to market share. If your assumption that market share leads to sales was true, we wouldn't even communication on this forum because Intel would have never existed. Intel started with 0% market share so according to your prediction they would have stayed at 0% market share but they didn't. Apple did the same with the iPhone. When Apple launched the iPhone, Nikon had 80% market share and Apple had 0%, yet Nokia tanked and Apple soared. This last example show evidence that your business thinking is the inverse of what happens in reality. It is even possible that a company value project per the life time value of the projects, that means they make losses the first year of the project while over the long run the ROI is very good.


Your assumption 2: you assume that Ricoh will make a DSLR camera, but there is not way to verify if your assumption is correct. What is they make a mirrorless camera with an AF adapter?

---------- Post added 01-03-19 at 11:58 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Ouch, that hurts! (thank you for the link, by the way). One swallow does not make a summer, or a winter in this case, but the global trend is impressively poor: Compact cameras: -31.6% (units) / -30% (value) DSLRs: -21.8% (units) / -38.7% (value) Mirrorless cameras: -14.8% (units) / +12.1% (value) 24x36 lenses: -4.9% (units) / +0.8% (value) Lenses for smaller formats: -26.6% (units) / -35.2% (value)One's better off ('less worse', I would dare to say) selling 24x36 mirrorless cameras and their lenses than APS-C DSLRs and theirs...
How many companies have near 0% market share and still make money? Take pizzas, the total market for pizza in Europe is 300 billions Euros/year. So, if I take a guy who own a pizza van at the French riviera , he probable has 0.00001% market share and still make money out of it. I worked for a company that had less than 1% market share and they were every year having 3x profit ratio compared to the big ones. Market share doesn't prove anything.


Last edited by biz-engineer; 03-01-2019 at 04:01 AM.
03-01-2019, 04:13 AM   #384
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I'm not so sure there are high fixed costs, e. g. R&D costs, or high investment costs involved in making pizzas...
03-01-2019, 04:49 AM - 10 Likes   #385
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QuoteOriginally posted by edri Quote
Why should I wait the new camera until 2020?
You shouldn't. This isn't religion.
Use the gear that makes you happy. Switch. Or don't. No one else actually cares.
03-01-2019, 05:03 AM - 1 Like   #386
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QuoteOriginally posted by Sandy Hancock Quote
You shouldn't. This isn't religion.

Use the gear that makes you happy. Switch. Or don't. No one else actually cares.
exactly

03-01-2019, 05:12 AM   #387
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QuoteOriginally posted by Sandy Hancock Quote
You shouldn't. This isn't religion.
Use the gear that makes you happy. Switch. Or don't. No one else actually cares.
Very true, you might wait a year and they still won't release what you want so if it's available elsewhere I'd say no point in waiting.
03-01-2019, 05:37 AM - 1 Like   #388
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QuoteOriginally posted by woodworm Quote
Very true, you might wait a year and they still won't release what you want so if it's available elsewhere I'd say no point in waiting.
Is there something wrong with what you have? I mean, when I got my KP it was the greatest thing ever. Has anything changed in two years or am I just jonesing for a new toy?
03-01-2019, 05:51 AM   #389
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
... if you remove sport photography and video, there is nothing that the current Pentax camera models fall short of. ...
Well, that's a funny one. Off the top of my head, features I wish I had by now:
  • Focus bracketing (most of the competition)
  • Live bulb (Olympus, though bulb timer in K-70, KP & K-1ii is not bad)
  • Touch to focus (most of the competition)
  • Eye detection AF (Sony, Fuji, not sure about others)
  • Animal eye detection AF (coming to Sony)
  • 4K and 6K photos modes (Panasonic)
  • USB in-camera recharging (not sure)
  • Decent FPS, buffer and fast buffer clearing
    (it's not just for sports, BTW, but also wildlife - I'm OK with my K-3, but it's not matched by any Pentax model you can currently buy new)
  • "Pre-shutter" bursts (not sure, but at least some top m4/3 cams)
    (where the camera starts shooting from half-press into a circular buffer and, when you actually hit the shutter, saves a certain number of shots prior to when you hit the shutter)
  • A small & light, WR, APS-C wide prime (Fuji 16mm F/2.8 & 23mm F/2, though admittedly that's glass)
Plus decent video, as you mentioned.

That's not to say that Pentax bodies aren't great cameras - they definitely are. If the KP had a better buffer & fps, and larger battery, I'd already own it and would only be really missing focus bracketing, and only wishing for the rest - they fall more into the "nice-to-have" rather than the "must-have" category. But they do add-up and the competition has been improving like crazy.

When I bought my K-3, it totally blew away the X-T1 I was comparing it with, and the Pentax APS-C lens lineup also blew away the Fuji lens line-up! Now, looking at the X-T3 (or the X-H1 or even the X-T30) versus the KP, things are much less clear... BTW, the KP has the same AF module as my K-3. The X-T3's AF is light years away from the X-T1, AFAICT. Fuji has now added small, weather-sealed, silent-focusing, reasonably inexpensive APS-C primes in 16mm, 23mm, 35mm and 50m to their line-up. They've also added a range of other lenses. When I was shopping for my K-3, they didn't even have a 1:1 macro! In the same time, Pentax has added a single, very large, very expensive, fast & sealed ultra-wide APS-C zoom. A nice lens, for sure... Oh, and some WR kit-lenses like the 18-50 RE (which would totally rock my world if it was 15-45).


If my K-3 was to give up the ghost tomorrow, I might buy a used K-3ii or even try to make a KP work for me until 2020. Mostly because of the D-FA 100mm WR (& the DA 1.4X AW) as well as the pain that a system switch entails. Pentax might still be the best system for me. But the equation is nowhere nearly as clear as it was before and it feels like the competition is motoring along while Pentax is resource-starved by its parent company, though what they are producing is still very nice...

Last edited by Doundounba; 03-01-2019 at 06:31 AM.
03-01-2019, 05:54 AM   #390
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Is there something wrong with what you have? I mean, when I got my KP it was the greatest thing ever. Has anything changed in two years or am I just jonesing for a new toy?
I have a K5ii and I'm very happy with it for the things I used to take pictures of. If I were going on holiday tomorrow I would still be very happy to take it. However over the past 18 months or so my needs (and therefore wants! ) have changed (my wife started a business and we use our photo's for web site and advertising, etc).

I never bought a K3 / K3ii because I didn't feel they offered much over what I had and I feel the same regarding the KP. The K1 might be more suitable but as the majority of my glass is for crop sensor it's like buying into a new system anyway so I suspect I will buy into a second system to get what I don't have now and start migrating over to it in time.
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