Originally posted by BigMackCam I tend to agree, and yet... We - and the brands / manufacturers - would do well to acknowledge (or continue to acknowledge) the difference between "entry level" and "accessible". No matter how committed an enthusiast photographer may be, he or she simply might not be able to justify spending $3k+ on a DSLR or mirrorless camera, and $6k+ on maybe three or four lenses. Most folks just don't have that kind of money to burn on photography as a hobby. Professionals, sure - but hobbyists? Not that many. Most folks would be much happier spending $1k - $2k on a body with good, if not class-leading, specification and features, and $500 - $1,000 per lens, or less. That doesn't mean they're any less committed to their hobby... only that their personal circumstances don't allow for a ~$10k investment in gear. They still want the ability to take outstanding photos, but they can't justify that sort of expense. Of course, they can go to the used market if need be...
The thing is, all that has to happen is for enough of the people who would normally be the entry level customer to be satisfied with what their phone can do for them. Hollow out the market segment enough and it will collapse. Look what happened to the P&S market. I’m sure there are still people who would prefer one, but enough people were satisfied with their phones that sales in that market (which was at the time the real entry level) dwindled until it wasn’t financially viable for manufacturers to keep producing.
Entry level is volume dependent. The manufacturer is trading unit profit for volume sales, and gambling that the entry level user will go upscale at some point, as that is where the real margins are. Take away enough unit sales and the market collapses simply because the margins aren’t there to support the lower volume.
Here’s an example. Let’s use sedans as an example, since automobile metaphors seem popular. I’m going to use North America as the marketplace because this is where the trend is.
Treat the compact sedan as the entry level market, the mid sized sport utility as the next tier up, and from there luxury cars and light trucks as the upscale market.
In North America, Ford is out of the entry level market entirely. They have stopped producing sedans in North America. I believe that GM hs shuttered the plant that makes their small sedan, the Cruz, as well. Why is this? Partly because they can’t compete on quality and price with the Japanese and Korean makers, but primarily because the market for small cars has shrunk to the point that making them in North America is no longer viable. People here seem attracted to larger vehicles, and this is sport utility and larger.
Where I am, fully half the vehicles on the road are half ton or larger trucks. The Ford F-150 is the best selling vehicle in the USA and Canada, with the Dodge Ram and GM trucks in second and third place, though not necessarily in the order I mentioned.
Sport utes and minivans make up a very large proportion of vehicles, while sedans and coupes are on the road, though generally hidden behind larger vehicles.
As an aside:
My boss drives a Hyundai Elantra. Today he was parked beside my truck (a Nissan Titan Diesel). I noted as I climbed up into my truck that my floorboard is taller than his wheels.
Anyway, what’s my point you might ask? To which I would reply that I’ve kind of forgotten.
Oh yes, my point is that demand doesn’t have to dry up completely, it just has to dry up enough to make the product, whatever it is, financially unviable.
It also pushes a market upscale. Bigger vehicles, for example, command a higher price tag. A fully equipped F150 series truck will run 75K or more. It doesn’t matter how much lipstick you apply to an entry level sedan chassis, it would be pretty hard to get people to pay 75K for it.’
As always, the used market can provide very good value across a broad range of products, cars and cameras included. Some stuff holds it’s value fairly well, some doesn’t, and how depreciation affects things differs. For example, I am totally shocked at how fast my truck has devalued. Well over 50% in two years, and I expect at the moment that I am somewhat underwater on it. Cameras depreciate the same way for the most part, lenses seem to do somewhat better.
I’m babbling.