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02-16-2020, 12:20 PM - 2 Likes   #76
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
From the outside it appears they have moved from a ‘large batch’ production model to more of a constant maanufacturing production model. This reduces/eliminates the need to heavily discount* cameras held in inventory as they age, and allows the cash flow from current sales to finance the costs of current production. It would be a much leaner, more flexible, less capital-intensive business model.


* and if true calls into question the consumer strategy “wait
until the price drops in six months before I buy” so commonly espoused here.
It would be interesting to see, as an academic exercise, how a "constant manufacturing" model would work with lenses.
It seems to me you have to make them in batches or have independent lines running slowly for years.

I also think the really steep discounts on lenses will be less common as we progress and the market further contracts.
Except in the case of a model replacement, there would be no reason to heavily discount something.

That said, I do expect a 'new product' premium to continue to exist on new introductions...
So, like the 70-200 f2.8 or the DFA 50mm f1.4, the prices will drop, just maybe not as much as we'd like...

It will also be interesting to see how that works on lenses or accessories (like the new 70-210 f4) that are made under some sort of cooperative agreement with another OEM.

-Eric

02-16-2020, 12:37 PM - 1 Like   #77
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I was really referring to cameras rather than lenses. For lenses, where they have to set up multiple machines to make the elements and assemble the lenses they probably still make batches, just smaller batches. That means they cost more to produce and also means the prices are less susceptible to discounting, which suggests making more premium lenses and fewer low cost consumer lenses.

DSLR’s are more hand-assembled than MILC’s, so it might be feasible, with properly trained employees and only three or four camera bodies, to run assembly as more of a constant process. As I recall the initial rumors, they planned to make 7,000 K-1’s a month once the initial batch was sold. That sounds like constant production to me.

They greatly underestimated initial demand and it was hard to even get a K-1 the first six months, so there clearly wasn’t a large batch inventory to draw down to meet the pre-order demand.

QuoteOriginally posted by TwoUptons Quote
It would be interesting to see, as an academic exercise, how a "constant manufacturing" model would work with lenses.
It seems to me you have to make them in batches or have independent lines running slowly for years.

I also think the really steep discounts on lenses will be less common as we progress and the market further contracts.
Except in the case of a model replacement, there would be no reason to heavily discount something.

That said, I do expect a 'new product' premium to continue to exist on new introductions...
So, like the 70-200 f2.8 or the DFA 50mm f1.4, the prices will drop, just maybe not as much as we'd like...

It will also be interesting to see how that works on lenses or accessories (like the new 70-210 f4) that are made under some sort of cooperative agreement with another OEM.

-Eric
02-16-2020, 12:57 PM   #78
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
(...) You should add that the WG-60 was also released last year, leaving a number of Pentax users feeling abandoned, which is not a good thing.
It was the WG-6, not the WG-60, but it doesn't matter. So were the G900 and G900SE. However, these three cameras are ODM products. Would you like ODM cameras to fill up the Pentax portfolio?
02-16-2020, 01:07 PM - 1 Like   #79
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
From the outside it appears they have moved from a ‘large batch’ production model to more of a constant manufacturing production model. This reduces/eliminates the need to heavily discount* cameras held in inventory as they age, and allows the cash flow from current sales to finance the costs of current production. It would be a much leaner, more flexible, less capital-intensive business model.
(...)
I'd say the bottleneck is more the R&D than the production capacity.

By the way, cameras are largely hand-assembled, Canon being an exception with their entry- and mid-level models. Most of them are manufactured(1) 'as it goes', not batch manufactured.

(1) in the full sense of the word: manu facere in Latin = to make by hand.

02-16-2020, 01:32 PM - 1 Like   #80
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
However, these three cameras are ODM products. Would you like ODM cameras to fill up the Pentax portfolio?
No, I would like more attention paid to K-mount cameras.
02-16-2020, 03:04 PM   #81
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Actually it's what Ricoh Imaging have done for a few years:
  • 2016: K-1 (and K-70 as a bonus)
  • 2007: KP
  • 2018: K-1 Mark II
  • 2019: GR III
  • 2020: KNEW?
I guess I meant ILCs. I know that the GR III is a Ricoh camera, but it feels like a different category that doesn't quite scratch the same itch that many are looking to get scratched on the Forum.
02-16-2020, 04:56 PM - 1 Like   #82
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I guess I meant ILCs. I know that the GR III is a Ricoh camera, but it feels like a different category that doesn't quite scratch the same itch that many are looking to get scratched on the Forum.
Indeed but it draws on the same R&D resources. And for those itching for Pentax cameras and lenses it has the tremendous advantage of bringing money in and allowing Ricoh Imaging to keep on developing Pentax equipment. We therefore shouldn't look down on the GR III.

02-16-2020, 08:25 PM - 1 Like   #83
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Indeed but it draws on the same R&D resources. And for those itching for Pentax cameras and lenses it has the tremendous advantage of bringing money in and allowing Ricoh Imaging to keep on developing Pentax equipment. We therefore shouldn't look down on the GR III.
The GRRRR has a mixed effect. Ricoh-branded cameras bring more money into the corporation, but they take corporate resources to produce.
02-16-2020, 11:01 PM - 3 Likes   #84
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
Ricoh-branded cameras bring more money into the corporation, but they take corporate resources to produce.
I really don't think the constrained resources are personnel related. Pentax R&D was a lean team when Ricoh acquired it from Hoya and Ricoh has capabilities in microchips and precision tool making that Hoya would have had to outsource. In spite of this, Pentax product development has definitely slowed down since 2016 and it was never galloping along on the Ricoh side of SmartVision. How many years between the GRII and GRIII and there isn't an ecosystem of lenses and accessories to worry about, either. (Answer: approx. 6 years)


It appears to me that Ricoh management is not investing more capital into SmartVision than what that division can generate in net revenue over a relatively short period of time (basically, year to year, certainly not based on projections two and three years out). In other words, SmartVision R&D is self-funded. This means little money for building prototypes, and even when there are prototypes to test, there isn't enough money to purchase tooling and components to put new products into production.


It isn't that Ricoh Company doesn't have the cash to fund new products, but that top level management is not willing to risk investing in products for shrinking markets. Therefore, every move SmartVision makes has to pay off and the parent company isn't cutting SmartVision any slack. As long as the GRIII and Theta are paying their way, the noose doesn't get tightened. The problem facing SmartVision management is that without new products to sell, their business will contract and even if they don't make mistakes, if the business contracts too much there will be no justification for Ricoh to keep operating SmartVision, never mind investing in it.
02-17-2020, 05:25 AM - 1 Like   #85
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
I really don't think the constrained resources are personnel related. Pentax R&D was a lean team when Ricoh acquired it from Hoya and Ricoh has capabilities in microchips and precision tool making that Hoya would have had to outsource. In spite of this, Pentax product development has definitely slowed down since 2016 and it was never galloping along on the Ricoh side of SmartVision. How many years between the GRII and GRIII and there isn't an ecosystem of lenses and accessories to worry about, either. (Answer: approx. 6 years)


It appears to me that Ricoh management is not investing more capital into SmartVision than what that division can generate in net revenue over a relatively short period of time (basically, year to year, certainly not based on projections two and three years out). In other words, SmartVision R&D is self-funded. This means little money for building prototypes, and even when there are prototypes to test, there isn't enough money to purchase tooling and components to put new products into production.


It isn't that Ricoh Company doesn't have the cash to fund new products, but that top level management is not willing to risk investing in products for shrinking markets. Therefore, every move SmartVision makes has to pay off and the parent company isn't cutting SmartVision any slack. As long as the GRIII and Theta are paying their way, the noose doesn't get tightened. The problem facing SmartVision management is that without new products to sell, their business will contract and even if they don't make mistakes, if the business contracts too much there will be no justification for Ricoh to keep operating SmartVision, never mind investing in it.
We're all speculating, but I think this makes as much sense as anything. They allow Pentax and SmartVision to continue to exist just so long as they don't have to subsidize anything. Even in the short term. So while other companies have external resources to draw on, SmartVision has to self-fund everything. Out of cost, schedule, and performance you can only have two if there are constraints and sometimes even two is a stretch. In this case schedule always gets de-prioritized, and sometimes performance, too, when they use AF and imaging chips that are a generation or two old.
02-17-2020, 09:07 AM   #86
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In the current situation of the shrink market, plus the innovative technologies presented by the MLs of the other producers, it will be almost impossible for Pentax to maintain itself only through Ricoh Imaging self-financing. It is necessary for Ricoh to seriously fund this imaging R&D department, especially as they have the necessary resources. But it is their money, their corporation, they decide the direction not us.
02-17-2020, 09:57 AM   #87
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I'm not sure what's the proposal - for Ricoh to pump money into Ricoh Imaging, money they'd have no chance to gain back?

I doubt this "self-funding" thing is how it works. I don't think "Pentax" has a bulletproof plan whose funding was rejected by Ricoh. Or perhaps this is about Pentax becoming the next Minolta?
02-17-2020, 10:09 AM   #88
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Maybe there will be some clarifications after the March interview.
02-21-2020, 06:39 AM   #89
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Only thing that bothers me is that not too long ago I had no problem selling Pemtax gear i dont need anymore. Last half the year I cannot sell gear in mint condition for half price i bought it.
02-21-2020, 08:30 AM   #90
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QuoteOriginally posted by Trickortreat Quote
Only thing that bothers me is that not too long ago I had no problem selling Pemtax gear i dont need anymore. Last half the year I cannot sell gear in mint condition for half price i bought it.
That does help enforce brand loyalty.
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