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10-28-2008, 02:40 PM   #1
RaduA
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K-m sales in Japan for the first 3 days

As many of us know the K-m was launched October 24th in Japan. According to the ??????????? | ??? | ??????????? BCN????? the situation of sales is like this:

- K-m dual kit (IMO the most appealing bundle) debuted on nr 22 two places above the K200D dual kit;
- K-m kit is on nr 35 up from 103rd. Also K200D kit is up 3 places to 18th so the two cameras actually don't compete for the same target market it seems;
- K-m body only - up to nr 40 from 87th (K200D body only down to 48th from 32nd).
Most remarkably is that the figures for the K-m are from only the last 3 days of the surveyed period (20-26 October). So this three models could very well increase Pentax' market share quite significantly.
The next week will signal how the Japanese market will embrace the new model but first signals look promising IMO. What's your take on this?

Regards,
Radu

10-28-2008, 03:29 PM   #2
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It seems they really did the homework in bringing out this cam. Many people upgrade from P&S to DSLR, when they want better quality for taking pictures when they have babies.

They also seem to have worked on making it even more simpler to use, but still with features. Iím looking forward to holding it, and getting a feel. I love the K10 / K20, but I wouldn't recommend it to newcomers.


Still of cause it is hard to compete with a camera called Eos Kiss x2
10-28-2008, 05:02 PM   #3
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Just a short personal comment on it - I think the K-m was great from a business stand-point and I hope it continues to do very well so that Pentax can quickly move on to the K30 and beyond
10-28-2008, 05:31 PM   #4
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That is great news! Looking forward to when it's available on amazon or something.

10-28-2008, 09:34 PM   #5
Damn Brit
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Has anyone come across any info that reflects how these stats from Japan compare to the rest of the world?
10-29-2008, 03:20 AM   #6
RaduA
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QuoteOriginally posted by Damn Brit Quote
Has anyone come across any info that reflects how these stats from Japan compare to the rest of the world?
Hi, Gary!

According to CIPA the statistics for jan-jun is:

Units shiped ---------------- destination ------------------------ % of total

616206 ----------------------- Japan ----------------------------14.5 percent
1559592 --------------------- Europe --------------------------- 36.7 percent
1190539 ------------------- North America --------------------- 27.5 percent
789961 ------------------------ Asia ------------------------------ 18.6 percent
88884 ------------------------ Other ----------------------------- 2.1 percent

Total units shiped: 4245182

Units produced: 4329886.

From infos provided by falconeye some weeks ago (from the Hoya financial report if I am not wrong) I remeber that the main market for Pentax was Europe (for the fiscal year that ended in spring 2008), second was Japan and third North America. I expect that in this year the rift will only deepen with Europe and Japan way ahead of N.A. in sales.

Regards,
Radu
10-29-2008, 08:21 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by RaduA Quote
...
From infos provided by falconeye some weeks ago (from the Hoya financial report if I am not wrong) I remeber that the main market for Pentax was Europe (for the fiscal year that ended in spring 2008), second was Japan and third North America. I expect that in this year the rift will only deepen with Europe and Japan way ahead of N.A. in sales.

Regards,
Radu
Brand awareness is definately skewed to Canon here, then Nikon. I'm not sure how different Canada's actual sales might be from the US though as Pentax seems well stocked in my neck of the woods at least.

There are three main camera shops within walking distance of my downtown condo which all have a full line of current Pentax equipment in stock. A major satellite, shopping mall type retailer in the area also carries Pentax, but its lower profile in the display case tells a story.

Of all the people who I've met who have a casual interest in photography, it has only happened once that one owned a Pentax DSLR (and thankfully it was at my hotel, on my holiday when I'd left my charger at home, I was able to bum a recharge to get me through). Otoh, everyone who I've personally been asked to help them buy a camera either bought a Pentax or respected the value they represented. None had considered Pentax before my suggestion.

Pentax could benefit from flaunting their in-body SR more with a brief, easy to grasp explanation, in the end, its that, image quality and comparative pricing that people I've talked with have warmed up to with respect to the brand. It seems with the K2000 and its intended market that Pentax might finally have the tool to arm their people with to attack this undecided, growing entry level market. If Pentax play their cards right here by supporting this camera with agressive, educational marketing they could be poised for a bit of a come-back. It does seem the K2000 is a well placed product.
10-29-2008, 09:32 AM   #8
RaduA
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QuoteOriginally posted by thePiRaTE!! Quote
Brand awareness is definately skewed to Canon here, then Nikon. I'm not sure how different Canada's actual sales might be from the US though as Pentax seems well stocked in my neck of the woods at least.

There are three main camera shops within walking distance of my downtown condo which all have a full line of current Pentax equipment in stock. A major satellite, shopping mall type retailer in the area also carries Pentax, but its lower profile in the display case tells a story.

Of all the people who I've met who have a casual interest in photography, it has only happened once that one owned a Pentax DSLR (and thankfully it was at my hotel, on my holiday when I'd left my charger at home, I was able to bum a recharge to get me through). Otoh, everyone who I've personally been asked to help them buy a camera either bought a Pentax or respected the value they represented. None had considered Pentax before my suggestion.

Pentax could benefit from flaunting their in-body SR more with a brief, easy to grasp explanation, in the end, its that, image quality and comparative pricing that people I've talked with have warmed up to with respect to the brand. It seems with the K2000 and its intended market that Pentax might finally have the tool to arm their people with to attack this undecided, growing entry level market. If Pentax play their cards right here by supporting this camera with agressive, educational marketing they could be poised for a bit of a come-back. It does seem the K2000 is a well placed product.
Kelly,

You have a lot of good points there and IMO this little camera could mean a new beggining for Pentax. The problem on the American market is pricing since Pentax doesn't discount their models like the rest (compared to European pricing at least).
IMO it was wiser to launch it in volume first in Japan rather than have a scarse presence worldwide. I liked a lot the very professional marketing treatment this model enjoyed from Hoya with very nice sites, a lot of advertising (see dc watch home page), and a specific target. In the end if Pentax can pull off the trick of targeting mostly women (at least in Japan) with K-m and mostly men with K200D (and its succesor) kudos to them. The next step in making KxxxD even more valuable on the market would be IMO a long weather sealed zoom (like 18-1xx, or 18-200 but not like the lattest Canon try in quality).

Like I said next week will bring the first full week in rankings so I expect better things to come.

Regards,
Radu

10-29-2008, 10:07 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by RaduA Quote
Kelly,
Like I said next week will bring the first full week in rankings so I expect better things to come.

Regards,
Radu
One or two weeks of sales means very little. Let's see how many they sell in the first 12 months world wide. Anything below 300,000 units is a failure. Over 400,000 makes it a big success. My guess is it will do about 340,000.

Care to make a prediction?

Ken
10-29-2008, 10:23 AM   #10
RaduA
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
One or two weeks of sales means very little. Let's see how many they sell in the first 12 months world wide. Anything below 300,000 units is a failure. Over 400,000 makes it a big success. My guess is it will do about 340,000.

Care to make a prediction?

Ken
Always happy to oblige, Ken!

If we're talking only about gut feelings I'll say that in the first 12 months K-m (2000) will match the other 2 models combined. Now I expect the ratio to be about 60% in the first months and steadily decline in time after the KxxD and KxxxD succesors will be brought on the market. I also expect it to more than double Pentax' share market in Japan (big market for this kind of models) to over 9% and also to be a hit in emerging markets (especially in the dual zoom bundle).
All in all I stand by this and for an average of 4% of the share market worldwide which in numbers means 8.4Mx 4/100 = 340k units.

You see Ken, great spirits are alike !

Regards,
Radu
10-29-2008, 11:08 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by RaduA Quote
Always happy to oblige, Ken!

If we're talking only about gut feelings I'll say that in the first 12 months K-m (2000) will match the other 2 models combined. Now I expect the ratio to be about 60% in the first months and steadily decline in time after the KxxD and KxxxD succesors will be brought on the market. I also expect it to more than double Pentax' share market in Japan (big market for this kind of models) to over 9% and also to be a hit in emerging markets (especially in the dual zoom bundle).
All in all I stand by this and for an average of 4% of the share market worldwide which in numbers means 8.4Mx 4/100 = 340k units.

You see Ken, great spirits are alike !

Regards,
Radu
Pentax's fiscal year runs from Oct. through Sept. The 2008-2009 fiscal year will not exceed 500,000 total units. you seem to be in the 600,000 unit range.
BTW, The projected total market for 2008-2009 is being estimated at close to 10,000,000.

Ken
10-29-2008, 03:34 PM   #12
RaduA
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
Pentax's fiscal year runs from Oct. through Sept. The 2008-2009 fiscal year will not exceed 500,000 total units. you seem to be in the 600,000 unit range.
BTW, The projected total market for 2008-2009 is being estimated at close to 10,000,000.

Ken
First of all, Ken you said "how many they sell in the first 12 months world wide" so I guess that means 2 or even 3 more months after the end of fiscal year considering that end of November seems to be the beggining of sales outside Japan. If they up the production let's say with the same percentage as in the past (360k-500k) that could mean 700K for the next FY. Hence as many as 175K units for those 3 more months could be manufactured and 40-50% of those can mean a nice amount. Anyway IMO it's fair to say that the current recession will make a lot of forecasts useless but again IMO more on the high end than on the entry level. Some of those who plan an upgrade from older models may consider K-m or K200D instead of K20D and some of the new buyers will probably forget about the brand and focus on the price/performance or price/quality.

Wild speculations of course!
Regards,
Radu
11-03-2008, 04:50 PM   #13
RaduA
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from 10/27 till 11/02

??????????? | ??? | ??????????? BCN?????

Best placed Pentax model K200D kit on 14th up from 19th place
K-m double kit on 22nd up from 23rd;
K200D double kit on 31st down from 25th;
K-m body on 34th up from 41st;
K200D body on 38th up from 49th;
K-m kit on 42nd down from 37th;
K20D body on 49th up from 52nd place (for comparisson D300 body is on 44th place down from 35th last week);

Some time a go they had actual market share for every model and I remember that for a place around 15th there was something like 2.x% market share then places between 20-30 had around 1%. My guesstimate is that atm Pentax has an "instant market share for the week" of 6-6.5% in Japan with a proportion of 50-55% for K200D variants, 30-35% K-m variants and ~15% K20D variants.

Regards,
Radu
11-03-2008, 08:06 PM   #14
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Interesting!

A bit odd that the entry-level, mass market K-m slots right in between the A900 and Canon's new 5D, which supposedly target a much smaller segment (and are 5 times more expensive).
11-04-2008, 04:26 AM   #15
RaduA
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QuoteOriginally posted by cyg Quote
Interesting!

A bit odd that the entry-level, mass market K-m slots right in between the A900 and Canon's new 5D, which supposedly target a much smaller segment (and are 5 times more expensive).
Cyg,

ATM I guess Hoya don't make a lot of them yet (I say that because the camera is not available outside Japan) but in 3-4 weeks then we'll know for sure how well it sells (because then it'll be for sure mass market produced).

Regards,
Radu

P.S. A900 was last week on number 8 when it debuted in Japan and IMHO will sink further and further week after week.
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