[normhead]

But, back on topic, I just want all to know, I bought a Rokinin 14 2.8 last year. This is not my fault.

OK, I feel better having cleared that up.

[bertwert]

I bought a Rokinin 14 2.8 last year. This is not my fault.

I know that's not what you mean, but I see you explaining to Tess:

"Look, it's not my fault. I didn't mean to buy it. The mouse just clicked the 'Confirm Order' button itself!"

[RobA_Oz]

I think you're trapped in the past, Rob, I'm afraid.

You're guided by pricing and strategies from the pre 2012 camera boom.

Camera companies are facing death in 2020-2030. They will not and cannot survive by shelves of product at Walmart. That sort of customer is now using their phones for pictures of their coffee, their dog, their child, and flowers.

You've picked up on only one aspect of my post, Ian. I've bought the D FA*50/1.4 and the D FA70-210, not to mention the K-1, so I don't think I'm trapped in that sense: I'm quite aware of the way prices have been moving. Also, the K-3 was released in late 2013 and the K-3ii in 2015, not pre-2012 but, as I said, the AUD was probably stronger then.

Regardless of that, the K-1ii sets, indirectly, an upper limit on the price of the new APS-C body, and the K70 is still the entry-level body. Are you suggesting the K70 may be the last of the lower-priced Pentaxes? Should the K-1ii replacement be nudging prices further toward 645Z territory, perhaps? Heaven knows where the medium format Pentaxes are going.


Anyway, I agree that really cheap DSLRs are not a good idea in the immediate future, let alone the longer term. Thankfully, we don't see many people here bemoaning the lack of Pentax gear in the big box-shifters, anymore.

To rephrase my previous statement, the vital question is really not so much the price of the K-3ii replacement (which I expect won't be hugely greater than that of the K-3ii, unless there is something we don't know about in its makeup) but whether there will be a K70 replacement and what price will be put on it.

[clackers]

On some level that's what some sports teams are doing. Baseball in particular. Smaller stadiums, more season tickets, more expensive tickets, more premium suites.

But in the end you have fewer fans.

Obviously, but you might survive, while having many customers but not making enough margin on them kills you!

Sony know this. Their only APS-C products now (they've had many) are the premium 6000 line, the 5000 and 3000 entry level lines are long forgotten. And yet they're still struggling. It will be much harder for them to pivot from being a marketshare seeker to niche provider than Pentax has.

[clackers]

the price of the K-3ii replacement (which I expect won't be hugely greater than that of the K-3ii

I think Mistral and I completely disagree with you.

but whether there will be a K70 replacement and what price will be put on it.

Sadly, market trends do not bode well for that, an APS-C entry level camera.

See Sony!

[thibs]

IMO, the range will rather be:
* Kp-like body
* K-new
* K-1 III

And that's it.

[Zygonyx]

I think Mistral and I completely disagree with you.

One more.
To be clear the K-2 will have a USD 2000 range price tag.
Just save on Samyang lenses not-to-be-anymore-available-for-Pentax-shooters.

[HDpotato]

That's a real shame. I'm new to the Pentax system (former Konika, NIkon and Fuji user) and out of the 24-70 2.8, Samyang 85mm 1.4, 50 1.8 and a collection of Takumar glass, the Samyang/Rokinon 85mm 1.4 is a lens I really love using. It has some vintage-like characteristics and it razor sharp stopped down to F/2.

People can think whatever they want about third party products - but competion and diversity is always good for the consumer.

[Wasp]

The days of Pentax as a value for money brand will never be back, it seems. Being in the game as a niche player means higher prices. If I can sum up the Pentax niche it would be tough weather sealed DSLRs and lenses that offer decent value for money for what you get. A K-1 is a very decent piece of kit, just a little bit cheaper less expensive than the equivalent Nikon or Canon DSLR.


If you are looking to get into the full frame game on a low(ish) budget the Canon EOS RP is your answer. Or you might find a good deal on a Sony A7 II but that is yesterday's tech. You will have to live life without peering through a prism but the savings are significant. In my part of the world the cost of a KP body will buy me an EOS RP with a Canon 24-105. For the price of a K1 II, I can get the EOS RP with Canon 20, 28, 50 and 100 primes. These will be EF mount lenses but Canon throws the required adapter in with the body. The EOS RP may not be the very last word in image quality, but it does amount to very compelling value for money. My comparisons may not be relevant, as the user experience of a MILC or DSLR are different things to different people, but the numbers are there.

At the lower end of the market, some of us like the idea of an EOS 2000D with a K mount. Just a little less plastic, if you please. The thing is, there aren't enough of us to make it worthwhile for Ricoh. That end of the market is being eroded by communication devices that also happen to have the ability to take somewhat decent pictures, in any case.

[clackers]

People can think whatever they want about third party products - but competion and diversity is always good for the consumer.

Yes, but terrible for the companies.

The third parties are viewed as parasites by the camera companies, especially when all concerned face declining sales.

You can tolerate the situation in a rising market.

[ThorSanchez]

Obviously, but you might survive, while having many customers but not making enough margin on them kills you!

Sony know this. Their only APS-C products now (they've had many) are the premium 6000 line, the 5000 and 3000 entry level lines are long forgotten. And yet they're still struggling. It will be much harder for them to pivot from being a marketshare seeker to niche provider than Pentax has.

For now, maybe. But who's the next generation? Pentax (and baseball) already have problems with their average customer being old. That group will continue to shrink, and there will be very few new customers picking up the slack as you price the younger folks out of the market.

Yes, but terrible for the companies.

The third parties are viewed as parasites by the camera companies, especially when all concerned face declining sales.

You can tolerate the situation in a rising market.

Third party lenses can attract new customers when first-party lenses are $2000 beasts. You can get a Rokinon 85mm f/1.4 in K-mount new for $250. How many people are really cross-shopping those lenses? If you can afford an Aston Martin, are you really being lured away by a Ford Fiesta and killing Aston's bottom line?


Third parties often fill gaps in the lens lineup that the first party doesn't care to address. And when Pentax brings out one or two lenses a year that's pretty important. Leica seems to be the aspirational brand everyone wants to be, and they joined (formed?) the L-mount alliance specifically to supply 3rd-party lenses for their cameras.

[Mistral75]

(...)

I can’t find the launch prices of all the range-topping APS-C bodies, but having bought the K20D, K-5 and K-3, my recollection of their prices was that each was lower than its predecessor, but that (and my comments above) could be influenced by AUD exchange rates at the time.

Here below these launch prices (body only) in Euroland:

• K10D: €949 (September 2006)
• K20D: €1,199 (January 2008)
• K-7: €1,249 (May 2009)
• K-5: €1,249 (September 2010)
• K-5 II / IIs: €1,099 / €1,299 (September 2012)
• K-3: €1,299 (October 2013)
• K-3 II: €999 (April 2015)

The KP's launch price was €1,299 (January 2017).

[Mistral75]

You could well be right, Mistral, companies have to survive on a minority of customers now, not subsidize everyone else, so it's bad news for a lot of photographers.

BTW, after watching Tony Northrup it's always a relief to see someone like yourself with data driven reporting and analysis. You'd be a great journalist, except the market for them has been smashed, too.

I bet cheaply paid millenials find themselves now as 'content providers' for what's left of news sites, without editors and subeditors.

Thank you for your kind words. My job is investment banking, mergers and acquisitions more precisely, therefore analysing companies, their strategy and their financial performance (past and expected) is among the tasks I expect my staff to perform, teach to them and perform myself occasionally.

[Pål Jensen]

For now, maybe. But who's the next generation? Pentax (and baseball) already have problems with their average customer being old. That group will continue to shrink, and there will be very few new customers picking up the slack as you price the younger folks out of the market.

The value of Pentax, and why Ricoh bought them, are the close to 30 000 000 Pentax K-mount lenses out there. The good K-mount lenses are very attractive. Pentax makes DSLR's to the owners of these lenses and selling more K-mount lenses in the process. The user base is therefore increasing. Doesn't matter if the users are growing old and die. They won't take the lenses with them (except for Wheatfield); the lenses will get sold to someone else. These someone elses will at some point want a modern camera for their lenses and/or buy a new lens as well.

[normhead]

Thank you for your kind words. My job is investment banking, mergers and acquisitions more precisely, therefore analysing companies, their strategy and their financial performance (past and expected) is among the tasks I expect my staff to perform, teach to them and perform myself occasionally.

Your qualifications come out in your posts. Why so many people think they actually know more than people who work in these fields is beyond me. And why they post their pet theories when there is better advice available, is also a mystery.

There is no more compelling argument than "I make money analyzing these things" as a qualification.