New K-New? Who Knew?

stevebrot · 10-05-2020, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Erictator

The part I find somewhat amazing is that the announcement drew ZERO comments in the comment section at the end of the article, not even a wise crack, nothing!

A tip might translate to a rumor if it is credible. The paucity of early comments (actually there was one early on and quite a few more since) indicates the lack of "meat" in the article.

Steve

**limestonecowboy** · 10-05-2020, 10:18 AM - **1 Like**

Just had a daft idea, if you had a mirrorless K mount camera (such as the K-01 for example) - is there enough space to design a tray to fit filters where the mirror isn't? This could be independent of the lens, unlike

You Tube

**Larrymc** · 10-05-2020, 10:54 AM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by clackers

Pentax Rumours also said K-new would be announced in September, right?

Guess if you make predictions, you can hope people forget all the times you were wrong and then you wave your arms about when something actually happens. This was the strategy of psychic Jean Dixon.

At least Pentax Rumours could point to a source with the K-new - Tanaka, the maverick Japanese photographer.

But no source is named with this one (so it can be simply made up by the writer and can't be checked or challenged), and no verification with a second source either, so this is pub talk and definitely not journalism.

Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!!

And we still listen to them and watch them daily??

Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick.

reh321 · 10-05-2020, 11:11 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Larrymc

Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!!

And we still listen to them and watch them daily??

Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick.

Our meteorologists do a fairly good job even though nearness to a fairly large lake does mess with their guesses.
They tell us what they expect to happen and why it might not, and they are usually close.

**ThorSanchez** · 10-05-2020, 12:52 PM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by reh321

Our meteorologists do a fairly good job even though nearness to a fairly large lake does mess with their guesses.
They tell us what they expect to happen and why it might not, and they are usually close.

I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems.

**gaweidert** · 10-05-2020, 01:22 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by ThorSanchez

I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems.

I actually live across the street from one of our local TV meteorologists. He admits that once they get past a 4 hour window the reliability of the forecast starts declining rapidly. They still rely on experience with local weather weather patterns to develop their forecast. Interesting enough back in the mid 1970's I read the handbook that went along with private pilot's ground school. Back then they said the same thing.

**ThorSanchez** · 10-05-2020, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by gaweidert

I actually live across the street from one of our local TV meteorologists. He admits that once they get past a 4 hour window the reliability of the forecast starts declining rapidly. They still rely on experience with local weather weather patterns to develop their forecast. Interesting enough back in the mid 1970's I read the handbook that went along with private pilot's ground school. Back then they said the same thing.

My sister-in-law has a doctorate in meteorology and works for NASA. She confirms what's kind of common sense, that the farther out in time you go the less the prediction is model-based and the more it's just historical averages. A week out is decently reliable, more than that is mostly what it's supposed to do that time of the year.

She also says that The Capital Weather Gang is quite good, at least for those around DC.

**Larrymc** · 10-05-2020, 02:13 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by ThorSanchez

I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems.

I said that mostly in jest, ever heard of the old joke that "a weatherman is the only person who can be wrong over 70% of the time and still keep his job". As a former U.S. Army Aviator who used to have to depend on meteorologists to carry out my missions I have a great deal of respect for meteorologists however, outside of 24 hours accuracy does wane some.

**FozzFoster** · 10-05-2020, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by Larrymc

outside of 24 hours accuracy does wane some.

The problem with weather forecasts (any forecasts, really) is the lack of confidence intervals about those data.

**Belnan** · 10-05-2020, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Larrymc

Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!!

And we still listen to them and watch them daily??

Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick.

Hey, leave the meteorologists alone. Btw I dont count most TV personalities as Meteorologists.

gatorguy · 10-05-2020, 03:32 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by beachgardener

I would not be surprised at all, many showed interest in having a film like look or retro look type camera and along came the KP, we want an aps-c flagship and it is on the way.
Many here express the need for video, Pentax do listen to their customers (fans) so it makes sense especially with an articulated screen. Maybe K-90 camera.

I dunno...
That 4mp looks like overkill.

**Larrymc** · 10-05-2020, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Belnan

Hey, leave the meteorologists alone. Btw I dont count most TV personalities as Meteorologists.

Look lighten up as I said it was in jest........OK.

stevebrot · 10-05-2020, 05:38 PM - **4 Likes**

Originally posted by Larrymc

Look lighten up as I said it was in jest........OK.

There is no jest in the rumors section. All is taken and responded to with deadly seriousness.

Steve

**Larrymc** · 10-05-2020, 07:53 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by stevebrot

There is no jest in the rumors section. All is taken and responded to with deadly seriousness.

Steve

Yep, almost took me out with the shot!!

reh321 · 10-06-2020, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by Larrymc

Yep, almost took me out with the shot!!

I am sorry for my contribution, but some members need something to talk about right now.
I am generally satisfied taking photos.

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10-05-2020, 09:53 AM	#61
stevebrot Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Vancouver (USA) Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 42,007	Originally posted by Erictator The part I find somewhat amazing is that the announcement drew ZERO comments in the comment section at the end of the article, not even a wise crack, nothing! A tip might translate to a rumor if it is credible. The paucity of early comments (actually there was one early on and quite a few more since) indicates the lack of "meat" in the article. Steve

10-05-2020, 10:54 AM - 2 Likes	#63
Larrymc Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Mississippi, USA Posts: 5,252	Originally posted by clackers Pentax Rumours also said K-new would be announced in September, right? Guess if you make predictions, you can hope people forget all the times you were wrong and then you wave your arms about when something actually happens. This was the strategy of psychic Jean Dixon. At least Pentax Rumours could point to a source with the K-new - Tanaka, the maverick Japanese photographer. But no source is named with this one (so it can be simply made up by the writer and can't be checked or challenged), and no verification with a second source either, so this is pub talk and definitely not journalism. Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!! And we still listen to them and watch them daily?? Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick.

10-05-2020, 11:11 AM - 1 Like	#64
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,184	Originally posted by Larrymc Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!! And we still listen to them and watch them daily?? Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick. Our meteorologists do a fairly good job even though nearness to a fairly large lake does mess with their guesses. They tell us what they expect to happen and why it might not, and they are usually close.

10-05-2020, 12:52 PM - 2 Likes	#65
ThorSanchez Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2012 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,807	Originally posted by reh321 Our meteorologists do a fairly good job even though nearness to a fairly large lake does mess with their guesses. They tell us what they expect to happen and why it might not, and they are usually close. I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems.

10-05-2020, 01:22 PM - 1 Like	#66
gaweidert Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Rochester, NY Photos: Gallery Posts: 5,325	Originally posted by ThorSanchez I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems. I actually live across the street from one of our local TV meteorologists. He admits that once they get past a 4 hour window the reliability of the forecast starts declining rapidly. They still rely on experience with local weather weather patterns to develop their forecast. Interesting enough back in the mid 1970's I read the handbook that went along with private pilot's ground school. Back then they said the same thing.

10-05-2020, 01:33 PM	#67
ThorSanchez Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2012 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,807	Originally posted by gaweidert I actually live across the street from one of our local TV meteorologists. He admits that once they get past a 4 hour window the reliability of the forecast starts declining rapidly. They still rely on experience with local weather weather patterns to develop their forecast. Interesting enough back in the mid 1970's I read the handbook that went along with private pilot's ground school. Back then they said the same thing. My sister-in-law has a doctorate in meteorology and works for NASA. She confirms what's kind of common sense, that the farther out in time you go the less the prediction is model-based and the more it's just historical averages. A week out is decently reliable, more than that is mostly what it's supposed to do that time of the year. She also says that The Capital Weather Gang is quite good, at least for those around DC.

10-05-2020, 02:13 PM - 1 Like	#68
Larrymc Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Mississippi, USA Posts: 5,252	Originally posted by ThorSanchez I think modern meteorology and meteorologists do a very good job. The tools they have to predict the weather are a lot better than a generation ago, and they're usually good if you understand a bit about probabilities. The problem, if there is one, is that it's difficult to explain statistical probabilities to a large fraction of the population. As anyone who's done semi-serious sports analytics could tell you. People want definitive yes or no answers on predictions about extremely complex multi-variable problems. I said that mostly in jest, ever heard of the old joke that "a weatherman is the only person who can be wrong over 70% of the time and still keep his job". As a former U.S. Army Aviator who used to have to depend on meteorologists to carry out my missions I have a great deal of respect for meteorologists however, outside of 24 hours accuracy does wane some.

10-05-2020, 02:31 PM	#69
FozzFoster Custom User Title Join Date: Jan 2016 Location: Alberta Photos: Albums Posts: 6,808 Original Poster	Originally posted by Larrymc outside of 24 hours accuracy does wane some. The problem with weather forecasts (any forecasts, really) is the lack of confidence intervals about those data.

10-05-2020, 02:46 PM	#70
Belnan Site Supporter Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Nova Scotia Photos: Albums Posts: 1,090	Originally posted by Larrymc Also the strategy of most Meteorologist as well!! And we still listen to them and watch them daily?? Throw enough feces against the wall and some have to stick. Hey, leave the meteorologists alone. Btw I dont count most TV personalities as Meteorologists.

10-05-2020, 03:32 PM - 1 Like	#71
gatorguy Moderator Join Date: Feb 2015 Location: Central Florida Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,093	Originally posted by beachgardener I would not be surprised at all, many showed interest in having a film like look or retro look type camera and along came the KP, we want an aps-c flagship and it is on the way. Many here express the need for video, Pentax do listen to their customers (fans) so it makes sense especially with an articulated screen. Maybe K-90 camera. I dunno... That 4mp looks like overkill.

10-05-2020, 03:40 PM	#72
Larrymc Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Mississippi, USA Posts: 5,252	Originally posted by Belnan Hey, leave the meteorologists alone. Btw I dont count most TV personalities as Meteorologists. Look lighten up as I said it was in jest........OK.

10-05-2020, 05:38 PM - 4 Likes	#73
stevebrot Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Vancouver (USA) Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 42,007	Originally posted by Larrymc Look lighten up as I said it was in jest........OK. There is no jest in the rumors section. All is taken and responded to with deadly seriousness. Steve

10-05-2020, 07:53 PM - 1 Like	#74
Larrymc Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Mississippi, USA Posts: 5,252	Originally posted by stevebrot There is no jest in the rumors section. All is taken and responded to with deadly seriousness. Steve Yep, almost took me out with the shot!!

10-06-2020, 04:54 AM	#75
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,184	Originally posted by Larrymc Yep, almost took me out with the shot!! I am sorry for my contribution, but some members need something to talk about right now. I am generally satisfied taking photos.