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11-12-2008, 10:52 AM   #61
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Cars never crash if you don't drive them.

There's a fitting metaphor.

I sometimes wonder what it would cost to get a Mac that can do all the stuff my PC can do.

Then I realise what it would cost, and when I get out of surgery from having the blood clot removed from my brain, I try not to think about it anymore.

11-12-2008, 11:19 AM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by lithos Quote
Cars never crash if you don't drive them.
crash no, but

your gasoline goes stale

fungus will start to grow in your crank and oil case

tires will get hardspots

battery will die

rubber belts harden

so um, yeah... drive your car, please.
11-12-2008, 12:38 PM   #63
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Really??

I see it this way. If Pentax line dies, all my Pentax goodies become vintage status collectible items that are rarely available stuff on the open market. In that case, I will be able to sale a Pentax glass for 10X the price to Prince of Monaco I will start an auction site for the royals with big fat purses

And I agree completely that someone else will pick up the K mount line. I am a business student. So let me tell you one thing. We have heard about all these analysis/predictions many times in the past. The important thing is how many of those actually matched.

Lets start a scoring system for these analysts and experts. Seriously
11-12-2008, 12:54 PM   #64
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I don't even own a car.

11-12-2008, 01:49 PM   #65
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Hey, neither do I! I guess crashing a car simply isn't a concern for some of us.
11-12-2008, 01:55 PM   #66
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Amend that...

QuoteOriginally posted by tranq78 Quote
For 2009 I predict...

1) My broken analog dial clock will be right twice a day. I boldly guarantee it.

In fact, this broken clock will be right twice a day more often than some self-appointed experts. I also boldy guarantee it.

2) Any consumer electronics company, including camera companies, that has big product launches for late 2008 and 2009 will lose money on said product (line & brand extensions excepted, but including the inevitable inventory writedown). It's a bloodbath out there for most economies and people are hanging on tightly to their wallets right now. At the very least consumers will substitute buying a $2,000 camera for a $500 camera. (Oh, excuse me, isn't selling a down market camera supposed to be a bad idea?)

3) I will be 1 year older. But just as childish as ever.

4) I'm going to need to put more money into repairs for my aging car.

5) When I'm taking landscape photos in the mountains I'll run into another photographer who won't use a tripod but who will have a very expensive camera kit.

#4 PREDICTION CAME TRUE

I just got badly rear ended this morning. Icy road. A young lady was driving too fast for the road conditions, slid, and slammed into the back of my car. The force of the collision then drove the front end of my car into and beneath the truck in front of me. I'm OK, I was actually out of my car (thank Heavens!) helping out another car accident that was blocking the intersection.

I suspect the car may be a complete writeoff - the black book value is less than $2,000 and the damage is well over $3,000. My car is 14 years old and I was hoping to drive it for at least another 2-3 years. If nothing else I need it to drive to Wheatfield's house to pick up his lens collection if he decides to sell.

I am seriously pissed off. And yes one of my predictions has come true already.
11-12-2008, 01:58 PM   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by tranq78 Quote
#4 PREDICTION CAME TRUE

I just got badly rear ended this morning. Icy road. A young lady was driving too fast for the road conditions, slid, and slammed into the back of my car. The force of the collision then drove the front end of my car into and beneath the truck in front of me. I'm OK, I was actually out of my car (thank Heavens!) helping out another car accident that was blocking the intersection.

I suspect the car may be a complete writeoff - the black book value is less than $2,000 and the damage is well over $3,000. My car is 14 years old and I was hoping to drive it for at least another 2-3 years. If nothing else I need it to drive to Wheatfield's house to pick up his lens collection if he decides to sell.

I am seriously pissed off. And yes one of my predictions has come true already.
Sorry that sucks, it's not quite on par with your prediction though. You won't need to shell out anything. Just the person who hit you will be out their deductible.

You'll likely be new car shopping, though.
11-12-2008, 02:56 PM   #68
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The doom and gloom predictions even hit the random camera threads on other non-camera forums...

Need some advice on first SLR purchase. - Page 2 - Mac Forums

11-12-2008, 03:00 PM   #69
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OK, I've tried to ignore Mac vs PC threads whenever they emerge, but sometimes I can't resist.

I'm a Mac guy now, but I have logged my time on many different kinds of machines. I tend to use what offers me the best tools with the least headaches.

For years I ran Amigas. The modern computing experience we know is thanks to the Amiga -- a commodity machine that used co-processors to shoulder the brunt of multimedia work, offering high-bit-depth colour, stereo sound, presented in a nice windowed OS.

When Commodore was flown into the ground by unscrupulous management, I switched to PCs. Macs at that time were very limited -- they had ridden the wave of DTP but were late getting into colour, motion video, etc. And Macs of that time period had a deserved reputation for being expensive. $10,000 workstation, anyone?

I hand-built my PCs for top flight video editing and multimedia. By being a STICKLER with known-compatible parts, things were usually OK, but never guaranteed. And using the consumer-grade Windows was not an option -- only the industrial-grade Windows NT/2000/XP were up to the task.

But these machines need maintenance (software and hardware). Over my ten years with PCs, they averaged one serious failure per month. That gets tiresome, especially when you earn a living from them.

Apple has really changed their value proposition since the 90's. I slowly watched the entry-level Apple machines add performance/functionality/software that I used to have to custom build for my PCs. My first Mac was an iBook G3 that had a fast enough processor, enough RAM, and firewire interfaces, that I was able to edit an entire feature film on it (running Final Cut Pro.)

I still use PCs where I have to/when someone else provides them. But I'm now on my 3rd new Mac (an iMac G5 and a new Macbook Pro). They continue to perform well, and ask very little of me. With the move to Intel processors, a Mac comes with no software restrictions (you can always boot into Windows or run Windows in a virtual machine like Parallels.)

To avoid paying a premium for a Mac, the best strategy is to:

- Buy the bottom-of-the-line machine, and add the maximum amount of RAM (from a third party dealer, not Apple.)
- Buy the "previous" model as soon as the new model is announced. Performance bumps are often minimal and you can save many hundreds of dollars.
- Keep your Mac as long as it does the job for you. This is where my Macs have really beat my PCs. That G3 iBook is still good enough for most DV editing tasks, and I haven't really maxed out the G5 iMac. That Macbook Pro is meant for editing a new generation of super-taxing media (high def video, 4k RED, etc.)

In the last few months I bought a G4 Cube for $40 and a G3 Powerbook for $30. With parts I had lying around, I maxed out the RAM and harddrives in both, and they are very capable computers for word processing, web and Photoshop use. I don't know anyone who is using a PC from the year 2000. In fact, three different friends have bought new PCs simply because they couldn't troubleshoot their machines after having been brought to their knees by bloatware and viruses.

Computers aren't a religion, and one machine isn't going to offer salvation over another. But I have preferences, and don't like to be told that I'm wrong for having them!
11-12-2008, 03:01 PM   #70
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This being a prediction thread, I'll throw in my own $0.02. As we've gotten onto Mac/PC and automotive tangents, I'll go a little bit there, too. And, for what it is worth, I am putting my money where my mouth is: I've been buying cheap Takumars for the sole purpose of reselling them when Pentax market share inches upward--of course, the fact that people are panic-selling now and will be hobby-buying later doesn't hurt.


I don't see Pentax going away. My prediction is that Hoya will neglect the brand. Pentax may, for practical purposes, die off in North America and Western Europe. However, Samsung will buy the Pentax photography division for a bargain and will take off with it. Samsung is the only company I see in a position to do something innovative with consumer photography.

Apple won the portable-music market and is winning the cell phone market by offering usable end-to-end systems. It isn't about product and it isn't about features, which is to say it isn't about producing for consumers what they say they want; it is about producing a system that does what the consumer is trying to do.

Consumer photography (snapshooters and hobbyists, but not professionals) is about capturing, storing, and viewing images. Hobbyists have an intermediate step of manipulating images; hobbyists also have higher standards for each step than snapshooters; but hobbyists and snapshooters are basically trying to do the same thing.

The capturing images part is saturated. Cameras are excellent pretty much across the board, and have been for years.

Storing images is up in the air. Many snapshooters still print stuff out and store 3x5's in albums, although I'm sure their numbers are declining. Most keep images on a hard drive, or archived on a burnt disc--and I'm guessing that many snapshooters simply keep their images on the memory card, treating it as a one-time use, capture and store medium, like film. Hobbyists have the option of using pro-level asset management tools, but those are overkill when they cost about half as much as an entry-level hobbyist kit. iPhoto is the best mid-grade tool I've seen; but, to the best of my knowledge, there's nothing equivalent to it in the PC world. There aren't many tools that are easy to use for storing digital images.

Viewing images has barely changed since film. If you really want to look at a picture, you need to print it. LCD screens are only a poor facsimile of the image as recorded, as they lack both resolution and color depth. Printing is well and good, but that market is saturated and outdated. Like film, printing is expensive and inflexible, and doesn't take advantage of what 1's and 0's can do and have done for other elements of photography.

Samsung is largely a consumer products company. Sony is, too, but Sony hasn't been an effective corporation for some time. Canikon don't really touch consumer products beyond photography. Samsung does computers and TVs and microwaves. Samsung is in the position to design an elegant LCD appliance.

I think the future of photography is in a range of LCD picture frames. Think 300 pixels per inch rather than a current typical 100, or a high resolution screen around 175. If the LCD is high quality, it will be good enough for moderately-critical viewing. Add in some basic asset management, say a hard drive and a cataloguing function (including the ability to easily copy from the library to a card or email address) and maybe basic color correction tools (like red-eye and cropping), and, if easy to use, it'll blow up in the face of the photo-printing business. Frames with different functionalities (think about the iPod lineup) will serve both snapshooters and hobbyists well.

Of course, I'm probably wrong in that it'll be picture frames per se, but rather the killer app will be an electronic photo archiving and viewing appliance of some sort.

My premise is that Samsung wants to be to Sony what Toyota was to Ford. And, if they do the right stuff, they will be. They'll release products that are a bit funky in the current market, but those products will do what a consumer needs and be surprisingly successful. Part of the analogy is that Samsung will be profitable (like Toyota, unlike Ford and Sony). To fully realize the profits of its photography system, Samsung will need to get into lenses for SLRs. To do this, they'll need not just a license to manufacture Pentax-designed bodies and mounts but also Pentax's glass designing know-how.

The only problem with this is that Samsung is a very proud company. I don't see them acquiring the Pentax brand and then using the brand exclusively; they'll put a Samsung badge on their products. That might have some detrimental effect in the short run, especially in brand-conscious USA. But, frankly, a Pentax *line* of lenses sounds like a good market move. Samsung currently brands its lenses "Schneider-Kreuznach," which is laughable for a light, consumer lens. Assuming Samsung has the rights to the S-K brand, I can see them using Pentax as a mass-market lens brand, Pentax-* for mid-market, and S-K for professional glass. All of it would basically be Pentax engineering, though.

Oh, and because Samsung wants to be the best in every market it enters, they will compete with Canikon at the professional level. Which means full-frame sensors. Or larger; there's still a decent ecology of Pentax 645 and 67 glass out there.

In my mind, the future of Pentax is in Korea. And bright.

PS: Mindflux-- sorry to hear about your car. That's a huge hassle, but I'm glad nobody was injured.

Last edited by JonPB; 11-12-2008 at 03:07 PM.
11-12-2008, 04:15 PM   #71
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Ive been running win XP since its beta release, and I haven't had a single BSOD since the beta. I am currently running XP SP3 on a core 2 duo 2.3 ghz w/ 2GB ram as well as a quite old celeron 1.1 ghz w/ 384 MB ram. no problems what so ever. why should I pay more for a glossy white over priced fashion box with a cd slot? I'm no microsoft fan boy I also run Ubuntu Linux 8.10, but I have to say that with all the ridiculous choices for OS customization, unprecidented stability, eas of use, compatability, etc, etc, etc. whats the appeal of apple? I dont quite get it.
11-12-2008, 04:50 PM   #72
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QuoteOriginally posted by séamuis Quote
whats the appeal of apple?
Corners are rounded (screen, windows, buttons).

They also tend to lead the race when it comes to ease of use.
11-12-2008, 04:51 PM   #73
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Has Pentax ever had more than just a small market share? Not in the past 20 years at least, so small amount of market share means business as usual doesn't it?

Don't just collect Takamars. The A*200 macro I bought new in the late '90's sold on this forum for almost double what I paid for it and that was a standard market price. Several other FA* lenses in my stable are currently selling for more than I paid for them too. Great glass holds value!

People who are into keeping up with the Jones probably aren't Pentax Forum types anyway since Pentax has never attempted to keep up with anybody. They dance to the beat of their own drum (insert your own joke here).

The fact that Pentax no longer makes the 67II body doesn't make my 67II's any less phenomenal. I suspect that will be the case with K10D, K20D and subsequent bodies. It may be worth panicking when your favorite camera body dies and can't be repaired, but until then, I'm planning on having a blast using the gear I currently own and enjoy. Since none of us is going to fix the world economy this week, less worry and more photography is probably in order!
11-12-2008, 05:03 PM   #74
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QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
Corners are rounded (screen, windows, buttons).

They also tend to lead the race when it comes to ease of use.

how is OS any easier to use than XP or Vista?
11-12-2008, 05:10 PM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by séamuis Quote
how is OS any easier to use than XP or Vista?
Go use one for a few days and find out. Installing/removing applications, believe it or not is even easier than in Windows. Best of all, no Registry! hooray.

I could rant on and on but for someone who's going to be snarky and doubtful all I can say is go try it for more than a few moments.
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