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11-13-2008, 03:03 PM   #91
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Again, more predictions. You know, the way the economy is going, I'd be surprised if we didn't say goodbye to a lot of companies, including the likes of General Motors, Sony, Chrysler, Ford, Circuit City (oh, wait...), and so forth. The difference between these companies and Pentax is that they'll all die trying to pull the sword out of their middles, while Pentax will likely walk around with the sword in the wound for awhile, and when things get better, go to the doctor. As will many smaller companies who are preparing to hunker down and see what's going to happen.

As for Apple, I don't really care what they sell or who they sell it too, business is business. A company with more cash than Microsoft is a company to be reckoned with.

Also of note: at least at my retail job, Pentax makes us more profit than ANY OTHER brand. Canon there's virtually nothing on, likewise Nikon, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn we're actually losing money selling the Sony A cameras. What this means is, regardless of how the parent company is doing, the fact that Pentax margins are better will translate into more retailers attempting to push them instead of the other brands. Because retailers, too, are in business to make money.

It's the same reason the retail computer market has struggled with the upswing in popularity of Apple's products. Apple's retail margin practically doesn't exist, so most companies would be far happier to sell you a PC clone. If camera shops continue to ignore what Pentax has to offer in this regard, their low-margin Canon and Nikon sales coupled with the consumer's appetite for accessories at the moment could very well put a lot of them out of business.

So, all in all, I'd say it's not a bad strategy. Chopping off your limbs when you run out of meat in the kitchen isn't a very good way to entice your customers, or solve your problems. Isn't debt (read: losses) how we got to this point?

11-13-2008, 04:09 PM   #92
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QuoteOriginally posted by MRRiley Quote
and colored by his bias toward Nikon and Canon. just as my opinion that Pentax is going to be arounds a while yet is based on my biases...
I hear you Mike. I'm not a fan of Pentax or Hoya as companies but I am a K mount fan. As Thom said on the other forum somebody will pick the mount up if Hoya bails which would be fine with me.

The K20D doesn't have everything I want in a body so I've been looking forward to the K30D. If Thom is right we won't be seeing it in 2009 which is a shame.
11-13-2008, 07:25 PM   #93
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
The good news is that Thom Hogan is always wrong in his predictions. The bad new is that he might be right this time.
There are no reasons to be optimistic on Pentax behalf. The financial crisis will hit the entry market hardest where the competition is fiercest.
For a company just taking over Pentax, Hoya has been suspeciously quiet. No vision, staking out new direction, agressive marketing or whatever... things that are expected with a change of owner. They seem to be focused on downsizing the operation while keeping the intelectual properties.
The talks about 645D and FF is possibly more about keeping the engeneers from fleeing the company than realistic product propositions.
Well, I think things are moving in the right direction. Pentax US have reorganized their marketing and I think also here in Canada. I see the KM (K2000 in the US) showing up in big box stores and those are the retailers that you need to have push your product.

Now Penax could take a page out of Canon's book and hold some seminars and wine and dine those sales clerks from the likes of Future Shop; 50 of whom, from around the country, were flown to Toronto for that purpose, and each given a Rebel for themselves at the end of their session. Now those guys and gals are all pushing Canon products.
11-13-2008, 07:25 PM   #94
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
I hear you Mike. I'm not a fan of Pentax or Hoya as companies but I am a K mount fan. As Thom said on the other forum somebody will pick the mount up if Hoya bails which would be fine with me.

The K20D doesn't have everything I want in a body so I've been looking forward to the K30D. If Thom is right we won't be seeing it in 2009 which is a shame.
I dont know either but I am very sure Thom doesnt.

11-15-2008, 05:48 AM   #95
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QuoteOriginally posted by fwbigd Quote
Who the hell is Thom Hogan
as far as i am concerned we Pentaxians should write him a letter each and tell him to kiss our arses

Dave
11-15-2008, 06:05 AM   #96
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on a serious note
what people like Thom Hogan needs to do, is to do a visual check on very popular forums like DP Review and Steves Digicams, and watch how many members are using between Nikon, Canon, and pentax and he would see that Pentax holds approx. 3 yes 3 times more members,
so he should be talking about Nikons future which only holds half of canon users.

You think Pentax/Hoya stupid, they are deliberatly dropping the price on the now popular K20D so as to corner the market, in this global economic situtation, and are getting the sales to prove it, so as in turn if the consumers are buying pentax, who is buying Nikon.

Dave
11-15-2008, 06:48 AM   #97
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QuoteOriginally posted by dafiryde Quote
on a serious note
what people like Thom Hogan needs to do, is to do a visual check on very popular forums like DP Review and Steves Digicams, and watch how many members are using between Nikon, Canon, and pentax and he would see that Pentax holds approx. 3 yes 3 times more members,
so he should be talking about Nikons future which only holds half of canon users.

You think Pentax/Hoya stupid, they are deliberatly dropping the price on the now popular K20D so as to corner the market, in this global economic situtation, and are getting the sales to prove it, so as in turn if the consumers are buying pentax, who is buying Nikon.

Dave
I think the demographic for the various forums can be explained by the fact Pentax users have researched and/or more serious about their photography.

I am not suggesting Canon/Nikon users are ignorant or stupid by this statement. These brands simply have the bulk of the people who have bought a dSLR just for the sake of it without being top enthusiasts. I mean, the average Joe entering the store with out a clue is more likely to sold a Canon or Nikon because of their brand presence and sales pushes. However, the average Joe is new to photography and might be treating it like a P&S, their interest does not extend to forums and such as yet.

Pentax, on the other hand is more elusive to find. There are countless threads about the difficulty in finding Pentax gear in local stores. That leads to Pentax users to think longer and harder about what they want and if it is worth it. Look at the new members arriving here on this forum with me. We all have bought a Pentax because we believed in the product in our pursuit for better photography. We have not been swayed by pushy sales people saying, "You want WHAT???"

Having said that, I do not believe the average Joe now looking at a Km/K2000 from your big box department store will be rushing onto forums like ours. They want a simple dSLR that does that bit more than their P&S. However, down the road it may encourage some of them to look further in Pentax's range and a small percentage will come here.
11-15-2008, 07:14 AM   #98
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Although I find threads like this one entertaining (in small doses), I also find that they almost invariably adhere to Sailor's Emperical Rule: the informational value of a thread is inversely proportional to its length. This thread is no exception.

The fact is none of us - and that includes Thom Whatshisname - really know what the future path of Pentax or the K-mount will look like. We don't have a clear undestanding of the thinking inside Pentax, nor - and this may be ultimately more important - do we know Samsung's long-term intentions.

We do know, however, that the gear we have in hand - today - is capable of producing highly satisfying images; the data supporting that assertion show up every day in the Post Your Photos section of the forum. We don't have to devine the future to enjoy our cameras now - and I plan to use mine this afternoon on what promises to be a beautiful, cloudless day in SE Texas.

Jer

11-15-2008, 07:53 AM   #99
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A bit like the 80 year old gypsy with Alzhiemers Disease.

With her crystal ball she could accurately predict the future but forget what it was she predicted before she could tell anyone.
11-15-2008, 12:16 PM   #100
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For the last 5 years Canon main source of income is thru p&s cameras
nikon pays endorsement fees to professional phototgraphers , and big photohouses to use and advertise their product.
The point i was trying to make is not about Quality, in laymans terms, from a business point of view, it is not how good your item is, but how much of it you are selling.
and from what i see so far Pentax is cutting their arses in year end sales, which at the end of the year , is what counts!!!!!!!!!!

Dave

Last edited by dafiryde; 11-15-2008 at 02:56 PM.
11-15-2008, 04:13 PM   #101
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Honestly, I don't understand why we even give predictions like this legitimacy by talking about them.

When I was looking to buy my first Pentax camera, I was put off at first by how many people were talking doom and gloom, but decided to hell with it.

How many look elsewhere, I wonder?
11-15-2008, 05:54 PM   #102
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QuoteOriginally posted by cpopham Quote
Honestly, I don't understand why we even give predictions like this legitimacy by talking about them.

When I was looking to buy my first Pentax camera, I was put off at first by how many people were talking doom and gloom, but decided to hell with it.

How many look elsewhere, I wonder?
I for one did plenty of research last year October 2007, which was when i sold all that i had, which was in Minolta/Konica/Sony. and decided to start over.
i came up with Pentax for many reasons.
all you see in my signature, is Pentax brand, of great quality and affordable to the average consumer. if i had to buy the same in canon or nikon brand , it would have cost at least 2.5 times more. But for 2.5 times less, i still am able to get top notch Quality. and i have never seen or heard of any picture that a Nikon can get that a Pentax could not.
some time back i read on a forum where this guy explained that people usually take pictures to show off his/her work, but if you take boring shots, no matter who expensive you gear is, it will still be boring. and if you take a great shot most likely the viewer would not look for how many lines of resolution it holds..

Bottom line Pentax is a great , affordable system that i am proud to own.

So Thom Hogan can kiss my ass

Dave
11-16-2008, 10:11 PM   #103
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Thom is actually fairly accurate about Nikon, but not the market in general. He's fun to read and is in many ways the closest "journalist/industry insider" there is. He is quote thorough.

One thing he misses is the idea that the high end will be OK as the mid and low scramble for market share. Cameras are like toilet paper: almost everyone needs one. In a pinch, they'll buy cheap to get the job done.

So, the high end which is dependent on sports (see the life get sucked out of sports sponsorships as the auto industry trembles), fashion (Wal-Mart sells on the cheap), advertising (often one of the easiest budgets to cut), and, of course, the very price sensitive prosumer/advanced hobbyist are the market segments about to take the hit. The latter are where Nikon and Canon live. All those promos these 2 companies hand out to peddle their high-end products is going to take a toll on the bottom line. We'll see it in the balance sheets in the quarter after Christmas. Cuts will have to come.

Canon will be fine as it embraces the whole market. Sony may not as it is bleeding cash and must cut promos and, for Sony who uses premium pricing on its P&S line, this means trouble. Nikon will probably be OK, but its weak presence in P&S means revenue in the mid to upper is fragile. Look for Nikon to take a hit. Also, their balance sheet is not too good. They do have an excellent line on technical merits and a loyal base. As well, they are smart about pricing (the D40 may stick around even). Panny will be OK because of the deep pockets and some smart moves, but look for them to slow development. Pentax needs to duck its head, trim costs and push its P&S to make up for losses coming in the higher price ranges. not making a FF camera now is a smart move as the returns would simply not be there. Pentax has a good durable line of P&S's. Price and market them right, they'll muddle through. Same for Olympus. In down times, the average consumer actually looks more for durability in a product vs. the expendable. Ironically, Fuji should be OK as well as they have little in the upper end to rely on for revenue. They can simply slug it out in their comfort zone.

A lot of these companies will need to look at different financing models though. Japanese industrials are pretty savvy at surviving bear markets given the last 20 years. They have much longer planning horizons and are not bound by quarterly shareholder pressures.

One company that will have trouble is Kodak. Last I looked they're highly indebted and have a weak balance sheet. They got financing on a very strong intellectual capital profile. but they might be a prime target for consolidation (Samsung?).

Lens makers will get nailed. These are considered add-ons and are mid to high products only. Hard to tell about their balance sheets, but I suspect Sigma, Tamron and Tokina to struggle. Leica is likely in deep, deep trouble, but what's new. It's some rich guy's hobby.

The top consumer products is going to get creamed as it always does in a deflationary spiral. I think Thom is too used to high-end gear that he forgets that is what most would call fat, and what gets trimmed first. Cameras as a consumable generally have better staying power in tough times. In fact, the lean years of the late 1970's and early 1980's were golden years for camera makers. Photography was a growth sector in the Depression.
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