Thom Predictions Don't Look Good for Pentax

Kunzite · 11-11-2008, 10:13 AM

Pal: Quiet doesn't mean they're sitting idle, you know? I'm sure they have a vision, it's just we don't know it yet

Livewireshock · 11-11-2008, 10:29 AM

It is all abit like Chicken Little.

When I finish looking at the tea leaves I have in the palm of my hand, staring at them through my crystal ball, then I will accurately predict the future.

Actually if I could predict the future I would back the next winners on several horse races, win the lottery and thus afford to buy what ever camera system I like and satisfy any LBA afflictions I have.

Until then I will continue to keep feeding the pigs and driving them to the airport.

**rparmar** · 11-11-2008, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Wheatfield

The K-m strategy is starting to look like a bunch of Japanese suits falling on their swords.

Yes, I sure would hate to have a piece of the largest DSLR market there is... the beginner market. Better instead to concede it all to my competitors.

5% of a big number is still a big number.

0% of a big number is always zero.

**GaryM** · 11-11-2008, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Pål Jensen

The good news is that Thom Hogan is always wrong in his predictions. The bad new is that he might be right this time.
There are no reasons to be optimistic on Pentax behalf. The financial crisis will hit the entry market hardest where the competition is fiercest.
For a company just taking over Pentax, Hoya has been suspeciously quiet. No vision, staking out new direction, agressive marketing or whatever... things that are expected with a change of owner. They seem to be focused on downsizing the operation while keeping the intelectual properties.
The talks about 645D and FF is possibly more about keeping the engeneers from fleeing the company than realistic product propositions.

Good post. When Sony aquired K/M they pretty much let everyone know right away that they planned on grabbing market share, and they have in a big way with lots of new products. Hoya has been very quiet with Pentax, and Samsung has not been as aggressive as I hoped they would be. Of course, the rapidly deteriorating global economy has changed everything, and companies are hunkering down to survive. All this doom and gloom has not been good for Pentax over the last few years, and I know I have resisted investing too much in Pentax gear because of insecurity about the future of the system. Not a good place to be! That's why it's probably best for Pentax owners to spend less time in forums and more time shooting. I think I'll take my own advice

Kunzite · 11-11-2008, 11:12 AM

Last time I've checked, Sony had huge loses from it's camera division. If that's the key to success, yes, it's a pity Hoya is not following the same path

RaduA · 11-11-2008, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by rparmar

Yes, I sure would hate to have a piece of the largest DSLR market there is... the beginner market. Better instead to concede it all to my competitors.

5% of a big number is still a big number.

Even more so 5+5%

0% of a big number is always zero.

............

raz-0 · 11-11-2008, 11:35 AM

Pentax is looking at rough waters ahead just like everyone else. The product they make isn't dominant with professionals, and hobbies are some of the first things to get hit hard when the economy is hard.

One thing I think his predictions is very wrong on is Sony's position in the world of photography. Sony lost a LOT of money this year. A lot. Their DSLR division might not have lost as much as some other divisions, but it is on the losing side of the ledger book, and Sony is going to have to do something to stop the bleeding. They can't really affford to axe blu-ray and the PS3, but in the face of losses and not much upside, the DSLR business and cutting back on P&S and camcorder offerings might be in the works.

cateto · 11-11-2008, 11:53 AM

I remember plenty (and I do mean PLENTY) of respected tech gurus who predicted, in the late 90s/early 2000s that Apple was going to die, for sure, no doubt: its market share was climbing to disappear completely and nobody was interested on Macs anymore.

Just saying!

Gooshin · 11-11-2008, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by cateto

I remember plenty (and I do mean PLENTY) of respected tech gurus who predicted, in the late 90s/early 2000s that Apple was going to die, for sure, no doubt: its market share was climbing to disappear completely and nobody was interested on Macs anymore.

Just saying!

how much of the world computer market share does apple currently occupy?

fwbigd · 11-11-2008, 12:17 PM

IMHO Pentax/Hoya has given up the US market. They have no sale reps and the independent camera stores aren't replacing their stock because the don't know to order from. https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/37736-availability-pen...ra-stores.html

VR
Darryl

Livewireshock · 11-11-2008, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Kunzite

Last time I've checked, Sony had huge loses from it's camera division. If that's the key to success, yes, it's a pity Hoya is not following the same path

Sony is facing big losses across many of it's divisions, not just cameras. It has proven to be an Annus Horribuls for them in many ways.

**GaryM** · 11-11-2008, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by fwbigd

IMHO Pentax/Hoya has given up the US market. They have no sale reps and the independent camera stores aren't replacing their stock because the don't know to order from. https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/37736-availability-pen...ra-stores.html

VR
Darryl

No, just the brick-and-mortar retail store US market. And we have yet to see whether the K2000 sneaks into some big chains. For better or worse, Pentax seems to be betting on the internet for the US. They do have a decent sales ranking with Amazon, for what it's worth.

cateto · 11-11-2008, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Gooshin

how much of the world computer market share does apple currently occupy?

I just posted a longer article in my blog, explaining my point in detail. Maybe you are interested.

But regarding your question, please have a look here:
AppleInsider | Apple earnings, profits, and cash embarrass Microsoft

I quote that article:

"Apple earnings, profits, and cash embarrass Microsoft

By Prince McLean
Published: 06:00 PM EST

While Microsoft executives like to talk about Apple as an insignificant company with less than 5% of the worldwide market share of all PCs and servers sold, the Mac maker now has more cash than Microsoft and earns more than half of its profits and over three fourths its revenues.

For the quarter ending in September, Microsoft released revenues of $15.06 billion, net profits of $4.37 billion, and a reserve of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments that added up to $20.7 billion.

Apple reported $7.9 billion in revenues and $1.14 billion in net profit, but those numbers don't include most of its iPhone business, which is hidden away in subscription accounting under GAAP rules. For that reason, Apple also released its real earnings: $11.68 billion in revenue and $2.44 billion in net profits. The company also reported a cash position of $24.5 billion.

Microsoft's quarterly revenues grew by 9%, compared to Apple's non-GAAP revenue increase of 75.1% year over year."

In short: market share is not the only important thing in business. Ask Mercedes. Ask Porsche. Ask BMW. Or ask Apple.

And I wholeheartedly expect that Pentax/Hoya will give the same answers as the companies mentioned above can give today.

cpopham · 11-11-2008, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by GaryM

No, just the brick-and-mortar retail store US market. And we have yet to see whether the K2000 sneaks into some big chains. For better or worse, Pentax seems to be betting on the internet for the US. They do have a decent sales ranking with Amazon, for what it's worth.

To be quite frank, it seems like they may just be concentrating on selling their available stock in countries where either exchange rates or the economic situation result in more money for them.

Just one week ago I bought a K20. I did not have to order it, the shop had two! plus a display model on the shelf, a K200, and several lenses.

This is from a shop which less than a year ago had no Pentax stock at all, and wasn't terribly thrilled about ordering.

regken · 11-11-2008, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Gooshin

something they dont always teach you in school is that "do nothing" is a viable business strategy,

This is exactly why I didn't jump right up with my prediction on your "Put your money where your mouth is" thread. I don't expect a new body announcement until Nov. 2009 with a release near PMA 2010. The next 12 months should be very stagnant as far as any new products go.

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11-11-2008, 10:13 AM	#16
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	Pal: Quiet doesn't mean they're sitting idle, you know? I'm sure they have a vision, it's just we don't know it yet

11-11-2008, 10:29 AM	#17
Livewireshock Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Lismore, NSW, Australia Photos: Gallery Posts: 144	It is all abit like Chicken Little. When I finish looking at the tea leaves I have in the palm of my hand, staring at them through my crystal ball, then I will accurately predict the future. Actually if I could predict the future I would back the next winners on several horse races, win the lottery and thus afford to buy what ever camera system I like and satisfy any LBA afflictions I have. Until then I will continue to keep feeding the pigs and driving them to the airport.

11-11-2008, 10:54 AM	#18
rparmar Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2008 Photos: Gallery Posts: 8,823	Originally posted by Wheatfield The K-m strategy is starting to look like a bunch of Japanese suits falling on their swords. Yes, I sure would hate to have a piece of the largest DSLR market there is... the beginner market. Better instead to concede it all to my competitors. 5% of a big number is still a big number. 0% of a big number is always zero.

11-11-2008, 10:58 AM	#19
GaryM Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Montclair, CA Photos: Gallery Posts: 426	Originally posted by Pål Jensen The good news is that Thom Hogan is always wrong in his predictions. The bad new is that he might be right this time. There are no reasons to be optimistic on Pentax behalf. The financial crisis will hit the entry market hardest where the competition is fiercest. For a company just taking over Pentax, Hoya has been suspeciously quiet. No vision, staking out new direction, agressive marketing or whatever... things that are expected with a change of owner. They seem to be focused on downsizing the operation while keeping the intelectual properties. The talks about 645D and FF is possibly more about keeping the engeneers from fleeing the company than realistic product propositions. Good post. When Sony aquired K/M they pretty much let everyone know right away that they planned on grabbing market share, and they have in a big way with lots of new products. Hoya has been very quiet with Pentax, and Samsung has not been as aggressive as I hoped they would be. Of course, the rapidly deteriorating global economy has changed everything, and companies are hunkering down to survive. All this doom and gloom has not been good for Pentax over the last few years, and I know I have resisted investing too much in Pentax gear because of insecurity about the future of the system. Not a good place to be! That's why it's probably best for Pentax owners to spend less time in forums and more time shooting. I think I'll take my own advice

11-11-2008, 11:12 AM	#20
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	Last time I've checked, Sony had huge loses from it's camera division. If that's the key to success, yes, it's a pity Hoya is not following the same path

11-11-2008, 11:35 AM	#21
RaduA Guest	Originally posted by rparmar Yes, I sure would hate to have a piece of the largest DSLR market there is... the beginner market. Better instead to concede it all to my competitors. 5% of a big number is still a big number. Even more so 5+5% 0% of a big number is always zero. ............

11-11-2008, 11:35 AM	#22
raz-0 Veteran Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Central NJ Posts: 470	Pentax is looking at rough waters ahead just like everyone else. The product they make isn't dominant with professionals, and hobbies are some of the first things to get hit hard when the economy is hard. One thing I think his predictions is very wrong on is Sony's position in the world of photography. Sony lost a LOT of money this year. A lot. Their DSLR division might not have lost as much as some other divisions, but it is on the losing side of the ledger book, and Sony is going to have to do something to stop the bleeding. They can't really affford to axe blu-ray and the PS3, but in the face of losses and not much upside, the DSLR business and cutting back on P&S and camcorder offerings might be in the works.

11-11-2008, 11:53 AM	#23
cateto Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Spain Posts: 189	I remember plenty (and I do mean PLENTY) of respected tech gurus who predicted, in the late 90s/early 2000s that Apple was going to die, for sure, no doubt: its market share was climbing to disappear completely and nobody was interested on Macs anymore. Just saying!

11-11-2008, 12:03 PM	#24
Gooshin Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Toronto, the one in Canada. Posts: 5,610	Originally posted by cateto I remember plenty (and I do mean PLENTY) of respected tech gurus who predicted, in the late 90s/early 2000s that Apple was going to die, for sure, no doubt: its market share was climbing to disappear completely and nobody was interested on Macs anymore. Just saying! how much of the world computer market share does apple currently occupy?

11-11-2008, 12:17 PM	#25
fwbigd Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Fort Worth TX Posts: 339 Original Poster	IMHO Pentax/Hoya has given up the US market. They have no sale reps and the independent camera stores aren't replacing their stock because the don't know to order from. https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/37736-availability-pen...ra-stores.html VR Darryl

11-11-2008, 12:21 PM	#26
Livewireshock Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Lismore, NSW, Australia Photos: Gallery Posts: 144	Originally posted by Kunzite Last time I've checked, Sony had huge loses from it's camera division. If that's the key to success, yes, it's a pity Hoya is not following the same path Sony is facing big losses across many of it's divisions, not just cameras. It has proven to be an Annus Horribuls for them in many ways.

11-11-2008, 12:58 PM	#27
GaryM Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Montclair, CA Photos: Gallery Posts: 426	Originally posted by fwbigd IMHO Pentax/Hoya has given up the US market. They have no sale reps and the independent camera stores aren't replacing their stock because the don't know to order from. https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/37736-availability-pen...ra-stores.html VR Darryl No, just the brick-and-mortar retail store US market. And we have yet to see whether the K2000 sneaks into some big chains. For better or worse, Pentax seems to be betting on the internet for the US. They do have a decent sales ranking with Amazon, for what it's worth.

11-11-2008, 01:00 PM	#28
cateto Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Spain Posts: 189	Originally posted by Gooshin how much of the world computer market share does apple currently occupy? I just posted a longer article in my blog, explaining my point in detail. Maybe you are interested. But regarding your question, please have a look here: AppleInsider \| Apple earnings, profits, and cash embarrass Microsoft I quote that article: "Apple earnings, profits, and cash embarrass Microsoft By Prince McLean Published: 06:00 PM EST While Microsoft executives like to talk about Apple as an insignificant company with less than 5% of the worldwide market share of all PCs and servers sold, the Mac maker now has more cash than Microsoft and earns more than half of its profits and over three fourths its revenues. For the quarter ending in September, Microsoft released revenues of $15.06 billion, net profits of $4.37 billion, and a reserve of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments that added up to $20.7 billion. Apple reported $7.9 billion in revenues and $1.14 billion in net profit, but those numbers don't include most of its iPhone business, which is hidden away in subscription accounting under GAAP rules. For that reason, Apple also released its real earnings: $11.68 billion in revenue and $2.44 billion in net profits. The company also reported a cash position of $24.5 billion. Microsoft's quarterly revenues grew by 9%, compared to Apple's non-GAAP revenue increase of 75.1% year over year." In short: market share is not the only important thing in business. Ask Mercedes. Ask Porsche. Ask BMW. Or ask Apple. And I wholeheartedly expect that Pentax/Hoya will give the same answers as the companies mentioned above can give today.

11-11-2008, 01:27 PM	#29
cpopham Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Auckland Posts: 553	Originally posted by GaryM No, just the brick-and-mortar retail store US market. And we have yet to see whether the K2000 sneaks into some big chains. For better or worse, Pentax seems to be betting on the internet for the US. They do have a decent sales ranking with Amazon, for what it's worth. To be quite frank, it seems like they may just be concentrating on selling their available stock in countries where either exchange rates or the economic situation result in more money for them. Just one week ago I bought a K20. I did not have to order it, the shop had two! plus a display model on the shelf, a K200, and several lenses. This is from a shop which less than a year ago had no Pentax stock at all, and wasn't terribly thrilled about ordering.

11-11-2008, 01:32 PM	#30
regken Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Bangor, Maine Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,377	Originally posted by Gooshin something they dont always teach you in school is that "do nothing" is a viable business strategy, This is exactly why I didn't jump right up with my prediction on your "Put your money where your mouth is" thread. I don't expect a new body announcement until Nov. 2009 with a release near PMA 2010. The next 12 months should be very stagnant as far as any new products go.