Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
03-17-2021, 10:47 AM   #391
Site Supporter
Site Supporter




Join Date: Dec 2012
Photos: Albums
Posts: 2,352
QuoteOriginally posted by luftfluss Quote
If people really like what Pentax is offering with the K-3 III, a couple hundred dollars is not going to drive customers away.

Pentax would be better off selling 10,000 K-3 III's at $1900 USD per unit than 12,000 at $1400.
Yes, but does it scale that way? Is a $500 (or 36%) increase in price only cost them 17% in sales? I tend to think of the price/sales relationship as being more exponential or at least linear. I'd expect a 36% increase in price to cut sales by at least 30-40%, maybe more. The break-even point on $1900 vs $1400 would be something like 5400 at the higher price vs 12000 at the lower, if you assume the cost of producing the camera is $1000.

It's also dependent on the cost to Ricoh. If a camera costs them $750 to make you need to sell about 7000 of them at $1900 to equal the profits on 12000 at $1400. If the cost is $500 to make it's more like 7500.

We really don't know two key variables: How much does it cost Ricoh to make the camera, and how sensitive to price is the market?

03-17-2021, 10:49 AM   #392
Site Supporter
Site Supporter




Join Date: May 2019
Photos: Albums
Posts: 5,304
QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
I don't know the market, but I envision something like this:

Ditch MF. I believe the competition has advanced too far for Pentax to catch up and make a profit.


DSLR

2 FF - one low mp, and one high mp

2 APS - a flagship, and an entry level

Mirrorless
1 FF (add a second model a few years later)


Put them on a 5 year cycle.

I think it would be a mistake to get out of the entry level market.

Not an expert, just an opinion.
The MF competition is Fuji only, so not so problematic.
On the other hand, mirrorless when LV in Pentax cameras can be best defined as "it exists" is basically suicidal.
03-17-2021, 10:54 AM   #393
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
jersey's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: 3City agglomeration
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 879
QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Yes.


Low end product and high-end product often deliver the maximum ROI. That's because an entry level product that seem generate a loss, actually contribute to load production lines, which offset fixed costs, so that when the high-end product is added to the mix, the combination of both low-end and high-end product is more profitable that the high-end only product. That's why two types of costs are being considered: total unit cost and marginal unit cost. So basically, you could lower the price just above the marginal cost on the low cost product and still generate a higher total profit than having just one high end product for sale, even if the low-end product looks like it's making a loss when accounted alone. I believe Canon are just doing that.
Depends on organisation really. With few products available it is often cheaper to start/stop short production runs and offer only high end product or outsource production of low end ones.


Sure, having the market presence maintained with low end products to have content users switch to higher end or even have the brand known is good strategy, but can Pentax afford it?
03-17-2021, 10:58 AM - 1 Like   #394
Pentaxian




Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Washington State
Posts: 586
QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
The question is where do you set your "entry level"?
If Pentax truly aspires to be a "premium" brand, something like the current KP might be entirely appropriate
That seems about right, $700-$900. Pentax has a lot of non-premium lenses (not star or limited). If they just went premium, they'll have to upgrade a lot of lenses.

03-17-2021, 11:04 AM   #395
retired sw engineer
Loyal Site Supporter
reh321's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: South Bend, IN, USA
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 20,542
QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
That seems about right, $700-$900. Pentax has a lot of non-premium lenses (not star or limited). If they just went premium, they'll have to upgrade a lot of lenses.
With the vast store of old lenses {even just ‘F’ and ‘FA’ lenses} out there, they probably could focus on upgrading most of them.

Last edited by reh321; 03-17-2021 at 01:24 PM.
03-17-2021, 12:00 PM   #396
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
mikecnorthwest's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 118
QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Those "current customers" aren't doing anything for the bottom line.

The democratization of photography being something for the masses isn't ending, people will always have cell phones with ever increasingly sophisticated built in cameras, but going forward, if you want real camera gear, it is going to cost real money.
Truth.

---------- Post added 03-17-21 at 12:13 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by hoosierdome Quote
I Love how everyone is a CEO and has the whole camera industry figured out.
I think the underlying economics are not specific to the camera industry. Pentax is not immune to supply and demand/competition. And perhaps this is a case of Pentax feeling one way while Ricoh see's things differently. Lemono has said as much in a previous comment.
03-17-2021, 12:42 PM   #397
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
luftfluss's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: NJ
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 9,229
QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Yes, but does it scale that way? Is a $500 (or 36%) increase in price only cost them 17% in sales? I tend to think of the price/sales relationship as being more exponential or at least linear. I'd expect a 36% increase in price to cut sales by at least 30-40%, maybe more. The break-even point on $1900 vs $1400 would be something like 5400 at the higher price vs 12000 at the lower, if you assume the cost of producing the camera is $1000.

It's also dependent on the cost to Ricoh. If a camera costs them $750 to make you need to sell about 7000 of them at $1900 to equal the profits on 12000 at $1400. If the cost is $500 to make it's more like 7500.

We really don't know two key variables: How much does it cost Ricoh to make the camera, and how sensitive to price is the market?
I agree with you, we don't know anyting about the costs associated with the camera and new features that may be amortized across future models.

I still think, though, that it would be a mistake for Pentax to under-price the new camera to drive sales. The most recent APS-C flagship was the $1700 Fuji X-T4, and according to Fuji it has sold well, and I have seen enough buzz and enthusiasm for it that I believe them. The K-3 III will be the flagship APS-C OVF model, and it makes sense to price it accordingly... and if that means sloughing off some bargain-hunters, then so be it. I say this as someone whose most expensive camera has been a NOB K-3 II, which my family got me as a gift 3 years ago for $700, so the K-3 III will be out of my financial comfort zone... but I think this is the best way for Pentax to survive. When I have/need to replace my current cameras, I will need to either "buck up" and open my wallet, or be satisfied with a lower-tier or used camera. But I don't think people like me can be the drivers for a successful Pentax; we have to be the passengers.

03-17-2021, 12:46 PM - 1 Like   #398
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
luftfluss's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: NJ
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 9,229
QuoteOriginally posted by jersey Quote
I know that, I was saying the same in K-3/3 price thread. But how many current customers are thinking so and how many new will be willing to spent money on unknown gear with negative presence in social media?
I don't know, but I think you hit on a key factor: social media. I don't Facebook, Twitter, etc myself, but I would think Pentax could have a very good ROI if they would follow Fuji's example and populate social media with talented & enthusiastic users.
03-17-2021, 12:52 PM   #399
Pentaxian




Join Date: Feb 2015
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 9,799
QuoteOriginally posted by jersey Quote
Depends on organisation really.
Yes. The problem is, if I'm the CEO in this discussion, we need to make a meeting with the CFO and management accounting team to evaluate. One person alone can't decide what Ricoh shoud do, it's a complex task, we need to setup a forum task force first. Then we can work of the business case of Ricoh-Pentax cameras. Come up with suggestions for Ricoh how they should manage the camera business.

---------- Post added 17-03-21 at 20:55 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
That seems about right, $700-$900. Pentax has a lot of non-premium lenses (not star or limited). If they just went premium, they'll have to upgrade a lot of lenses.
$700-$900 is a wide range. Do we have the exact figures from Ricoh internal market research reports?
03-17-2021, 01:24 PM   #400
Pentaxian




Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 2,627
QuoteOriginally posted by luftfluss Quote
I don't know, but I think you hit on a key factor: social media. I don't Facebook, Twitter, etc myself, but I would think Pentax could have a very good ROI if they would follow Fuji's example and populate social media with talented & enthusiastic users.
That's extremely difficult for a brand like Pentax. Ricoh's GR content is miles ahead of their Pentax content because the GR attracts the "right" people. As of yet Pentaxians are extremely unsuitable for social media... If they harness the 67 shooting young people and somehow turn them onto digital slr's perhaps they have a shot. Actually it might be a good idea to try to dump a few K-3 III's with the upcoming da*16-50 and a few da limiteds on some analoge youtubers. Just to see their reactions. Risky business though as they might hate it or refuse.

Interestingly Pentax has already produced youtube videos with someone shooting 67, japanese guy shooting trains if I remember correctly.
03-17-2021, 03:30 PM - 2 Likes   #401
Pentaxian
Wheatfield's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The wheatfields of Canada
Posts: 13,794
QuoteOriginally posted by hoosierdome Quote
I Love how everyone is a CEO and has the whole camera industry figured out.
I love how people revert to group ad hominem attacks when they have nothing left.
03-18-2021, 01:27 AM - 1 Like   #402
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
RobA_Oz's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Tasmania, Australia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 7,339
QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
Ditch MF. I believe the competition has advanced too far for Pentax to catch up and make a profit.
Is that actually the case? Fujifilm has added megapixels, SR and lightness (to paraphrase Colin Chapman), but they’ve created a MF camera style that sets itself up against the top-level 35mm sensor cameras. Not everyone who looks to MF wants a style like that, and they don’t all want an EVF. Ricoh could update the 645Z with a newer sensor and some of the technology from the K-3iii for much less investment than Fujifilm has had to outlay, and it would knock a bit of the shine off Fujifilm sales.

They’ve also had to create a lens catalogue from scratch, and it’s not complete yet, probably by a long chalk.

Like you, I don’t know the numbers involved, but I’ve assumed Ricoh will have generated them for scenarios like the above, and I’d be surprised if they haven’t.
03-18-2021, 01:51 AM   #403
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
MMVIII's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: EU
Posts: 1,006
QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Is that actually the case? Fujifilm has added megapixels, SR and lightness (to paraphrase Colin Chapman), but theyíve created a MF camera style that sets itself up against the top-level 35mm sensor cameras. Not everyone who looks to MF wants a style like that, and they donít all want an EVF. Ricoh could update the 645Z with a newer sensor and some of the technology from the K-3iii for much less investment than Fujifilm has had to outlay, and it would knock a bit of the shine off Fujifilm sales.

Theyíve also had to create a lens catalogue from scratch, and itís not complete yet, probably by a long chalk.

Like you, I donít know the numbers involved, but Iíve assumed Ricoh will have generated them for scenarios like the above, and Iíd be surprised if they havenít.
I also don't know numbers

Just one thought:
If Pentax scales up the OVF technology of the K-3 III for K-1III it could give MF size viewfinder with a smaller body. If it also had a new stacked sensor (better a second generation one, the one in the Sony α1 does not be the best in IQ in high ISO) with 50 Mp it would make the cropped medium resolution 645 somehow redundant. I know it's more to 645 than that, but with viewfinder size and IQ two things could be covered wit K-mount-cameras. A 645 to K adapter with full functionality would allow to use the lenses, of course with a higher crop factor.

But, as so often, I don't know anything about their plans.
03-18-2021, 02:49 AM - 5 Likes   #404
Loyal Site Supporter
Loyal Site Supporter




Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Gladys, Virginia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 24,505
QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
I don't know the market, but I envision something like this:

Ditch MF. I believe the competition has advanced too far for Pentax to catch up and make a profit.


DSLR

2 FF - one low mp, and one high mp

2 APS - a flagship, and an entry level

Mirrorless
1 FF (add a second model a few years later)


Put them on a 5 year cycle.

I think it would be a mistake to get out of the entry level market.

Not an expert, just an opinion.
I have thought that Pentax could continue medium format by going with a "full frame" medium format sensor like Phase One uses. That's the sort of move that Fuji can't counter -- their mount is too small to incorporate such a sensor.

Overall, I have no idea why people think that Pentax releasing the K-3 III indicates that there will be no lower level gear from them in the future. They currently have the K-70 and a plethora of APS-C lenses that sell for 300 or less. I am glad that they are gradually filling in the upper tier of lenses. We didn't need another kit lens, but rather higher end primes. Regardless, when they replace the K-70 the sequel will probably be a bit more expensive, but I don't expect it to be more than 650 or 700 dollars. Pentax really is smart with their pricing and they keep their cameras priced similarly to cameras from other brands.

Going forward, it seems to me they need to do a few things.

1. Double down on who they are. Pentax makes SLRs. They make nice viewfinders and cameras with tough builds. They have nice little features like astro tracer. They really need to continue doing those sorts of things and be the brand that has taken the other path. MILCs will be a blood bath and Pentax wouldn't match up well with those brands, but there will still be plenty of people who are interested in the sort of gear Pentax brings to the table.

2. Don't sell gear for a loss. This is clearly what sank Olympus. You can sell a lot of cameras at deep discounts, but while this will gain you market share, it is not a long term plan for success. This doesn't mean that Pentax needs to double their prices, but good gear is worth paying a bit for.

3. Do a little better at communicating. I have been pleased with the trickle of videos coming out since the K-3 III was delayed. It is nice to see, but Pentax could do a little bit better at sharing what they are working on. I know the fear is that someone will steal their ideas or match them, but honestly, I don't think Sony/Canon/Nikon are particularly concerned with Pentax right now and the idea that one of them would release a K-3 III killer is a bit silly.

4. Decide on a schedule for releases. There is a tendency to release gear when it is done and that is fine -- sort of. But I think more regular releases of cameras and lenses would be more beneficial.

As someone earlier in this thread mentioned, I am not a camera company CEO or even a CFO so these thoughts are probably not particularly helpful, but I do think more than anything Pentax needs to be who they are. They probably can't catch Canon and Nikon's tech without a huge investment of funds (which seems unlikely to happen), but that doesn't mean that they can't make a go of it for years to come if they are a great alternative that is doing something different from the main players.
03-18-2021, 02:51 AM - 6 Likes   #405
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
ffking's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Llanelli, Wales
Posts: 5,586
QuoteOriginally posted by luftfluss Quote
Create products people want, and they will buy it... just ask Apple.
Totally - when I was doing the buying for a wholesale kitchenware outfit, I quickly realised that people will spend as little as possible on what they NEED but turn out all their pockets (and tip the sofa upside down) for what they WANT
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
bit, brands, business, camera, cameras, ceo of ricoh, company, costs, customers, damage, dan, future, gr, junk, lenses, market, pentax, pentax news, pentax rumors, pentaxians, price, product, ricoh, sensors, share, sony, statement, strategy
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Interview of Shinobu Takahashi, President and CEO of Ricoh Imaging bwgv001 Photographic Industry and Professionals 38 01-05-2021 07:52 PM
GR online panel discussion "Future of GR and Cameras" on Friday Aug/21/2020. kwb Pentax News and Rumors 9 09-04-2020 02:32 PM
Lifespan of ricoh gr / gr II / gr III - how long do/did you have your ricoh? lunarwitch Ricoh GR 11 11-20-2019 12:36 PM
Ricoh camera talks on Pentax Forums biz-engineer Photographic Industry and Professionals 34 07-21-2015 09:56 AM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:38 PM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top