[Larrymc]

Whatever has truly been going on behind the scenes at Ricoh (who can really tell?), the fact that the K3III was delayed after leading up to its release for quite some time, with an official development announcement, video's, specifications published etc., indicates that there have to be uncertainties around Pentax' fate at Ricoh. After being súch an endless wait already, this felt rather as a knockout blow for the patience of Pentax shooters except perhaps for the hardened core of the remaining fan base of traditional Pentax shooters.
From that perspective, an outside take-over with partnership and investment would be the only remaining option for Pentax to endure in the declining camera market. But unlike Olympus, that at least has something of a future proof system, Pentax only has a system on offer that is being fased out at a massive pace currently.

I shoot Nikon now, the D500 dlsr, and was completely taken by surprise by the Z9 development announcement with a coming high resolution stacked BSI sensor, something I thought only Sony could do, or would at least be reserved only for Sony. This means that even for Nikon, dslr is now on the way out. Apparently a D850 update was in the works, but suspended in favor of full force for the Z system development, much alike the canon R5 superseding a 5dIV dslr replacement. Nikon was the most traditional of the camera manufacturers apart from Pentax. That would mean that Pentax is now completely on its own regarding dslr.

Things have accelerated beyond imagining in the last 2 years. The Nikon decision to apparently suspend dslr development, and possibly even discontinue it, has only been made recently according to the rumor mills. There is no other way but forward.

What will that mean for Pentax? I enjoy the Nikon D500, had a short affair with the Z7, but sold it to re-purchase the D500 because I preferred it. But that does not mean a thing, the D500 will be my last dslr regardless of what I prefer. I am struggling to see what future Pentax can still have, and what partner will invest in Pentax.

Another FUD merchant pops up.

[MMVIII]

This small but existing niche is dying out? Literally. Can Pentax survive like Leica did by catering to the nostalgia while providing high quality special gear (like Leica M's)? Because I doubt DSLR can with with MILC in a tech race.

In which regard they can't?
Looking at the latest 6000$ cameras in comparison to a K-1 or D780 regarding the image they can capture there is not only very little advantage to them, in this comparison the six year old K-1 still delivers the best result

https://www.dpreview.com/reviews/image-comparison/fullscreen?attr134_0=sony_...99549952951507

Mirrorless can capture images faster, but not necessarily better.

That's six years of development! I am really curious to see the image output of the new Pentax DSLR. I'm pretty sure it will not be behind any MILC. Sure, if you want 8k video your choice might be different.

[lemono]

But that is a problem Pentax doesn't have. They already have plenty of potential users. 30 000 000 k-mount lenses (way more if count third party lenses as well) are in the hands of potential customers of Pentax new products. The added functionality of non-A lenses in the new K3III is example of cultivation of this user base. In order to get these people to buy new lenses, Pentax needs to add functionality and value to their new lenses, something they are doing.....

---------- Post added 03-15-21 at 02:11 PM ----------




It is a wrong analysis. It is common with the analysis, widely proselytized in this very forum, that APS was dead and everyone will switch to FF. Digital enable larger design freedom than film ever did. Hence, it is about a fragmentation of the market. Not a shift from one solution to another.....

Plenty of users did not generate corresponding profits, which is the important reason for Ricoh to gradually reduce its investment in Pentax——MAYBE

In fact, in Japan, the market with more preference for APSC, the sales of APSC have collapsed very seriously.——TRUTH

There are many factors that determine the fate of APSC, including the manufacturer's product strategy and the change of market demand.

[troenaas]

In fact, in Japan, the market with more preference for APSC, the sales of APSC have collapsed very seriously.——TRUTH

I like to see stats, not undocumented claims.

[lemono]

I like to see stats, not undocumented claims.

2020?12? ??????????????????? | THE MAP TIMES

In fact, apart from Fuji, which manufacturer that have no FF camera, APSC's new products (cameras and lenses) are fewer and fewer. In particular, camera manufacturers(not include lens manufacturers like tamron) will not develop high-level lenses specifically for APSC.
Oh,the only exception,Pentax.

[repaap]

I hope they will. They will still need to convince current users to upgrade to a flagship APS-C (after trying to convince us to go for a full frame) AND convince a portion of the remaining market (which has been moving, "switching" already) to move again, this time towards Pentax. Will the K3-3 be enough of a "game changer" to really do that?



I believe also that they will deliver it. However, it's not because they poured money in it that they will. That's the sunk cost fallacy. If they decide, at any point, that they wont make money out of it, they will stop spending, whatever the development stage.

There are many who prefer aps-c over FF. as it is more handy and enough for many things. I don’t think that people needs to be convinced to get ‘back’ since many has not left at the first place. And are propably waiting for something like this to happen. Too bad about the delay thou.

[MMVIII]

Plenty of users did not generate corresponding profits, which is the important reason for Ricoh to gradually reduce its investment in Pentax——MAYBE

In fact, in Japan, the market with more preference for APSC, the sales of APSC have collapsed very seriously.——TRUTH

There are many factors that determine the fate of APSC, including the manufacturer's product strategy and the change of market demand.

This is all interesting, or not. I can't know it since I could not get to know you better as you are a (very welcome) new member.
Do you relate APSC just to Pentax, or does it include the GR, which seems to be doing just fine, or to the whole market, just thinking of Fuji offering only in this format (and MF...)?

---

Last edited by MMVIII; 03-15-2021 at 04:31 PM. Reason: Insulting to another member

[c.a.m]

I think the considerations of DSLR, mirrorless, APS-C, or full-frame have a minor relevance in the context of Ricoh Company's big picture. Regardless of the specific camera technology or models, the fundamental issue is that Ricoh Imaging and the Pentax and GR brands seem to be orphaned in Ricoh's updated core business, new structure, and outlook.

While the CEO recognizes value in the Pentax brand and its heritage, Ricoh Company is struggling to find a position and strategy for their consumer camera brands. Conversely, they have determined that "360 degrees camera" is essential for a digital services company. To me, it's not clear why Ricoh feels a "responsibility" to continue the Pentax and GR heritage and brands; perhaps this is a personal reflection of the CEO, or a concern for the 400 employees of Ricoh Imaging (Ricoh has 90,000 employees overall).

Incidentally, Ricoh's strategy and outlook as presented by the CEO has attracted market investors: Ricoh's share value has risen by +27% since 3 March 2021. The uncertainty of the consumer camera niche probably has not been a cause for concern outside of the consumer camera market.

- Craig

[Serkevan]

That's an oversimplification. You only make profit on lenses if you sell enough of them, and you' will only do that if you sell enough bodies. The reason that most SLR companies didn't have the lens line-up of Nikon and Canon is because they couldn't sell that many types of lenses to smaller number of customers. Bigger lens selection means sales divided between more lenses. Many special lenses in large lens line-ups are loss-leaders. Pentax probably had their share. Its a chicken and egg problem, and you must be willing to invest and/or sell high-end stuff with (or without) large profit margin to succeed. This is what Canon understood sometimes in the early 70's, while most other companies were busy with the next million seller for the masses. Canon did that in addition to try to cater to the pro market.

The biggest obstacle for success for all those SLR manufactures that didn't make it historically, was the lack of a big lens line-up. They couldn't afford it, and most of those lens mounts are now dead.....

But it doesn't change the fact that MILCs are selling at about twice the average price of DSLRs, which means higher margins which means cash money, which is what the manufacturers see.

Why make a million DSLRs when you double the profits on a million MILCs? And by now they've already done the vast majority of the R&D basic stuff, so there's no reason for Canikon to continue DSLR development as long as MILCs are selling decently well - which is the case for Canon, not so sure about Nikon.

[troenaas]

2020?12? ??????????????????? | THE MAP TIMES

Where is the before and after documenting the collapse?

[Serkevan]

And in how far they would be in a better position if they would have to convince every one, the own costumers and newcomers, to switch to a completely new Pentax mirrorless system?

They absolutely wouldn't. Ricoh, I think, made the right decision with keeping Pentax as DSLRs - even if that was a decision borne out of a "between a rock and a hard place" situation, the alternative was worse.

Either fight to carve out a niche where your products are very, very good already, or sink by trying to swim in a raging storm, while blindfolded and with one hand tied behind your back. Pentax woudn't be able to bring anything worthwhile to the MILC market, I think. Not out of incompetence, but they wouldn't have the means to churn out a working, enticing system.

[bdery]

And in how far they would be in a better position if they would have to convince every one, the own costumers and newcomers, to switch to a completely new Pentax mirrorless system?

Who said they should make a new mirrorless system?

There are many who prefer aps-c over FF. as it is more handy and enough for many things. I don’t think that people needs to be convinced to get ‘back’ since many has not left at the first place. And are propably waiting for something like this to happen.

I am not discussing the usefulness of APS-C.

Market shares for Pentax are shrinking and there is no profitability anymore. That's the point of the current discussion. The current situation is not sustainable. A new DSLR body probably will not be sufficient to turn things around, even if it proves popular (which I hope it will).

[troenaas]

Market shares for Pentax are shrinking and there is no profitability anymore. That's the point of the current discussion. The current situation is not sustainable. A new DSLR body probably will not be sufficient to turn things around, even if it proves popular (which I hope it will).

Pentax's DSLR market share shrunk from 3.1 % to 3 % during the past year. https://nikonrumors.com/2021/01/18/bcn-ranking-published-2020-japanese-camer...e-report.aspx/

Pentax didn't introduce any new cameras last year. Who can predict what it could have been if Pentax had introduced a new camera last year? Or what will happened to Pentax's DSLR market share in 2021 with the introduction of K3III?

[Serkevan]

I like to see stats, not undocumented claims.

The average price per unit (CIPA data) shows an increase in price-per-unit for MILC bodies going from 2019 to 2020. This is a trend that already started the previous year.

That's consistent with a shift from APS-C to entry-level FF - APS-C bodies haven't increased in price massively in a year, while we're seeing much cheaper FF bodies (but still more expensive than APS-C).

In fact, the same trend is even more pronounced for the single point of January 2021 (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-202101_e.pdf), with DSLRs falling in average value even further. The only DSLRs Canikon are selling are the entry level ones and those don't carry the business.

Here (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-2020_e.pdf) you can see the lenses in 2020:
-35mm (FF) and larger format was down by 25%
-smaller than 35mm format down by 41%. If that doesn't mean that APS-C and M43 are in a precarious position, I don't know what it means. By the way, the average manufacturer's sale price of an APS-C lens is 10K yen, which is 76€. It's the kit lenses. And those aren't making any money.

[reh321]

I am not discussing the usefulness of APS-C.

But younger users should consider this.

Unless there is a large price difference, they should consider getting “FF” lenses even if they have only “APS-C” cameras right now.
In truth, “APS-C” cameras were constructed once because “APS-C” sensors were clearly cheaper.
Now, there is little reason to manufacture them.