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03-15-2021, 08:44 AM - 1 Like   #271
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QuoteOriginally posted by c.a.m Quote
Apart from the stated parts-supply issue, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts of the business reasons why Ricoh would deliberately delay the camera's release (if it was ready to go). Would you think that it's a cost issue or some sort of higher-level management decision?

- Craig
I read about the parts supply issue for sure, and it is not unique to Ricoh or Pentax, it has affected all manufacturers that use electronics and electrical components. Nikon has had delays with lenses like the Z70-200, and faces difficulties with supplies of the Z7II/Z6II. Canon has also needed time to get the R5 on the shelves. Olymus has considerable issues regarding manufacturing capacity supplying the 150-400.

But the majority of releases have taken place nonetheless, and certainly all of the important releases. And if the K3III is not an important release to Ricoh/Pentax, than I have been fooled. They are the only company to postpone a release of core importance without further notice or info as far as I know.

Also, the parts supply was not the only given reason when I have the facts straight: they expressed something of "needing more time to ensure the K3III is working up to standard".
But whatever the situation, the wait is on again, and hoping for the best....

03-15-2021, 08:47 AM   #272
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QuoteOriginally posted by BarneyL Quote
This is true, but I'm talking about a trend, not just the current state of affairs. High Res sensors with fast readout are getting cheaper. Few years ago, if you brought an idea of 50 MPix action oriented camera, people would see it as pure fantasy, money no object. Things are changing at mind boggling pace. The more I read about these new cameras, the more I think about buying Chamonix 5x7 or something.
Haha, I'm with you. I think there is a lot of marketing and hype in that. Basically these cameras advanced mainly in speed, IQ and ISO-invariance make the K-1 already a great camera for photography. This is why they are pushing video so much, but I would also be more of a Chamonix or Alpa person.
03-15-2021, 08:52 AM   #273
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QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
The average price per unit (CIPA data) shows an increase in price-per-unit for MILC bodies going from 2019 to 2020. This is a trend that already started the previous year..
Because they sell fewer cheap ones? In addition, compare the sales volume with release of models and price of those new models. My guess is that you'll find the whole explanation there. If Nikon and Canon release a new 800-seoies model and 5-series DSLR model, respectively, I'll bet the average value of per unit of DSLR's sold will increase too.....

Last edited by Pål Jensen; 03-15-2021 at 09:06 AM.
03-15-2021, 08:57 AM   #274
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
I hope Pentax has other possibilities, but come on, Pentax users, including me should I choose to become one again, should prepare for the possibility that new product development and releases might end because of the increasing thrust behind the switch to mirrorless. Existing equipment will go on working for a long time, and the K3III at least will hit the market sooner or later, I think that is a given.
Don't forget that the K-3iii has MILC-like features, such as eye-detection when focusing.

03-15-2021, 09:02 AM - 1 Like   #275
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It seems the photography market has started to revolv around relatively well of hobbyists. It seems many in this niche own quite a lot of gear, Very often they have multiple systems running side by side.

Just on pentaxforums it seems a lot of users have other systems. A friend of mine, who's not even very rich (though not poor) has several cameras m43 and film and dslr and he's not even super interested in photography but use them for everyday sort of photography.

I mention this because these people might buy a camera just because some aspect appeal to them for some imagined photography situation. Or even just to play with it as a thing. A Sony shooter migh well get a Pentax and a few lenses because they are curious. Pentax is in a good place to exploit this. A sony FF user might be less likely to also get a panasonic FF or even a canon than a Pentax which offers something completely different.
03-15-2021, 09:05 AM   #276
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Because they sell fewer cheap ones? In addition, compare the sales volume with release of models and price of those new models. My guess is that you'll find the whole explanation there. If Nikon and Canon release a new 800-seoies model and 5-series model repsectively, I'll bet the average value of per unit of DSLR's sold will increase too.....
Sure, it will increase, but it won't double. The point is that the DSLR models that are selling are D3500/2000Ds, while the MILC models that are selling are entry level FF or more premium APS-C offerings, at prices that increase steadily every year - despite new similar models not being much more expensive than earlier iterations. That speaks to a market shift.

I don't think we'll see a 5D5, for what it's worth. Maybe as a swan song.
03-15-2021, 09:18 AM   #277
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QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
The average price per unit (CIPA data) shows an increase in price-per-unit for MILC bodies going from 2019 to 2020. This is a trend that already started the previous year.

That's consistent with a shift from APS-C to entry-level FF - APS-C bodies haven't increased in price massively in a year, while we're seeing much cheaper FF bodies (but still more expensive than APS-C).

In fact, the same trend is even more pronounced for the single point of January 2021 (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-202101_e.pdf), with DSLRs falling in average value even further. The only DSLRs Canikon are selling are the entry level ones and those don't carry the business.

Here (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-2020_e.pdf) you can see the lenses in 2020:
-35mm (FF) and larger format was down by 25%
-smaller than 35mm format down by 41%. If that doesn't mean that APS-C and M43 are in a precarious position, I don't know what it means. By the way, the average manufacturer's sale price of an APS-C lens is 10K yen, which is 76€. It's the kit lenses. And those aren't making any money.
For the life of me I can't imagine a single, possible reason for such a slow down in sales.

03-15-2021, 09:36 AM - 1 Like   #278
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
But that's exactly what you're doing, since Ricoh Imaging provided a different, official reason.


You mean we should stop buying Pentax products now, including the K-3iii when it will be released, and switch to mirrorless like you'll be doing?
That's how FUD works.

I would advise you to stick with your current gear Alex. I sold the K3 and the DA560 and have regretted it ever since. Only once you are sure your new gear is what fullfills your needs, should you sell your old gear, that is what I learned.

With regards to the future and future gear, only you know what is best, depending on your needs and budget. You can plan ahead and try to see where things are going, or you can just take things as they come, and possibly be caught off guard.
03-15-2021, 09:47 AM   #279
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
For the life of me I can't imagine a single, possible reason for such a slow down in sales.
APS-C bodies haven't been, so far, identified as a risk demographic for Covid . At least, not more than their FF counterparts...

The data for 2019 doesn't look much better (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-2019_e.pdf)
-15% drop YoY for FF+, but only a 5% drop in total revenue (i.e. higher price per lens)
-29% drop YoY for APS-C and lower.
03-15-2021, 10:03 AM - 1 Like   #280
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
I would advise you to stick with your current gear Alex. I sold the K3 and the DA560 and have regretted it ever since. Only once you are sure your new gear is what fullfills your needs, should you sell your old gear, that is what I learned.

With regards to the future and future gear, only you know what is best, depending on your needs and budget. You can plan ahead and try to see where things are going, or you can just take things as they come, and possibly be caught off guard.
I might not want to "stick with my current gear" if new gear is giving me the performance I want. Sorry, I might not be done with buying Pentax gear!
Wait, I'm not sorry at all - and I don't appreciate people nudging Pentaxians into "safer" choices.
03-15-2021, 10:18 AM - 8 Likes   #281
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
Also, the parts supply was not the only given reason when I have the facts straight: they expressed something of "needing more time to ensure the K3III is working up to standard".
But whatever the situation, the wait is on again, and hoping for the best....
A very reasonable way to read that statement is "We found a factory that said they could produce parts so we could release on time. However, we have zero experience with this factory and are concerned that the parts they would provide would not meet our quality standards. [We can't afford a massive recall from a financial or PR perspective.] Thus, we will wait until we can get parts that meet our quality standards."

---------- Post added 03-15-21 at 12:20 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by troenaas Quote
The larger your sample size, the greater the likelihood that the sample accurately reflects the entire group as a whole (assuming the sample is scientifically designed and random). A group of 100 customers will more accurately reflect your entire customer base of 1,000 customers than a group of 10 customers would. The larger your sample, the more accurate your results are inclined to be.

40% is a substantial sample.
Mathematician here: Yes, 40% is a substantial sample. However, if it's not random (and it sounds like it's not from what was quoted earlier), then it's meaningless. If I sampled only voters in California, I would have expected Biden to win by 25 million votes in the popular vote. If I sampled only voters in North Dakota, Wyoming, and West Virginia, I would have expected a Trump win by 50 million votes.

---------- Post added 03-15-21 at 12:24 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by BarneyL Quote
This is true, but I'm talking about a trend, not just the current state of affairs. High Res full frame sensors with fast readout are getting cheaper. Few years ago, if you brought an idea of 50 MPix action oriented camera, people would see it as pure fantasy, money no object. Things are changing at mind boggling pace. The more I read about these new cameras, the more I think about buying Chamonix 5x7 or something.
Pro sports shooters aren't going to switch to a 50MP or 60MP camera. I hear plenty of them talking about picking their 20MP bodies to shoot sports/action because the images are plenty big for the uses their profession requires and they can process them much more efficiently after the event. Pro wildlife photographers will probably go for the super high resolutions, since they're more likely to see requests for large prints and the ridiculous frame rate increases their chances of getting a perfect gesture from a rare subject.
03-15-2021, 10:25 AM   #282
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Wait, I'm not sorry at all - and I don't appreciate people nudging Pentaxians into "safer" choices.
User opinions online are mostly subjective and in some cases (compare cameras side by side), totally wrong. I once did the "safer" choice recommended by an online user, and I had to bite my fingers, the so good product wasn't as good as I thought it was, quite the contrary. With cameras purchases come the "endowment effect" , that is someone who recently bought a Brand A camera are going to tell you that it is so much better than camera Brand B they don't own. Such thing is a really problem with influencer: the claim is not the reality.
03-15-2021, 10:51 AM   #283
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I might not want to "stick with my current gear" if new gear is giving me the performance I want. Sorry, I might not be done with buying Pentax gear!
Wait, I'm not sorry at all - and I don't appreciate people nudging Pentaxians into "safer" choices.
The situation with Pentax and Pentax shooters is not unique Alex. Canon shooters have lost their 7DII upgrade path (I know from personal experience, the 90D was nothing but an obligational job that raised mainly disappointment), Nikon shooters are losing their D500 replacement path.
On the respective forums, this is openly discussed, even though people's interests are at stake. People come to these forums for information and open discussion.
The sky is not falling when dslr cameras arrive at a dead end, Nikon D500 and Canon 7DII users move on, they accept the camera industry is changing.

Ricoh is also part of that camera world, they cannot be an island but have to relate to what is happening, e.g. at Nikon.

The only "FUD" I am involved in, is "FUD"GE CAKE, the chocolate variety.
03-15-2021, 11:01 AM   #284
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
I would advise you to stick with your current gear Alex. I sold the K3 and the DA560 and have regretted it ever since. Only once you are sure your new gear is what fullfills your needs, should you sell your old gear, that is what I learned.

With regards to the future and future gear, only you know what is best, depending on your needs and budget. You can plan ahead and try to see where things are going, or you can just take things as they come, and possibly be caught off guard.
I always keep my old equipment as backup - admittedly I haven't needed to sell anything to finance my newest camera.

I still have my film Pentax "Super Program" {purchased in 1983} and Canon EOS Elan {purchased in 1995} even though I lost main lens for the latter when I used it with the Canon Rebel which followed it.
03-15-2021, 11:05 AM - 2 Likes   #285
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
The only "FUD" I am involved in, is "FUD"GE CAKE, the chocolate variety.
Not so.
Negative speculation not supported by actual facts tend to sew "FUD" - and you have posted plenty of negative speculation here.
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