[Wheatfield]

So you're saying that the full frame medium format 645 Z would be a wildly expensive body/system aimed at a microscopic niche user community that doesn't care at all that they can get nearly the same image quality out of a much smaller, lighter, cheaper Fuji MF system. It'll be the camera equivalent of one of those 40 foot tall dump trucks that they hand-assemble and sell a few hundred of for $10M each. Right? I mean, I suppose that's plausible.

I'd prefer that Ricoh doesn't invest a lot of corporate resources into a system that's probably going to sell a few thousand very expensive copies. But it's not up to me.

A few thousand? At this point they would be lucky to sell a few dozen. And only that if they were willing to eat the cost of development and price the camera competitively.
Fuji has eaten their lunch regarding medium format.

[thibs]

Pentax is trying to pimp a digital update of a nearly 4 decades old camera against a brand new design from a much better known company.
I don't think this will end well for Pentax.

Or not. Which is why they still did not do a thing. They know they're stuck somewhat :

1/ Milc and go head to head with Fuji (ouch)
2/ Simply update the Z
3/ Go 645 FF but if I remember well, the sensors are both expensive and hard to chose from ('cos well, no choice)
4/ Do nothing and end the line.

[Rondec]

I wouldn't be surprised if the next two cameras to come out (in some order) are a 645z II and K-1 III. It makes sense.

This certainly does not mean that Pentax is ditching APS-C. It is just that they don't have resources to devote to multiple different camera lines at the same time. Having released a K-3 III, that won't need a new camera for 3-ish years.

[Andrea K]

But, above all, what a crawler scripts is?

[ThorSanchez]

A few thousand? At this point they would be lucky to sell a few dozen. And only that if they were willing to eat the cost of development and price the camera competitively.
Fuji has eaten their lunch regarding medium format.

I was just taking a wild guess at what the market would be for people who think they need hyper-resolution medium format and don't care if the camera weighs eight pounds or that they have to wait until 2033 to have the lens lineup fleshed out. We have biz-engineer as the representative of that niche here, so extrapolating across the world that might be a few hundred interested consumers.

[Andrea K]

... the next one is 645.

Please, elaborate more on this.

[Wheatfield]

I wouldn't be surprised if the next two cameras to come out (in some order) are a 645z II and K-1 III. It makes sense.

This certainly does not mean that Pentax is ditching APS-C. It is just that they don't have resources to devote to multiple different camera lines at the same time. Having released a K-3 III, that won't need a new camera for 3-ish years.

I doubt if there will be an update to the K3 line for 5-7 years. Pentax tends to wait until an update is fairly major, and now that the technology is maturing, it's going to be a while for a major update.

[Pål Jensen]

Is it inconceivable that an FF 645 can be sold in 2022/23 at the same price as a 645D 10 years ago?

[Serkevan]

Is it inconceivable that an FF 645 can be sold in 2022/23 at the same price as a 645D 10 years ago?

Yes.
I wouldn't expect a FF 645 under 20k, and that's being quite optimistic.

[Wheatfield]

I wouldn't be surprised if the next two cameras to come out (in some order) are a 645z II and K-1 III. It makes sense.

This certainly does not mean that Pentax is ditching APS-C. It is just that they don't have resources to devote to multiple different camera lines at the same time. Having released a K-3 III, that won't need a new camera for 3-ish years.

I doubt if there will be an update to the K3 line for 5-7 years. Pentax tends to wait until an update is fairly major, and now that the technology is maturing, it's going to be a while for a major update.

[normhead]

I doubt if there will be an update to the K3 line for 5-7 years. Pentax tends to wait until an update is fairly major, and now that the technology is maturing, it's going to be a while for a major update.

After a major update, Pentax tends to release a "version II" update after 18 months to 2 years.

[biz-engineer]

After a major update, Pentax tends to release a "version II" update after 18 months to 2 years.

Sometimes the mark II is a mark I with a motherboard upgrade for $500. Could happen to 645z II with an accelerator chip and IBIS, available in black and silver.

---------- Post added 15-09-21 at 19:38 ----------

Pentax has pretty much always been a hobby brand. They never broke into the pro market in a big way other than with the 6x7 and fashion photographers.

It's never too late.

[Wheatfield]

Is it inconceivable that an FF 645 can be sold in 2022/23 at the same price as a 645D 10 years ago?

I would think so.

A full frame 645 is a 35% larger sensor than the present one, which is going to add to the cost. A new camera will have to be in the 100mp range to be taken seriously as that is what the Fuji is, though it is the same sensor size as the present 645.
As an aside, the present sensor is twice the area, more or less, as the 35mm full frame sensor.
And, 10 years ago, the market was still booming, and development costs could be spread around more. The market is now in freefall, and development costs have to be shared into a much smaller pool of sales dollars.
As an example, I don't recall exactly what I paid for my K3, but my feeling is that the K3III is about 50% more.

People who want to buy new cameras need to be prepared for a bit of sticker shock if they've been out of the market for a while, and people who got into Pentax because they were the cheap guys in the business are going to have a very difficult time going forward.
The good ship Cheap 'n Cheerful has sailed, and it isn't coming back to the dock any time soon.

[Rondec]

I doubt if there will be an update to the K3 line for 5-7 years. Pentax tends to wait until an update is fairly major, and now that the technology is maturing, it's going to be a while for a major update.

I think chances are good that any update in three years would be a minor upgrade -- like the K-3 to K-3 II or the K5 to K5 II. A new image stabilization module, new accelerator -- whatever things can be done relatively easily but still let Pentaxians know that the line isn't dead.

A full upgrade would certainly be 5 to 6 years down the road (depending on how things go in the meantime).

[Wheatfield]

It's never too late.

I keep telling myself that when I go to bars to hook up with 20 year old girls.
So far it isn't working very well. It seemed so much easier 40 years ago.

Pentax had the chance to be a pro marketed camera at one time, but they lost it, I suspect sometime in the mid 1970s.
Look where they are now. The K1 is one of the best equipped landscape cameras on the market, but takes it on the chin for using an "old" sensor.
The full frame Star lenses are just about the best there is, but barely get any notice in the marketplace, and when they do, it is as much negative as positive.
I had a guy on DPReview arguing with me that the DFA* 50/1.4 was a Tokina design because he didn't believe and couldn't be convinced that Pentax was capable of designing a great lens.
How much of a splash did the K3III make outside of this forum?

Pentax has become the Astra Zeneca of cameras. Great products, but victim of a tremendous disinformation campaign.

---------- Post added Sep 15th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ----------

I think chances are good that any update in three years would be a minor upgrade -- like the K-3 to K-3 II or the K5 to K5 II. A new image stabilization module, new accelerator -- whatever things can be done relatively easily but still let Pentaxians know that the line isn't dead.

A full upgrade would certainly be 5 to 6 years down the road (depending on how things go in the meantime).

Sure, I could see a K3IIIa in a few years with some very minor improvements, sort of a swimming in molasses version of what Canon did with the Rebel every year, but a K3IV will, I expect, be a fairly long time coming.
Before that happens, they need to do a real upgrade on the K1, apparently the 645 isn't dead yet, but it needs a huge shot in the arm to come close to the competition and to give adequate separation from 35mm (I expect a new full frame will have at least the same number of pixels as the present 645), and they will probably need to release a mid range APS-C camera to throw a bone to the users who are not in the K3III class.

Also, before a K3IV happens, there will need to be some real room for improvement on the K3III, which appears to be a class leader at present.
I suspect there won't be a new K3 until the pixel count can be moved into the 35-40MP range, and that won't happen until the K1 can be brought into the 60MP range