[Mistral75]

I think the better way is looking which camera came to the market and needed new negotiations for sourcing a sensor on the 2021/2022 sensor market. The Om-system uses one they already use.
It's, I assume, the 2 Canons and the 2 Fuji's. I also assume that they either produce the sensors alone or have long lasting working contracts with manufacturers pre 2021.
The Nikon uses a sensor for which they probably have contracts and same for Om-systems. Edit: oh, obviously this is also true for the KF.

I'm sure Sony could have provided Ricoh with sensors. But obviously nobody thought it was a good idea to make a (long term) supply contract in the market situation of 2022. Seems to be prices are over the top.

Cameras with brand new sensor (not used in any other camera before) launched in 2022:

• Canon EOS R6 Mark II (24MP 24x36 sensor)
• Fujifilm X-H2 / X-T5 (same 40MP APS-C sensor)
• Sony FX30 (26MP APS-C sensor, not the one used by Fujifilm and Pentax)
• Fujifilm X-H2S (26MP stacked APS-C sensor)
• OM System OM-1 (20MP stacked 4:3 sensor)
• Panasonic Lumix DC-GH6 (25MP 4:3 sensor)

[Wasp]

It's interesting that you don't count the KF as a camera.

He did say new cameras. That rules out the KF.

[MMVIII]

Cameras with brand new sensor (not used in any other camera before) launched in 2022:

• Canon EOS R6 Mark II (24MP 24x36 sensor)
• Fujifilm X-H2 / X-T5 (same 40MP APS-C sensor)
• Sony FX30 (26MP APS-C sensor, not the one used by Fujifilm and Pentax)
• Fujifilm X-H2S (26MP stacked APS-C sensor)
• OM System OM-1 (20MP stacked 4:3 sensor)
• Panasonic Lumix DC-GH6 (25MP 4:3 sensor)

Perfect, the camerapedia strikes, thank you.
Still, I don't see a contradiction to what I said. Either the sensors are special developments with probably long term contracts way before 2022 or even produced by the companies themselves. I don't see any reason why a story about Ricoh withholding from sourcing a sensor in a peak market would not be realistic. Pentax/Ricoh always sourced well established sensors that were available in necessary quantity and, I assume, at reasonable prices.

[biz-engineer]

I don't see any reason why a story about Ricoh withholding from sourcing a sensor in a peak market would not be realistic. Pentax/Ricoh always sourced well established sensors that were available in necessary quantity and, I assume, at reasonable prices.

Whatever it is, all other camera brands are able to release new cameras and even Ricoh because they released the Pentax K3 III right in the middle of component shortages. Anyway, all this component shortage thing is pure supposition because the authors of such suppositions don't know the real reason. People who know work for Ricoh Pentax group, they know exactly why (marketing, planning, whatever..).

[Mistral75]

Perfect, the camerapedia strikes, thank you.

Thank YOU for your kind words.

(...) I don't see any reason why a story about Ricoh withholding from sourcing a sensor in a peak market would not be realistic. Pentax/Ricoh always sourced well established sensors that were available in necessary quantity and, I assume, at reasonable prices.

If Ricoh Imaging had planned to launch a new camera in 2022, be it equipped with a brand new sensor or a "well established one", they would have sourced it years before and the peak market we are talking about wouldn't have had any impact on said launch. That was the case for the KF, for instance.

Ergo "the delay of a new K1-iii" (to quote the OP) being "probably due to supply chain shortages of full frame sensors from Sony" hasn't much to do with peak market and supply chain shortage and much more with very low R&D expenses (in absolute terms, not in proportion to sales) and the camera not being ready to market yet.

On the other hand, should Ricoh Imaging have planned to launch the K-1 Mark III in late 2023 or 2024, the 2021-2022 sensor market conditions (when the procurement of the camera's sensor would have to be negotiated to ensure a timely launch) might lead to a launch postponement.

In short: the 2021-2022 sensor market conditions (mainly prices) will have an impact on the H2 2023 and 2024 launches, not on the 2022 and H1 2023 launches.

[biz-engineer]

That's not many at all Biz, so it's hardly a brisk roll-out full of innovative new cameras coming to the market.Contrast that to just five years ago with 27 new camera models across 7 different manufacturers. Ten years ago? 42.

Sensor supply has been impacting the camera market since 2012, it's been harder and harder to get CMOS sensors for cameras, forcing all camera brands to downsize, and that's why the market is smaller now. DSLR were even morphed into mirrorless design to avoid delays related to the shortage of mirrors. Smartphones sucked all the wafers, there was nothing left for cameras. But, there is a trick: if you are a camera company just pretend you order the sensor for a smartphone design, but secretly make a DSLR instead ! You could even ask Apple or Samsung to order the Sony sensors for you, and give Apple or Samsung a trade commission.

---------- Post added 18-01-23 at 13:43 ----------

In short: the 2021-2022 sensor market conditions (mainly prices) will have an impact on the H2 2023 and 2024 launches, not on the 2022 and H1 2023 launches.

You're referring to production of 10 000 sensor units (although lead times have fallen from 52 weeks to 25 weeks during second half of 2022). https://www.electronicdesign.com/resources/industry-insights/article/2125568...ortage-not-yet
But for the development of camera prototypes or sensor performance evaluation, usually you can have a limited quantity engineering samples within a few weeks. New product development time is not constrained by supply chain , market supply/demand conditions. So Ricoh should be a able to show us a working prototype of Pentax K1 III, regardless of the sensor model chosen, we could also have it for pre-ordering.

[bdery]

Automotive customers have complained that they can't get microchips and they even say that it's going to be difficult for them to source microchips in 2023, but that's because they don't want to pay the money, especially for the level of quality they are asking.
Of course, when the market demand is close to full capacity of the supply, you can't get microchips at low-ball prices as when supply exceed demand.

That's another way to say that when demand exceeds supply, especially when supply is at an all-time low, prices and lead times increase.

[MMVIII]

That's another way to say that when demand exceeds supply, especially when supply is at an all-time low, prices and lead times increase.

It's a way to say, sure, if they wanted and needed they could get sensors, but due to the market conditions at (very) high prices. Another case where most basically agree on a topic, but insist on some formulations. Yes, we don't know anything, it's all about rumours. I agree that market conditions might impact cameras scheduled for 23/24 and did basically not those introduced last year. I don't think Ricoh planned a K-1III for a '22 release and had to postpone it. But who knows.

[photoptimist]

It might not be a shortage sensors that's causing the problem.

It could be a shortages of Socionext processors (Socionext also supplies other hot markets such as automotive, 5G, and smart devices) or Pentax's custom accelerator ASIC or MEMS (the chips that measure acceleration and rotation for SR) or any of the other digital tidbits needed to run the camera. If just one chip is in short supply or delayed, the camera can't be manufactured and delivered.

[JPT]

I feel I may have started this discussion and for that I’m sorry. All I ever said was that in August of 2022 I was told Pentax didn’t feel the time was right for a new K-1 series camera because component prices would make it more expensive than customers would want to pay. Therefore the existing K-1 II, which was selling well at that moment in time at least, makes more sense. The m the factual part.

While I was not specifically told that sensors were the problem, the fact that both Pentax and other brands have released a number of new crop sensor cameras in the past two years leads me to believe that the component in concern is full frame specific. The most likely candidate is the sensor, but I guess the shutter is another possibility. The Socionext processor or accelerator doesn’t seem to be likely because it is equally required for crop sensor cameras.

What matters for Pentax is the price of the sensor at the time they place the order. In the case of the KF, it seems reasonable to believe it is the same order they placed many years ago when they started making the K-70. The K-3 III sensor was probably expensive at the time they ordered, which is why the K-3 III is an expensive camera.

So what I expect is that Pentax will release a new full frame camera either when sensor prices come down or when they completely run out of the 36mp sensors and they have no choice but to go with an expensive sensor. The resulting camera would be expensive.

You could argue that they should have placed their order years ago to avoid this situation. But honestly how could they have predicted this situation.

I don’t think Pentax lacks design resources. I believe Pentax designs cameras only after they have the sensor secured to make sure the design is current. I also don’t think Pentax has any incentive to start teasing this camera while the K-1 II is still on sale.

Which leaves us where we started. We have no idea when the next K-1 will be released. It could be tomorrow. It could be years away. I think it will be in 2023, but then again I am one of those insufferable optimists who seeks to destroy the picturesque misery of others. So file my opinions where you see fit.

[biz-engineer]

So what I expect is that Pentax will release a new full frame camera either when sensor prices come down or when they completely run out of the 36mp sensors and they have no choice but to go with an expensive sensor. The resulting camera would be expensive ... I don’t think Pentax lacks design resources.

The K1 II is a good camera. K3 III is available for sport/wildlife shooters. There is no urgent need (in my opinion) of a new full frame camera. But, absence of news makes people wonder. So if Ricoh is waiting for when the sensors will be available at a good price to develop the new full frame camera, what are the engineers doing in the meantime, are they waiting? Unless camera engineers are contractors, whether they wait or work, they are still being paid, which could cost more than paying premium $ for the sensor. Also there is what's known as the opportunity cost, i.e the money lost by not going ahead with projects (such as customer jumping ship). Maybe go ahead with limited batch of cameras, order more sensors later when the price/availability is better. If I would manage a camera company I would do this: make 5000 limited series of cameras with the more expensive sensor in them, priced $4000, stop Pentaxians from jumping ship in 2023 and 2024, preserve market share, then later buy more of the same sensors cheaper, decrease the price of the camera to $3500, then price drop again later $3000. Better strategy than just having engineers wait two years in the lab for a sensor. Also, I know as an engineer, waiting for a sensor in the lab for a couple of years is not fun at all, it's very boring.

[reh321]

The K1 II is a good camera. K3 III is available for sport/wildlife shooters. There is no urgent need (in my opinion) of a new full frame camera. But, absence of news makes people wonder. So if Ricoh is waiting for when the sensors will be available at a good price to develop the new full frame camera, what are the engineers doing in the meantime, are they waiting? Unless camera engineers are contractors, whether they wait or work, they are still being paid, which could cost more than paying premium $ for the sensor. Also there is what's known as the opportunity cost, i.e the money lost by not going ahead with projects (such as customer jumping ship). Maybe go ahead with limited batch of cameras, order more sensors later when the price/availability is better. If I would manage a camera company I would do this: make 5000 limited series of cameras with the more expensive sensor in them, priced $4000, stop Pentaxians from jumping ship in 2023 and 2024, preserve market share, then later buy more of the same sensors cheaper, decrease the price of the camera to $3500, then price drop again later $3000. Better strategy than just having engineers wait two years in the lab for a sensor. Also, I know as an engineer, waiting for a sensor in the lab for a couple of years is not fun at all, it's very boring.

Pentaxians always seem to be wanting the next camera, always wanting to send more money to Pentax. The KP doesn’t focus as fast as I would prefer, but I’m not willing to spend what a K-3iii would cost, so I’m working on my technique. I believe people should use what they have, instead of thinking in terms of a new camera all the time. Exactly why is a K-1iii needed?

added: I just received a text from KEH selling wide-angle and telephoto lenses, but I haven’t noticed an inability to photograph what I want, so I’ll just trash the text message.

[UncleVanya]

Pentaxians always seem to be wanting the next camera, always wanting to send more money to Pentax. The KP doesn’t focus as fast as I would prefer, but I’m not willing to spend what a K-3iii would cost, so I’m working on my technique. I believe people should use what they have, instead of thinking in terms of a new camera all the time. Exactly why is a K-1iii needed?

An interesting question. In manual focus film era the lifespan of a body was pretty stable within a persons collection. The features drove interest but output was broadly determined mostly by the lenses. GAS was about more lenses and tripods largely.

Today the resolution of a system is dependent on both a body and a lens in combination. That perhaps drives this.

[TwoUptons]

For all we know, the real reason is a shortage of those little metal legs that hold on the K1's flippy screen...

Whatever the supply issue, having cost as an element of that makes plenty of sense.

If Pentax released a K1iii at the end of 2022 for $5,000 would many people buy it? How many people would say, "that's crazy" and take their lenses to Nikon or wherever... if they then dropped the price to $3,000, all the people who paid $5,000 would be angry... unless they waited a year or so to drop the price...

If they waited until June, 2023 and released the same camera for $3,000, it's a very different equation... the trade is how many people would leave in the meantime... and I'm sure Ricoh has done that math...

-Eric

[leekil]

If Sony can't keep up with demand, they are going to sell their sensors to their camera division before they feed them to their competition.

That might get them into some anti-competitive legal trouble