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01-21-2023, 06:48 AM   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Keiretsu was 80 years ago. Things have changed in Japan, perhaps not to the point of Western corporate culture, but I don't see camera companies helping each other very much.
Keiretsu is still alive in new forms.

01-21-2023, 07:49 AM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
All that said, it's very unlikely that Sony hold sensors to prevent Pentax developments. Pentaxes APSC and FF are DSLR, small market share, de-facto non-competing partner. The biggest competitors for Pentax cameras are the other dominant b2b divisions of Ricoh that set the reference for financial goals, and are competing to get investment budgets for new product developments. The CFO compares business lines to each other, although they are completely different businesses, they are evaluated with the same criteria, regardless in which market they operate.
I asked two days ago whether we know for certain that the K-1 family is profitable. As we say in the US, the answer so far “is crickets”, and your answer frankly is that Ricoh has other priorities. The company has long since passed the point where they could have released a camera with the features of the K-3iii; perhaps they have thought of other features, but simply cannot get them to work in production, but you have said what I am thinking. I don’t know how many Japanese use the K-1ii; I know Adam has given away a few of them, but he and the mods don’t make a large enough market to make it profitable. Personally, I doubt if a shortage of sensors has slowed down production. This thread has been interesting, but there is nothing to explain the slowness we have seen.
01-21-2023, 08:08 AM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
I asked two days ago whether we know for certain that the K-1 family is profitable. As we say in the US, the answer so far “is crickets”, and your answer frankly is that Ricoh has other priorities. The company has long since passed the point where they could have released a camera with the features of the K-3iii; perhaps they have thought of other features, but simply cannot get them to work in production, but you have said what I am thinking. I don’t know how many Japanese use the K-1ii; I know Adam has given away a few of them, but he and the mods don’t make a large enough market to make it profitable. Personally, I doubt if a shortage of sensors has slowed down production. This thread has been interesting, but there is nothing to explain the slowness we have seen.
I don't think there is any question that the K-1 II is "profitable." It's like asking if the 645z is profitable. The R and D was paid back long ago -- beyond which, the R and D was spread over a couple of different cameras (KP and K-70 also got the accelerator, similar AF engine to the K-3 II). Once the R and D is paid for, as long as you generate a profit on each sale and Pentax surely does, then you make a profit -- even if you aren't selling huge numbers of cameras.

The same is true for the FA limiteds -- they are old lenses and so even if they don't sell huge numbers, Pentax still makes money on each one.

The bigger question is how well Pentax could sell a K-1 III that cost 3500 dollars. Sandy Hancock and I would buy one each, so that's two sold, but I'm not sure who else would line up to get one.
01-21-2023, 08:17 AM - 1 Like   #64
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I would!

01-21-2023, 08:37 AM   #65
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
The bigger question is how well Pentax could sell a K-1 III that cost 3500 dollars. Sandy Hancock and I would buy one each, so that's two sold, but I'm not sure who else would line up to get one.
QuoteOriginally posted by Mikesul Quote
I would!
I minored in Finance when l earned my MBA. We learned to measure new products by how many months of expected sales would be required to pay off R&D. Would anyone here be willing to guess what the measurement for the K-1iii would be? If 5% of the effort is going to the film project, what is the remainder of the effort going to? We would have to answer questions like that to evaluate the standing of the K-1iii. I do believe the K-1iii should have been released by now, but why not? Honestly, I really doubt if a shortage of sensors is holding back the K-iii.

Last edited by reh321; 01-21-2023 at 12:06 PM. Reason: Left out modifier “many” from “months”?
01-21-2023, 09:22 AM - 1 Like   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
I minored in Finance when l earned my MBA. We learned to measure new products by how months of expected sales would be required to pay off R&D. Would anyone here be willing to guess what the measurement for the K-1iii would be? If 5% of the effort is going to the film project, what is the remainder of the effort going to? We would have to answer questions like that to evaluate the standing of the K-1iii. I do believe the K-1iii should have been released by now, but why not? Honestly, I really doubt if a shortage of sensors is holding back the K-iii.
I don't think this was the question nor the intention of this thread. Until now, as far as I followed and with focus on this subforum, there was no consensus or even expectation that a K-1III should be already out. General agreement, if you allow me to sum it up (and correct me if I'm totally wrong) was more, that there is a basic expectation that a follow up to the only FF model is coming. Assumptions about some implementations of technology developed for K-3III - e.g. AF, metering and image processing - are up to debate but likely. An upscaling of the viewfinder technology was discussed, but considered as less likely, and probably less necessary.
Expectations were to see it sometime in 2023 or 2024, if the latter than at least an announcement in 2023.
It was just some comments lately which said, that there were rumours a prototype might have been ready already by the end of last year but did not get published because of the market situation with some components.
It is just new, that a discussion seemed to be fired with some speculating about things way out of our knowledge. I think, if the former consensus is accepted again, it would not harm anyone and this forum could be spared of some doom and gloom. But I might be wrong, and it's time to start this cycle now, who knows?
01-21-2023, 09:32 AM - 2 Likes   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by MMVIII Quote
I don't think this was the question nor the intention of this thread. Until now, as far as I followed and with focus on this subforum, there was no consensus or even expectation that a K-1III should be already out. General agreement, if you allow me to sum it up (and correct me if I'm totally wrong) was more, that there is a basic expectation that a follow up to the only FF model is coming. Assumptions about some implementations of technology developed for K-3III - e.g. AF, metering and image processing - are up to debate but likely. An upscaling of the viewfinder technology was discussed, but considered as less likely, and probably less necessary.
Expectations were to see it sometime in 2023 or 2024, if the latter than at least an announcement in 2023.
It was just some comments lately which said, that there were rumours a prototype might have been ready already by the end of last year but did not get published because of the market situation with some components.
It is just new, that a discussion seemed to be fired with some speculating about things way out of our knowledge. I think, if the former consensus is accepted again, it would not harm anyone and this forum could be spared of some doom and gloom. But I might be wrong, and it's time to start this cycle now, who knows?
I agree this speculation is way way out of our knowledge. The KF cameras seem to have been manufactured lately, so I really doubt if a shortage of parts of any type is what is ‘holding the K-1iii back’; I put in quotes, because we have no way of knowing whether or not anything should have happened by now. All this is just guessing, based on what someone was expecting.

I was hoping that the KF camera was truly a new camera. It isn’t, so I’ll continue to use my KP while still hoping for a K-90 ‘some {unspecified future} day’; talk about the film camera project has motivated me to purchase some film to use when the sun returns {and the ‘perma clouds’ end} here. I would encourage K-1 users to do likewise; I don’t believe we will ever understand Ricoh timing, so we should we use what we have, hoping that some day they will advance, but speculation is a waste of energy.

I still check this section each morning in the hope that Pentax has made a relevant announcement while I slept.


Last edited by reh321; 01-21-2023 at 12:40 PM. Reason: Added words mostly centered on “what someone was expecting”
01-22-2023, 02:12 AM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
I agree this speculation is way way out of our knowledge. The KF cameras seem to have been manufactured lately, so I really doubt if a shortage of parts of any type is what is ‘holding the K-1iii back’; I put in quotes, because we have no way of knowing whether or not anything should have happened by now. All this is just guessing, based on what someone was expecting.

I was hoping that the KF camera was truly a new camera. It isn’t, so I’ll continue to use my KP while still hoping for a K-90 ‘some {unspecified future} day’; talk about the film camera project has motivated me to purchase some film to use when the sun returns {and the ‘perma clouds’ end} here. I would encourage K-1 users to do likewise; I don’t believe we will ever understand Ricoh timing, so we should we use what we have, hoping that some day they will advance, but speculation is a waste of energy.

I still check this section each morning in the hope that Pentax has made a relevant announcement while I slept.
This makes no sense. The KF is mostly a K70. Why would the parts necessary for a KF (K70) be the same as for a K1-III. This makes no sense (IMO of course).
01-22-2023, 04:36 AM   #69
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
This thread has been interesting, but there is nothing to explain the slowness we have seen.
We (customers) don't have access to the details, except some anecdotes, with the Japanese culture emphasis on avoiding to hurt feelings. Japanese is high context communication culture, hence the Japanese market better understand Pentax messages by "reading the air", while westerners translate what's been said word for word. ( https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200129-what-is-reading-the-air-in-japan ). But we know general business ideas and apply to every business: the notion of critical size, importance of market share, focus or diversification. Ricoh have lower market share , plus they are less focused than other brands, and probably even agree with their choice. The wrong perception is perhaps by Pentaxians who wrongly expect Ricoh Imaging to compete like other brands, whereas Ricoh are trying to do just the opposite (not to compete features: with Theta, GR, Astrotracer, film camera). Ricoh marketing won't tell you directly "if you are looking for the latest top notch digital full frame camera, you won't get it from us, because that's not our pursuit".

---------- Post added 22-01-23 at 12:55 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I don't think there is any question that the K-1 II is "profitable." It's like asking if the 645z is profitable. The R and D was paid back long ago -
I think Ricoh Imaging have chosen to be making acceptable profits at the expense of market share no matter how small market share becomes, they just let go on market share, having their resources sized so that cash outflows (R&D) matches cash inflows. But I guess it's been like that for a couple of decades. What we see today is just to continuation of the same approach, albeit much slower due to the now much smaller market. Perhaps the last time Pentax was competing head to head with others was when I bought my first Pentax about 20 years ago, when they retailed alongside others with aggressive price/features offers. The change of strategy from offensive to defensive was when Pentax started to pull out from brick & mortar stores.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 01-22-2023 at 04:57 AM.
01-22-2023, 05:09 AM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
This makes no sense. The KF is mostly a K70. Why would the parts necessary for a KF (K70) be the same as for a K1-III. This makes no sense (IMO of course).
It makes sense in that most parts are “modern” parts.
We know the difference between the K-70 and the KF are the parts they were having problems finding; we don’t know of any other problems finding parts. Any other problems are probably in the minds of Westerners determined to find {Western} explanation. Western tongues joked about the Pentax announcement to consider film cameras again, but it makes sense to their {artistic} minds.

Last edited by reh321; 01-22-2023 at 06:25 AM.
01-22-2023, 05:10 AM - 1 Like   #71
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I would too.
I don't think the K-1 wasn't profitable, there's no reason to think they'd continue the project if it wasn't.
BTW, absence of evidence isn't evidence by itself.
04-13-2023, 11:17 AM   #72
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Lots of theory here and no insight into real numbers.
Pentax is back on track after K3iii release, probably delayed, but first things first, next things next. Time to see the next projects becoming ready. Pentax stayed in business, sold K1 longer, cleared lens stocks, … time to look ahead.
04-13-2023, 11:34 AM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by zapp Quote
Lots of theory here and no insight into real numbers.
Pentax is back on track after K3iii release, probably delayed, but first things first, next things next. Time to see the next projects becoming ready. Pentax stayed in business, sold K1 longer, cleared lens stocks, … time to look ahead.
People keep looking ahead for a K-1iii. Whether there is one depends on a very practical issue - did the last one add profits for Pentax. That is why I keep asking that question.
04-13-2023, 11:43 AM - 2 Likes   #74
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
People keep looking ahead for a K-1iii. Whether there is one depends on a very practical issue - did the last one add profits for Pentax. That is why I keep asking that question.
No one here would know and I don't think Pentax is going to give you any answer so it's useless to keep asking.
04-13-2023, 03:35 PM - 1 Like   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
People keep looking ahead for a K-1iii. Whether there is one depends on a very practical issue - did the last one add profits for Pentax. That is why I keep asking that question.
I'd wager that it probably was. The K-1ii is a K-1 with a different motherboard. As such, the camera's development cost would have been relatively low. But, of course, I'm guessing.

Another thing to consider (and I'm not, of course, saying this is the case for Pentax) is that businesses do not always exist to make profit for their shareholders. Usually, but not always. I know of several that continuously run at a loss, but that suits their owners, usually, for one of only a few reasons, for example:
1. To offset the profit made by one or more of their other businesses and reduce taxable income.
2. Because the technology developed in one business may benefit one or more of their other businesses.
3. Because of being a hobby or vanity or artistic project for the owner(s).

All I'm saying is it may not simply be about profit. And, even if it was, the owner(s) won't say whether they're making a profit or not, except as required from their shareholder reporting.

Last edited by MarkJerling; 04-13-2023 at 03:38 PM. Reason: typo
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