[Rondec]

Pentax is going to come out with new cameras at widely spaced intervals. If a new K-1 III comes out this fall, I would not expect to see a K-1 IV for 6 or 7 years. Once a year or every couple of years they will come out with new versions based on that base model -- different color schemes, monochrome, astro version. Their goal is no longer (if it ever was) to gain market share, but simply to generate adequate revenue to keep moving forward.

A niche brand they are, but a viable niche brand as long as they don't make mistakes.

[StiffLegged]

...The much more difficult part of running a business is to have a vision of the future that turn out to be accurate when the future become the present and make the right decisions ahead of time...

And who is to supply these accurate visions? Middle management? The board? Economists? Holders of a Harvard MBA? Madame Zaza? Or perhaps your good self? None of these have an even slightly better than average track record, so forgive me if your concise analysis sounds like so much bogonomic theory, as applicable to the other camera manufacturers as to Ricoh.


To return to the original subject, it is encouraging to read of some good results; especially since I'd like to get a capable K-mount replacement for my K-7 some day and so many say brand xyz is doooomed.

[c.a.m]

To return to the original subject, it is encouraging to read of some good results;

Definitely.

"Camera business profitable for third straight quarter" (presentation slide 13) -- that's a positive indicator.


- Craig

[jersey]

Not sure how many new customers are coming to the Pentax FF system at this point in time. What I read multiple users saying that they can't invest in expensive glass (such as the DFA*85) because they aren't sure when the FF system is going.

Not only FF. I am reluctant to get better lenses despite having APS-C cause I am not sure if there will be next APS-C camera and lenses usually outlive bodies. I would gladly get 150-450 for summer airshows that seem to be finally restarting in Poland after Covid farce, but I would expect to have it live for at least two subsequent bodies and... well I have Pentax

[biz-engineer]

To return to the original subject, it is encouraging to read of some good results

Any business can make money for 3 quarters simply by cutting costs, winding down projects. Depends on what costs are being cut. Some cost cutting have serious consequences on the future capability to make and sell new products. Sometimes, it's better to lose money for 3 quarters and keep customers for the years to come, as opposed to make money for 3 quarters and lose customers forever.

[Rondec]

Any business can make money for 3 quarters simply by cutting costs, winding down projects. Depends on what costs are being cut. Some cost cutting have serious consequences on the future capability to make and sell new products. Sometimes, it's better to lose money for 3 quarters and keep customers for the years to come, as opposed to make money for 3 quarters and lose customers forever.

Don't you think Pentax is working on anything right now? It isn't like they have laid anyone off.

As far as we know they are working on a film camera, a K-3 III monochrome, and the K-1 III, plus whatever GR next version will come out down the road. There is no indication that there was some kind of major cost cutting endeavor four or five quarters ago so I'm not sure where that assumption comes from. Certainly they have a pretty lean operation, but they are still releasing new products. I imagine we'll get the last DFA * prime this year as well.

[pschlute]

Don't you think Pentax is working on anything right now? It isn't like they have laid anyone off.

As far as we know they are working on a film camera, a K-3 III monochrome, and the K-1 III, plus whatever GR next version will come out down the road. There is no indication that there was some kind of major cost cutting endeavor four or five quarters ago so I'm not sure where that assumption comes from. Certainly they have a pretty lean operation, but they are still releasing new products. I imagine we'll get the last DFA * prime this year as well.

Well said sir.

I know we all make assumptions in topics like these, but some of the comments here are from the twilight zone.

[Rondec]

Well said sir.

I know we all make assumptions in topics like these, but some of the comments here are from the twilight zone.

The thing is that Pentax didn't have some major re-organization or lay off a year ago. They continue to make announcements and do interviews indicating their path forward. The K-3 III currently sells for 1700 (B and H/Amazon prices US), so discounted from the release price, but really steady. There is no indication that they are having trouble selling it and the all black version seems to have sold pretty well and isn't available in many places.

Some may not like the path forward -- slow, steady releases, one-off versions of existing cameras, one to two new lenses a year, no MILC -- but it is obvious to me that there is a plan and Pentax is executing it well enough to generate a profit on the imaging side of things.

[biz-engineer]

It isn't like they have laid anyone off.

Do we have a record of headcount working for the Pentax division over the last five years?

---------- Post added 11-02-23 at 12:01 ----------

As far as we know they are working on a film camera, a K-3 III monochrome, and the K-1 III, plus whatever GR next version will come out down the road.

For the K33 monochrome, we have some video talk and rumors. We haven't see any slight rumor about the K1 III development or GR. GR is not ILC, so I'm not concerned about it, for me getting or not getting one of the GR is like getting a compact camera from any other brand.
For K mount cameras, the situation is different as I'm thinking about what to do with my K mount lenses if the K1 is the last Pentax full frame camera. Ricoh sent a press release saying that they'll stop mass production of cameras , replaced by workshop style such as the J limited, so for me that would mean there won't be any new full frame camera unless it's just a J limited version of the original K1 II from parts they have in stock. Unless Ricoh decides to disclose that they will mass produce a new full frame camera. They would need to disclose their full frame plan so that it's easier to decide to sell my lenses or keep them. I don't think I'll be satisfied with K1 performance for the next 10 years in case Ricoh decided that the K1II is their last full frame DSLR. So if Ricoh would tell that the K1 II is last Pentax FF DSLR, I would put all my Pentax lenses for sale.

[Rondec]

Do we have a record of headcount working for the Pentax division over the last five years?

---------- Post added 11-02-23 at 12:01 ----------


For the K33 monochrome, we have some video talk and rumors. We haven't see any slight rumor about the K1 III development or GR. GR is not ILC, so I'm not concerned about it, for me getting or not getting one of the GR is like getting a compact camera from any other brand.
For K mount cameras, the situation is different as I'm thinking about what to do with my K mount lenses if the K1 is the last Pentax full frame camera. Ricoh sent a press release saying that they'll stop mass production of cameras , replaced by workshop style such as the J limited, so for me that would mean there won't be any new full frame camera unless it's just a J limited version of the original K1 II from parts they have in stock. Unless Ricoh decides to disclose that they will mass produce a new full frame camera. They would need to disclose their full frame plan so that it's easier to decide to sell my lenses or keep them. I don't think I'll be satisfied with K1 performance for the next 10 years in case Ricoh decided that the K1II is their last full frame DSLR. So if Ricoh would tell that the K1 II is last Pentax FF DSLR, I would put all my Pentax lenses for sale.

You read the interview that JPT posted in a different thread. It gives a pretty clear picture of what Pentax is thinking of. It isn't long on specifics and doesn't say that they will for certain release a K-1 III by the end of this year, but they clearly are working on things other than the J limited project.

Why you would assume they are lying in all of these interviews is beyond me.

As for a head count, the question isn't whether they laid someone off five years ago -- they certainly have had some restruction. The question is whether they have had serious lay offs around the time that they started turning a profit and there is no indication that that has happened.

[JPT]

At the last Pentax event, one person who spoke was introduced as a new member of the development team. So I would guess that even if some people are retiring, others are joining. Just the normal flow of business.

As mentioned before, the main change that happened was the shift to direct sales. Assuming that the retailers were taking something like 30% of the profit, it’s easy to see how this would make them more profitable if successful. It doesn’t imply staff cuts, except maybe the sales reps who used to go out to the retailers. Even in their case, I don’t think they’re gone, because they are running the customer engagement events and posting on social media and the website. I attended one event, and those sales guys were the ones running it.

As Rondec said, some people are in a bit of a dark place, where they think everyone is lying to them. The sad thing is that the next couple of releases are not likely to change their minds. It should be the K-3 III monochrome version and the J Limited edition, which they will probably see as further evidence that Pentax has closed their production line, rather than that they are just more agile at making new models.

[pschlute]

Ricoh sent a press release saying that they'll stop mass production of cameras , replaced by workshop style such as the J limited, so for me that would mean there won't be any new full frame camera unless it's just a J limited version of the original K1 II from parts they have in stock. Unless Ricoh decides to disclose that they will mass produce a new full frame camera. They would need to disclose their full frame plan so that it's easier to decide to sell my lenses or keep them. I don't think I'll be satisfied with K1 performance for the next 10 years in case Ricoh decided that the K1II is their last full frame DSLR. So if Ricoh would tell that the K1 II is last Pentax FF DSLR, I would put all my Pentax lenses for sale.

If I were not happy with my current kit I would sell it all now and move to a brand that does produce what I want. Luckily for me The K-1 II and all the recently produced FF lenses do exactly what I want.

Continuing to hang on and wait for Pentax/Ricoh to behave how you want them to, seems to me like a fool's-errand.

[biz-engineer]

If I were not happy with my current kit I would sell it all now and move to a brand that does produce what I want.

It would cost me a lot of money, much more money than buying a new up to date Pentax body.

Why you would assume they are lying in all of these interviews is beyond me.

Pentax didn't say that they are working on a new digital full frame camera. The last two press releases said that 1) they stop mass production of cameras and withdraw from B&M retail in Japan, 2) they are studying the feasibility of making and selling film cameras. Some people affirmed on the forum that Ricoh are working on a K1 III, but there is not a single evidence or statement from Ricoh themselves to confirm this information.

[pschlute]

It would cost me a lot of money, much more money than buying a new up to date Pentax body.

But you would have the kit you want now, not in one or two years time.

[bladerunner6]

Any business can make money for 3 quarters simply by cutting costs, winding down projects. Depends on what costs are being cut. Some cost cutting have serious consequences on the future capability to make and sell new products. Sometimes, it's better to lose money for 3 quarters and keep customers for the years to come, as opposed to make money for 3 quarters and lose customers forever.

I know I said I was through but…

In the last three quarters Pentax has introduced the KF, the O-GPS2, the new 100mm macro lens and firmware updates. And there was just the new GRIII Diary Edition which while a minor update does incur expenses before introduction.

Firmware updates have been as recent as December of 2022.

All of us know that new products don’t make money on the day they are introduced. It takes time for sales to be realized enough to cover product development costs.

Then there is at least a 30 day if not longer period to be paid for product after being shipped.

Plus there are still two lenses on the roadmap. And of course they could always do something like dropping the new macro into the roadmap just a few months before introduction. Or just introducing a lens like they did with the 55-300 PLM. Admittedly they aren’t guaranteed to do something like that again but they certainly have done it before.

All evidence points to them continuing to develop products and that profits were not achieved by suicidal cost cuts as you speculate.

Now have I proved this conclusively-no.

But this is like me saying all reindeer can’t fly. All data points to it. But you could remark maybe I haven’t looked everywhere or tried Santa’s magic pixie dust. And you are right- I haven’t looked everywhere or tried magic pixie dust.

But you just speculating on magic dust or there being reindeer that can fly at the North Pole doesn’t prove anything. You need to show us the magic pixie dust working.

All you have done is speculate is that they have slashed expenses these last three quarters when all evidence points otherwise.

There is no reason to believe your speculation because it is just that. The evidence clearly points in the other direction.

If you want us to believe in flying reindeer you need to give us proof and not speculation.