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12-30-2008, 11:55 PM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by jgredline Quote
Rumor has it that it is a 21mp body, but what ever....
Pentax K30D 21 MP coming soon - Photo.net Pentax Forum
Why is it that people are totally unrealistic? They want Pentax to have great AF, FF sensor, Flux Capacitor, and "they better keep it under $1K."

Where are the free lunches all these people must be enjoying regularly to have such expectations? I feel left out...

12-31-2008, 01:14 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by whatever7 Quote
A FF body will take better picture most of the (non DA) lenses. Slap a FA-J on a FF body and you can take great pictures with it!
FF cameras do not take good pictures. It is the lighting, the composition and the effort to capture or create images that count.

The great images I like lately are mostly the fine art shots with leaky light and poorly exposed subjects that work miracles.

If k30d is going to be FF with manual focusing, it sounds cool to me. But I am only prepared to pay for it only if Pentax had not crashed k20d body pricing later this year. I would prefer to spend my hard earned cash to explore the range finder lenses until the k30d is an outdated news.
12-31-2008, 03:03 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by jgredline Quote
Rumor has it that it is a 21mp body, but what ever....
Pentax K30D 21 MP coming soon - Photo.net Pentax Forum
That was a joke apparently. Read further down ...

Pentax said at the Photokina this year in an Interview that they currently do NOT work on a FF camera. But they are observing the market carefully.
So, for me it is 100% certain that in 2009 we will not see a FF Pentax.
12-31-2008, 04:53 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
This article includes the sentence: "given that a full-frame chip will cost approximately 12-16 times more to produce than an APS-C chip". If this badly researched, is has no value.

12-31-2008, 04:59 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Peter Zack Quote
This is an interesting theory and I appreciate the effort to create the graphing but there is one issue that could easily derail most companies plans. The world economic slump.
Most arguments work both ways. This argument is no exception.

In "good" economic times, companies tend to maximize profit and take no risk.

In "bad" economic times, companies realize that they either change something radically, or die. There is a reason why "crisis" means "chance" in some languages.

And an economic slump typically affects low margin products much more than high margin products (the rich stay rich while the poor just get poorer...).

So, your argument could be read that it is now that Pentax must take the risk and invest in FF. Of course, we all don't know...
12-31-2008, 05:12 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
It seems that the main advantage of increased size for sensors is reduced noise at higher ISO settings. The main disadvantage, apart from cost, seems to be the reduced depth of field that arises from the increased diameter of the image circle. Of course, that's also an advantage in those situations where discrimination is required, to isolate a subject from its background. Generally speaking, though, wider field of view shots, where large depth of field is almost always desirable, are probably advantaged by smaller sensors, and telephoto portraits are probably advantaged by larger ones.
Yes and no... the increased high iso performance is definitely one advantage.
But there are others too.

I have not found the DOF limitations in terms of lack of DOF to be an issue and wide angle work in partiular is an area where I really appreciate the 35mm format.

The one exception is macro work. I actually would prefer APS-C if that was my main thing.
Now for most other applications 35mm is definitely preferred.

The main disadvantage is price, bulk and weight, 35mm bodies are larger and heavier.

QUOTE=RobA_Oz;434037]It also seems from the little reading I've done on the subject, that a very high lens resolving power can be a problem for larger sensors than smaller ones with the same pixel count, so, when I hear people talk about full-frame sensors taking "better" pictures than smaller ones, I wonder what they're really talking about. Are they comparing like with like, or are they just impressed by the pixel count?[/QUOTE]
the resolving power thing is an issue equal to both format and a function of pixen density. Given equal MP count the 35mm digtial chip will not stress a lens as much as an APS-C one in terms of resolving power, but require the resoving power to be delivered covering a larger Image circle.
I am not sure 12MP sounds very impressive these days, but the 12MP currently available in the D3/D700 is from my experience some of the finest MP available.
Lens problems are lens problems and I think equal for both formats. I recall vignette and soft cornes being an issue with APS-C too.
if you are willing to pay the price for the top of the line 35mm lenses then such issues will be similar to what you will find in APS-C specific lenses IMHO.

QuoteOriginally posted by nostatic Quote
Why is it that people are totally unrealistic? They want Pentax to have great AF, FF sensor, Flux Capacitor, and "they better keep it under $1K."

Where are the free lunches all these people must be enjoying regularly to have such expectations? I feel left out...
That has been one of my main points on this subject too, peoples price expectations.

A 35mm digital body below 3000USD would be a market first, I am quite confident that Pentax would be able to produce an ecellent 35mm digital body, but how many of us are ready to hand over 3K to get it?
My guess is there would be few of us.

It is kind of like expecting to see a 645D priced around 5000 USD, it would be great if it happened, but I just have a really hard time seeing it happen.

QuoteOriginally posted by roentarre Quote
FF cameras do not take good pictures. It is the lighting, the composition and the effort to capture or create images that count.
So very true Roentarre.
12-31-2008, 06:13 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by whatever7 Quote
Sorry about the title. However I have done some homework on it, hear me out.

I recently collected the prcing history of Pentax DSLR bodies in the last few year. (I got them from nextag, camelcamelcamel, and old dpreview posts. Yes its not very accurate but the price change alot near the end of the product cycle. Basically it will give you guys a rough idea where the price is going.)


This gave me a clearer picture of Pentax's release schedule.

As you can see, it's a rough idea so please allow +-$100USD margin of error. And I didn't include some low end bodies because there is no space in the grid.

The "top tier" (or prosumer if you will) body ist D was announced at the end of '03, and the low end body DL was released in late '06. So it took 2 and half years for the 6mp sensor to trickle down to the cheapest low end body. For the 10mp sensor, it took 2 years exactly, K10D came out at Photokina 06 and the K-M/K2000 came out at Photokina 08.

So assuming this is Pentax's way of controlling the production cycles, the 14mp sensor will show up on the low end body 2 year after the K20D, which is early 2010. Obviously the 14mp sensor will show up on the mid-tier body first. And I remember some interview said that the K-M chassis will be shared with other Pentax bodies, then I am guessing a K300 with a 14mp sensor will come out early '09. I don't know if it will have weatherproof since it may base on the K-M body.

As for the next sensor, going from the 6mp-10mp-14mp trend, I am guessing it will be a 18mp sensor, give or take, coming out on the K30. I think it will have a list price closer to K10D than K20D. The K10D had a very reasonable $899 list price and it hardly had any price drop in the first year of its release, unlike the K20D, which droped half of its price quickly. If we don't see a K20D Super in 09, we should see a 18mp K30 coming early 2010.

Now what about the full frame. As you can see from the table, historically, Pentax's top end body, including the MZ-s came out at around $1500-1700 listed. IF Pentax were planning a FF body, it would release one when its prossible and profitable to produce a FF body in that price range.

Pentax also tradionally favor IQ over focusing speed and other pro features. So I think it just make sense. Pentax can spend $1000 to buy a FF sensor from Sony and stuff it in a K200D body and sell it for $1500, it would still be the cheapest FF and lot of people will buy it. The reason Pentax is not doing it is because going with Samsung will save them some money.

So when will the FF bodies drop to the 1500-2000 range. Right now the D700 is 2500. You can get a A900 for slightly higher. Give them two years to drop to the 1500 range is very reasonable. I wouldn't be surpriced if Nikon eventually merge the D200/D300 line with the D700 line. Two years can also give Pentax enough time to position the D20/D30 line to a lower price/market.

Anyway I am saving money for a 2010 FF body. Pentax or an used D700.
There is an impressive work behind your graph, but...

This is basically a linear extrapolation, in plain language meaning that you assume that the past trend will continue in the predicted future. This being the most popular way in economic "science" to predict what the economy will do in the future, I think many of us now would have little trust in this method. For a long time economical experts has been predicting stock market, house prices etc with this method (prices went up in the past, hence they will go up in the future, familiar isn't it?).

The weak point with this, for all field where you can apply it, is that it does not take into account non-linear processes. A global depression certainly qualify as a non-linear influence on what Pentax will do. It is typical in such a situation that you can see linear trends work well in the past couple of years, but all of a suddenly, nothing follows those trends. So my guess is that you can no longer predict the next couple of years of Pentax camera release in this way.

There is a joke among meteorologists (and since my basic degree is in meteorology I sort of fancy it):

"Why did God invent economists?
To make the meteorologists look more credible!"

Besides, I'm not so sure Pentax will continue to name cameras K10, K20, K30... etc. K-m may be the beginning of a new period of camera names. But that is just a guess. After all the K-m is K-2000 or something like that in the US, isn't it?
12-31-2008, 06:26 AM   #23
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full frame isnt about quality

full frame is about versatility

if you dont need that versatility, or that versatility is suplimented, then full frame is really wasted time for you

As a pentax user you have two options for an F1.2 lens, a pentax 50 and a cosina 55 (unless i'm missing something)

this lens on APS-C is a 75mm lens, that means that on digital, the widest angle of view that you can shoot using f1.2 is 75mm


the Sigma 20mm F1.8, on an APS-C camera, 30mm view is the largest that you can get at F1.8


the sigma 10mm F2.8 fisheye is the only lens that i am aware of that can provide pentax with the field of view of a 16mm f2.8 fisheye that is a little bit more readily available.


if the things you have read dont strike a chord with you, then the entire full frame debate is not for you!

as for high ISO quality, thats simply a matter of time as they keep making better pixels, the K20D is a perfect example of that already.

12-31-2008, 07:15 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by Douglas_of_Sweden Quote
There is an impressive work behind your graph, but...

This is basically a linear extrapolation, in plain language meaning that you assume that the past trend will continue in the predicted future. This being the most popular way in economic "science" to predict what the economy will do in the future, I think many of us now would have little trust in this method. For a long time economical experts has been predicting stock market, house prices etc with this method (prices went up in the past, hence they will go up in the future, familiar isn't it?).
...
Well Pentax is a very conservative and predictable company, its more conservative than any other camera company in the world. The fact that they are still makingg those totally old-fashion off color special edition bodies convince me their core management is still intact, no necessarily a good thing mind you.


QuoteQuote:

Besides, I'm not so sure Pentax will continue to name cameras K10, K20, K30... etc. K-m may be the beginning of a new period of camera names. But that is just a guess. After all the K-m is K-2000 or something like that in the US, isn't it?
Theyy didn't want to be confused with the canon 1000D, in the US market 1000D is call Rebel so they can still use the k2000 name.
12-31-2008, 07:38 AM   #25
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May 2008 $2,050 & July 2008 $1,750

I bought 2 new 5D this year and neither were "essentially the same as new 5DII"

One was $2,050 & other was $1,750 and this was back when their replacement was rumour, a long two year rumour. 5D had a three year life cycle and B&H still sells them new for $1,999 free delivery.

I bought my pair when Canon was offering 2 year factory warranty, and 3 day repair turnaround specials. I did not pay 5D2 price for them.

K20D launch price however didn't drop immediately like K10D did and I thought $1,299 issue was too high. So at same moment K20D still sold for $1,299 I bought my first 5D and then my second 5D for $750 more and $450 more than K20D cost.

Six weeks ago I added a K20D for $689 w/ 3 year warranty. I still like my K Mount glass and K20D is a great camera but I learned with pentax its best to wait 6 months or so for price to settle down.

So in reality I don't need a full frame K Mount dslr even though most of my glass is full frame with old fashion aperture selector ring at lensmount.

K20D is only 3 ounces lighter than 5D so they are more similar in size than dissimilar.




QuoteOriginally posted by whatever7 Quote
You really can't rely on Canon to take pity on you and drop the FF bodies price. The 5D price from 3 years ago was essentially the same as the new 5DII. So basically they are not dropping the price. Nikon even rip you off with the new D3x.

I did a search on completed auctions, new 5D bodies are going around 1500. That actually is a very good price. If I am in the market for a prosumer class camera I wouldn't think twice and go broke for the 5D.

I sill don't think C and N will flood the FF market though. They have too much established market to protect. It's up to the smaller players to make a play on it. That just gives me more support to my theory IMO. Maybe Pentax will go even lower. They will list it at 1499 and sell it at 1200. How many people in this forum will say no to a $1200 FF body?
12-31-2008, 09:09 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
This article includes the sentence: "given that a full-frame chip will cost approximately 12-16 times more to produce than an APS-C chip". If this badly researched, is has no value.
It's an old article written back when the 5D Mark I first came out, but it's still pretty good for listing the pro's & cons.
12-31-2008, 09:26 AM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Duplo Quote
A 35mm digital body below 3000USD would be a market first, I am quite confident that Pentax would be able to produce an ecellent 35mm digital body, but how many of us are ready to hand over 3K to get it?
My guess is there would be few of us.
Not quite. The MSRP on the 5D Mark II body is $2700. The Nikon D700 MSRP is $3000, but it is currently selling for $2350 from some "safe" online stores. And of course the old 5D can be had brand new for under $1800 now.

Keep in mind all three of those are full blown magnesium built tanks. There is no reason Nikon couldn't build a full frame "D90". If they can sell an APS-C D90 body for $850 then there is no reason they can't make a full frame version for $1500 or so. I suspect it would be a huge hit with all the people (and there are lots of them) that want FF, but simply can't justify the cost of the pro-grade bodies currently on the market. I still say if Pentax wants to gain market share they should be the first to make a consumer grade FF SLR instead of waiting till last like they did with the KM/K2000 in the affordable APS-C war.

The bottom line is anyone that uses cost as a reason not to build a FF camera are kidding themselves. In 3-5 years the cost difference between APS-C & FF will be almost non-existent.
12-31-2008, 09:29 AM   #28
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What I said was the 5DII listed price is 3000, which is the same as 5D when it first came out three years ago. Therefore, we should assume the 5DIII will have the same listed price when it come out three years from now.

But I agree with the sentiment that the the price of low end FF bodies will continue to drop. Maybe the 50D successors one or two cycles down the road will be a FF.
12-31-2008, 09:38 AM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by whatever7 Quote
A FF body will take better picture most of the (non DA) lenses. Slap a FA-J on a FF body and you can take great pictures with it!
Where on earth did you get this idea from?

The CA, edge softness, shitty bokeh and lack of contrast is bad enough on an APS 6MP camera, so how exactly are all these issues "cured" by moving to FF? I assure you there are some very expensive FF film lenses out there that are very disappointing on FF.

If you want an FF camera just buy one but dont justify your decision with all this nonsense please and at least do it justice by buying decent glass.
12-31-2008, 09:50 AM   #30
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Agreed !

In 5 years full frame versus aps-c cost will be a wash due to lowered sensor manufacturing costs and features alone will determine admission price. If Pentax has no full frame then they need something to set them apart:

Like system wide Weather sealing or better yet "guaranteed" weather proofing, Frames per second, HD video, dual card slots, articulated viewscreen...

People think canon lenses are not weathersealed yet half of mine are. 5D2 is weathersealed too. Not 5D though.


Today in my B&H shopping cart I've got a D700 with free delivery sitting there for $2,319. I own some nikon glass i've used, adapted to Canon FD F-1 bodies and later Eos-3 film bodies and now adapted to 5D. At somepoint I will add a D700 to use these Nikon items with auto aperture setting. I'd still like it to drop to a flat $2,000 and then I'm all in. Its that extra I'll either wait to see drop or pay. Plus the King of Ultra wides is Nikon's 14-24mm/2.8 and thats the one lense I'd buy. Since its issue the D700 is down almost $700 and the lens I covet is down $400. Waiting saves me money and with dslrs inhand I am not missing much. But for our annual summer gettaways I'd like to have D700 and 14-24mm/2.8 inhand. So I've got May09 to Sept09 to commit or pass till Spring 2010.


QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
Not quite. The MSRP on the 5D Mark II body is $2700. The Nikon D700 MSRP is $3000, but it is currently selling for $2350 from some "safe" online stores. And of course the old 5D can be had brand new for under $1800 now.

Keep in mind all three of those are full blown magnesium built tanks. There is no reason Nikon couldn't build a full frame "D90". If they can sell an APS-C D90 body for $850 then there is no reason they can't make a full frame version for $1500 or so. I suspect it would be a huge hit with all the people (and there are lots of them) that want FF, but simply can't justify the cost of the pro-grade bodies currently on the market. I still say if Pentax wants to gain market share they should be the first to make a consumer grade FF SLR instead of waiting till last like they did with the KM/K2000 in the affordable APS-C war.

The bottom line is anyone that uses cost as a reason not to build a FF camera are kidding themselves. In 3-5 years the cost difference between APS-C & FF will be almost non-existent.
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