[Supernaut]

Well Hoya has only had Pentax for two years now (if I remember correct). Development is not made overnight, not even one year is sufficient to make new AF, faster shutter, [the normal complaint list]. If Hoya is serious about Pentax, maybe the first major results are ready to be released now.

Is 2 years of new funding enough to result in a new upmarket K?D release? I'm sure that the engineers has made some good at Pentax and Samsung during the two years. The K-m can't have taken so much resources.

[ogl]

The modern camera is construction set.
New AF system was in development 1 year ago.
New shutter could be simply bought, PRIME is already made and it's really good processor.
Don't forget that Pentax has been photo-engineering company for a long times and has a lot of patents. 645D was ready on spring 2007. It was the camera for running-in of new technologies which we can see now in K20D and K200D.

Minolta and Pentax offered almost all that there are now in Japanese cameras.

[*isteve]

It's strange that Pentax can't offer 645D. The working prototype was in the spring of 2007.

The TOP camera is the vector of progress of company. K30D with the same CMOS sensor is not the progress.

Sony offers cameras with CCD and CMOS sensors and FF camera.

I don't want to see the same 15 MP APS-C sensor in all Pentax cameras forever.
To say honest I'm not delighted with CMOS sensor from Sony, Samsung and Canon (12.2, 14.6 and 15.1 MP)...

They CAN offer it, but heres the dilemma.

They need to buy a batch of Kodak sensors. Kodak will charge less the more they make. For the sake of argument, lets say the unit prive breaks out as follows:

$8000 each for 1000 sensors
$5000 each for 5000 sensors
$3000 each for 10000 sensors

Assume the body cost is around $2000 for limited production then we have a total production cost of

$10000 for 1000 units
$7000 for 5000 units
$5000 for 10000 units

Covering development costs, distribution, sales and after sales support adds a multiplier of about 2 - 3X so to turn a profit...

You need to sell 1000 units at $30000 or 5000 units at $20000 or 10000 units at $15000.

Clearly they will sell a lot more at $15000, but can they sell 10000 units? If not they will have a huge stock of unwanted inventory and will make a huge loss. Problem is, can they sell any at all at $30000?

They may well make a small batch for $30000 and discount the final part of the run simply to establish the camera in the market. If sales pick up they can build larger batches and discount them a bit more. However its all very risky.

Of course, Nikon and Canon have the same issue with FF bodies, but they have thousands of unit sales from the low end bodies to cover the cost/risk. I seriously doubt Nikon make much profit on the D700. The sole purpose of its existance is to twist the knife in Canons guts. Pentax could NEVER make one as cheap for precisely that reason AND expect to make a profit.

Sony are burning cash in a large bonfire called the A900.

All the people who say "all Pentax need to do is build an FF camera for under $2000" are effectively saying "all Pentax have to do is lose $500 on every camera they make".

They CAN offer it, but heres the dilemma.

They need to buy a batch of Kodak sensors. Kodak will charge less the more they make. For the sake of argument, lets say the unit prive breaks out as follows:

$8000 each for 1000 sensors
$5000 each for 5000 sensors
$3000 each for 10000 sensors

Assume the body cost is around $2000 for limited production then we have a total production cost of

$10000 for 1000 units
$7000 for 5000 units
$5000 for 10000 units

Covering development costs, distribution, sales and after sales support adds a multiplier of about 2 - 3X so to turn a profit...

You need to sell 1000 units at $30000 or 5000 units at $20000 or 10000 units at $15000.

Clearly they will sell a lot more at $15000, but can they sell 10000 units? If not they will have a huge stock of unwanted inventory and will make a huge loss. Problem is, can they sell any at all at $30000?

They may well make a small batch for $30000 and discount the final part of the run simply to establish the camera in the market. If sales pick up they can build larger batches and discount them a bit more. However its all very risky.

Of course, Nikon and Canon have the same issue with FF bodies, but they have thousands of unit sales from the low end bodies to cover the cost/risk. I seriously doubt Nikon make much profit on the D700. The sole purpose of its existance is to twist the knife in Canons guts. Pentax could NEVER make one as cheap for precisely that reason AND expect to make a profit.

Sony are burning cash in a large bonfire called the A900.

All the people who say "all Pentax need to do is build an FF camera for under $2000" are effectively saying "all Pentax have to do is lose $500 on every camera they make".

Steve,

I think they don't need 3x the price to make a profit since they already have a worldwide distribution network in place. Yes, I am aware that for this kind of cameras/price they have to provide a professional kind of services (in terms of equipment loans to selected customers, very fast replacement of broken gear and so on). But unlike many FF buyers who may already have lenses too boot and buy only the cheapest FF body they can find in this MF region IMHO many more will buy aditional lenses and Pentax has a comprehensive range which waits for the digital treatment and relaunch.

They actually mentioned that in the case of a 645D arrival this will have the highest resolution sensor available at the time so all of the sudden 15K for 50Mp doesn't sound very bad at all.

The best strategy for them I guess would be to:

- Get K-m as inexpensive as possible and like I predicted in November in Europe the kit was under 400 Euro and the dual kit under 500 Euro by 2008's end. This will be the entry level;
- Make a reduced in size/weight but improved version of K20D as K300D and put it between competition middle and upper middle tier cameras. There is no need for 2 APS-C cameras which means the lower one will be neutered just like C and N do to their models not to eat too much of the higher end ones market;
- Make a larger than APS-C / smaller than FF succesor for K20D with improved electronics and put it close to competition semi-pro APS-C (50D, D300) in price. They need the largest sensor they can make that's still significantly cheaper than a FF one (read 1 pass and the best coverage of the waffer). In time they will build a range of new FF lenses that will serve both this type of cameras and a future FF one;
- Make a MF with 50Mp or more but as compact as possible and sell it close to 15-20K with a range of lenses for prefessional usage.

This will effectively surround the competition range of cameras instead of fighting them directly.

Radu

[nostatic]

The best strategy for them I guess would be to:

- Get K-m as inexpensive as possible and like I predicted in November in Europe the kit was under 400 Euro and the dual kit under 500 Euro by 2008's end. This will be the entry level;
- Make a reduced in size/weight but improved version of K20D as K300D and put it between competition middle and upper middle tier cameras. There is no need for 2 APS-C cameras which means the lower one will be neutered just like C and N do to their models not to eat too much of the higher end ones market;
- Make a larger than APS-C / smaller than FF succesor for K20D with improved electronics and put it close to competition semi-pro APS-C (50D, D300) in price. They need the largest sensor they can make that's still significantly cheaper than a FF one (read 1 pass and the best coverage of the waffer). In time they will build a range of new FF lenses that will serve both this type of cameras and a future FF one;
- Make a MF with 50Mp or more but as compact as possible and sell it close to 15-20K with a range of lenses for prefessional usage.

This will effectively surround the competition range of cameras instead of fighting them directly.

Radu

I agree with this. I think they'll bypass the FF market for now, and if they're making a bigger sensor camera it will be some variant of the 645 project. That would be "pro", provide a halo effect, and fill another niche market.

The only issue I see with the rest is that currently the K200 just isn't small/light enough to fill the middle ground. The middle child is a tough one, and needs trickle down from the top model with streamlined designed and some newbie features. They got part of it right, but didn't differentiate enough from the K20d in size or the Km in performance.

Contrary to popular rumor, there are serious shooters who want a small/light package. Not everyone wants to walk around looking like a "pro" with some massive body and long zoom lens attached. That is why the G1 will likely be a hit for Panny. They are not only getting the "typical" entry level dSLR buyer, but a significant portion are more serious shooters who want something unobtrusive to carry instead of their "real" setup.

[*isteve]

Contrary to popular rumor, there are serious shooters who want a small/light package. Not everyone wants to walk around looking like a "pro" with some massive body and long zoom lens attached. That is why the G1 will likely be a hit for Panny. They are not only getting the "typical" entry level dSLR buyer, but a significant portion are more serious shooters who want something unobtrusive to carry instead of their "real" setup.

I quite agree. The Km is out there, the K300 could just be a smaller K20 with most of its basic photographic features and similar performance. The K30 could step up a performance class but have the same basic sensor package and perhaps a faster more advanced image processor, more buffer, a new AF system and some more customisation options. (Look at the D60, D90 and D300).

We will see I guess.

I quite agree. The Km is out there, the K300 could just be a smaller K20 with most of its basic photographic features and similar performance. The K30 could step up a performance class but have the same basic sensor package and perhaps a faster more advanced image processor, more buffer, a new AF system and some more customisation options. (Look at the D60, D90 and D300).

We will see I guess.

The only problem is that every single camera from those 3 you mentioned sells by itself in larger that 500K units per year so they actually need an hierarchy and market segmentation. But a cleverly build K300D will eat from both segments (D60/D90 and 450D/40D/50D) catering to more people. And in this days of economical downturn the value you get for you money may outstrip the frontal badge some value so much. So it will be clever for Pentax to no shoot itself in the foot by neutering the K300D in order to give K30D a fighting chance for a much bigger price but slightly better IQ in the end. So I see a triple assault based on price for the K-m, excelent value and features for money for K300D and better that APS-C image quality and much more Mps for the K30D.

All 3 current Pentax cameras share the same processor, exposure and AF (Safox 8) systems. The clever part is that if Pentax has inventory or contracts for more of those they can put them in K-ms they will roll of all year long. So in fact they are free to put in the 2 new cameras whatever they can bring on the market and this is the main reason I think we will see at very least a new Prime2 proc and a new AF system (maybe with fewer points on K300D and more on K30D) that will spread the R&D costs in far greather numbers of cameras. It makes no sense to develop a new AF system and put it only in a high end camera which will become thus even more expensive and not cure one of the most popular myths/complaints people tell about Pentax in a future mid tier model.

Radu

[Blue]

Will Pentax go Pro? When I say Pro, I mean a camera that many of the Canon and Nikon journalists as well as commercial photographers require. I am a pro and have no problem with the K20D, but there are those out there that demand faster AF, synch speed and FPS. Pentax is still fringe in the pro market and I would love to see a Flagship Model.

Will a pro Pentax increase the stature of their brand?

Ben

Oh and Happy New Year to all.

Ben,

I think they should produce a limited production camera in about 8-10,000 units that pushes the envelop to the limit. For example, Ford produces predominantly grocery getters, but they have been known to run out limited production muscle cars like the GT40 and GT.

Granted, the majority of us couldn't afford it but I couldn't justify the LX back in the 1980s either.

I guarantee the engineers at Farrari don't laugh at the Ford name. I guess I would expect the Pentax engineers to want to be able to take Canon and Nikon to the track and run them into the pavement.

[Blue]

15 years ago we were talking about advances in film and chemistry. Now we are talking about the advances in sensors. The only difference is that with film you could still use your LX body where as with the sensors you can't. What if someone comes up with a changeable sensor kind of like computer processors?

[vinzer]

15 years ago we were talking about advances in film and chemistry. Now we are talking about the advances in sensors. The only difference is that with film you could still use your LX body where as with the sensors you can't. What if someone comes up with a changeable sensor kind of like computer processors?

Someone already did, and it'll cost a lot. It's the RED system. And it only has adapters for EOS and Nikkor lenses (surprise, surprise).

The only problem is that every single camera from those 3 you mentioned sells by itself in larger that 500K units per year so they actually need an hierarchy and market segmentation. But a cleverly build K300D will eat from both segments (D60/D90 and 450D/40D/50D) catering to more people. And in this days of economical downturn the value you get for you money may outstrip the frontal badge some value so much. So it will be clever for Pentax to no shoot itself in the foot by neutering the K300D in order to give K30D a fighting chance for a much bigger price but slightly better IQ in the end. So I see a triple assault based on price for the K-m, excelent value and features for money for K300D and better that APS-C image quality and much more Mps for the K30D.

Well, I hope the K300D will be what you say it is. That's my preferred level of camera. It would be nice to see that 14MP wonder of a sensor in a Kxxx level body. And I hope they could put in a bigger buffer and an improved AF system, too.

I'm guessing we'll have to wait until March for that, but I'm hoping Hoya would surprise us with a CES announcement next week. My bet is that Sony will make some noise there, probably to announce an A700 replacement.

[ogl]

The situation now is:
camera-makers earn money selling lenses and accessories,
the profit in cameras is very small.

Pentax can offer 645D with small profit, but expensive 645 lenses.

[ogl]

Can Pentax put in K300D 12 CMOS sensor as in D90?

[Ratmagiclady]

Can Pentax put in K300D 12 CMOS sensor as in D90?

They could possibly put the 14.6 from the K20d in, I imagine. That would seem to be the pattern.

[vinzer]

Can Pentax put in K300D 12 CMOS sensor as in D90?

Well, they're supposed to. I don't see how they'll still keep the 10MP sensor in the K300D (the competition is at or moving towards 12MP for the most part), and developing a whole different sensor (say, a 12MP job) costs more R&D money.

[Chwisch87]

All 3 current Pentax cameras share the same processor, exposure and AF (Safox 8) systems. The clever part is that if Pentax has inventory or contracts for more of those they can put them in K-ms they will roll of all year long. So in fact they are free to put in the 2 new cameras whatever they can bring on the market and this is the main reason I think we will see at very least a new Prime2 proc and a new AF system (maybe with fewer points on K300D and more on K30D) that will spread the R&D costs in far greather numbers of cameras. It makes no sense to develop a new AF system and put it only in a high end camera which will become thus even more expensive and not cure one of the most popular myths/complaints people tell about Pentax in a future mid tier model.

Radu

Exactly ... all of those super high end ni-canons are made a loss with the hope of more consumer level models selling because "the pro's shoot nicanon"