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03-08-2009, 11:44 AM   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
The real scandal is that we even discuss FF vs. APS-C when the actual cost came down that much and we have allready paid the mechanics and glass for FF...
I think this is rather short-sighted, regarding the fact these are the production costs for the sensor manufacturer. F.e. I don't see any reason why Hasselblad should get their sensor for this price. They have to buy their sensor from the manufacturer - same as Nikon, Mamya, Pentax - who can charge a lot more, than this estimated price. If there is only one manufacturer for sensors of a specific size on the market, guess what the prices are related to?

That's also one reason I was quite happy by the announcement of the K20D as showing that there was growing a new kid in town with Samsung, who showed beeing capable of producing a competitive sensor and thus stirring up the market.

dan

03-08-2009, 12:17 PM   #32
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
FF sensors are stitched. Requires 2 passes thus doubling the error rate (if not more). They are NOT made in 1 piece/pass.
$30..$300...$3000 APS..FF...MF In Quantity.
I think my guess is better... are they down to $100 now?? Unlikely. By the time you see the "cost" the sensor alone is $900
Chipworks
Full frame sensors also present a unique challenge due to the die size being larger than what a normal lithography stepper is capable of printing. Current steppers from ASML, and notably Nikon and Canon typically have a 26 mm x 33mm maximum field size, large but still smaller than the full frame 24mm x 36mm requirement. To overcome this requires ‘stitching lithography’ where separate reticles (Stepper masks) each containing a portion of the die are exposed in serial fashion. This not only increases lithography costs due to the multiple steppings it is inherently difficult to ensure the on-die alignment needed............
This is where a square 24x24 sensor makes sense, at least from for cost considerations.
03-08-2009, 01:24 PM   #33
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You have to remember that Pentax will want to aim it at the professional grade, who can afford to pay that much for this kind of camera. Are you forgetting the Holga? The cheapest medium format film camera ever made. You can get one for less than $5 on ebay, and they never retailed for anything close to this. The body was plastic, but still sturdy, so if adding in the cost of the silicon to make the sensor, and say about $3000 per sensor for all the mechanics, they could easily make a huge profit margin while marketing it less than the Canon 1 series cameras.
03-08-2009, 04:10 PM   #34
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QuoteOriginally posted by Peter Zack Quote
I find it impossible to believe Hassie would get CCD's for $500
Kodak's KAF-50100 sensor (36 x 48mm, 50MPixels) costs $3500 in bulk. That price isn't going down fast - it's only 20% less than the same-sized (but fewer MP) KAF22000CE sensor they sold in 2002.

03-08-2009, 05:01 PM   #35
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Yea.. hoya buys american.. and I suppose a good deal for them at todays exchange rate.
If your price is correct, that's close to my guessitmate and really keeps the 645 "close" to affordable..
645 makes more sense every day

Specifications
03-08-2009, 05:05 PM   #36
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QuoteOriginally posted by Sean Nelson Quote
Kodak's KAF-50100 sensor (36 x 48mm, 50MPixels) costs $3500 in bulk. That price isn't going down fast - it's only 20% less than the same-sized (but fewer MP) KAF22000CE sensor they sold in 2002.
but $1 in 2002 was worth more than $1 in 2009...
03-08-2009, 05:28 PM   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
FF sensors are stitched.
[...]
Chipworks
Ok, this famous 10x legend again. It is pure speculation from sources weaker than mine. You are correct for the reticle. But only because too few FF sensors are made to justify larger reticles.

My estimate was about what FF sensors would cost if made in quantities!
QuoteOriginally posted by MMVIII Quote
I don't see any reason why Hasselblad should get their sensor for this price.
This is correct. This is what Samsung would have to pay internally for a FF sensor made in quantities. Not what they would charge Pentax for. That number probably is 3x higher...

But again: only because so few sensors are FF (yet).
QuoteOriginally posted by phenri Quote
This is where a square 24x24 sensor makes sense, at least from for cost considerations.
Of course not.
QuoteOriginally posted by Sean Nelson Quote
Kodak's KAF-50100 sensor (36 x 48mm, 50MPixels) costs $3500 in bulk.
So, the market price for a medium format sensor is 7x the cost. Makes sense. Given the margin in this market.

To repeat:

My entire argument was about the true cost to make large sensors (if produced in quantity). Currently, the FF market segment is a high margin segment, driven by high margins and low quantities. This will last as long as consumers accept the smaller APS-C format, not as long as technical reasons continue to exist (they ceased to do so...).
03-08-2009, 05:41 PM   #38
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Ok, this famous 10x legend again. It is pure speculation from sources weaker than mine. You are correct for the reticle. But only because too few FF sensors are made to justify larger reticles.

My estimate was about what FF sensors would cost if made in quantities!
Illya Borg proved the sensor in the Nikon uber-expensive FF is stitched...
All agree... sorry this is just a fact of current production... The link I stated showed that Canon was not stitched but they have their own fab. Yes it could be done, no it isn't. Speculation is it won't be for the proximate future... Sensors go completely against the current chip trends... smaller. I stand by mine guess and that blog...
but neither of us will probably find out the real truth
IF it was so simple (and cheap) to do this I would assume Nikon would have done it already.. they sell the steppers you know..... and sell them to sony as well.
you mock my $3000 and tell Sean OK to $3500????? yeesh.......
current $300-450 per FF sensor is quite realistic from other sources as well. might as well ask Sean where he got his number from.
W/ APS-C prices and economies ect NOBODY, certainly not Pentax is going to order 30mil FF sensors to obtain some imagined economies of scale. From most reports these are already being produced on depreciated equipment. They are as cheap as there likely to get for awhile.
Prey tell why you think chipworks is a weak source?
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If you follow to canon's whitepaper:
http://www.robgalbraith.com/public_files/Canon_Full-Frame_CMOS_White_Paper.pdf
Will you take Canon's word for it???????
$450 to $500, $1,000 or even $5,000. After several hundred process steps, perhaps
between 400 and 600 (including, for
example, thin film deposition,
lithography, photoresist coating and
alignment, exposure, developing,
etching and cleaning), one has a wafer
covered with sensors. If the sensors are
APS-C size, there are about 200 of them
on the wafer, depending on layout and
the design of the periphery of each
sensor. For APS-H, there are about 46
or so. Full-frame sensors? Just 20.
Consider, too, that an 8" silicon
wafer usually yields 1000 to 2000 LSI
(Large-Scale Integrated) circuits. If, say, 20 areas have defects, such as dust or
scratches, up to 1980 usable chips remain. With 20 large sensors on a wafer, each
sensor is an easy “target.” Damage anywhere ruins the whole sensor. 20 randomly
distributed dust and scratch marks could ruin the whole batch. This means that the
handling of full-frame sensors during manufacture needs to be obsessively precise,
and therefore they are more expensive.
Of course, there is more to this topic. For example, the circuit pattern of a fullframe
sensor is too large to be projected on the silicon wafer all at once; it requires
three separate exposures (See page 53). This means that the number of masks and
exposure processes is tripled. For now, appreciate that a full-frame sensor costs not
three or four times, but ten, twenty or more times as much as an APS-C sensor.
Here,


Last edited by jeffkrol; 03-08-2009 at 06:04 PM.
03-08-2009, 06:47 PM   #39
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
I stand by mine guess and that blog...
but neither of us will probably find out the real truth
[...]
you mock my $3000 and tell Sean OK to $3500????? yeesh.......
[...]
Prey tell why you think chipworks is a weak source?
[...]
For now, appreciate that a full-frame sensor costs not
three or four times, but ten, twenty or more times as much as an APS-C sensor.
Wow. What a long post. What can I say.
It is pretty obvious that you believe the words of chipworks more than mine. I am fine with that.

Still, you did not hint at any flaw in my argument.

I believe my own argument is pretty accurate. For chips produced in quantities. The chipworks argument guessed too many numbers (for my taste) and some of them are plain wrong. I already said they are right with their reticle argument. But it is a temporary argument due to low volume. However, the main flaw in their argument is their 20 vs. 200 circuits per wafer argument.

Using the link you have provided elsewhere:
VLSI chip yield demonstration
and adapting from 150mm to 300mm wafers, you see that you get exactly this number of circuits per wafer (excluding the waste):
- 23.5 x 15.7 (K10D APS-C): 164
- 24 x 36: 66 (above, I guessed 60. 66 is even better...)
- 56 41.5: 20 (as guessed above)

So, the layout factor is EXACTLY 2.48x (164/66), NOT 10x (200/20). I've seen this flaw in the source you cited before. But today is the day to compute exact figures to get this settled once and forever.

Whatever chipworks may be worth, this article isn't credible at all.

I accepted Sean's $3500 because this is an asking price in a very high margin market. I am fine with that. Such markets are almost decoupled from cost.


So for now, I don't appreciate that a full-frame sensor costs ten, twenty or more.

But I do appreciate that the industry has a high interest to make us believe exactly this and you did buy into their argument, even cited their papers (Canon)...


BTW...
The chipworks 200 vs 20 figure is from the Canon paper. I understand why they wrote this. But I don't understand why chipworks couldn't even apply the most simple math to veryify...

Last edited by falconeye; 03-08-2009 at 07:01 PM.
03-08-2009, 07:11 PM   #40
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Well I found someone more cynical then myself......
I can see Canon stretching things a bit but not to the extent that you would like to believe.... EVEN if that's the cost it is unlikely (the "legend" is around) that a fab plant would sell it to you for that price....
You could be right but, currently, I doubt it. Let others judge I guess...
fo what it's worth here is the blog authors credientials:
As vice president, Technical Intelligence, Mr. Tomkins leads the engineering teams and guides the sales, marketing and product management activities. Previously Gary headed up Chipworks’ core capabilities team and was a senior member of Chipworks Technical Intelligence business unit. Technical Intelligence at Chipworks works closely with customers around the globe, delivering technical analysis that helps them to benchmark their product roadmaps, reduce the time-to-market and de-risk research and development.

Prior to his appointment to vice president, Gary led the Chipworks technical intelligence engineering team which includes the Chipworks circuit and process reverse engineering teams focused on providing competitive technical intelligence.

In a career spanning more than 20 years Gary has been on the technology and business sides of semiconductors and telecom; he’s equally comfortable as a process engineer or business leader managing more than 250 technology professionals.

Before joining Chipworks, Gary was director of operations at Nortel Network’s High Performance Optical Components line of business (divested to Bookham Technology in November 2002.) Gary was accountable for the production of semiconductor lasers, detectors and modulators used in modern optical networks.

Read more about Gary Tomkins
http://www.ice-corp.com/executive_team.aspx?#gtomkins
03-08-2009, 10:51 PM   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
might as well ask Sean where he got his number from.
Here's one source: EEProductCenter.com :: Kodak delivers next-generation 50-MP CCD image sensor
03-09-2009, 02:29 AM   #42
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Can somebody confirm this translation of RiceHigh?
QuoteQuote:
The development of the 645D system has also led to some "motivation" and new "driving force" in the development of "new 35mm full frame system". It should not be seen as we had aborted the K-mount (full frame) lens system, as it wasn't.
RiceHigh's Pentax Blog: Interview with Hoya Senior Official on Pentax's Latest Directions
03-09-2009, 04:37 AM   #43
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https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/53558-hoya-pentax-answ...ur-future.html
yes. it's strange information, but true.
03-09-2009, 12:44 PM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
fo what it's worth here is the blog authors credientials:
that just shows that he good @ selfmarketing and put enough smoke to get the job (job, not the job done), that's it...
03-09-2009, 04:45 PM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by froeschle Quote
Can somebody confirm this translation of RiceHigh?
It has similarities with the translation provided by Google:
QuoteOriginally posted by http://dc.watch.impress.co.jp/cda/other/2009/03/09/10386.html:
「645デジタル向けにも開発を行ないますから、マウントを新規に起こして新システムを再構築するには35mmフルサイズ機のシステムを作り上げるのと同じぐらいのパワーが必要になります。今のKマウントシステムを捨ててまでの利点があると判断できないと、踏み込むことはできません」(川内氏)
QuoteOriginally posted by http://dc.watch.impress.co.jp/cda/other/2009/03/09/10386.html:
"645 to do the development for the digital, to rebuild the new system is causing a new 35mm mounting is required as the power of creating a system of full-size machine.'s Now K mount and can not be deemed to have the advantage of abandoning the system, it can not go "(Mr. Kawauchi)
Do we have an Japanese speaking member on this board to have an accurate translation of this sentence? It could be the first official statement about a forthcoming Pentax FF DSLR, or not...
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