[jct us101]

Take off a 0 and you're closer. Remember how abundant Silicon is.

[Mike Cash]

LOL Aint it the truth!

Hey, we know Mike Cash--I'll bet he'll do this for us.

Anyone wishing to send me $20,000 is cordially invited to do so.

[Jasvox]

Expect this camera body to be special order only and will retail somewhere between $15 and 20k USd.

If I was a portrait/wedding photographer for a living and it was my only profession AND making me serious money...I'd be interested, otherwise, I could care less.

Jason

[Peter Zack]

If they marketed it right and sold it below $10,000, then they'd have a great selling margin, and even though they wouldn't be profiting AS MUCH on each unit, they'd still be profiting from the volume of sales. Now if someone would just explain that to them then we'd be fine.

I've heard sensors that size cost $5000 or more alone (I have no idea if that's true). Assuming that's close to correct, adding all the other costs of design, production etc. There's no way this camera could come in at $10K.

The P45 MSRP is $37999.00 and the $32,000 Hasselblad H3D would make it unlikely the Pentax could come in at $10 K.

Making money on volume is a fallacy. You still need margins no matter how many you sell. GM would be a good example of that.

Take off a 0 and you're closer. Remember how abundant Silicon is.

I do try whenever possible to post stuff that has some basis in reality vs just "out of my butt, internet blather". When I posted the $5000 estimate for the cost of a DMF chip, the info came from an article Understanding Sensor Design
A well respected and researched source.

To quote: "Imaging sensors come in different sizes, ranging from smaller than the nail on a baby's pinky finger to almost the size of 645 format film. A sensor chip's size is a key variable in determining its cost. Chips are made from silicon wafers. Whereas literally thousands of sensor chips, such as those used in a web cam, can be cut from a single wafer, only a handful of medium format chips can be derived from a standard 6"or 8" wafer. This means that their wholesale costs can range from less than a dollar, to more than $5,000 per finished chip."

So he's saying the smallest imaging sensors are $1.00 and the largest (6x4.5) can be up to $5000.00

So again this camera isn't going to be $10,000.

[rparmar]

Peter is right. The price of sensors goes up exponentially with the size, as there's no way to stitch them together... you need a whole one with all parts working.

Don't you think full-frame and medium format digital cameras would be cheaper if the manufacturers could get away with it? I am sure they'd love the increased market a lower price point would bring.

[falconeye]

more than $5,000 per finished chip.

The price of sensors goes up exponentially with the size

Old sources, exaggerated cost estimates...

From IC Knowledge - 300mm Wafer Costs, a 300mm 0.13µm linewidth logic wafer was $3,400 in 2001. It surely is less than $2,000 today.

A 300mm wafer has the surface of thirty 56×41.5mm^2 chips(81 FF chips). Maybe twenty sensors due to waste (imperfect layout).

The yield goes down "exponentially" with size. But that's only a problem for very large sizes, not for normal sizes.

Let y1 be the yield rate (good/overall rate) for APS-C and y2 that for medium size.

Then: y2 = y1^6.3

With y1=90%, we get y2=51% (=twice the cost due to lower yield rate). I think a yield rate of 90% for APS-C is realistic because pixel defects can be tolerated.

Overall, this yields a cost estimate for a medium format sensor (2009) of

Cost (56mm×41.5mm CMOS sensor) = $200 ($2000 / 20 / 0.51)

jct us101 was rather correct in his comment even if by pure chance

--
Note:
If y1=80% only, y2 drops to 25% and the cost estimate increases to $400, and $1000 for y1=70%. But that's about it.

Note 2:
Add to the above cost for cutting, testing and packaging.


UPDATE:
I found this for the defect density:
http://www.icknowledge.com/trends/defects.pdf
With a defect density of 0.04/cm^2 (year 2000, 2009 projection is 0.01/cm^2 ...), we get 0.147 defects / APS-C-sized CMOS chip.
This translates with good accuracy to y1=85% or y2=35% => $290 per medium format sensor.

Add to this the cost for development depreciation, cutting, testing, packaging and we end up at about $500.

[Peter Zack]

OK I admit I'm way out of my league here now but I've also read that the linewidth of a CCD sensor used in all 3 sized imaging sensors is typically 12nm. What you've provided seems to be for 300nm sensors and that last chart is referencing CMOS logic and memory chips. I don't see it saying anywhere that they are talking about imaging chips. So are we talking apples and oranges here?

I find it impossible to believe Hassie would get CCD's for $500 and retail the camera for $32,000. They make incredible bodies but at that kind of cost discrepancy?

[falconeye]

Because the above cost estimate is the best I know of (even if it is mine, I know of no better one in the web ), let me add the figures for FF here:

300mm Wafer: $2500
Chips / wafer: 60 (81 - waste)
Yield rate: 68%
-------------------------
Cost per chip real estate: $61
Cutting, testing, packaging: +50%
-------------------------
Cost per chip real estate: $91
Development: $500,000
Volume: 40,000 (5 models for 2% 10 million DSLR/y)
Development depreciation: $12.5
-------------------------
Total: $103.5

Or, as a rough estimate (+/- 50%): $100 per FF CMOS sensor.

[falconeye]

linewidth of a CCD sensor used in all 3 sized imaging sensors is typically 12nm. [...]
I find it impossible to believe Hassie would get CCD's for $500 and retail the camera for $32,000. They make incredible bodies but at that kind of cost discrepancy?

Intel is fighting hard to get the 32nm process under control
Silicon Innovation
So, you must have a time machine into year 2020 here
BTW, 300mm or 12" is a wafer's diameter.

CMOS imaging sensor somewhat is a combination of DRAM and logic process technology. Using both capacities and logic. What matters is the number of layers required. Regular structures are cheaper than logic circuitry because less layers are required. I used the (higher) cost of logic circuitry.

Why do you find it incredible that a $32,000 Hassie sports a $500 sensor when a $1,300 Nikon D300 sports a $25 APS-C sensor only? Same 2% relationship here! Of course, you will need more processor horsepower (due to the higher pixel count) as well which would also add to the cost.

The real scandal is that we even discuss FF vs. APS-C when the actual cost came down that much and we have allready paid the mechanics and glass for FF...

[VeijoM]

... to follow Pentax's plans when they actually don't seem to have any. Like the new camera in the summer (according the interview had 'changed concept'). Admittedly Pentax makes good ones when they make, but still too much uncertainty about what is the direction Pentax is trying to head to.

Expect this camera body to be special order only and will retail somewhere between $15 and 20k USd.

If I was a portrait/wedding photographer for a living and it was my only profession AND making me serious money...I'd be interested, otherwise, I could care less.

Jason

If I were a professional (photographer), I wouldn't care one inch about products that don't deliver me money right now. Seems like Pentax wanted to satisfy some very small group of people (maybe some japanese honor question) by giving a real birth for this camera they think won't be worth distributing or won't bring them profit. But all we hobbyists are interested if Pentax can deliver, although we probably won't be buying (645D) anyway.

-Veijo-

[Peter Zack]

Falconeye, As I said, this is way above my pay grade and I'm not going to argue something I have about 12nm of knowledge about You have the final word here unless someone has a greater insight.

[falconeye]

unless someone has a greater insight.

I think we have a student of semiconductor engineering in the forum

(however, last time I asked for yield rates, he couldn't come up with actual numbers...).

[benjikan]

Just rent when you need one. A lot cheaper. Thats what Advertising clients do when there is a production. If I am requested to shoot MF, the client has to pay for the rental. Just like the studio and the whole production. The K20D works for all of my magazine stuff and is almost over kill.

Ben

[Samsungian]

I've read my Canon 5D will run me about $400 to have a new full frame sensor installed at Canon Service in NJ or CA USA.

I've read 5D shutter will run $250 installed and warrantied 1 year.

5D Complete Mirror box assembly replaced $225. Canon has had a recall on these, now they do'um for free. Mirror glue gets unstuck on some earlyier bodies so they replace entire assembly and re spec it. Again with all factory service center repairs, 1 year warranty on parts and labor.


I think you've got a handle on the sensor costs.


Its obvious thesedays when forum posters say Canon and Nikon are loosing money offering their full frame bodies for:

$2449, $2699, $4350, $6999, and $8,000

Forum Posts generally are merely speculating on the perceived cost. What film camera did Nikon or Canon ever offer for $7,000 to $8,000? These FF Dslrs are NOT Loss Leaders designed to sell cheap rebels and D60's or glass. I'd guess the shutter and film transport system on a 8 to 10 frame per second film camera was a costly item to make and design to last for 250,000 shots on average rating. So you can deduct the high speed film transport costs and add a sensor. Shouldn't all full frame dslrs be no more than $1700, origial price of Eos 1V or a couple hundred more for F6 launch? F6 Nikon are now crazy expensive approaching $4,000. Ouch, but origially half this cost upon issue.

Because the above cost estimate is the best I know of (even if it is mine, I know of no better one in the web ), let me add the figures for FF here:

300mm Wafer: $2500
Chips / wafer: 60 (81 - waste)
Yield rate: 68%
-------------------------
Cost per chip real estate: $61
Cutting, testing, packaging: +50%
-------------------------
Cost per chip real estate: $91
Development: $500,000
Volume: 40,000 (5 models for 2% 10 million DSLR/y)
Development depreciation: $12.5
-------------------------
Total: $103.5

Or, as a rough estimate (+/- 50%): $100 per FF CMOS sensor.

[jeffkrol]

I think we have a student of semiconductor engineering in the forum

(however, last time I asked for yield rates, he couldn't come up with actual numbers...).

FF sensors are stitched. Requires 2 passes thus doubling the error rate (if not more). They are NOT made in 1 piece/pass.
$30..$300...$3000 APS..FF...MF In Quantity.
I think my guess is better... are they down to $100 now?? Unlikely. By the time you see the "cost" the sensor alone is $900
http://www.ice-corp.com/blogs.aspx?id=4626&blogid=86
Full frame sensors also present a unique challenge due to the die size being larger than what a normal lithography stepper is capable of printing. Current steppers from ASML, and notably Nikon and Canon typically have a 26 mm x 33mm maximum field size, large but still smaller than the full frame 24mm x 36mm requirement. To overcome this requires ‘stitching lithography’ where separate reticles (Stepper masks) each containing a portion of the die are exposed in serial fashion. This not only increases lithography costs due to the multiple steppings it is inherently difficult to ensure the on-die alignment needed............
For an APS-C sized sensor there are ~200 sensors printed per wafer. Thus even ignoring the significant challenges of yielding the huge full frame die, there is a 10x difference in cost of producing the full frame sensors over the APS-C size. The consumer/prosumer cameras now span the $500-$1500 price range, the latest full-frame sensor DSLR’s span the $5000-8000 range. For the full frame sensors I believe achieving a average 50% yield or 10 sensors per wafer would be impressive (One thing for sure the semiconductor manufacturers will not be disclosing what their die yields are, that is always the most closely guarded secret.) Thus I speculate with probing and packaging (These die justify a very expensive ceramic package) the cost to manufacture these sensors to be ~$300-400 each, compared to ~$70-80 for an APS-C sensor. Without the luxury of die shrinks available to reduce costs I believe it will be a long time before we see the full frame sensors on sub $1500 cameras. (But I would like to be proved wrong.)