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04-09-2007, 12:07 PM   #1
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It's crystal ball time, what's your guess

Hoya and Pentax are having second thoughts about the merger.
Pentax stock jumps, board split on Hoya merger | Technology, Media & Telecom | Reuters

The fun starts. My prediction is Hoya makes a hostile takover of Pentax and to offset the higher cost this entails they spin off the camera division to Samsung at the same time. The name Pentax may disappear because of ego but the K mount will be pushed like Sony does with the KM mount.

Regards,

04-09-2007, 12:59 PM   #2
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my understanding is, that the Pentax brand will be kept, for the camera's,
it's not going to be a wholly subsidiary, all other departments and building be merged with Hoya.
as such, I don't think , the Pentax name will disappear any time soon.
for Samsung, think they will have an increased amount of manufacturing capabilities , that will cover higher volume for pentax,
heard even rumors of new sensor manufacturing, probably licensed technology , what should yield a better price/availability ratio for the pentax/samsung leverage.

just my 2 cents, Robert

QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
Hoya and Pentax are having second thoughts about the merger.
Pentax stock jumps, board split on Hoya merger | Technology, Media & Telecom | Reuters

The fun starts. My prediction is Hoya makes a hostile takover of Pentax and to offset the higher cost this entails they spin off the camera division to Samsung at the same time. The name Pentax may disappear because of ego but the K mount will be pushed like Sony does with the KM mount.

Regards,
04-09-2007, 01:20 PM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
My prediction is Hoya makes a hostile takover of Pentax and to offset the higher cost this entails they spin off the camera division to Samsung at the same time. The name Pentax may disappear because of ego but the K mount will be pushed like Sony does with the KM mount.
Getting rid of the Pentax brand would be a big mistake, I think. I understand that Samsung has done a good job in the camera market and I respect them for that, but I'm afraid that the word "Samsung" still makes me think of microwave ovens, not cameras....

Will
04-09-2007, 01:29 PM   #4
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Pentax

Pentax will survive, even if it means as an independent camera manufacturer. The momentum that was catapulted by the release of the K100 and K10D as well as their new lens arsenal guarantee their success.

I will be speaking with the "Boys and Girls" next week and will get back to you with their impressions.

Ben

04-09-2007, 02:00 PM   #5
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Pentax will live on in some form

QuoteOriginally posted by benjikan Quote
Pentax will survive, even if it means as an independent camera manufacturer. The momentum that was catapulted by the release of the K100 and K10D as well as their new lens arsenal guarantee their success.

I will be speaking with the "Boys and Girls" next week and will get back to you with their impressions.

Ben
Because of the Mount, Pentax will continue, it MIGHT have a different name on it. The Koreans (Samsung) would have a hard time dealing with a Japanese Name. I hope they keep the name but it may not happen.

Regards,
04-09-2007, 06:27 PM   #6
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Ken... I sure hope your predictions are faulty.

I'm with Will and Ben and Rob...

You hear the word PENTAX and everyone, even the canoniers and nikonistas, think CAMERA... You hear the word Samsung and most people think "appliances" (not to knock their great K-mount cameras at all).
04-10-2007, 05:28 AM   #7
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Merger is off.

Here is the latest news,

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=media&storyID=nT295458

So now it goes to the next step. They are no longer playing nice and Hoya will start a hostile takeover. Their stock dropped because of this and it will go back up when they start going after Pentax with a hostile move. This might bring in other bidders, ( Samsung, Fuji?). IMO this was a smart move by Pentax. It drives up the price but doesn't alter the final outcome which is somebody will buy out Pentax. I think this almost guarantees that Pentax will introduce new models this year in hopes of driving the price higher. Might even see better rebates on lenses and cameras to stimulate sales.

It appears this is good news for us, lower prices and new models. The downside is managements attention is being taken away from the business at hand, running the company.

Regards,
04-10-2007, 05:44 AM   #8
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I'm all for lower prices! As long as whoever buys Pentax keeps the name and maintains or improves quality levels I'll be happy. God forbid they drop the Pentax name and ruin the product. I dont really want to have to become a Canonista...

04-10-2007, 06:00 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by regken Quote
This might bring in other bidders, ( Samsung, Fuji?)
Fuji buying them wouldnt be too bad. At least then it would be a company with some decent camera manufacturing experience. Imagine fuji's remarkable super ccd sensor coupled with the shake reduction of the k10d.

Or even a pro body with a upgraded version of the sensor and the shake reduction. Would be a wedding photogs dream.
04-10-2007, 07:47 AM   #10
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Some further musings ..

Apparently only a Japanese company can buy amother Japanese company, may be a challenge for some (Samsung?).

Seiko Epson would be another possibility, they are in the imaging business and Seiko Optical distribute Pentax spectacles throughout Europe and compete with Hoya spectacle lenses!

There are so many areas one can speculate about in the current scenario!

I suspect that we are just coming to the end of act 1, scene 2, in a 6 act opera!

As the saying goes: It ain't over until the fat lady sings!

BTW - Operas usually have tragic endings.
04-10-2007, 08:14 AM   #11
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Richard,

I'm sure you know, as I do, that the tip of the proverbial Pentax iceberg with respect to production capabilities that Pentax has is only beginning to ramp up. I'm most confident that we will see an all too new lens timeline with an unbelievable array of advanced lenses being delivered much sooner, rather than later. Possibly with lenses we havn't even heard of being available before years end.

There are countless options on the table here. Clearly, no one has the crystal ball that will see where Pentax goes.

But, why the insurrection with the Pentax Board. 6 of 8 say screw Hoya. Is it simply to drive the tender offer up? Possibly. Is it because the recent interest in Pentax equipment has made the future look financially better? Certainly possible.

It may well be that Pentax will continue in some capacity, or be victimized by a hostile takeover. But, the Pentax camera division is most confident of their future and any melding of the company could see what is in the pipeline destroyed or delayed. If that happens the Pentax name will simply fade into oblivion as a possible outcome.

Personally, I think Pentax can go it alone. Within the next few months you are going to see them kick in the door of the digital DSLR market that may well have new pros entering the market as Pentax Pros and perhaps some jumping ship from Canon and Nikon. Pentax will be a very competative player and very, very soon at that. They are probably better off as Pentax, rather than Hoya-Pentax.

The only cavaet being...how will Hoya retaliate. A lot of money goes into merger talks and I am sure that Hoya will extract their pound of flesh if this falls through.

One final thought. This may simply be a ploy to drive up Pentax stock values prior to merging. Already Pentax shares exceed the tender offer by Hoya. Perhaps institutional share holders are trying to get blood out of a stone and really don't care about Pentax's near tactical and strategic planning. The buck comes first for these guys.

Stephen

Last edited by SCGushue; 04-10-2007 at 10:09 AM. Reason: text
04-10-2007, 11:32 AM   #12
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Here is my take on all of this. First of all let me state that my crystal ball has severe front/back/side focusing problems and has been invaded by cerebral fungus besides. All that aside, I'll start out by quoting my sister who is a high level securities analyst specializing in Pacific Rim countries. When the initial Hoya merger was announced she said it was good news for Pentax but that Hoya was getting "an incredible bargin". I think there was some bigtime Pentax resentment over the intial stock swap price. Not to mention that Urano presented them with a fait accompli back in December. It seems that the other board members weren't even consulted on the deal. Bad Urano! Bad! Add to all of that the Hoya CEO's insensative remarks in Jan about dumping the imaging division if it wasn't as profitable as Hoya wanted. Hence the rebellion on the 4th of this month when they rejected the stock swap. So Hoya comes back with a tender offer instead and Pentax stock jumps. The other board members are a united front, they force out Urano and the other guy(forget his name) I think more as a show of unity than anything else they reject Hoya's tender offer. Notice that Watanuki, the new CEO, has said that a future deal with Hoya is not ruled out. OK this is where it sits now.
I pretty much agree with Richard. This ain't even begun to be over yet. AFAIK Samsung cannot by law buy Pentax. Of course they can set up dummy Japanese corps to do the same thing, but I doubt they'll go to the trouble. There is still a lot of bad blood between the two courntries because of WWII. This isn't a Sony/Minolta scenario. I personally think Pentax is looking for the RIGHT buyer at the RIGHT price because they need the R&D monies. Pentax as a loner simply doesn't have the deep pockets needed to develop new tech, they need a partner. I'm still hoping it will be Hoya, but with some guarantees about the imaging division. Seiko-Epson is another possibility, I think they can afford Pentax, but I doubt that Fuji can, and I also think that a Fuji/Pentax merger would be a mistake as they are direct competitors. Complementary mergers always work better than competitive ones. In any event I think that whoever buys Pentax will keep the name, it has very good recognition.

NaCl(if any of this comes about I'll be totally amazed)H2O
04-10-2007, 12:23 PM   #13
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GREAT analogy!!

QuoteOriginally posted by Richard Day Quote
Apparently only a Japanese company can buy amother Japanese company, may be a challenge for some (Samsung?).

Seiko Epson would be another possibility, they are in the imaging business and Seiko Optical distribute Pentax spectacles throughout Europe and compete with Hoya spectacle lenses!

There are so many areas one can speculate about in the current scenario!

I suspect that we are just coming to the end of act 1, scene 2, in a 6 act opera!

As the saying goes: It ain't over until the fat lady sings!

BTW - Operas usually have tragic endings.
Richard, you are so right! The fat lady isn't even on stag yet. Yes most operas do have tragic endings but I can't think of any that are also a mystery. Act 1, scene 2 is a little early for the first death (CEO) isn't it?

Regards,

Last edited by regken; 04-11-2007 at 03:42 AM.
04-11-2007, 01:20 AM   #14
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This new development, viewed neither negative nor positive by me, has put a slight dampener on my future Pentax plans. Of course, I'm NOT jumping ship anytime soon only because of this news, but it does make my brain go again.

The sign I'm personally looking for, as far as faith in Pentax and it's life in the near future goes, is the 645D. If they actually release this beast, it's a sign that Pentax has got the vitamins to stay alive on it's own, if not, they're toast. Of course, it could also be viewed as a "last ditch effort", but that's not how I'm going to see it; if I know Pentax, they don't release something unless they mean it and not just as a media or PR stunt, either.

As Ben put it in another thread... tools of the trade, nothing more, nothing less.

Cheers,
-Asad
04-11-2007, 08:01 AM   #15
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Next Meeting with Pentax

QuoteOriginally posted by Asad_Masede Quote
This new development, viewed neither negative nor positive by me, has put a slight dampener on my future Pentax plans. Of course, I'm NOT jumping ship anytime soon only because of this news, but it does make my brain go again.

The sign I'm personally looking for, as far as faith in Pentax and it's life in the near future goes, is the 645D. If they actually release this beast, it's a sign that Pentax has got the vitamins to stay alive on it's own, if not, they're toast. Of course, it could also be viewed as a "last ditch effort", but that's not how I'm going to see it; if I know Pentax, they don't release something unless they mean it and not just as a media or PR stunt, either.

As Ben put it in another thread... tools of the trade, nothing more, nothing less.

Cheers,
-Asad
I received a call yesterday from my "Guy" at Pentax asking me to attend a meeting with some of the other executives there to discuss the "Salons des Photos" in Paris October 3-7, 2007. What we are planing to do etc. This issue may come out if I bring up the subject and do some diplomatic prying. I just might do so only if I feel the atmosphere feels right. Pentax France may still be out of the loop or perhaps they have more info that they may share with me. I doubt they will, if it might be interpreted as negative for their image, given that they have just taken me on board.

Ben
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