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View Poll Results: Will Pentax Succeed with the New K-7 and Strategy?
Yes 19592.86%
No 157.14%
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05-13-2009, 09:07 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
[sigh] did you read my whole post or just the last sentence? I already gave you my estimate of 5D II and D700 sales in the sentence before! :ugh:
Basically, only the 5D II and D700 are sold in any decent number. And I am giving you an estimate of the rest.
you have missed 5D (not 5DII)

05-13-2009, 09:20 AM   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by deejjjaaaa Quote
you have missed 5D (not 5DII)
5D has already been discontinued in Japan. Those figures are from April 2009 monthly sales (last month). And in that month, 5D was at #111 and $128, probably just from remaining clearance stock; i.e. it is selling in insignificant numbers.
05-13-2009, 09:42 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
In the month of April in Japan, Canon 5D II occupies #19 and #20 (different configurations). So an approximate total of about 2% market share. D700 was at #36 and #46 - a total of maybe at around 1%. And the A900 is way down at #77. Others such as 1D III, D3, D3x are all outside the top 70. So I would say, not counting 5D and D700, the total of all other FF combined would be much less than 1%.
So, 5Dii (2%) + D700 (1%) + Rest (1%) = 4%.
Pentax: ~5%.

So you say, the market volume for FF and for Pentax are roughly the same size.

I agree that 4% of 5% (0.2%) may be far too small a segment for Pentax.

On the other hand, 0.2% of maybe 12 million SLR units = 24,000 units worldwide of a Pentax FF. How many 645D exactly did Pentax say they expect shipping

So, the question is: Is a $50million market too small for Pentax to address?
05-13-2009, 09:48 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
So, the question is: Is a $50million market too small for Pentax to address?
And what percentage of that market could Pentax hope to capture with almost no lenses currently available for that market segment?

05-13-2009, 10:01 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
And what percentage of that market could Pentax hope to capture with almost no lenses currently available for that market segment?
I only estimated the size of the available market for Pentax (5% of $1bn/y FF today).

I did not say what they would have to do to conquer it. Not my business.

But I may remind you that they conquered 5% of the APS-C market with initally only 3 lenses or so for that segment (the 16-45, basically). The more Pentax invests, the bigger will be their share of it. If they invest nothing, their share will be zero. What you noticed correctly.
05-13-2009, 10:14 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
5D has already been discontinued in Japan. Those figures are from April 2009 monthly sales (last month). And in that month, 5D was at #111 and $128, probably just from remaining clearance stock; i.e. it is selling in insignificant numbers.
but the situation w/ 5D in USA is different - it is available and it is the cheapest FF body (<= USD $2K)... so you can't discount it
05-13-2009, 10:16 AM   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
But I may remind you that they conquered 5% of the APS-C market with initally only 3 lenses or so for that segment (the 16-45, basically).
there was a time when 16-45 was a Pentax kit for *istD
05-13-2009, 10:18 AM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
And what percentage of that market could Pentax hope to capture with almost no lenses currently available for that market segment?
Pentax FF is aimed at the market where people (existing Pentax users) already have lenses to use on it... so bodies will be selling even if Pentax will not offer a FF kit... I am not saying that this is good and way to go - but there enough people who will buy FF body only...

05-13-2009, 10:20 AM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
So, 5Dii (2%) + D700 (1%) + Rest (1%) = 4%.
Pentax: ~5%.

So you say, the market volume for FF and for Pentax are roughly the same size.

I agree that 4% of 5% (0.2%) may be far too small a segment for Pentax.

On the other hand, 0.2% of maybe 12 million SLR units = 24,000 units worldwide of a Pentax FF. How many 645D exactly did Pentax say they expect shipping

So, the question is: Is a $50million market too small for Pentax to address?
If they can only capture 5% of a 95% market odds are not in their favor of capturing even a fraction of 1% of a 5% market....Economy of scale is not in their favor, nor profit margins, nor customer perception.. Get a 645 out and accepted and a FF market will open up.. Only choice based on current acceptance of Pentax brand...
Pentax brand awareness will probably not benefit from a "me too" FF since it hasn't worked even in APS..
doing FF now is still putting the cart before the horse. People (in general) trust C and N and Sony (oddly enough) enough to spend big bucks (yes they are still a large luxury purchase to most) on a FF from them.
K10D won numerous awards and accolades and it was still not enough to push Pentax brand awareness over the edge to respectability.
05-13-2009, 10:26 AM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by deejjjaaaa Quote
Pentax FF is aimed at the market where people (existing Pentax users) already have lenses to use on it... so bodies will be selling even if Pentax will not offer a FF kit... I am not saying that this is good and way to go - but there enough people who will buy FF body only...
Pentax needs NEW people............... and to sell NEW lenses....
Canon dumped there entire lens line, took some risks and has been top dog ever since.
05-13-2009, 10:46 AM   #161
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QuoteOriginally posted by David Quote
Yes to all of the above. I treasured the results of my Mamiya 6x7 Universal Rangefinder and RB67 gear. I miss the black and white and IR darkroom results, not to mention 6x7 transparencies. However, time and technology move on and I couldn't imagine returning to darkroom days. In any case film, chemistry and paper are now toooooo expensive and digital MF financially out of the question.When I think about it, I'm happy to be away from the darkroom days too. I have always worried about the cumulative affect of all those darkroom chemicals and I don't miss it. Digital has been great...I can merrily click away, check out my photos immediately on the LCD screen, or better yet a little later on the computer screen and decide what goes, what stays, what I did wrong and right...with some immediacy.

I find my K20D can produce similar results at least up to 20" prints.Given that most of my print sizes are 8 X 10...with the odd one going to 11 X 14 and the detail and clarity of the print using the K10D and the Pentax lenses is extremely high IMO...I can't see going beyond my K10D or a K20D. This equipment is capable of brilliant photos and I rarely use RAW, usually JPEG 10. I'm very happy and I like to think that I do have a bit of a discerning eye, being used to medium format and Leitz lens with my Leica RF.

I am one of the Pentax FF pundits but must admit my fervor is starting to weaken. I have been in a position to compare my results with CanNik FF gear and can't see any major differences in the results. I don't shoot sport or wildlife I don't shoot sports, but I do shoot wildlife and as you say I also don't see a huge difference between FF Canikon and my K10D. The cost difference ...FF body, new lenses...would not make a lot of sense to me, given what my K10D and KM provide.and rarely get into extreme low light situations, ie I don't have a noise issue, although AF can be a pain in the butt. My lens kit now covers all reasonable focal lengths for both C class and FF sensors.An added appeal of staying with Pentax was the backward compatibility of the lenses. I have quite a few M42 screw mount and K bayonet series...but I find that I generally use my new Pentax lenses...either the 16-45, 18-55, the 50 f1.4 or the 55-300. .They are great...only wish they had more metal than plastic..but on the other hand I carry my stuff around and as I'm older...less weight is a major consideration and the new style, plastic lenses provide that advantage.

So maybe I need to get over the "I Want It" problem and examine what benefit FF will give me.I know what you mean...my wife asked me now that I have all this digital camera equipment...that should pretty well cover everything shouldn't it...I hastily changed the subject, for as those immersed in photography...it never is 'enough'....

I had better sign off before I really start to ramble.

Take care.

David
Have a good one...Les
05-13-2009, 11:11 AM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Pentax needs NEW people............... and to sell NEW lenses....
Canon dumped there entire lens line, took some risks and has been top dog ever since.


It's not a valid argument. How many lens do you expect Pentax to release alone side 645D?

Canon lost alot of customer when it switched to EOS mount. It will lose alot of customer still when it release a mid range FF body at the 50D price and people realize they can't mount their EF-S lenses on it. But its OK though, Canon low end gears are very price competitve. They can stand a few loses.
05-13-2009, 11:39 AM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Pentax needs NEW people............... and to sell NEW lenses....
sure, but that does not mean that you need to have 20 new lenses exactly at the exact moment of FF body release...
05-13-2009, 11:40 AM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Economy of scale is not in their favor, nor profit margins, nor customer perception.
how's that different from the moment when *istD was released ?
05-13-2009, 12:12 PM   #165
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Yeah, Canon Dumped FD BUT...

Eos System started in 1987

Canon made certain FD lenses thru 1994

In 1990-1994 they made a 1.26x FD lens to Eos mount converter & it retailed for $250/ wholesaled $125. This allowed eos camera owners to adapt all of canon's white paint lenses and a few others 200mm and above. Like 14 lenses were adaptable to eos.

My Canon dealer sheets from Christmas 1999 included their last offers of FD equiptment, lenses, cameras, assessories. B&H sold remainder FD lenses and stuff thru 2003 brand new with warranty.

So YES Canon dumped FD, however it didn't happen in a day, or a year or 5 years. I figure you take 1987 eos launch thru 1994 last FD lens made thru 1999 FD lenses still orderable and whats that???

It took canon from 1987 to 1999 to "dump" their FD mount:

12 years.

My F-1N film camera was made in 1994. Canon's unique I think in date code stamping cameras lenses and some assessories. its handy, I wish everyone did this.

Canon FD shooters back then went to Nikon. Then Nikon shooters went to eos for their fast autofocus supertele's & then even later , full frame dslrs. Now Eos owners go to Nikon for D700 and lenses like 14-24 2.8 and 24-70 2.8.

back & forth,... for this reason & that.

Me? I say own both Canon and Nikon ;^) & while you're at it own pentax too!

Wheres that put pentax? Have they gained from Canon and Nikon owners jumping ship or do they loose more market share with pentaxians jumping ship that may never return? '

Back in screw mount days, like late 1960's wasn't PENTAX #1 ???

Isn't that why spotmatics were the prop of choice in 1960's movies:

Pentax meant quality, it was a recognized ICON.

I think when K Mount hit in late 1976 they already lost #1 global sales position. Screw mounts are cool but whats faster to mount and dismount ???

A bayonet mount !!!

Pentax was slow to see fast mount & dismount lenses were costing them customers.






QuoteOriginally posted by jeffkrol Quote
Pentax needs NEW people............... and to sell NEW lenses....
Canon dumped there entire lens line, took some risks and has been top dog ever since.

Last edited by Samsungian; 05-13-2009 at 12:19 PM.
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