[RioRico]

It's easy to prognosticate with generalities. It's easy to predict major political blunders and assassinations (maybe disguised as suicides), corporate failures and corrupt practices, celebrity scandals (sex, drugs, whatever), economic collapses, etc. Keep at it long enough and eventually you may be right (although Xians have forecast The End Of The World for a long long time, fruitlessly). Just be vague about exactly who, what, where, when. Or claim that your prediction was right, but that nobody noticed. (A major US insurer was taken over by a German giant about an hour before Saddam invaded Kuwait, so nobody noticed.)

I've got to get into this. I PREDICT: Camera makers will announce new bodies and lenses! I PREDICT: A camera maker will be taken over! I PREDICT: A new camera line with built-in wireless will spread a vicious virus to all nearby Bluetooth devices! I PREDICT: Nobody will watch my podcasts! I PREDICT: Photon depletion will reach record levels! If I'm wrong, sue me.

[reeftool]

More doom and gloom crap. Sure, its possible a camera company could close up. If this recesssion drags on its possible that ALL the camera companys could go under. If a large enough percentage of us decide to hold on to the gear we now have for another year or so to wait until the times get a little better that could be all she wrote for all of them. A trip to the camera store will mean Holgas at the Dollar General and Ben will be hosting the Holga Forum.

[KungPOW]

This article really has me worried. So I went to the only souce one should look at in a situation like this.

Nostradamus!

Upon the King of the stump speaking of wars,
The United Isle will hold him in contempt:
For several good years one gnawing and pillaging,
Through tyranny in the isle esteem changing.

Yup, looks like Sony is going down. Wow. Thats a load of my mind!

[innershell]

This article really has me worried. So I went to the only souce one should look at in a situation like this.

Nostradamus!

Upon the King of the stump speaking of wars,
The United Isle will hold him in contempt:
For several good years one gnawing and pillaging,
Through tyranny in the isle esteem changing.

Yup, looks like Sony is going down. Wow. Thats a load of my mind!

thank you! thank you! thank you! I can rest now.

[Stefan Carey]

Obviously it's not Hoya or Pentax.

SNE JAPAN DIGITAL CAMERA FIRMS SHOW MIXED PICTURE OF FY09 SHIPMENTS (from 19.05.09)

"But with demand for digital single-lens reflex cameras forecast to remain solid, Hoya Corp. (TSE:7741) sees shipments of its Pentax brand digital SLR cameras soaring 48 per cent to 340,000 units."


I have to wonder about "news" items that prompted this intriguing post. What is their real purpose? Why do they write them? Where is the editorial integrity? The basic standards of reportage? I am not looking forward to an era of online journalism only where anything goes, and the accountability is less than acceptable. People make decisions on whether to invest in a brand based on these speculative pieces of writing. Nuff said.

[janneman]

Obviously it's not Hoya or Pentax.

SNE JAPAN DIGITAL CAMERA FIRMS SHOW MIXED PICTURE OF FY09 SHIPMENTS (from 19.05.09)

"But with demand for digital single-lens reflex cameras forecast to remain solid, Hoya Corp. (TSE:7741) sees shipments of its Pentax brand digital SLR cameras soaring 48 per cent to 340,000 units."

If they have shipped 48% more but not sold any of them... The one thing moe expensive than storing surplus cameras is shipping and storing them in thrd party warehouses.....


Pentax is DOOOOOOOOMED

[Stefan Carey]

Your post is so childish it does not warrant a reply. Maybe schmaybe.

---

Last edited by Stefan Carey; 05-27-2009 at 05:28 AM. Reason: typo

[janneman]

Your post is so childish it does warrant a reply.

I am DOOOOMED

[Stefan Carey]

Es macht nichts.

[Lowell Goudge]

completely hypothetical (and i can't see it happening, ever), but think of the Karma if, like in the car industry, the big ones did die

"i predict a small camera company to die because canon and nikon are too big"
3 months later: Canon and nikon pulling up stumps, selling everything to Hoya for $1

I agree, if we use the car industry as an example, it was the big companies that died.

Also we need to note that Chrysler (and American motors which they bought from Renault) have been dying for years. The failed merger/buyout by daimler is another example, and note this is the second bail out of Chrysler the first was in the early 1980's, let's not forget that!

Also, it was well known almost 20 years ago that GM would ultimately fail due to the burden of the pension plan and health care benefits.

They and the unions have only themselves to blaim for not addressing the situation long ago. Some companies recoginzed over 50 years ago that a 100% company funded pention was not the way to go and got out of it, so in that respect the auto companies and auto unions are 50 years behind the times.

the bottom line is that while the auto industry might make for some interesting comparisons, they brought this on themselves.

[er1kksen]

If they have shipped 48% more but not sold any of them... The one thing moe expensive than storing surplus cameras is shipping and storing them in thrd party warehouses.....


Pentax is DOOOOOOOOMED

Jeez, they're doomed AGAIN? I could have sworn they were doomed just a couple weeks ago, and a few times before that, too... you'd really think they'd be gone by now, given how often they've been doomed... I guess it's just one of those things.

[jfsavage]

It's something to consider when buying into a system. I could see a world in which Samsung buys Pentax, which could be good for both of them.

I'm interested in someone doing a 'game changing' camera - something so different that it changes the market. The K-7 is not that camera. The current crop of EVF cameras are the shape of thing to some, but I suspect technology needs a few years.

My current bet is that open source firmware will be the next important move. Then the camera body will be the platform on which you deploy the type of usability that suits your shooting, and allows the camera to continue to evolve after initial development. It will be a brave company that does it, and it may require some despiration, but I believe it is inevitable.

[Rondec]

I don't think that Pentax can be sold. I suppose the name could be sold to Samsung, but as of present, it's assets, etc are a part of the Hoya corporation and could not be easily extracated. Hoya in the beginning seemed to want Pentax for its medical technology business and certainly it isn't going to sell the name as long as that part of the business keeps operating at a profit.

As far as gloom and doom, any business can be run into the ground. Look at Enron, AIG, Chrysler, and GM. Sure, bigger companies can tolerate billion dollar losses for awhile, but eventually they will fold up if they keep doing that. The reality is that smaller, tighter companies tend to do better in recessions, because their fixed costs of business are lower. Canon and Nikon have a certain cost of existence, whether or not they sell a single lens.

[nanok]

I agree, if we use the car industry as an example, it was the big companies that died.

Also we need to note that Chrysler (and American motors which they bought from Renault) have been dying for years. The failed merger/buyout by daimler is another example, and note this is the second bail out of Chrysler the first was in the early 1980's, let's not forget that!

Also, it was well known almost 20 years ago that GM would ultimately fail due to the burden of the pension plan and health care benefits.

They and the unions have only themselves to blaim for not addressing the situation long ago. Some companies recoginzed over 50 years ago that a 100% company funded pention was not the way to go and got out of it, so in that respect the auto companies and auto unions are 50 years behind the times.

the bottom line is that while the auto industry might make for some interesting comparisons, they brought this on themselves.

this is very interesting, can you substantiate that/explain further?

what i don't understand is to what extent wages payed (including social security contribution and so on) can affect an efficient (profitable) company? a general rule of thumb is that every employee (on average ofcourse) will produce about 10x as much for his employer than what he is payed, this means that 10% more or less (or even 100%) in wages will make little difference to the health of the company, _all else being equal_, and keep in mind all else is not equal in general: if you treat your employees better, they won't want to leave, they will be happier and work harder, you will lose less money (less attrition, smaller costs for training and so on), and perhaps even become more efficient due to your employees being loyal. and round and round it goes (of course, it's not as simple, but if done right, it can work that way). however, if you are unable, unwilling, or simply not motivated to put competitive products on the market, which people will _buy_, which people can use -- and not find unreliable, built terribly, or whatever --, you might have a bit of a problem surviving.

at first glance, you are right: they did it to themselves, but in a much more direct way, they ignored their competition, and their customers, and they got bitten from both sides. the fact that they did it before (and survived to do it again, on "your" money, as it happens) is, frankly, sickening. am i missing something? :/

[RioRico]

Canon and Nikon have a certain cost of existence, whether or not they sell a single lens.

Canon and Nikon have camera divisions that are very small portions of much much larger corporate structures. Depending on the whims of their respective bean-counters, the camera divisions can easily be kept alive.

at first glance, you are right: they did it to themselves, but in a much more direct way, they ignored their competition, and their customers, and they got bitten from both sides. the fact that they did it before (and survived to do it again, on "your" money, as it happens) is, frankly, sickening. am i missing something? :/

US automakers' woes are IMHO entirely of their own doing. Can't blame unions, can't blame govt regulations, can't blame sneaky competitors. They chose to maintain their parasitic relationships with dealers and legislators; they chose to sh!tcan emerging technologies; they chose to ignore competition, demand, economics, changing zeitgeists, ie the real world. Absent govt intrusion, GM and Chrysler would likely have Chinese and Indian owners now.

But this has little to do with photography, whose industry operates on a whole different scale. Markets are quite fluid, trends change quickly. Yes, there's increasing demand for SLRs, but that's always been dwarfed by the (film or digital) PNS trade. Olympus had pro gear with their OM line, but they tossed that over after the XA made it big (and made Oly quite rich). I suspect that Optio's make Pentax/Hoya a lot more money than the SLRs. IMHO the 'major' brands produce upscale cams primarily for name recognition, to drive sales of cheaper stuff. Rather like GM pushing Corvettes in order to sell Chevettes, eh?

Situations vary around the world. Buick is a big name in China, a marque of quality - it's no surprise that GM's profits are now mostly from Asian sales. Film cameras are (or were, last time I was there) very very big in Guatemala and other parts of Central America, because prohibitive duties ("China taxes") kept digital cams priced off the market. Will rampant hipsterism and Holgamania keep 120 film in production much longer? What will be the next orphan technology?