[sezme]

Useless article - an overall atmosphere of FUD with a couple very large logical fallacies:

1) First he argues that Canon and Nikon are too big to fail so it must be a smaller company; then he supports his article by mentioning car companies. Newsflash: Two of the Big Three filed for bankruptcy. So no, there's no such thing as a company that's 'too big to fail'. There's no reason why if one camera manufacturer 'had to' fail, it couldn't be Canon or Nikon.

2) The last two sentences: "But there’s no doubt at least one will fail. It’s unavoidable."
These are completely unsubstantiated conclusions. Nowhere in the article has he explained why such an outcome is inevitable, other than by stating that times are tough and the (American) auto industry isn't doing so well.

My conclusion: he's just trying to look smart/connected/prescient by vaguely implying some inside knowledge without actually having any. I also think that he's basically just voicing his desire that a camera company other than Nikon or Canon will fail. Yawn.

[dafiryde]

Useless article - an overall atmosphere of FUD with a couple very large logical fallacies:

1) First he argues that Canon and Nikon are too big to fail so it must be a smaller company; then he supports his article by mentioning car companies. Newsflash: Two of the Big Three filed for bankruptcy. So no, there's no such thing as a company that's 'too big to fail'. There's no reason why if one camera manufacturer 'had to' fail, it couldn't be Canon or Nikon.

2) The last two sentences: "But there’s no doubt at least one will fail. It’s unavoidable."
These are completely unsubstantiated conclusions. Nowhere in the article has he explained why such an outcome is inevitable, other than by stating that times are tough and the (American) auto industry isn't doing so well.

My conclusion: he's just trying to look smart/connected/prescient by vaguely implying some inside knowledge without actually having any. I also think that he's basically just voicing his desire that a camera company other than Nikon or Canon will fail. Yawn.

after reading his write up , you could feel his rush of pleasure, wanting and waiting for someone to fail.
GET THAT GUY SOME PROZAC

Dave

[nanok]

i have no idea if he's an imbecile, but he talks like one, and he seems to think like one so... hm, there's your answer right there. there is a name for what he is doing : FUD, fear uncertainty and doubt. people who start such thing are generally not extremely bright, and make very weak and generally worthless arguments, he is no exception.

simply ignore him, he's not even stupid enough to be funny, just an ordinary idiot with nothing to say. sorry.

[dafiryde]

i have no idea if he's an imbecile, but he talks like one, and he seems to think like one so... hm, there's your answer right there. there is a name for what he is doing : FUD, fear uncertainty and doubt. people who start such thing are generally not extremely bright, and make very weak and generally worthless arguments, he is no exception.

simply ignore him, he's not even stupid enough to be funny, just an ordinary idiot with nothing to say. sorry.

do you think there is a way we can send this whole post to him, to let him know how we feel

Dave

[nanok]

i don't think it's worth the trouble. for such people, any noise is good noise. just ignore him and carry on doing something worthwile instead.

[stanleyk]

This is a pretty sketchy article and clearly a promo for Cannon and Nikon.

If he's right (and there's no guarantee of that, look at most track record of most US business analysts over the last few years), I don't think it will be Pentax. To use the car company example he's fond of, one of the main problems of the US car industry was they all essentially made the same car- trucks and SUV's. They have no Prius or Insight or cheap reliable cars like Hyundai and Kia. Just giant gas guzzling boxes on wheels.

And as far as his Chrysler analogy. Wow. This isn't exaclty the first time they've needed to be bailed out. As for the auto industry as a whole, a lot people saw the writing on the wall for the big three. When your only product is a truck or an enclosed truck, you better hope that people keep wanting or needing trucks. I really just don't see that comparing cars and camera companies is valid.

But if any camera product (not company) will be in trouble, it will be the highest price point pro/sumer DSLR. The people that could afford that but not the $5000 dollar model won't have the credit they used the last few years to purchase one. The K7 appears to have a great price point. Plus Pentax lenses (the zooms) are very competively priced. How much do Nikons cost? I work with a couple people who have Nikons. Both of them have 2 camera lenses.

If the recession contintues the $2500 pro/sumer body is in trouble, not the $1500 one. Most people who buy the $2500 one can't really tell the difference/could get exactly what they need from the $1500 one. The $2500 just seemed like status when you could keep getting your credit line extended and your mortgage refinanced.

If the K7 is a good camera, Pentax will be fine. Pentax just needs 3 or 4 bodies (two point and shoots and two DSLR's) and to continue making lenses no other company makes along with the assorted zooms that most people want. However, the real attraction of Pentax to photographers will be the little DA's and Limiteds + the backwards compatiblity. Are they going to sell as many cameras as Nikon or Cannon. Absolutely not. I'm not sure that's the goal anyway.

And there's no way Leica is going under. The obviously don't depend on mountains of sales. I would also guess that the bulk of their customers don't even know there's a recession going on. That's like saying BMW or Mercedes will be going under.

[Ratmagiclady]

My understanding is that Leica's just going back to being a small premium brand, as far as cameras are concerned, so they should be all right for the time being. They can still have a certain amount of the up-market.

Olympus's SLR line seems to have always been a bit troubled: betting on the four-thirds format just didn't seem to pan out: the size benefits didn't pan out, bigger sensors became easily-competitive on price, and the smaller lenses just weren't forthcoming. . It does sound like they're doing the logical: maybe kind of coasting on the real SLRs and coming out with a new Pen F type system. I hope they do OK.

[philbaum]

Olympus's SLR line seems to have always been a bit troubled: betting on the four-thirds format just didn't seem to pan out: the size benefits didn't pan out, bigger sensors became easily-competitive on price, and the smaller lenses just weren't forthcoming. . It does sound like they're doing the logical: maybe kind of coasting on the real SLRs and coming out with a new Pen F type system. I hope they do OK.

Agreed. When i looked for an SLR 2 years ago, i was very interested in Oly's offerings, finally went with Pentax because of the better viewfinder and the lack of any third party lenses for Oly's cameras. I had the feeling that without the third party involvement, there was less vitality in the brand. I remember the entusiasm in the Pentax community over the micro-4/3's announcements and Samsung's more recent announcement.

Oddly, Pentax seems to have responded to the interest in the micro 4/3's enthusiasm by bringing out a smaller more capable K7 DSLR, while Olympus announced their intent in August 2008, delivery sched for July 2009, but there seems to be a strange silence on the Oly front regards this camera-but thats just my opinion.

I hope Oly makes it as well. Actually, corporate bankruptcies are not necessarily the end of the companies they way they used to be, seems to allow them to quit their debt and undertake some new direction.

[Ratmagiclady]

Agreed. When i looked for an SLR 2 years ago, i was very interested in Oly's offerings, finally went with Pentax because of the better viewfinder and the lack of any third party lenses for Oly's cameras. I had the feeling that without the third party involvement, there was less vitality in the brand. I remember the entusiasm in the Pentax community over the micro-4/3's announcements and Samsung's more recent announcement.

Oddly, Pentax seems to have responded to the interest in the micro 4/3's enthusiasm by bringing out a smaller more capable K7 DSLR, while Olympus announced their intent in August 2008, delivery sched for July 2009, but there seems to be a strange silence on the Oly front regards this camera-but thats just my opinion.

I bet it's kind of just a matter of time. EVIL type cameras are something that more time can help: the closer to ready-for-prime-time the EVFs are, the more likely they'll have a phenomenon on their hands. Sort of thing that a little more consumer confidence and will help, too, not, I think, a primary system for anyone.

I was looking at Olympus for a while, too, though not necessarily to stay unless something changed. There was a point where they were just *dumping* two-lens E-500 kits on the market, ...I mean, really cheap, and for me, who was using a Lumix bridge camera for a companion to my film stuff, it would have been a real upgrade just for the sake of reliably firing more or less when I pulled the trigger. (And for cheapies, I thought they felt OK. )

It never came together, though. By the time I'd gotten to saving for that, they were gone, and those kit lenses I expected to flood the used market never actually got any kind of cheap.

The trouble with the Olympus DSLRs is that while there are some droolably-excellent lenses at the top end, they aren't really technically-competing where it comes to the price range, you kind of need to drop a Nikon-like chunk all at once on an E-3 and glass to really have anything.

[ryan s]

Oddly, Pentax seems to have responded to the interest in the micro 4/3's enthusiasm by bringing out a smaller more capable K7 DSLR, while Olympus announced their intent in August 2008, delivery sched for July 2009, but there seems to be a strange silence on the Oly front regards this camera-but thats just my opinion.

I hope Oly makes it as well. Actually, corporate bankruptcies are not necessarily the end of the companies they way they used to be, seems to allow them to quit their debt and undertake some new direction.

I agree with this. I didn't bother reading the blog article (seems I didn't miss anything...thanks all, for saving me a click and some time ) but my opinion is that Oly won't be the next one to go under. Panasonic wouldn't let them because of the m4/3 concept. Oh...that and Oly is a legendary name.

Sony wouldn't "go under" (and how could they?)...BUT...I think they might be the next ones to step out of the camera game. When...don't know. Just my opinion.

[janneman]

Oddly, Pentax seems to have responded to the interest in the micro 4/3's enthusiasm by bringing out a smaller more capable K7 DSLR, while Olympus announced their intent in August 2008, delivery sched for July 2009, but there seems to be a strange silence on the Oly front regards this camera-but thats just my opinion.

Until now Oly and Pentax were the only ones with more or less affordable sealed dslr's. But Oly thought the 4/3 system allowed for smaller dslr's. True, the have a few but only the E1- and E3 are sealed. So by affordable I mean comepared to Nikon and Canon offerings. Now Pentax does not have a very cheap sealed camera but with the coming of two sealed kit lenes, I think a true entry level (like KM-D) sealed camera is not far off. And it is rather small as well.
Oly is pulling it's hair out for not sealing the E-30 now I think.

My guess is that they are now truly forced into micro 4/3 to stay interesting .

[kevinschoenmakers]

Even if a 'well known camera company' failed, it would be highly profitable for someone to buy it all up and start over. Think about how many people own lenses and flashes compatible with -say- a Pentax body. Anyone who makes the next Pentax-compatible body after Pentax died has a HUGE customer base to begin with, compared to starting up something new. Now, that is just 'if'. Because it won't. Owned by the largest optics company, and in business with the biggest electronics company, Pentax will last.

[Blue]

Even if a 'well known camera company' failed, it would be highly profitable for someone to buy it all up and start over. Think about how many people own lenses and flashes compatible with -say- a Pentax body. Anyone who makes the next Pentax-compatible body after Pentax died has a HUGE customer base to begin with, compared to starting up something new. Now, that is just 'if'. Because it won't. Owned by the largest optics company, and in business with the biggest electronics company, Pentax will last.

It certainly wouldn't be the first time it has happened. When Minolta closed their camera plant, Sony bought it and hired a bunch of the out of work Minolta people and they instantly had the Alpha line and into the dslr 35mm market.

[er1kksen]

The trouble with the Olympus DSLRs is that while there are some droolably-excellent lenses at the top end, they aren't really technically-competing where it comes to the price range, you kind of need to drop a Nikon-like chunk all at once on an E-3 and glass to really have anything.

I don't know about that, the Olympus kit lenses are really excellent (the 14-42 probably about as good as the DA 18-55 II and the 40-150 probably actually a bit better than the 50-200 for sharpness) and much smaller, and the recently released E-620 is quite a step up for the entry level bodies (new AF, viewfinder, etc.). Aside from the weathersealing, I'd say the Olympus entry level is quite competitive with Pentax's entry level.

Of course, whether or not you believe in the advantages of the 4/3 system (it really pans out to smaller lenses/smaller telecentric lenses, which may be similar in size to non-telecentric lenses for other formats but deliver better image quality) doesn't really affect whether or not the brand will go under. Fact is, they make good cameras and lenses at reasonable prices and their entry-level products often carry a good amount of consumer appeal. Sure, I'd take the K-7 and some pentax glass over the E-3 and zuiko high grade lenses any day, but that's because it fits my needs better and carries more appeal for me. The fact that I switched from Olympus to Pentax doesn't change the fact that Olympus sells more cameras worldwide.

btw, 2 years ago you couldn't find any third party lenses for Oly? There's a whole slew of them from sigma (my favorite lens on 4/3 was my sigma 30mm) and some really nice higher-end ones from panasonic/leica.

[nakey]

completely hypothetical (and i can't see it happening, ever), but think of the Karma if, like in the car industry, the big ones did die

"i predict a small camera company to die because canon and nikon are too big"
3 months later: Canon and nikon pulling up stumps, selling everything to Hoya for $1