[nostatic]

Also size matters. Many want small/light. FF has a lower limit on size and weight. The other fact is that most dSLR owners never change lenses but instead just want something "better" or want to "look like a pro." We already have:

small p&s
larger "dslr" bridge p&s (usually ultrazoom)
fixed lens APS-C
interchangeable u4/3 (no mirror)
interchangeable 4/3 (SLR)
APS (1.6 crop)
APS (1.5 crop)
APS (1.3 crop)
FF

We soon will likely have interchangeable uAPS (no mirror). Will there be uFF as well? That ends up being a lot of confusion for the consumer (bad) but a lot of choice (good) but the manufacturers have to make decisions on what they're going to chase.


P&S will always be around. People want pocketable. Beyond that, all bets are off. I doubt that many would have predicted the success of the G1 and EP1. I think there is a lot of incentive to build more better/smaller cameras. I'm still not convinced about a full shift to FF for typical consumers unless they can make the bodies and glass smaller/lighter without losing the iq. Not many want to haul a 2+lb lens around just for taking snapshots. But we already know that to get the performance out of the FF chip you need really good glass. So we're back to the no free lunch thing again.

[cyg]

P&S will always be around. People want pocketable.

Mmmh. Aren't P&S most likely to be superseded by mobile phones? At least on the lower end, which usually is where the volume is...

Regular cameras (of any type) may soon-(-ish) only be desirable for people who have a genuine interest in photography.

[nostatic]

Mmmh. Aren't P&S most likely to be superseded by mobile phones? At least on the lower end, which usually is where the volume is...

Regular cameras (of any type) may soon-(-ish) only be desirable for people who have a genuine interest in photography.

Maybe - there are arguments for convergence on that front. I will admit that it is quite useful to be able to snap a pic on my iPhone then email it to someone right then and there. But there will have to be a couple more jumps in tech until there is a highly competent convergence imaging/messaging device.

But we're still back to size. There is a lower limit for physical usability and giving easy user control over photo parameters requires some size. But for automated use, you can go small.

There also is a perception thing - if you're not using a large dSLR then you're not a "pro." That may not change any time soon either.

[GLXLR]

Maybe we can now see a decrease in lens price?

[*isteve]

Maybe we can now see a decrease in lens price?

More likely the opposite.

[Rondec]

The cost of lenses will be directly tied to the number of lenses sold. Prosumer zooms and telephotos will tend to stay down in price because there are many of them produced and sold. Unfortunately, many of the primes and higher end zooms will go up because there are fewer of them sold. Of course, the higher prices will tend to keep sales down too, so hard to say where the price increases will end.

[*isteve]

The cost of lenses will be directly tied to the number of lenses sold. Prosumer zooms and telephotos will tend to stay down in price because there are many of them produced and sold. Unfortunately, many of the primes and higher end zooms will go up because there are fewer of them sold. Of course, the higher prices will tend to keep sales down too, so hard to say where the price increases will end.

If micro APS or 4/3 rangefinder cameras make a large dent in the low and SLR market, which I suspect they will in time, then optical VF reflex cameras will contract into the higher end of their existing niche. There wont be any consumer level lenses for these cameras, only professional.

The consumer and prosumer glass will be made for and mounted on the micro cameras.

[jhaji]

Thats sad Sony sold only 21 million point and shoots last year and only tripled their dslr sales during a global recession. I wonder how 1.5 million sony dslr unit sales stacks up against total 2008 pentax dslr sales, and how 21 million P&S unit sales stacks up against 2008 pentax point and shoot unit sales?

I did... in March 09. for $317 - $100 credit on 1st statement - $100 credit for spending $1,500 on Sony Chase card within 3 months - $100 credit for spending $1,500 on Sony Chase card within next 3 months = $17

How many of these giveaways counted as sales?

BTW, I sold the A200, grabbed a *ist DL (I liked this better than the Sony A200) and then a K20D. K7 next.

[Aristophanes]

Also size matters. Many want small/light. FF has a lower limit on size and weight. The other fact is that most dSLR owners never change lenses but instead just want something "better" or want to "look like a pro." We already have:

small p&s
larger "dslr" bridge p&s (usually ultrazoom)
fixed lens APS-C
interchangeable u4/3 (no mirror)
interchangeable 4/3 (SLR)
APS (1.6 crop)
APS (1.5 crop)
APS (1.3 crop)
FF

We soon will likely have interchangeable uAPS (no mirror). Will there be uFF as well? That ends up being a lot of confusion for the consumer (bad) but a lot of choice (good) but the manufacturers have to make decisions on what they're going to chase.


P&S will always be around. People want pocketable. Beyond that, all bets are off. I doubt that many would have predicted the success of the G1 and EP1. I think there is a lot of incentive to build more better/smaller cameras. I'm still not convinced about a full shift to FF for typical consumers unless they can make the bodies and glass smaller/lighter without losing the iq. Not many want to haul a 2+lb lens around just for taking snapshots. But we already know that to get the performance out of the FF chip you need really good glass. So we're back to the no free lunch thing again.

Sub-compact cameras don't sell as well as compact because of the optical trade-offs. People still like a decent "photo", and large screen TVs and computer monitors make marginal shots look awful. It is also why the capabilities of cameraphones are limited and will always be so. It's all bout the lens.

The sensor variety is good for the market, but lousy for long-term investments in glass. We've never had so many people taking such amazing photos as with the burst of DSLR activity in the last 3 years.

That said, DSLR sensor size will be determined by:

1) Body size, ergonomics and styling. It is #1 for the vast majority.
2) Low-light capabilities. 50% of photos are apparently snapped indoors. BAck to my comment above about lousy photos on the big screen.
3) Accessories. It needs a robust flash. Look at the grief many are giving the Oly PE. The flash accessory is awful and ugly.
4) Video. Convergence, It's here. It's staying. It's a HUGE part of the future of the DSLR. Don't like it? Tough. Buy into Leica.
5) Pro needs (relatively small market, but high margins). It's the tail that wags the dog, but it does not keep the chip fab in biz. Joe Consumer does.
6) In-camera editing/organizing. This is driven by markets where a PC in every home is not there and won't be. The camera is fungible, the photo will live in the cloud.

I agree, FF for Joe Consumer is not on the horizon. The superzoom sub-DSLR category will turn into the video camera as its primary function, with some decent photo capabilities, and maybe some tricks. The audio is one reason why. But for photos, DSLR's will eat their market almost completely (sorry Casio and Fuji).

[awo425]

I was amazed at how much the 5d body creaked. Certainly not particularly "well built" and I found AF not much better than Pentax but other features seem worth the price of admission. No free lunch...

in 4 weeks I own it, 5d2 never misses a focus. I'd say it is quite different from my 2 Pentax bodies that were badly missing on average in 30% photographs.

Yes, 5d2 card door creakes, and mirror slap is very noticeable in this camera, but I somehow consider it minor things compare to what the sensor, AE and AF on this camera can offer me.

[jeffkrol]

in 4 weeks I own it, 5d2 never misses a focus. I'd say it is quite different from my 2 Pentax bodies that were badly missing on average in 30% photographs.

Yes, 5d2 card door creakes, and mirror slap is very noticeable in this camera, but I somehow consider it minor things compare to what the sensor, AE and AF on this camera can offer me.

(here we go again) At a $1000 US minimum more it better do something better.....

[gnaztee]

in 4 weeks I own it, 5d2 never misses a focus. I'd say it is quite different from my 2 Pentax bodies that were badly missing on average in 30% photographs.

Yes, 5d2 card door creakes, and mirror slap is very noticeable in this camera, but I somehow consider it minor things compare to what the sensor, AE and AF on this camera can offer me.

You're comparing to the istD and the K10D, right? My new K7 is a big improvement on my old K10D as well. Maybe a better comparison isn't a camera released more than two years before your 5d2.

[jogiba]

Thanks for posting that, I wonder how their numbers compare with competing companies. Significantly lower than last year, but so is pretty much everybody else (excepting banks and Apple).

NaCl(third quarter will be the interesting one)H2O

Nikon forecasts a record annual loss | Nikon Rumors

[thibs]

You're comparing to the istD and the K10D, right? My new K7 is a big improvement on my old K10D as well. Maybe a better comparison isn't a camera released more than two years before your 5d2.

At the same time, upgrading from those two cameras to a 5D2, an AF comparison is valid. The difference is probably huge. The stupid thing would be using that to claim Canon is better and Pentax has no competitive product, unless the comparison is don 5D2 vs K-7.

[awo425]

You're comparing to the istD and the K10D, right? My new K7 is a big improvement on my old K10D as well. Maybe a better comparison isn't a camera released more than two years before your 5d2.

I am not comparing it to k7, I just replied to the comment of user stating that he has focusing problems on 5d2.
I can not compare it to K10D, my K10D was POS in regards of build, focusing and metering, this is why it went on EBAY for half the price I paid for it.

IstDS & istD that I owned were better, although focusing in available light was hit or miss, but at least metering was predictable.
I liked K7 when i handled it in B&H, looks like Pentax improved focusing quite a bit, and camera overall is very nice, but still there's no comparison to 5D2, rent it for a week with a few L lenses, and you will understand.