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09-14-2009, 06:51 AM   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by ogl Quote
I think A850 will be USD1800-1900 close to the spring of 2010.
Yes, probably. I'm not sure what's their strategy, can they still make a profit or maybe they're just buying market share? Or, maybe, the more expensive A900 didn't sell, so they're trying again with a cheaper camera?

What I'm saying is that, if Pentax were to launch a FF DSLR now (or in the near future), it probably won't be (much) cheaper than 2000$. Since it would include a lot of newly developed technologies (unlike the A850), I think even 2000$ is hard to match.
Still, too expensive for me.

09-14-2009, 07:16 AM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I heavily doubt that this over a year old 5% figure still applies.


All I want to say is this: It may be plain stupid to ignore the fastest growing segments in the camera business (EVIL and FF) if you want a future. And I am sure Pentax isn't stupid. They just don't tell us ...
I'm with you.

I think that even Olympus can make FF camera with new line of lenses.
09-14-2009, 07:22 AM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
What I'm saying is that, if Pentax were to launch a FF DSLR now (or in the near future), it probably won't be (much) cheaper than 2000$. Since it would include a lot of newly developed technologies (unlike the A850), I think even 2000$ is hard to match.
Still, too expensive for me.
Pentax can't as they have limited development resources.

But as soon as they release 645D which IMHO binds too many valuable resources (*), they have only two routes into future left: EVIL or FF. And I am pretty sure that they already decided to go the FF route first and have already taken measures (aka lens roadmap) to secure it. I am not sure for the K-7 sucessor in 2010, but in 2011 it will be FF and not more expensive than K-7 now. Nevertheless, for 2012 and beyond, they'll need to invest into EVIL to survive.

__
(*) According to Leica's product manager Stefan Daniel (Fragestunde Forumstreffen - die Zusammenfassung - Leica User Forum), the total available market for digital MF is 10,000 units per year, with >1,000 units for S2, the rest for Hasselblad, Phase One etc. It will be difficult for Pentax to sell more 645D than this but if it is profitable for Leica, it may be for Pentax as well. It is just that it isn't strategically important and may bind resources which must be invested elsewhere. But seeing how slow the 645D project proceeds, it may be done by a handful of developers onyl and then I am fine with it
09-14-2009, 07:33 AM   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
All I want to say is this: It may be plain stupid to ignore the fastest growing segments in the camera business (EVIL and FF) if you want a future. And I am sure Pentax isn't stupid. They just don't tell us ...
Falconeye, where have you been? Haven't you been reading this forum at all? Endless posts have preached us that FF is useless if not worse and EVIL means just a toy camera. And yeah, video is just a marketing gimmick too.







09-14-2009, 07:39 AM   #65
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2009 Dslr marketshare should prove interesting

2009 Dslr marketshare should prove interesting. But we won't see the numbers till April-May 2010, if at all. I agree full frame is above 5% marketshare thesedays. Many people own one, and I own three.

I visit numerous camera brand forums & I never seen threads where people who own full frame dslrs say they're selling off their full frames for aps-c camera aquistion. Some add aps-c to their full frame, some still own aps-c after getting full frame.

Once you go full frame, it really lessens your desire to add aps-c. That said I find the Canon 7D specs compelling as I own eos lenses I use on full frame. With a 7D I could get the "telephoto effect" gain by just adding one camera. I will put my hands on a 7D ,when its available locally to testdrive to see what it does to my 300mm f4 IS with or without its 1.4x TC.

Adjusted for inflation a 1980's film camera that cost $500 new is likely today's $2,000 to $3,000 full frame dslr. So people moaning about $2,000 camera thesedays is no different than people moaning about $500 cameras 25 years ago.

A cost people fail to factor in is recovery costs. A $10,000 system is not worthless once you buy it. After a few years if you want something else you might recover $7,000 if you bought right to begin with. I've used this method to build up my gear I have onhand, both what I use and what I collect by carefully using it and cutting out the middle man when I sell it. Having a dslr inhand keeps me from ever having to pay launch price again. Since 2006 I always wait for a better price because most items "I want" are ones I do not really "Need". Now factoring poor currency trades against the yen I may buy a certain new issue lens at full msrp cause I think new gear prices will continue upward. Luckily for me, I've only seen the lens instock twice, less than an hour each time in past two months. I Put it in shopping cart twice & then it was removed by seller.

I think K-7 is a winner for Pentax, & they sell many off their own website for full price & cut out the wholesale middle man. I bet its their best revenue generator camera they've ever made. Too bad its too small for my big hands, and as I own full frame dslr already, getting any aps-c dslr is much less a "need" for me. All my K Mount glass is manual focus so it makes more sense to add a 7D instead of a K-7.


But, in reality, I may never buy another new aps-c dslr again from anyone.







QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I heavily doubt that this over a year old 5% figure still applies.

The FF segment was the fastest growing segment of all. The M9 is only 10% more expensive than the APS-H M8.2 which clearly shows that FF has become the commodity in the higher end.

With the Nikon D700 selling as good as the best selling non-Rebel Canon (Amazon rank 13, Canon 50D Amazon rank 11), and 5D2 and A850 being big hits too, I am sure that FF has far exceeded 10%., possibly approaching 20% already ...

Albeit newer, cheaper and with video, the D300s does NOT outsell the D700.

This is a VERY significant figure! Because HD video and FF are the only two features which make people upgrade in the saturated high end DSLR segment (K-7 is an exception because there was more room for improvement left, AF white balance, fps, size, ...).


I fear that in the segment above 1000$ street price, the market share of FF is approaching 50% rapidly now. And after HD video is in widespread availability, not offering neither FF nor ultra-mobility will kill the vendors.

What is a pitty as well is that the dying out FourThird splits Olympus user base into mFT and FF. Being as underdog as Pentax, Olympus users wanting true SLR would be glad to be able to find a new FF home in Pentax. If there would be the offer.


All I want to say is this: It may be plain stupid to ignore the fastest growing segments in the camera business (EVIL and FF) if you want a future. And I am sure Pentax isn't stupid. They just don't tell us ...

Last edited by Samsungian; 09-14-2009 at 07:54 AM.
09-14-2009, 07:41 AM   #66
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What famous brands offer?

Canon - huge line of lenses, FF DSLR and APS-C DSLR
Nikon - the same
Sony - FF DSLR and APS-C DSLR.
Leica - compact with APS-C sensor with fixed lens, FF RF camera and MF.
Olympus and Panasonic - micro 4/3 system + 4/3 DSLR.
Sigma - compacts with Foveon sensor with fixed lens and APS-C DSLR.

Pentax - K-7. It's ALL now.

4% (Pentax) of DSLR market could easy become 1-2%, when FF DSLR will have not 7%, but 12-14% of DSLR's market ratio.
09-14-2009, 07:45 AM   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by Samsungian Quote
2009 Dslr marketshare should prove interesting. But we won't see the numbers till April-May 2010, if at all. I agree full frame is above 5% marketshare thesedays.
Already - approx. 7%.
09-14-2009, 07:54 AM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by emr Quote
Falconeye, where have you been?


I've no strong position with respect to FF.

For me, it is not a question of "if" but of "when".

I find it fascinating how 90% of arguments don't hold true and of the remaining, 90% of arguments don't lead to the claimed conclusion.


One detail which is overlooked is pixel pitch. I really prefer APS-C pixel pitch with FF sensor size. But these cameras will continue to be very expensive for some time to come.


The point I wanted to make here is that the market doesn't behave rationally. Pentax must factor this in.

09-14-2009, 08:46 AM   #69
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APSC far from being dead

I'm a bit surprised at all the comments saying that APSC has no future etc...

Apart from the size of the system that will remain a lot smaller than full frame even in 10 years, we have have seen Nikon AND Canon launch 2 APSC high end DSLR in the past months.

At 1800 /$, they are not that far from the price of FF Sony 850.

My own perspective is that in the long term, we'll have pros and amateurs working on APSC and FF just like we had pro and amateurs working on 35mm and medium format. What is a bit confusing is that both are available on the same mount.

Seriously, why half of the forum is complaining about the size of the Pentax bodies and the other half complaining about the absence of FF ?

To go back to when a Pentax FF, the current Pentax lens roadmap is empty (apart from the Medium format 55mm) the possibilities are :
- Pentax / Hoya don't anymore to annouce a lens that comes with a few years delay (60-250) but they are working on new APSC lenses (1.4 TC, 135/2, New 2.8 standard zoom ?)
- Pentax is working on a hudge refresh of their medium format lens lineup in order to counter Leica S2 system.
- Pentax wants to release a complete FF lineup along with a FF body sometimes around 2011 / 2012 (with the ressource available since the release of Pentax 645D)


This is very likely that Pentax will keep its strategy secret until the very last moment.
09-14-2009, 08:58 AM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by Samsungian Quote
[...] people moaning about $2,000 camera thesedays is no different than people moaning about $500 cameras 25 years ago. [...]
Sounds weird, coming from the Rebatian
Who's moaning? Are you saying "be a man, spend 2000$ on a camera!" or something similar? Or (and this is also my point) "don't ask for a FF camera, if you're not willing to pay the price"?

falconeye: "For me, it is not a question of "if" but of "when"."
Same here. If everything goes well (this means us spending our money on higher-end Pentax products ), I think we'll see a FF Pentax DSLR, eventually.
Rationally, an APS-C camera is good enough for most of us - and they will continue to improve with each generation. Irrationally, I somehow feel an urge to go Hasselblad (j/k)
09-14-2009, 09:01 AM   #71
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QuoteOriginally posted by ghelary Quote
I'm a bit surprised at all the comments saying that APSC has no future etc...


This is very likely that Pentax will keep its strategy secret until the very last moment.
Where did you see it??? APS-C has good future. We say about another things.
09-14-2009, 09:29 AM   #72
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote

What is a pitty as well is that the dying out FourThird splits Olympus user base into mFT and FF. Being as underdog as Pentax, Olympus users wanting true SLR would be glad to be able to find a new FF home in Pentax. If there would be the offer.
Yes, consistent growth in the marketplace and profitability with a wide base of satisfied customers is a clear indication of the 4/3 system's imminent death.

A lot of the more advanced 4/3 users do also use FF systems, whether Canon, Nikon, or Sony (so do a lot of Pentax users). If Pentax offered a FF camera at a good price, you can bet there would be 4/3 users who would buy a FF Pentax, too. After all, many 4/3 users are attracted by the excellent lenses, which are a strong point of Pentax as well.

But really, I wouldn't bank on 4/3 dying out anytime soon. Sensors of all sizes are only getting better and better, and all that fantastic 4/3 glass isn't going anywhere...

I wouldn't expect an Oly FF, either. No preexisting AF glass, and no good economic reason. 4/3 outsells FF as it is, so why waste money breaking into a market that's even more niche than the one they have? 4/3 and m4/3 are their paths into the future.
09-14-2009, 10:00 AM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by er1kksen Quote
I wouldn't bank on 4/3 dying out anytime soon.
I agree. Why I didn't say "soon".

Between P&S/phones and FF, I see a bright future for mFT, X1, NX. Even brighter if this camp could settle on a mount (btw, is mFT wide enough to support APS-C? Probably yes as it is pretty large (42mm = PK/1.12)).

Anticipating a success for mFT, I see Olympus to slowly withdraw from the FT market over time.
09-14-2009, 02:28 PM   #74
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FF k-m/k2000 for $2000... too good to be true!
09-14-2009, 04:02 PM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by ghelary Quote
I'm a bit surprised at all the comments saying that APSC has no future etc...
No kidding.

The last year has seen the most phenomenal growth in SLR cameras ever.

And 95% of that growth has been from APS-C DSLR's. They've "made" the market, so to speak.

FF is the afterthought, only made possible by capital gained from the sale of APS-C. Without the cost-effectiveness of APS-C there would have been no FF development. There is very little FF demand comparatively and for many it is not a new entrant purchase, but a buy-up for a very small segment of the consumer market.

Measured by market dynamics, APS-C has been a stunning and widely accepted standard contributing to one of the most explosive, creative phases of the industry by any measure (Flickr, Facebook, and mobile phone cams have also been a factor).

Leica has been a total failure. It's wracked by poor management, loses money hand over fist, is heavily subsidized by another industry backer as a "hobby" business, and produces dated cameras that appeal to legacy and nostalgia buyers. Put another way, without their lenses, they'd be 6 feet under—a rotting by now.

The game changer is going to be M4/3 or equivalent, plus video. The historical trend for camera improvement has been miniaturization of an equivalent feature set. FF goes the complete opposite direction. It's success will plateau due to form factor alone.

And, no, a $2,000 camera was not $500 20 years ago in real terms as an absolute measure. You are applying a discount rate assuming that relative net worth has also appreciated along with buying power corrected for inflation. Most Western middle class incomes have stagnated over the last decade. You need more data points to make that equation work. Another factor is that P&S cameras now offer quality shooting not competitively available 20 years ago. This has been the saving grace of production: high quality images at relatively low cost with an improving technology dynamic. That's why the major growth markets have been in Asia and non-Western countries where most buyers do not have personal computers. So they shoot JPEG and edit in camera.

That's the future. A smaller, complete camera and editing system, linked to the cloud. In 10 years that will be 75% of the market having grown 5x faster than every other segment. FF will be a footnote. Cameraphones are a fad limited by the optical laws of physics (there is a limit to lo-fi). APS-C is likely the right size to get the higher-end of that market, but I would not be surprised to see M4/3 make up the bulk of the segment.

If Pentax wants to stay relevant, it should not be putting scarce resources as a market like FF with a very small growth projection compared to the possibilities elsewhere, not when the current segment is crowded, even over-crowded. One S2 vanity purchase will eclipse 7 potential Pentax FF potential buyers. Who wants to compete in a non-utilitarian, boutique, highly variable market like that, full of whiny semi-pro wannabes? The maintenance overhead on product lines like that is brutal, sucking creative capital out of a company. Is Leica a financially healthy enterprise? No. Do you value your K-mount investment? If you answer yes to the last question, you'll want Pentax to survive not by engineering itself into a niche. If you want FF, find another brand.

Last edited by Aristophanes; 09-14-2009 at 05:30 PM. Reason: typos
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