Pentax's President of US Operations Ned Bunnell said that the next camera to be released by Pentax will be the 645D in early 2010.

Pentax K-x Hands On

[Mister Guy]

Assuming that statement is correct, and the 645D is the next in the pipe, one would think that the next logical step after prices begin to fall for the K-7 and K-x is the midrange market. Am I wrong in thinking that they've tended to put yesterdays hottest features in tomorrow midrange a couple months before they release the next hot feature market?

So maybe we'll see a summer release next year of a K-70 or a K-700 as the mid range, and a Christmas or spring release of a K-8 or K-9. Or, a K-8st

[gazonk]

KX and KM were did not live long, they were quickly (very quickly for that era) replaced by MX and ME, then ME Super, and other ME variants, and then the LX.

I wonder if we will we see an M-x, an M-e and an L-x?

[kevinschoenmakers]

I think there is also plenty of room below the K-x. Using an older chip with less pixels, removing the video, liveview and some other non-essential features can probably drop the price by about $200. And the entry-level segment is the busiest of the market so it would be a sensible place to for Pentax.

Also, there's alot of room elsewhere. As these boards show plenty of people don't need or want video on their camera. Typically these people also want their camera to be geared towards the somewhat more serious user. A dumbed down K-7 without video, without LV, without 40 different bodycolours, without fancy in-camera filters and with the 12.4MP sensor could possibly fall right between $600 and $1300.

Considering Pentax' more assertive behaviour since the Hoya takeover it wouldn't surprise me if they started to make more lines of models from now on.

[Ash]

K200D has very weak AA filter and sharper pictures than K20D.

Do tell us how this is so, ogl.

[Blue]

There was the k110D for K10D/K100D/K110D and then there was the K100Super for K10D/K100Super/K100D.

Believe it was also the K20D/K200D/K2000.

So it seems like K-7/Kwhat/K-X would be the norm. I think there is room for a WR K-X with grip. There is a lot of range between $649.95 and $1299 to leave open. A camera sitting at $900 seems likely.

Thank you
Russell

Don't forget that the K2000 is designated the K-m in places.

[JonPB]

What if manufacturing capacity is the limiting factor here? Not whether Pentax wants to release a third camera line, but whether it even can. Pentax has almost always staggered their camera releases, and seems to routinely have lots of back-stock of older items. This suggests to me that Pentax has a single manufacturing line which produces a large number of cameras in a run--then shuts down and starts making another camera.

Which tells me that Pentax manufactured the K-7 from May until September of this year. Now the line is set up for K-x production, as it will continue to be as long as they're producing custom-colored cameras. For Pentax to release another camera, they'd have to shut down K-x production. In which case, I'd say to watch for a new camera release no sooner than few weeks after Pentax stops offering custom K-x colors.

Pentax DSLR release dates:

2009-09-17 K-x (4 months later)
2009-05-20 K-7 (8 months later)
2008-09-22 K-m (8 months later)
2008-01-23 K200D (same day)
2008-01-23 K20D (7 months later)
2007-06-28 K100D Super (9 months later)
2006-09-13 K10D (4 months later)
2006-05-22 K100D (same day)
2006-05-22 K110D (4 months later)
2006-01-27 *ist DL2 (5 months later)
2005-08-22 *ist DS2 (2 months later)
2005-06-01 *ist DL (9 months later)
2004-09-13 *ist DS (19 months later)
2003-02-26 *ist D

Note that the K20D and K200D were released at the same time, which might be explained by a manufacturing partnership with Samsung--which might also have caused the problems which led to that relationship dissolving. The K100D and K110D were also released on the same day, but were almost identical cameras, with the K110D just lacking shake reduction.

The K10D was a very popular camera, had a long-ish production run (for an expensive camera), which further supports my theory.

The 645D will be made in very small numbers, on a different assembly line. If this is successful, Pentax could continue using that manufacturing ability for low-volume products, which would provide a great halo for all things Pentax.

I could be completely wrong, but that's my read on things. Yet I think looking at things from Pentax's view rather than the consumer's view is more enlightening. Pentax isn't trying to maximize profit with a certain camera lineup, but is trying to maximize profit based on its production capacity.

Ergo, no more camera bodies in 2009.

[Blue]

Even boutique manufacturing operations can often run a 2nd smaller line which would work to fill orders on an existing line if need be.

[Aristophanes]

What if manufacturing capacity is the limiting factor here? Not whether Pentax wants to release a third camera line, but whether it even can. Pentax has almost always staggered their camera releases, and seems to routinely have lots of back-stock of older items. This suggests to me that Pentax has a single manufacturing line which produces a large number of cameras in a run--then shuts down and starts making another camera.

Which tells me that Pentax manufactured the K-7 from May until September of this year. Now the line is set up for K-x production, as it will continue to be as long as they're producing custom-colored cameras. For Pentax to release another camera, they'd have to shut down K-x production. In which case, I'd say to watch for a new camera release no sooner than few weeks after Pentax stops offering custom K-x colors.

What you say makes a lot of sense, especially about overstock and production lines. It also explains a bit about the green line in the K-7 (go to pro, but it's hard to tweak after pro, so it's a sw fix).

The K200D is interesting because it partly looks like an attempt by Pentax to have a lower price point body that would match the DA* lenses. Now they're abandoning that route (the Subaru route) for the lower-end eye-candy, compact crowd. This is probably better with all the attention M4/3 is receiving.

I suspect that the K-x custom colour polycarb bodies are outsourced, however, and it's more of an assembly system. They can be formed and extruded in minutes with a web order now. They can probably alter production runs with fairly sharp turnaround notice and no re-tooling.

For Pentax, the issue with only 2 bodies and a price-straddling situation, their high-end body has to be profitable and sell well, so volume is at the mercy of competitor quid pro quo release dates and prices, but their low-end has to be near-perfect in its segment. If it is not, it is too expensive for entry-level, and too feature poor or compromised for a mid-range bargain. Yo have t entice the true new entrant to the market to buy a little bit; and conversely, present a feature-rich bargain to the guy who originally sees the competitor and feels sticker shock.
As the higher end of the competitor drops in price, the Pentax has to drop both models further, faster, and reap the poor reward of lower comparative margins. What they gain up front in capital outlay with only 2 models and terrific starting price points, they pay dearly for after the mid-point of the product cycle. About the only example on the chart you show is the K10D. APS and 4/3 is really a 3 model industry, and Pentax is the only 2-horse chariot in the colosseum. That said, they've got 4% market share with only 2 horses. How many does Oly have and only a fraction more market share. Pentax may not have their marketing and focus (ha ha) clarified, but they're making a lot with less.

[Votesh]

I don't think it will have too much of an impact on the overall entry level DSLR sales heirarchy. I could be very wrong though.

I think that since Pentax has been pushing the weathersealed camera at a reasonable price thing, it's a mistake for them to only offer weathersealing in their top of the line model. Hell, I think it would be a good idea even if they just released a K-x weathersealed edition that was a little larger and more expensive. A truly weathersealed, near entry level priced camera and lens would appeal to a TON of people.

Weathersealing on "cheaper" cameras is one of the few things where Pentax has an undisputed leg up on the rest of the DSLR market. Now they have an OK selection of WS lenses at entry level and higher price points. Entry level WS body+entry level WS lenses= something no other company even comes close to offering, or even seems to want to offer.

I think the K-x is a nice package for the price, but there's room for something higher than it, and lower than the K-7. Even if it's just a K-x WS.

The K-m was pushed just as hard here in Japan as one for the Mum's.
A completely different target audience.
With the K-x, they'll continue that(imo), and also target a young crowd with the colour scheming of its body, compact size and video.
I think that it's important to keep that for the entry level side of things.

Not wanting to compare, but Pentax will want to eat into the lower-end market that gives us the Canon Kiss, Olympus EP-1, and Panasonics.
I think it will do just that with the K-x.

[ogl]

There was the k110D for K10D/K100D/K110D and then there was the K100Super for K10D/K100Super/K100D.

Believe it was also the K20D/K200D/K2000.

So it seems like K-7/Kwhat/K-X would be the norm. I think there is room for a WR K-X with grip. There is a lot of range between $649.95 and $1299 to leave open. A camera sitting at $900 seems likely.

Thank you
Russell

K-m was the first HOYA camera and the first camera in NEW LINE.
K200D was discontinued after K-m's launch.

[Blue]

K-m was the first HOYA camera and the first camera in NEW LINE.
K200D was discontinued after K-m's launch.

The K200d was NOT officially discontinued after the launch of the K2000 (K-m). They may not have had to do a production run due to existing stock. Regardless, it was not discontinued. As a matter of fact, it is still in the Pentax Imaging site for sale. It will probably be discontinued when stocks are depleted but it isn't official yet.

Edit: Amazon seems to think that the K-x is the K200d replacement.

Edit: Edit: Logically, the K200d and K-m would be discontinued when the stock of sensors or depleted since they take the ccd sensors and the last 2 bodies are cmos.

[WMBP]

What if manufacturing capacity is the limiting factor here? Not whether Pentax wants to release a third camera line, but whether it even can. Pentax has almost always staggered their camera releases, and seems to routinely have lots of back-stock of older items. This suggests to me that Pentax has a single manufacturing line which produces a large number of cameras in a run--then shuts down and starts making another camera.
...
Ergo, no more camera bodies in 2009.

Interesting analysis. I no very little about the business side of things (even of my own business!) but this sounds plausible. Thanks.

Will

[WMBP]

Well, when I started this thread I was especially interested in finding out if anybody thought that there would be a camera ABOVE the K-7 released any time soon. And I was thinking only of APS-C format, not medium format.

Sounds like the consensus is that there's not going to be a product released at a HIGHER price than the K-7 any time soon.

Will

[philbaum]

What I would really like to see introduced is the TC and a DA* superwide lens. I don't mind it being a prime or zoom but right now the 16-50 is as wide as the DA* series offers. A longer than 300 (400 F4.0) is also needed though I would not be a candidate for that, it is needed to complete the line up.

I don't understand your statement wtih the DA12-24 and the DA 15, seems like that's wide enough???

I wouldn't think you would have lens guys just sitting around, perhaps they are busy with the TC and/or new updated lenses for the 645D.

A longer tele would be a good project for Pentax. They advertise their WR cameras as outdoor ones for those seeking wildlife in remote places, but there is a disconnect wtih long range capability. yes, third party provide some alternatives, but i think a 500mm zoom would give the wildlife folks something to talk about. (have to admit, i'm not tempted to buy anything beyond my existing DA300)