I don't belong to the "the sky is still falling" party, you know
So ok, let's see...
Originally posted by Russell-Evans 365 * 365 = 133,225
Pentax has a stated goal of 500,000 DSLR for 2009.
My guesstimate from market share: 1/3 of 4% of 10 million = 400,000/3 or 11k units /m.
Hoya not too long ago reported 350,000 units/y as their goal. So, I think my guess is the most realistic around here. But you never know ...
500,000/3 would be 14k/m.
Originally posted by RaduA Sorry Falk but your hypothesis is wrong hence the end results will be wrong. Pentax isn't it doomed to forever struggle under 4% you know!
They make 20K units of K-7 a month
The initial plan for K-x production is 28K units per month
I am not sure if Pentax' production capacity allows to maintain both figures concurrently. But let's assume so, makes 580,000 units/y.
2009 prediction was lower than 10 million but I am sticking with 10 million. The economy simply didn't crash as badly as some thought it would (look at K-7 figures
). So, 5.8% (say 6%) market share again.
I don't say impossible. But 20k/m is the most optimistic figure possible, with 10k/m being more realistic. Say, anything between 10k and 20k/m.
So, 135 sales a day via Amazon (or 4k a month) would account for 20% to 40% of worldwide sales. And this isn't counting the WR kits. Include them and you easily exceed 100%. This is why I said something doesn't count up.
BTW
Amazon may include B&H and Adorama. Still, I think most would buy through their online stores directly. They are well known. Why buy via Amazon? So, the figures won't include the bulk of B&H/Adorama sales.
Moreover, in Europe (Germany for sure), almost nobody buys Pentax thru Amazon. They simply cannot compete with the better online dealers here. Don't know for Asis but I guess it is similiar. Don't extrapolate the US to the world. Which means that the Amazon figure exceeds the total US sales volume already.
I simply think that the rank is correct but the underlying sales volume prediction is just flawed.