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10-13-2009, 01:27 AM   #1
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The K-7 on Amazon.com - rank and sales

Right after the DPR review came out on the K-7, someone was posting a thread that manually tracked the Amazon.com rank position of the K-7 in the DSLR category. Being curious, I looked around to see if there was software that did this.

In looking, I came across a site, Ranktracer, that tracks sale rank of products on Amazon.com in the different departments. This isn't exactly what the people in the thread were doing as the K-7 would be ranked in the entire electronic section, not just by DSLR. The other thing different is this site only tracks a specific listing. You can't just track "Pentax K-7" and get data that combines all the K-7 listings.

So while I'm trying to understand the site I see it only costs $2 a month to track a listing and it takes paypal. I figure why not, so started tracking the K-7 body only listing for three months for $6. I figure this was close enough to Christmas to get an idea of sales for the year.

The tracker has been active for a week now. The K-7 body only listing, has an average sales rank in the electronics department of 150,with the best rank being 96, and the worst rank being 240. While this in itself isn't that interesting, the site also has some backend logic to guesstimate sales. It estimates the K-7 body only listing averages 137 sales a day and so far Amazon has sold 1209 units of the listing since Oct 5, the day I set up the tracker.

As of my counting tonight, there are more than twenty K-7 listings, kits of various sorts, on Amazon so this isn't a complete picture of K-7 sales on Amazon.com, but I think it is interesting, 50,000 units if the average holds. I do wish I had of been tracking the listing before just to see if the DPR review had any impact on sales. Maybe someone else can do it for the K-X.

Thank you
Russell


Last edited by Russell-Evans; 10-13-2009 at 01:33 AM.
10-13-2009, 01:50 AM   #2
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This comparison Google chart is quite interesting - it looks like Pentax has definitely made a stir in the japanese market
10-13-2009, 02:01 AM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nass Quote
This comparison Google chart is quite interesting - it looks like Pentax has definitely made a stir in the japanese market
It's absolutely NONSENSE.
10-13-2009, 05:12 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Russell-Evans Quote
It estimates the K-7 body only listing averages 137 sales a day and so far Amazon has sold 1209 units of the listing since Oct 5, the day I set up the tracker.

As of my counting tonight, there are more than twenty K-7 listings, kits of various sorts, on Amazon so this isn't a complete picture of K-7 sales on Amazon.com, but I think it is interesting, 50,000 units if the average holds.
Well, something must be wrong here.

Using a 4% market share, 10 million dSLR/y market, and 1/3 of Pentax goes to K-7 (the rest going to to K-m, K-x etc.), we end up with worldwide sales of K-7 of about 365 units/day. (Easy to remember as like numbers of days per year)

So, this single amazon listing would account for 37% of worldwide sales. And of course, not all listings are equally popular. Still combined, would exceed 100%.


So, two things to learn:
1. K-7 selling hot indeed
2. Ranking figures guestimator not trustworthy.

10-13-2009, 07:13 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Well, something must be wrong here.

Using a 4% market share, 10 million dSLR/y market, and 1/3 of Pentax goes to K-7 (the rest going to to K-m, K-x etc.), we end up with worldwide sales of K-7 of about 365 units/day. (Easy to remember as like numbers of days per year)

So, this single amazon listing would account for 37% of worldwide sales. And of course, not all listings are equally popular. Still combined, would exceed 100%.


So, two things to learn:
1. K-7 selling hot indeed
2. Ranking figures guestimator not trustworthy.
365 * 365 = 133,225
Pentax has a stated goal of 500,000 DSLR for 2009.
That is about is 1370 per day which would put the 137 at around 10%. Considering that listing covers the K-7 from from all Amazon stores( B&H, Adorama, ...) as well as Amazon.com itself, why not? Give or take a percentage point or two.


The average daily sales are only from seven days. Seven days after a good review, and that is a pretty short time to be extrapolating results from. The average may drop to 50 at some point. In any event, you can't average a 150 rank in the entire electronic section of Amazon.com without selling a few of something.

Thank you
Russell
10-13-2009, 07:41 AM   #6
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I too thought the initial numbers were high, but I'm prepared to take a back seat for a while and see what turns up in these few months.
Thanks for taking the time Russell.
Could be an interesting thread.
10-13-2009, 07:42 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Well, something must be wrong here.

Using a 4% market share, 10 million dSLR/y market, and 1/3 of Pentax goes to K-7 (the rest going to to K-m, K-x etc.), we end up with worldwide sales of K-7 of about 365 units/day. (Easy to remember as like numbers of days per year)

So, this single amazon listing would account for 37% of worldwide sales. And of course, not all listings are equally popular. Still combined, would exceed 100%.


So, two things to learn:
1. K-7 selling hot indeed
2. Ranking figures guestimator not trustworthy.
Sorry Falk but your hypothesis is wrong hence the end results will be wrong. Pentax isn't it doomed to forever struggle under 4% you know! They make 20K units of K-7 a month so they would sell (of course excluding fluctuations) 667 units per day worldwide. BTW, remember the reference made by Hoya that K-7 is back ordered? So if we consider sales thru Amazon (the bulk of US sales I am sure because they include B&H, Adorama and other big Pentax dealers) to be 85-90% of US sales and rest thru brick and mortar shops and pentaximaging I'd say 150 units per day average is close to reality.

Now that 150 units per day means a meager 22.5% global share of K-7 sales pretty much in line with what we can expect from Pentax USA.

So I think all ends tie up pretty nicely.

Radu

P.S. The initial plan for K-x production is 28K units per month so at least for a while Pentax will make close to 50K dslr per month which means close to 600K units per year. Considering a total production close to 8.5-9 millions units for 2009 (down from 2008) if they keep full production they can reach 6-6.5% market share worldwide and a tremendous boost locally in Japan. Obviously there are other factors to keep in mind e.g. overlaps between actual years and fiscal years (Apr 09 - March 10), older stocks of K-m, K-20, even K200 and so on.
Of course the sky is still falling!
10-13-2009, 10:15 AM   #8
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I don't belong to the "the sky is still falling" party, you know

So ok, let's see...

QuoteOriginally posted by Russell-Evans Quote
365 * 365 = 133,225
Pentax has a stated goal of 500,000 DSLR for 2009.
My guesstimate from market share: 1/3 of 4% of 10 million = 400,000/3 or 11k units /m.

Hoya not too long ago reported 350,000 units/y as their goal. So, I think my guess is the most realistic around here. But you never know ...

500,000/3 would be 14k/m.

QuoteOriginally posted by RaduA Quote
Sorry Falk but your hypothesis is wrong hence the end results will be wrong. Pentax isn't it doomed to forever struggle under 4% you know!

They make 20K units of K-7 a month

The initial plan for K-x production is 28K units per month
I am not sure if Pentax' production capacity allows to maintain both figures concurrently. But let's assume so, makes 580,000 units/y.

2009 prediction was lower than 10 million but I am sticking with 10 million. The economy simply didn't crash as badly as some thought it would (look at K-7 figures ). So, 5.8% (say 6%) market share again.

I don't say impossible. But 20k/m is the most optimistic figure possible, with 10k/m being more realistic. Say, anything between 10k and 20k/m.

So, 135 sales a day via Amazon (or 4k a month) would account for 20% to 40% of worldwide sales. And this isn't counting the WR kits. Include them and you easily exceed 100%. This is why I said something doesn't count up.


BTW
Amazon may include B&H and Adorama. Still, I think most would buy through their online stores directly. They are well known. Why buy via Amazon? So, the figures won't include the bulk of B&H/Adorama sales.

Moreover, in Europe (Germany for sure), almost nobody buys Pentax thru Amazon. They simply cannot compete with the better online dealers here. Don't know for Asis but I guess it is similiar. Don't extrapolate the US to the world. Which means that the Amazon figure exceeds the total US sales volume already.


I simply think that the rank is correct but the underlying sales volume prediction is just flawed.

10-13-2009, 10:51 AM   #9
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Just had a look at Amazon Germany ...

Unlike rank 19 in the US (dSLR category), it holds ranks 13 and 15 there. Great!

And it is rank 106 rather than 134 in camera&photo.

And the product page has a great video I haven't seen before, reusing these Russian dirt photos ...
-> Amazon.com : Entertainment : Produktvideo Pentax K7


BTW, the differences by country mean that the sales ranks are meant nationally. And so must the sales volume.


Sales rank at Amazon France is 50 (14 for the K-m though). A Nikon FM10 film body is rank 25

As I said, Amazon isn't that strong in Europe ...
10-13-2009, 11:37 AM   #10
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Falk, your math is incorrect: 1/3 of 4% of 10 million = 400,000/3 = 13.3 K/month.
500000/3 will be 16.6 K/month.
So depending on which figure you use, the Amazon estimate (4K) is approx 20-25%.
10-13-2009, 11:46 AM   #11
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1001 Noisy Cameras tracks the amazon sales chart as well, on - I think - a weekly basis.
10-13-2009, 02:40 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I don't belong to the "the sky is still falling" party, you know

I do know, it wasn't directed at you obviously just a joke about the constant fear of Pentax demise regardless of the news or topic in hand.

So ok, let's see...


My guesstimate from market share: 1/3 of 4% of 10 million = 400,000/3 or 11k units /m.

Hoya not too long ago reported 350,000 units/y as their goal. So, I think my guess is the most realistic around here. But you never know ...

They also say the target is 10% market share, of course without a deadline. Speaking of over ambitious targets I remember Sony's goals a few years ago ...

500,000/3 would be 14k/m.

I am not sure if Pentax' production capacity allows to maintain both figures concurrently. But let's assume so, makes 580,000 units/y.

We can only speculate but there is one hard fact though: they hired 200 workers at the Philippines factory in Q1/09. I guess they are now ready and fully trained so there is hope for extra production capacity.

2009 prediction was lower than 10 million but I am sticking with 10 million. The economy simply didn't crash as badly as some thought it would (look at K-7 figures ). So, 5.8% (say 6%) market share again.

CIPA is predicting 10.35M units for 2009 and whether over optimistic or not your 10M number is closer to reality than mine. K-7 success can be approximated from the fact its price is in 85-90% of the original price range after 3.5 months after the hard launch. I'd say they will make those 20K a month in anticipation of Xmas season worldwide and reconsider after that what is the reasonable level of production. I don't say it's best, I only say that I'd do it like this!

I don't say impossible. But 20k/m is the most optimistic figure possible, with 10k/m being more realistic. Say, anything between 10k and 20k/m.

So, 135 sales a day via Amazon (or 4k a month) would account for 20% to 40% of worldwide sales. And this isn't counting the WR kits. Include them and you easily exceed 100%. This is why I said something doesn't count up.

Again, we don't have no hard numbers one way or another unfortunatelly ...

BTW
Amazon may include B&H and Adorama. Still, I think most would buy through their online stores directly. They are well known. Why buy via Amazon? So, the figures won't include the bulk of B&H/Adorama sales.

Moreover, in Europe (Germany for sure), almost nobody buys Pentax thru Amazon. They simply cannot compete with the better online dealers here. Don't know for Asis but I guess it is similiar. Don't extrapolate the US to the world. Which means that the Amazon figure exceeds the total US sales volume already.

I know nothing about Amazon' deals with various dealers they host so I couldn't say one way or another.

I simply think that the rank is correct but the underlying sales volume prediction is just flawed.

Could be and the only real measurement of sales can come only from Hoya itself. If the business is good I have no doubt they will gladly let us all know!
Regards,
Radu
10-13-2009, 02:43 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
BTW, the differences by country mean that the sales ranks are meant nationally. And so must the sales volume.

That is why I specified Amazon.com. You can track the other Amazon sites, de, uk, ... Being in the US and knowing that amazon.com is one of only a handful of places the K-7 can be ordered from, my interest was in it.

The listing tracked, is covered by Amazon.com, Adorama, Beach Camera, Willoughby, Cameta Camera, J&R, Ace Photo, Calumet, and a few other Amazon stores I have never heard of.

Thank you
Russell
10-13-2009, 02:45 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by andre-mz5 Quote
Falk, your math is incorrect: 1/3 of 4% of 10 million = 400,000/3 = 13.3 K/month.
Well, I do make mistakes. So I checked again. I think you forgot to divide by 12 (#months/y).
10-13-2009, 02:55 PM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Russell-Evans Quote
The listing tracked, is covered by Amazon.com, Adorama, Beach Camera, Willoughby, Cameta Camera, J&R, Ace Photo, Calumet, and a few other Amazon stores I have never heard of.
Yes, I see.

But you can buy from Adorama going thru Amazon, or from Adorama directly. They may include the former but cannot include the latter channel, simply because Amazon would never be able to know about.

And I was just assuming that people buying from Adorama or B&H would more likely do so directly, not via Amazon. Except if the Amazon price would be better. Which isn't the case in Europe. Don't know for the US.
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