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10-28-2009, 07:04 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The last thing Pentax wants with an FF body is to sell it alone without complementary lens sales. All those people hoarding FF glass are actually a market liability to Pentax, making it less likely an FF body is forthcoming, at the very least significantly delaying introduction.

People look at the current user base of legacy glass as a good thing. For Pentax, it's not so good when planning future development. An FF lens system will need to have AF, SDM, and WR to be successful. That's a lot of $$$ to develop and needs a large, deep pocket market to sell to. Many meeting that criteria, are right here, posting regularly!
Precisely ...and given the relatively small market for FF I just don't see Pentax entering that at this point. Their resources are stretched now trying to produce lenses for APS-C and MF that will be introduced early next year. As I have said before, FF will have to go mainstream to become viable for Pentax (and for that fact Sony) and I do not see that happening any time soon.

10-28-2009, 07:08 AM   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by Angevinn Quote
Plus, having a medium format digital camera will make some pretty large files. My K20D makes 16mb RAW files, a medium format file could easily make a 100mb RAW file. Files that large will take a lot of processing power to handle on a computer and take up a lot of space.

I doubt this will ever be a problem with 35mm FF. Both processing power and storage is cheap, problem solved. When the image files get up to sizes problematic for todays computers, the computers will also have evolved a lot.

Just for fun I have scanned some MF 6x6 negatives at the best quality my V700 can give. It resulted in... wait for it... just under 192Mp images. Taking up a bit over 1Gb of space each. These files are ridiculously large, but still well manageable on my computer (2,4GHz Dual Core with 6Gb memory). Monster big files but not a monster computer and runs fine.

A petty 100Mb file is no problem. All my 35mm colour scans are about 70-80Mb and I can flip though them without a problem.


As for Full Frame Pentax, I think it will come, eventually...
10-28-2009, 08:48 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by netuser Quote
I have FF and APS-C lens mainly AF.
K200d and K7 and I would buy a FF body from Pentax.
QuoteOriginally posted by ozlizard Quote
Can't see why that would be a problem for a company like Pentax with their experience. They have done it before, why not a new range of lenses superior or at least equal to Zeiss, Canon or Nikon glass? Of course they can, do you really think they will stick to the old glass or the new entry level stuff? This is a company with a proud record of producing some of the best glass ever, so why not more?
Nostalgia likely won't work with a 4% market share. Back in the day, Pentax had 2-5x that, so the installed base could reinvest with security.

Now, the idea to create an FF system needs to do so to add market share. All while competing with APS-C.

That's the trick. Furthermore, high quality bodies will demand the same for glass. That adds cost, raising the barrier to expanding market share.

Those capital costs have to be spread out amongst a very large base of consumers. I am not seeing that base.
10-28-2009, 09:15 AM   #154
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I love how many keep talking about limited market share...blah...blah.

I don't think that's what it's about. If I worked for Pentax I wouldn't try to take the market that's currently using a 5D MkII. Not that many people will convert. And that's not what it's about! If the marketing team at Pentax can't expand the number of Pentax users, then they're not doing their job. If and when Pentax releases a FF camera, the marketing people shouldn't waste time with existing FF users, or Pentax APS-C users, or 645D users for that matter too. Pentax APS-C users will upgrade on their own when they're ready. They need to target other brand APS-C users thinking of upgrading by advertising the fact they can buy a FF Pentax for much less than any other brand out there. That's one of Pentax's biggest strengths, and it's not about the current market share that already own a FF, but expanding affordable market share to those people who are thinking about upgrading and those Pentax users switching systems because a FF isn't currently offered here.

10-28-2009, 09:25 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by pxpaulx Quote
words...out...of...mouth. Not 3 posts into that thread ogl was already being quoted in a tertiary reference. amazing.

What would it take to get a few less of these threads going, and a few more new K-x user reviews around here?!

Do 4/3 camera users have to put up with all this crap too? There are 2 larger companies and one wannabe that offer FF. If you have the money to spend, cant you just go already? (yeah i know, legacy yada yada) You heard it here first...if it happens it happens!
I think it is more a matter of wanting the lowest price, highest value FF (sub $1,500 or something like that) that they have been dreaming about rather than legacy issues. Pentax owners tend to be penny pinchers which is how Pentax has positioned themselves over the years. I know that I am, but I do not expect to get something of exceptional value for a cheap price.
10-28-2009, 09:29 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Nostalgia likely won't work with a 4% market share. Back in the day, Pentax had 2-5x that, so the installed base could reinvest with security.

Now, the idea to create an FF system needs to do so to add market share. All while competing with APS-C.

That's the trick. Furthermore, high quality bodies will demand the same for glass. That adds cost, raising the barrier to expanding market share.

Those capital costs have to be spread out amongst a very large base of consumers. I am not seeing that base.
Stop talking sense - this is a camera forum. Wet dreams and fantasy only please.....
10-28-2009, 09:30 AM   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by Photomy Quote
I think it is more a matter of wanting the lowest price, highest value FF (sub $1,500 or something like that) that they have been dreaming about rather than legacy issues. Pentax owners tend to be penny pinchers which is how Pentax has positioned themselves over the years. I know that I am, but I do not expect to get something of exceptional value for a cheap price.
Its also why Pentax nearly went out of business.
10-28-2009, 09:54 AM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Nostalgia likely won't work with a 4% market share. Back in the day, Pentax had 2-5x that, so the installed base could reinvest with security.

Now, the idea to create an FF system needs to do so to add market share. All while competing with APS-C..


You forget that the market is five times larger now than it was back when Pentax had 15~20% marketshare.

All Pentax need for FF is it to be profitable. Nothing more. The day Pentax find economic sense in releasing an FF camera they will. It is really that simple. The Pentax K-mount is an FF system so an FF camera will come one day.....

10-28-2009, 10:15 AM   #159
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...and I'll be happy to jump in the FF wagon that day!
10-28-2009, 02:32 PM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The price older lenses command is more likely due to the dropping supply and less to do with outright demand. Quality may drive residual demand, but constrained supply is most likely what is driving up prices.

Problem is: Will FF bring more customers to Pentax, or just siphon off existing $$$ from the APS-C the installed base?

The last thing Pentax wants with an FF body is to sell it alone without complementary lens sales. All those people hoarding FF glass are actually a market liability to Pentax, making it less likely an FF body is forthcoming, at the very least significantly delaying introduction.

People look at the current user base of legacy glass as a good thing. For Pentax, it's not so good when planning future development. An FF lens system will need to have AF, SDM, and WR to be successful. That's a lot of $$$ to develop and needs a large, deep pocket market to sell to. Many meeting that criteria, are right here, posting regularly!
the last time I heard, Pentax is now owned by Hoya. they shouldn't have any problems with such a small thing FF dslr. if they could produce 2 APS-C sensor dslr every year, with the same FA/DA/DA* lenses supply every year, what's keeping them from making an FF? what are those FA LTD lenses doing here and created for in the first place? is making an FF sensor camera that expensive? or is it because Pentax is trying to figure out how they would like an FF dslr look and perform?
10-28-2009, 02:37 PM   #161
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QuoteOriginally posted by *isteve Quote
Its also why Pentax nearly went out of business.
Pentax almost went out of business because of poor marketing. not because they sell cheap. besides, I don't see China going bankrupt just because they sell cheap items.
10-28-2009, 06:37 PM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
You forget that the market is five times larger now than it was back when Pentax had 15~20% marketshare.

All Pentax need for FF is it to be profitable. Nothing more. The day Pentax find economic sense in releasing an FF camera they will. It is really that simple. The Pentax K-mount is an FF system so an FF camera will come one day.....
No, I am not forgetting that. It's largely relative, as are the advancements in technology amortized over the base of users. It's far easier to source materials and supply. Look at how mercenary Pentax is with chip suppliers.

All this means is that the price/ROI competition is more fierce. Worse, it's a fractured market. Back in the day, almost everything was 35mm, including pocket cams. I shot Rollei for a decade. Now there are multiple sensor sizes and suppliers. 35mm FF is niche, so by definition, it's fighting for a niche market. Can Pentax alone grow a niche market? Better to see what the big guys do and how their margins fare. Cameras have always been price sensitive, losing money on the high-end, but making up the difference on volume and lens margins.

Right now Pentax struggles to lay out more than 2 DSLR's, missing critical price points, and their P&S line is not well thought of (and that's necessary gross revenues). Lots of work to do before FF. An FF setup would cost enormous capital and long-term supply contracts. To do that, they need a defined size of market. There's huge risk to profits and company viability if they get it wrong. This is not a good time to be a Japanese manufacturer (high Yen, loss of carry trade, getting priced out). Ask Sony.
10-28-2009, 06:58 PM   #163
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Actually, Pentax nearly went out of business by pursuing *exactly* the strategy they are currently pursuing - offering no high end enthusiast/professional gear (in this case, FF) and focusing on low/lower end "consumer" grade gear. This brilliant strategy - which many here tout as the road to success - is how Pentax went from selling more cameras than anyone to an also-ran. If history teaches us anything, it is that Pentax needs to move upmarket, and that means a FF offering is a must. Competing for nothing but a small piece of the most crowded market segment is sort of like slitting your own throat.
10-28-2009, 07:07 PM   #164
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Original Poster
QuoteQuote:
They need to target other brand APS-C users thinking of upgrading by advertising the fact they can buy a FF Pentax for much less than any other brand out there. That's one of Pentax's biggest strengths, and it's not about the current market share that already own a FF, but expanding affordable market share to those people who are thinking about upgrading and those Pentax users switching systems because a FF isn't currently offered here.
You hit that old nail right on the head! Pentax have alway offered the best bang for buck and the reviewers know it and say it and consumers will take notice.
10-28-2009, 07:22 PM   #165
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Large sensors will get cheaper. APS-C sensors will get more and more pixels. Eventually, the highest pixel count APS-C sensors will cost more then the FF chip with the same pixel count.

So you can either have an APS-C with 60 MP, for 150 bucks, or you can buy a FF 60MP for $150.00.

I expect when this happens, FF will becoame the mainstream, and ultrahigh MP count APS-C sensors will be used by those that want the reach of a crop sensor.

Eventually, all builders will offer FF along with APS-C. Nikon is the best example of this right now. Their D300 and D700 are almost the same camera, except for sensor size. Although Canon has both APS-C and FF, they still do not have two cameras with similar feature sets but different sensors. But, I expect they will eventually. Then there is Sony. They just broke the $2000.00 barier. I expect they will soon release the A800 (A700 replacement), and it will be in the $1500.00 to $1800.00 range. maybe they will not have two cameras as close as the D300/D700 pair, but they will be closer then the 7D/5Dmkii pair.

As for Pentax, I just cannot see them releasing a FF in 2010. They need to get the 645D out in 2010, and I expect that will take everything they have. Near the end of 2010 I expect they will anounce the K-7 replacement. At Photokina I bet. Maybe they will have a working D645, the K-8, and a K-LX (ff) mockup in a glass box. I doubt anyone will be able to buy a Pentax FF before late 2011. We will see the D645, and the replacements for the K-x, the K-7 before we see a FF pentax. Three releases in one year is allot for Pentax. No way they get in the FF as a fourth.

So Pentax FF in 2010? I say no chance.
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