[juu]

I'll just use a generic "when consumers would start avoiding DSLRs".

Can you put a number on that? It can be bigger than in a.

2. [..] Besides, if they would delay it further they will lose this opportunity forever - their reputation being ruined in the process.

Yeah, that's true.

So please chose between the two: K-7's of K-x's replacement?

Well, I already said that I think they can still provide replacements for both, just perhaps with slightly less features.

Much of the R&D effort besides specific camera form/ergonomics and OVF is after all shared with the EVIL platform. So if they procure better sensor and related electronics for the EVIL they can put in in the K-8/K-z as well. Likewise for live-view, CDAF, video, etc.

3. No, no, no. Say clearly if you want new K-mount lenses (including WR/better SDM/whatever improvements over the current products), or they could use the limited resources they have to make EVIL lenses.

I would guess the optical engineers on staff are separate from whoever works on SDM/etc.

So the optical engineers could focus on new small EVIL pancake lenses, while the other parts of the team fix SDM and keep on WR-ing and rebadging k-mount lenses.

They did it before with Tamron lenses, they could do it with Tokina lenses that Hoya owns.

4. Still, people could see that move as Pentax abandoning the K-mount.

People could see Pentax being late to EVIL as yet another move towards irrelevance. What is worse?

5. True. Should we ignore them? I'd say, let's ignore instead the EVIL fans. After all, people always complain on the Internet

I think they should ignore both and work on what has the best chance of bringing in money in the long term.

[johnmflores]

1. How much market share could Pentax steal from Panasonic, assuming they would launch an EVIL?
a. 100%
b. ~50%
c. ~25%
d. less than 10%

In a mature market the only way to enter is to steal from existing competitors. But this is not a mature market. On the contrary, it's a young market and has exhibited signs of growth. That's easy to say in the first year of lots of markets - let's see what year 2 brings.

Secondly, Panasonic is not the only entrant in the market. Olympus is there, Ricoh is there in a manner of speaking with their GXR, and Samsung will be there soon. Who else will join the fray this year? Probably not Nikon or Canon - market leaders rarely play a role in launching markets that threaten or disrupt their current position, but that's not to say that it never happens - look at Toyota and hybrids.

2. What camera should Pentax delay, in order to launch an EVIL camera?
a. The K-7 replacement
b. The K-x replacement
c. Both

Pentax appears to have the capacity to introduce two bodies per year. They also typically have 3 or more bodies in the sales channels at any given time, essentially the last bodies that were in production. The new bodies fill gaps in the marketplace that the previous bodies did not cover.

The anticipated release of the 645D will do just that, fill a spot above the K7. Both the K7 and K-x are less than a year old, so I don't think they will replace them in 2010. Rather, if they do release another camera, it will attempt to fill a gap - the question is, "what gap?" What are the possibilities?

A. Below K-x
Maybe an EVIL here? This would be interesting, since existing EVILs are positioned just a step above.

B. Between K-x and K-7
This could be a replacement of the beloved K200d. Think of it as either a weather-sealed K-x or a de-contented K-7. This could also be an EVIL, competing against the Oly Pens and the Pannys. The question I have is, with the K-x kits around $550 and the K7 kits around $1100 and dropping, is there enough space here to slot another camera? And if there is, would a dSLR or EVIL be more successful?

3. Do you think the K-mount lens range is complete?
a. Yes, please stop introducing new K-mount lenses in order to be able to make a bare minimum for an EVIL
b. No, there are gaps - a longer telephoto, a longer macro, MkII versions of some lenses (e.g. 16-50)...

This boils down to...how big do you think the EVIL market will be? If the answer is NOT TOO BIG, IT REMAIN A NICHE, then maybe it doesn't make sense. But if the answer is HUGE, then maybe it makes sense to jump in now and stake out some market share before Canikon move in.

In contrast, it's probably easier to project sales for any new K-mount lens, so Pentax is struggling between a known quantity vs. an unknown. Another point is that the market for new K-mount lenses will be limited to the existing Pentax base of owners. Pentax will not increase their market share appreciably with new lenses. Like the K-x an EVIL Pentax has the potential to draw new people to the brand. I believe that a bigger base will make Pentax more financially stable than filling in gaps in the lens lineup.

4. How many "K-mount is doomed! It will disappear into oblivion" threads per day will be started, on internet forums, if Pentax will go EVIL?
a. 100
b. 1000
c. lots

You, Lithos, Wheatfield. Three. Anyone else?

5. How many people would complain they built the EVIL and not a FF?
a. all pentaxian FF fans
b. all pentaxian FF fans, but not only
c. all but the EVIL fans

Pentax FF fans whose needs won't be met by the 645D. Considering that Pentax has low single-digit market share, and only a percentage of those are clamoring for FF, it's not that many. It's an inordinate percentage on fan boards like this, but overall it's not much. Besides, a FF Pentax is not going to grow market share. Yes, it may prevent defection, but your not going to get brand switchers in significant quantities. Look at the recent fortunes of Panasonic vs. Sony. Sony introduced not one but two full-frame cameras within a 12 month period. Panasonic introduces two EVILs. Which cameras are consistently in the Amazon top 25?

[Kunzite]

Can you put a number on that? It can be bigger than in a.

As I said, it's not that easy. Pentax could "never" make an EVIL, if they could find a niche on which to sell their DSLRs.
If you really want a number, well, I'll say 51%.

Well, I already said that I think they can still provide replacements for both, just perhaps with slightly less features.

Sacrificing DSLRs for your EVIL?
Pentax needs to keep rolling successful products, so no, cutting corners Sony-style would be a terrible mistake.

Much of the R&D effort besides specific camera form/ergonomics and OVF is after all shared with the EVIL platform. So if they procure better sensor and related electronics for the EVIL they can put in in the K-8/K-z as well. Likewise for live-view, CDAF, video, etc.

The effort is in any case not less than for a new DSLR.

I would guess the optical engineers on staff are separate from whoever works on SDM/etc.

New EVIL lenses (absolutely needed, let's say at least 3 to start with start) means less K-mount lenses. What you're saying would make sense if we would talk about designing the optics for the EVIL lenses, while not putting them into production - obviously, that's not the case. An EVIL lens would still have a barrel, SDM motor and so on; it would need to work really well with CDAF; it would need testing, production facilities, marketing... things will only start with the optical design.
In other words, putting an EVIL lens on the market means at least as much effort as putting a K-mount lens on the market.
And about rebadging K-mount lenses instead of having their own designs, bad, bad idea. Why buying Pentax, if you'll have to use disguised Tamrons? I want Limiteds. I want excellent optic, like on the 60-250. Otherwise, why not going Nikon and use Nikkors and Tamrons?

People could see Pentax being late to EVIL as yet another move towards irrelevance. What is worse?

Killing themselves just to have your EVIL.

johnmflores, Panasonic is the competitor to beat, IMO - since they are by far the most successful m4/3 brand (at least in Japan). Pentax is competing just fine, using DSLR products; you're saying they should compete using EVILs, i.e. playing Panasonic's game.
The K-7 and K-x replacement are designed to, well, replace the K-7/K-x, so there will be no conflict. I'd say K-7 will be replaced by Photokina by a new model, and that I'll buy one (I have no inside info but I still know I want it ).
645D is on a different league, it doesn't make any sense to include it in order to "justify" keeping the K-7 in production.

I don't get you, folks. If you want an EVIL, why not buy a Panasonic? And if you just want Pentax to survive... wait, you don't want that, since you're suggesting they should cancel/delay their current plans (ones with some degree of success) and instead, do something else

[Art Vandelay II]

Pentax FF fans whose needs won't be met by the 645D. Considering that Pentax has low single-digit market share, and only a percentage of those are clamoring for FF, it's not that many. It's an inordinate percentage on fan boards like this, but overall it's not much. Besides, a FF Pentax is not going to grow market share. Yes, it may prevent defection, but your not going to get brand switchers in significant quantities. Look at the recent fortunes of Panasonic vs. Sony. Sony introduced not one but two full-frame cameras within a 12 month period. Panasonic introduces two EVILs. Which cameras are consistently in the Amazon top 25?

Oddly enough I've pretty much decided I'm going either FF or EVIL for my next body. APS-C doesn't offer enough of an IQ bonus over m4/3's to put up with the bulk. If I'm going to carry the extra bulk of a DSLR I want a large view finder and higher IQ to go with it. Of course Pentax could make me reconsider APS-C if they put a 1.2x or greater viewfinder in their K7 replacement. However, since not many people seem to care about view finder size these days I don't think it will happen. The only cruddy part is if I go FF I'd probably have to go with the Sony since the A850 is my favorite current FF camera. But even it's still not the perfect camera for me (too big), so that means I'll most likely be looking for another EVIL in a few months.

[Wheatfield]

Oddly enough I've pretty much decided I'm going either FF or EVIL for my next body. APS-C doesn't offer enough of an IQ bonus over m4/3's to put up with the bulk.

I have a friend with a 7d and another with a D300 that disagree with you on that one.
Both like their 4/3 Panasonics for the size, IQ is OK (but only OK) compared to what they are using as their main cameras up to about ISO 800, and after that, there is no comparison.
Of course these are very discerning photographers.
YMMV.
The fact is, there is just no replacement for real estate in sensors, and anything that makes a small sensor better will make a larger sensor better as well.

[Art Vandelay II]

I don't get you, folks. If you want an EVIL, why not buy a Panasonic? And if you just want Pentax to survive... wait, you don't want that, since you're suggesting they should cancel/delay their current plans (ones with some degree of success) and instead, do something else

The reason pretty much anyone is on this board is because they are fans of Pentax. I learned photography on a Pentax K1000 in college 13 years ago and I've had a soft spot for Pentax ever since. When I finally bought my first DSLR a few years back I went with Pentax. Call it brand loyalty if you will. On top of that I sincerely believe entry level DSLR's are a dead end street. Sure, we are driving fast down that road now, but after Panasonic, Olympus, or Samsung gets a $500 EVIL on the shelves at best buy right next to entry level DSLR's I truly think most consumers will chose it over a loud and bulkier DSLR. I think EVIL's will eventually take over the bulk of entry level sales in the coming years, and since entry level cameras are always the best selling cameras I simply don't want Pentax to miss out on what I think is the future. I'd like to keep on using Pentax products for another 13 years+ if possible.

[Art Vandelay II]

I have a friend with a 7d and another with a D300 that disagree with you on that one.
Both like their 4/3 Panasonics for the size, IQ is OK (but only OK) compared to what they are using as their main cameras up to about ISO 800

I'd estimate about 95% of pics I take are done under ISO800 (when the light gets bad I usually put the camera away and pick up a beer ). Of course if I had a Nikon D3s sensor in a K7 body that could change my whole mindset all together and I'd regularly go up to ISO12,800 to keep the shutter speeds from never dipping below 1/500th or so. I found my E-P1 to be excellent at ISO800, and perfectly usable at ISO1600. From samples I've seen of the 7D and D300 I'd put them right in that same ballpark. At best one stop better...and can survive without an extra stop.

[Kunzite]

The reason pretty much anyone is on this board is because they are fans of Pentax.

and their worst enemies. Never satisfied with that they make, every time wanting something else

An older post:
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/520089-post60.html
“Creating new lenses mount like NX system needs as huge power as a Full-frame DSLR system. If we can not comprehend that the new system is superior to K mount system in all aspects, we never enter the mirror-less category.” - Mr. Taku Kawauchi, Pentax (translated by kimpira, original on dc.watch.impress.co.jp)

[Art Vandelay II]

and their worst enemies. Never satisfied with that they make

At this point it's quite the opposite for me actually. As far as APS-C DSLR's go I really don't see a need to improve either the K-7 or K-x for quite a while, Photokina at the very earliest. And even then I don't expect them to change much. While I'd like a K-7 with a giant view finder I know that wont happen. So realistically all I expect on the next upgrade will be a better image sensor in the K-7, and perhaps a higher res LCD on the K-x. Then after that any upgrades will be even more minor.

Lets face facts, there is very little left to improve on DSLR's. They do their jobs extremely well. Sooner or later it's just going to be a matter of putting a new image sensor in whenever they develop a better one. I think Nikon is already at that phase: see D300s and D3s. Canon has also reached that stage with the 1Ds and 7D. The 7D is an amazingly good camera. Better IQ is really the only thing worth upgrading next time.

So I think it's time to explore new product lines. Drop their awful P&S line up and invest that time and money into and EVIL system (join m4/3's if it were up to me). Leave the K-7 as is just put the K-x's image sensor in it for Photokina. Then explore full frame as a true upgrade to the K-7. The market needs a small full frame DSLR. And Canikon doesn't do small.

[Kunzite]

No, it's not the opposite for you - since you're saying they should support a competing format.

I expect the K-7 to be replaced around Photokina, but I hope they won't use the K-x sensor.

[Art Vandelay II]

No, it's not the opposite for you - since you're saying they should support a competing format.

How would it be a competing format if they join the m4/3's consortium? The reason I say join them is because that would be the easiest and cheapest route to take to create an EVIL. There would be no R&D time needed for a new mount, and they'd not only have their current users but I'm sure some of Panasonic's and Olympus' users would give Pentax a try since they can use their current lenses. It would be like what the K-mount was 30 years ago when more than one manufacturer actually used it.

Edit: Forgot one thing:

If we can not comprehend that the new system is superior to K mount system in all aspects, we never enter the mirror-less category.” - Mr. Taku Kawauchi

I wonder if he thought digital could be superior to film 15 years ago after seeing the first half megapixel digital cameras. To me that's a scary quote. That sounds like someone old and set in their ways. Plus, he doesn't understand that mirrorless cameras don't have to be superior in ALL aspects. They just have to be good enough. Sounds like Pentax will get steam rolled by EVIL's due to their lack of vision if he has the final say.

[Samsungian]

Pentax sensor is 1.5x, m4/3 is 2x sensor

If Pentax joins the m4/3 they'll need newly designed glass for m4/3.

I'd rather see pentax offer full frame K Mount but that ain't gonna happen either.

645D is next up at somepoint this year.

Now 1-19-10 means 345 days to go till 2011.

I think we'll get some lovely painted K-7 to spike the current model's sales at a higher price point. Once K-7 sells for $699 or less will people pay an additional $600 for a colored version of same K-7 camera? Painting K-7 offers an obvious upgrade path for all the colored K-x owners who are new to Pentax System. Pentax production line is already geared up for painting colored parts so... Why Not???

How would it be a competing format if they join the m4/3's consortium? The reason I say join them is because that would be the easiest and cheapest route to take to create an EVIL. There would be no R&D time needed for a new mount, and they'd not only have their current users but I'm sure some of Panasonic's and Olympus' users would give Pentax a try since they can use their current lenses. It would be like what the K-mount was 30 years ago when more than one manufacturer actually used it.

[Kunzite]

Because m4/3 (4/3 as well) is competing with the K-mount. Btw, their current users (me included) will not migrate to m4/3 just because you say so; by this they would abandon their current users, instead of making them happy.
Forgetting about their users for the hope than some Pana/Oly users would "give Pentax a try"; you really want to see them dead, aren't you?

[Art Vandelay II]

Pentax sensor is 1.5x, m4/3 is 2x sensor

If Pentax joins the m4/3 they'll need newly designed glass for m4/3.

I know, I've owned both, and they will have to design new glass no matter what EVIL format that choose (if any). So I'd just as soon them choose m4/3's since I think it is the best size (and shape) for these kinds of cameras.

[lurchlarson]

If Amazon sales can be counted as an indicator for how well mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras sell, the Panasonic GF-1 is #12 on the list. That is the highest ranking camera on Amazon of that type.