Grouping wise, Pentax has done pretty well, despite only having two current models. And if we look at announcement dates, there seems to be a 9 to 15 month gap between replacement models:
K-x (Sep 09), 12 months, K-m (Sep 08), 9 months, K200D (Jan 08), 18 months K100D, (May 06)
K-7 (May 09), 15 months, K20D (Jan 08), 15 months, K10D (Sep 06)
It'd make little sense to replace the K-x at this point in time. Sure, Canon has just unleased the 550D, but you'd have to be a fool (or a 550D reviewer) to see the K-x as the natural competitor to that camera, as you can get the K-7 for pretty much the same money. Besides, Canon also has the 1000D in the K-x's price segment, AND they're keeping the 500D on the market.
A K-7 replacement makes more sense. Photokina 2010 (September) would fit nicely with a K-7 replacement. It'd make sense to upgrade their semi-pro body anyway.
There are rumours that Sony's new Exmor revision will be 1080p compatible, and with a bit of luck, it'll be 1080p@50/60. 14 to 18 Mpixels will be good. Unlike Nikon, I don't think Pentax has the clout to pull off a reduced number of pixels. They don't have the backing of sales people, meaning that it'll lose out in the stores, if they reuse the K-x's sensor. Obviously an improvement in dynamic range and high ISO performance will be a must as well for the same reasons.
It'd be nice if they could improve their JPEG engine, but that tends to be a very slow progression in the Pentax line-up.
They could keep the K-7 body easily enough. The 7D pretty much reused the 50D's body, and there are very few things to complain about the K-7 body. It has pretty much the best seals on the market as it is. Reusing the body means we get to keep the D-BG4. Adding support for SDXC is pretty much a must though.
Would be neat if they included the mirror upgrade from the K-7 Limited Silver, but that's hardly a requirement.
Doing it this way would make the replacement camera an evolution and not particularly expensive either. A lot of R&D has been sunk into the K-7 body, accessories and electronics, and if they're only upgrading the sensor and adding SDXC support, it'll make a lot of sense economically. If possible dump some more memory into the thing, so we can get longer bursts.
Timing-wise a September announcement would also fit nicely with a Christmas shopping release. They could probably introduce this kind of replacement at something like a hundred dollars more than the current K-7. Do that and they be going at the throat of Canon's 7D.
Something similar could be done for the K-x. Time-wise a replacement fits nicely with Photokina as well. Minor upgrades would make sense. Keep the sensor - it's a great hit. Add SDXC, battery grip, weather seals and better JPEG engine. More memory for this one as well, please. These are minor updates, and they could probably reintroduce this at the original cost of the K-x. Keep the colour selection, and possibly extend it to the DA-L lenses as well.
As it stands Pentax already has the best weather sealed camera on the market, and it'd make a lot of sense if they extended this to their entire line-up. They already have kit WR-lenses. And if they have a weather sealed entry-level camera as good at the K-x, they could probably sell even more of their WR and DA* lenses as well.
But ... who knows?
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