Originally posted by Corros People, stop comparing dSLR and EVIL cameras. They are different for different people. They exist on side of each other.
I think you're mistaken on this count. Or rather, I think you're right, but that mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras will have a huge effect on the dSLR market which cannot be dismissed.
A large portion of the current dSLR boom consists of these camps:
- people who like their point & shoot cameras but want more flexibility and better image quality
- people with disposable income who must have a dSLR because it's clearly the better, cooler, more desirable thing
As a parent of young kids in relatively affluent area, I see a whole lot of people who think, even to themselves, that they are in group #1 when clearly they are actually in group #2. It's like the competition for the best urban stroller. Mind you, since we're completely car-free, I see the value in having a solid stroller, just like I see the value in having a dSLR. It's just that most people with either one of these
might actually be better served with something else.
Anyway, sorry, got carried away there on my tangent.
The point is, the first of the groups is very well served by the mirrorless interchangeable lens camera. And that's a huge, huge group — 95% of Flickr users, say. A lot of these users are happy enough going to dSLRs once they climb the learning curve, but it's not really what they're looking for.
And the second group is basically a slave to trends and marketing and what's hip on the gadget blogs. (It's no accident that full-frame gets so much love: it's an easy way to seem elite, without having to actually do any work.)
Put together, these groups
basically are the mass market.
I see the same thing happening with computers as the iPad and Android take over — most people don't actually need a general-purpose computer. They just want to run some apps, play some games, edit some photos, get some work done.
In both cases, the serious, flexible tools — awesome entry-level and mid-range dSLRs, and PCs (including current Macs) — are affordable because they happen to be the same thing that can be sold to the mass market.
If the mass market moves on, those products become a niche. Right now, even the niche products (ahem, Pentax) are courting that mass market. But if there's no sales to speak of there, there's both good and bad: good, products designed for photographers, not fashion; bad, no room for low-priced product lines.