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12-04-2011, 07:41 AM   #1591
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
No doubt. But not only will those fast lenses be darker than you'd expect, as DxO says, but most 1.2's also perform their worst, resolution wise, wide open.
Very true, but what that also means is these lenses are already acceptably sharp by 1.8, where as most of the 1.8 max aperture lenses don't become sharp until about 2.4 or 2.8.

12-04-2011, 08:49 AM   #1592
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QuoteOriginally posted by Macario Quote
I would say 99%
I would say 75%, but then again, 47.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
12-04-2011, 09:09 AM   #1593
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clinton Quote
I would say 75%, but then again, 47.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
A Ford Minivan probably covers 99% of the potential transport & freight needs of 99% of drivers. Why would anyone ask for anything else?
12-04-2011, 09:11 AM   #1594
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clinton Quote
I would say 75%, but then again, 47.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
I'm pretty sure closer to 63.2% of statistics are made up on the spot


QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
A Ford Minivan probably covers 99% of the potential transport & freight needs of 99% of drivers. Why would anyone ask for anything else?
Because my wife has expressly forbidden the purchase of a mini-van (not that I necessarily want to drive one )

But your point is a good one.

12-04-2011, 09:46 AM   #1595
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
A Ford Minivan probably covers 99% of the potential transport & freight needs of 99% of drivers. Why would anyone ask for anything else?
Because people buy on "want" instead of "need". There's nothing wrong with that...but the two are not the same.
12-04-2011, 11:28 AM   #1596
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
Because people buy on "want" instead of "need". There's nothing wrong with that...but the two are not the same.
My point exactly.

"You don't need FF, aps-c covers 99% of potentialities" is a false argument, akin to saying that no-one who isn't a pro racer needs higher performing cars. Its about want, about the potential to upgrade when ready while retaining the use of your lenses.


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Last edited by jsherman999; 12-04-2011 at 11:36 AM.
12-04-2011, 11:50 AM   #1597
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I think it is good that people who don't need FF will shell out $3,000 for a body + another $5,000 for a couple of good FF lenses. They create demand and that creates competition for Canon/Nikon/Sony to meet that demand. If only the people that "needed" FF bought them the market would not be big enough to justify more than one company making them.

The question is: Is the market for FF big enough for Pentax to join in and turn a profit. Pentax might be better served to develop the 645D system and get the price of the body down to $6,000 or $7,000.
12-04-2011, 11:58 AM   #1598
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QuoteOriginally posted by dgaies Quote
...
Because my wife has expressly forbidden the purchase of a mini-van (not that I necessarily want to drive one )

But your point is a good one.


My wife was indifferent either way but I was always vehemently against getting a minivan, ever. It represented (to me) a drop in driving performance, an aknowlegement of domesticity, etc, etc.

Then we rented one on a trip. My mind changed.

Driving performance was better than I expected, gas mileage isn't bad, it can carry almost literally anything with seats folded, can carry everyone I ever want to carry, and loading/unloading kids with those sliding doors is effortless.

Maybe when I retire I'll get something sporty again, but for now we're cruising large



(above: 20mm f2.8D on D700, crop for shape)

12-04-2011, 11:58 AM   #1599
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
I think it is good that people who don't need FF will shell out $3,000 for a body + another $5,000 for a couple of good FF lenses. They create demand and that creates competition for Canon/Nikon/Sony to meet that demand. If only the people that "needed" FF bought them the market would not be big enough to justify more than one company making them.

The question is: Is the market for FF big enough for Pentax to join in and turn a profit. Pentax might be better served to develop the 645D system and get the price of the body down to $6,000 or $7,000.
oh wait, more people need a medium format than a full-frame? so how big is the market for 645D and how many would be willing to shell or invest $9,000 for a body andf a few more thousands for the lenses?
12-04-2011, 12:10 PM - 1 Like   #1600
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
The question is: Is the market for FF big enough for Pentax to join in and turn a profit. Pentax might be better served to develop the 645D system and get the price of the body down to $6,000 or $7,000.
Of course the market is big enough; the key is to realize that the market for Pentax FF isn't the same market as C/N/S. If Pentax chose to sell 100,000 units of a FF body, I bet only 10 would be picked up by full time pro C/N/S shooters.

And while I love the idea of a cheaper 645D, that's a whole 'lotta mirror to slap around at anything faster than it does already, so frame rates are going to suck. And probably no video capability, so no carving out a 5Dii /1Dx/C300 style pro video niche.

What does all this mean to me, and my purchasing?

Pentax, by being handed around like a $2 whore, has basically screwed itself by splitting it's own market:

Full-Frame-Noser: "I should wait till early 2012, because I think Pentax will release a FF body".

MF-Noser: "I said I'd buy the 645D when it came out, but it's performance is soooo last year, I should wait for the 645D-jr in stormtrooper white."

Full-Frame-Noser: "Hmm.... that big sensor of a 645D is really appealing, even if they release a FF, maybe I should wait till they release the next 645, so I can compare."

MF-Noser: "Boy, $8k is really a lot to pay. If the next 645 is only $6k, well, that's the same as a pro-spec FF, but FF will have a faster frame rate, and maybe some extra toys like video.... hmmm..."

Full-Frame Noser: "I'm confused."

MF-Noser: "Me too."

Full Frame Noser: "The D800 sure looks nice."

MF-Noser: "But the 1Dx is soooo fasssst."

Noser: "Sigh. I guess I'll keep shooting the K20D."
12-04-2011, 12:13 PM   #1601
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
I think it is good that people who don't need FF will shell out $3,000 for a body + another $5,000 for a couple of good FF lenses. They create demand and that creates competition for Canon/Nikon/Sony to meet that demand. If only the people that "needed" FF bought them the market would not be big enough to justify more than one company making them.
Right. Not enough 'pros' out there to cover the current sales of the D3s alone, according to TH. It's really almost all enthusiasts.

(and FWIW I paid a lot less than that $8000 you mention for my FF kit.)

QuoteQuote:
The question is: Is the market for FF big enough for Pentax to join in and turn a profit. Pentax might be better served to develop the 645D system and get the price of the body down to $6,000 or $7,000.
The entire ILC market is expanding. China alone, in the next 10 years, could come close to doubling the market as their economy ramps up. They don't need to come close to European or US per-capita income to do it - their sheer numbers guarantee a viable market mixed in there as the balloon expands.

Re 645D - I don't think so. It's a specialty camera, with few (and very expensive) lenses. It's not really meant to compete with general purpose DSLRs. I think bringing it's price down to $6K will only shrink margins without significantly expanding sales. (I could be wrong, but I just think it's unwise to bet too much $ on the 645D.)


.

Last edited by jsherman999; 12-04-2011 at 12:33 PM.
12-04-2011, 12:21 PM - 1 Like   #1602
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
A Ford Minivan probably covers 99% of the potential transport & freight needs of 99% of drivers. Why would anyone ask for anything else?
I did such a thing once, making a list of what use and needs I had for my first car.



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This was my first owned car and it really did everything I needed. Suzuki Super Carry pick Up. Getting cheap around having spare money to do thing at arrival. Drove 83.000 km with it around Europe.
12-04-2011, 12:49 PM   #1603
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
Because people buy on "want" instead of "need". There's nothing wrong with that...but the two are not the same.
Excactly, but you don't hear them complain that a brand needs to release a type of car otherwise they will be doomed (ok, maybe GM is an exception on this)
12-04-2011, 12:56 PM   #1604
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144 likes, 1604 posts and 107 pages 79231 views. Wow. If this translated into actual sales Ricoh would surpass canon
12-04-2011, 01:01 PM   #1605
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
oh wait, more people need a medium format than a full-frame? so how big is the market for 645D and how many would be willing to shell or invest $9,000 for a body andf a few more thousands for the lenses?
First off the point is to get the body down to $6,000-$7,000. At that price point Pentax has a camera that appeals to both FF and MF markets. The the answer to your question is "Bigger than the FF or the MF markets separately".
Second - Pentax has the only MF in this price point. Unique positions are a good thing.
Third - There are already 3 other manufacturers producing sub-$3,000 FF bodies.

Leave the K-r line at APS-C to compete against the Rebels and what ever Nikon has at that point.
Move the K-5 line to ASP-H to compete with APS-C bodies like the Canon 7D and Nikon 300.
Develop the 645D line as your professional system to compete with FF bodies. Price point would have to be in the $6,000 range.

I still use by Contax 645 for B&W work and it is still my favorite camera to work with. The wedding/portrait and landscape market would be all over a 645D if it was priced right. Pentax needs a couple of really killer lenses for they system. The next 645D will have a CMOS sensor with HD Video. A 40MP 645D with a modern Sony or Samsung sensor would be amazing. The 645D and K-5 share probably 80% of the same technology. As long as Pentax can keep spread out its R&D costs across multiple bodies it can be competitive.

There is probably room for 2 APS-C bodies and maybe an EVIL APS-C, but I don't think Pentax needs to be like Canon/Nikon/Sony and have 4-5 APS-C options.
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