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01-19-2012, 03:29 AM   #2191
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QuoteOriginally posted by mclarenman01 Quote
I can see where you are coming from Clavius. If Pentax were to release a cheap FF though they would need to release 2 bodies. The affordable model and the fully featured professional model.

For me at least, if they only offered a stripped down affordable model I wouldn't be interested. I want a cutting edge fully featured model not an K-r with a bigger sensor.
I know, the current userbase is already into Pentax. I myself would buy a full featured "FF K5" in a heartbeat. I was purely outlining what would be a good strategy for Pentax as a company, not my own preference. There's a lot of NEW customers out there that would go for a "FF K-R" very easily. But I would prefer the full featured version myself too.

Of course, I agree fully that it would be magically brilliant if Pentax would release the "FF KR", the "FF K5", and a new FF lens lineup in one go. Maybe that's why it's taking them a bit longer then we're all hoping for?

01-19-2012, 04:56 AM   #2192
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Camera bodies come and go with a 1 - 3 year regularity. Camera lenses are for life. Makes no sense then to invest heavily into 'the best, newest' body, as one would then be tied into the endless upgrade system. The only thing that matters is the sensor, the quality of the viewfinder (OVF or EVF), and the ability of the camera body to utilize legacy lenses. Everything else is superfluous. Whether Pentax/Ricoh follow that philosophy I doubt very much, as they seem to design and build nowadays to a price-point, and not to a standard. And for, I should add, the Far Eastern market.
01-19-2012, 05:41 AM   #2193
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fontan Quote
Well, if you are willing to shell out lots of money for FF, it makes no sense to slap on cheap lenses. You might as well stick with aps-c and spend that few grand on nice lenses. This is money better spent.
It makes no sense for Pentax to put out a FF body and have customers use cheap, old glass instead of buying new, modern FF glass.

If you're going to make the FF argument as a business case for Pentax, make sure there's some revenues!
01-19-2012, 06:59 AM   #2194
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
However, there's a market wide open, and NOBODY is currently looking ater that. People who want FF, but can't because the prices are just to high. Not the pro's, but the prosumers. That will pull a lot of people away from Canikon. People that are now forced to stay with aps-c, because of the high prices.

Introducting a affordable Pentax FF, with a new FF lenslineup now will start people going to Pentax again. It may even get some attention from starting pro's. Later, next year, Pentax could release a second, superior, FF body.
Pentax sources sensors from Sony. they're the only game in town. An FF sensor in a small run probably sits at $6-800 per unit.

Build on that an to get a camera under $2,000 (as Sony tried with the A850) and you'll need to drop features:

- No 100% OVF. Go to 92%.
- Slow FPS.
- Last generation AF because the PDAF array is more expensive if it is larger and has more x points.
- 1 SD card slot. And a last gen, slower processor.
- No WR. Adds to assembly and material costs, and warranty expectations.
- No video.
- Fewer dedicated "pro" controls. Every control interface adds assembly and sourcing costs.
- No top LCD.

And so on.

And the price will still be about $1,500, sitting across from an APS-C K-5 successor at about the same cost.

Which one will the consumer purchase?

All a D700 is is a D300 with an FF sensor. The moment people can afford to spend $1,500 on a body two things happen. One, they want all the pro features for that price point. And two, they are much more willing (and often able) to spend a premium on a D700 at $2,400. That's the FF premium.

This market philosophy applies to most consumer categories, like Dyson vacuums, Apple MacBook Airs, and so on. Once a certain threshold is reached, it's all in or nothing for most consumers willing to part with a significant amount of discretionary spending on a consumer product. A stripped down FF with far fewer features than a similar priced APS-C would gather dust on store shelves and kill Pentax. Sony tried with the A850 and it was in production less than a year.

And Sony owns the FF sensor fab!

01-19-2012, 07:27 AM   #2195
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Thin-air 'facts' are fun!

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Pentax sources sensors from Sony. they're the only game in town. An FF sensor in a small run probably sits at $6-800 per unit.

Build on that an to get a camera under $2,000 (as Sony tried with the A850) and you'll need to drop features:

- No 100% OVF. Go to 92%.
- Slow FPS.
- Last generation AF because the PDAF array is more expensive if it is larger and has more x points.
- 1 SD card slot. And a last gen, slower processor.
- No WR. Adds to assembly and material costs, and warranty expectations.
- No video.
- Fewer dedicated "pro" controls. Every control interface adds assembly and sourcing costs.
- No top LCD.

And so on.

And the price will still be about $1,500, sitting across from an APS-C K-5 successor at about the same cost.

Which one will the consumer purchase?

All a D700 is is a D300 with an FF sensor. The moment people can afford to spend $1,500 on a body two things happen. One, they want all the pro features for that price point. And two, they are much more willing (and often able) to spend a premium on a D700 at $2,400. That's the FF premium.

This market philosophy applies to most consumer categories, like Dyson vacuums, Apple MacBook Airs, and so on. Once a certain threshold is reached, it's all in or nothing for most consumers willing to part with a significant amount of discretionary spending on a consumer product. A stripped down FF with far fewer features than a similar priced APS-C would gather dust on store shelves and kill Pentax. Sony tried with the A850 and it was in production less than a year.

And Sony owns the FF sensor fab!
.


I can make any case I want if I pull numbers and imaginary restrictions out of the air and present them as fact also! ^^

An affordable FF Pentax body makes a lot of sense. Sony's attempt at doing so in 2008 with 2007 tech showed some well-documented missteps. Ricoh does not need to make the same mistakes in 2012-2013.

CaNikon will not make their two mid-tier bodies less expensive, because they don't have to, not because they can't. I think the question's going to be: should Ricoh enter this FF mid-tier in DSLR, mirrorless, or some hybrid/other way?

(where's that dead horse? )
.
01-19-2012, 07:32 AM   #2196
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
(as Sony tried with the A850)
As Sony tried and failed with the A850.
01-19-2012, 08:11 AM   #2197
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"My" Pentax KF-10

QuoteOriginally posted by markku55 Quote
Which price level is affordable, USD 2500 ...?
I'll make a shot, outlining how a full frame Pentax should look IMHO.

I'll collect feed-back and may write a blog article outlining a camera which may create enough interest. Here we go:

  1. I name it Pentax KF-10 to make clear it is a first entry in a series of full frame K mount cameras.
  2. MSRP about K-5 + 50%, i.e., about $2250.
    This is (inflation considered) about the price of the *ist-D when it launched and is affordable to grown-up enthusiasts. Moreover, it is enough budget to create an exciting camera. The sensor alone should be a lot less than 10% the MSRP so it should be doable.
  3. Feature set alike K-5:
    • ~7 fps, alloy body, weather-sealed, damped shutter, 100% VF (optical, yes!, mirror, yes!).
    • Size: 143mm (W) x 107mm (H) x 73mm (D)
      which is the size of the K-5 with absolute padding added for the bigger sensor area; there is no need to scale anything linearly except for the pentaprism size (I added 2mm to the prism height).
    • Weight: 850g (with a solid alloy body).
    • Vertical grip, tethering to Lightroom, new flash as options.
    • SR like the K-5, less affected by shock though;
      the SR or image circle doesn't need any extra padding, the current 2mm per side are more than enough, 1mm would suffice actually (not assumed bot feasible).
    • 5µm pitch which makes the camera 35MP; same Sony tech as K-5's sensor, an expected product from Sony Microelectronics in 2012.
    • Native ISO 80/100, boosting DR to a bold 15EV (DxO).
    • DA (APSC) crop mode always available and always optional with any lens, only default switches with a DA lens attached. DA crop mode (16MP) and HD crop mode (2MP) in video.
    • Manual video controls with manual audio control.
    • optional EVF attached to hot shoe, with a short HDMI connector supporting 3rd party solutions. Mostly for video work.
    • AF module like K-5 (with better light color sensor) but with a more powerful center sensor: f/2.8 cross type and smaller area.
    • 3D tracking in AF module requires more AF points and new knowledge and should be a secondary thought. AF accuracy should remain the main concern.
  4. Lenses:
    • The FA Limiteds (and some DA Limiteds and DA*60-250) and the DFA100, DA*55, DA*200/300 make a solid start.
    • Add a good! $500 FA* 24-75/4 lens at launch usable as a "kit" lens.
    • Add two wide angle lenses.
    • Add an excellent $1000 FA*70-200/4 like Canon.
    • Add the more expensive fast 24-70/2.8 and 70-200/2.8 afterwards as f/2.8 zoom on full frame with modern sensors are less frequently required.
    • Complete with longer tele, fish eye, TC etc. over time. Esp. make a good AF converter to be used with the Pentax mirrorless.
  5. Market positioning:
    Position as the enthusiast SLR of the future, with APSC becoming bridge and entry-level and moving to mirrorless (but committing continued support for DA lenses). Beat on Canikon for making FF for their followers both expensive and bulky. Make a committment to K-mount glass and that possible electronic VF cameras (mirrorless or not) will fully support it.
That's about it. This is how I see a successful K-5 successor. After all, the K-5 is pretty good and leaves not many reasons to upgrade in the foreseeable future ...


Last edited by falconeye; 01-19-2012 at 08:17 AM.
01-19-2012, 08:17 AM   #2198
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I'll make a shot, outlining how a full frame Pentax should look IMHO.

I'll collect feed-back and may write a blog article outlining a camera which may create enough interest. Here we go:

  1. I name it Pentax KF-10 to make clear it is a first entry in a series of full frame K mount cameras.
  2. MSRP about K-5 + 50%, i.e., about $2250.
    This is (inflation considered) about the price of the *ist-D when it launched and is affordable to grown-up enthusiasts. Moreover, it is enough budget to create an exciting camera. The sensor alone should be a lot less than 10% the MSRP so it should be doable.
  3. Feature set alike K-5:
    • ~7 fps, alloy body, weather-sealed, damped shutter, 100% VF (optical, yes!, mirror, yes!).
    • Size: 143mm (W) x 107mm (H) x 73mm (D)
      which is the size of the K-5 with absolute padding added for the bigger sensor area; there is no need to scale anything linearly except for the pentaprism size (I added 2mm to the prism height).
    • Weight: 850g (with a solid alloy body).
    • Vertical grip, tethering to Lightroom, new flash as options.
    • SR like the K-5, less affected by shock though;
      the SR or image circle doesn't need any extra padding, the current 2mm per side are more than enough, 1mm would suffice actually (not assumed bot feasible).
    • 5µm pitch which makes the camera 35MP; same Sony tech as K-5's sensor, an expected product from Sony Microelectronics in 2012.
    • Native ISO 80/100, boosting DR to a bold 15EV (DxO).
    • DA (APSC) crop mode always available and always optional with any lens, only default switches with a DA lens attached. DA crop mode (16MP) and HD crop mode (2MP) in video.
    • Manual video controls with manual audio control.
    • optional EVF attached to hot shoe, with a short HDMI connector supporting 3rd party solutions. Mostly for video work.
    • AF module like K-5 (with better light color sensor) but with a more powerful center sensor: f/2.8 cross type and smaller area.
    • 3D tracking in AF module requires more AF points and new knowledge and should be a secondary thought. AF accuracy should remain the main concern.
  4. Lenses:
    • The FA Limiteds (and some DA Limiteds and DA*60-250) and the DFA100, DA*55, DA*200/300 make a solid start.
    • Add a good! $500 FA* 24-75/4 lens at launch usable as a "kit" lens.
    • Add two wide angle lenses.
    • Add an excellent $1000 FA*70-200/4 like Canon.
    • Add the more expensive fast 24-70/2.8 and 70-200/2.8 afterwards as f/2.8 zoom on full frame with modern sensors are less frequently required.
    • Complete with longer tele, fish eye, TC etc. over time. Esp. make a good AF converter to be used with the Pentax mirrorless.
  5. Market positioning:
    Position as the enthusiast SLR of the future, with APSC becoming bridge and entry-level and moving to mirrorless. Beat on Canikon for making FF for their followers both expensive and bulky. Make a committment to K-mount glass and that possible electronic VF cameras (mirrorless or not) will fully support it.
That's about it. This is how I see a successful K-5 successor. After all, the K-5 is pretty good and leaves not many reasons to upgrade in the foreseeable future ...
Sounds like a perfect camera to me
01-19-2012, 08:33 AM   #2199
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Pentax sources sensors from Sony. they're the only game in town. An FF sensor in a small run probably sits at $6-800 per unit.

Build on that an to get a camera under $2,000 (as Sony tried with the A850) and you'll need to drop features:
While I agree that sub $2000 asks for (too many) compromises, $2000 - $2500 is more than enough budget.

Your figure of $600 - $800 per sensor would mean a 3x to 5x profit margin to Sony. We all know that Sony is more aggressive than this...

My figure would be closer to $250 which still is almost an order of magnitude more than an APSC sensor costs today.


Moreover, Aristophanes, you always argue like the risk avoiding chief controller asking if the risk is worth the benefit. I dealt with such people during my career. Over time, they more often came to me asking what ideas I would have to create new revenue because they saw that risk avoidance and cost cutting leads them ... to keep the company profitable but disappear

So, Pentax now has to accept taking risks. Ricoh has to prepare financing one or two misses. Because the alternative would be to see Pentax disappear. The market simply is too competitive to be able to survive be remaining a follwoer. We all are Pentaxians because we know that Pentax can lead. But your advice almost always is to follow. Not good ...
01-19-2012, 09:58 AM   #2200
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I don't think there is any way for Pentax to get a FF at $2,000-$2,500 USD. That's what a 5D Mk II runs for, and it has:

-worse build quality
-Canon's economy of scale

Realistically, a Pentax FF would be north of $2,500 and may even sacrifice some features to get there.
01-19-2012, 10:04 AM   #2201
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Sony's failure with FF doesn't mean FF isn't feasible for Pentax. it is obvious that Sony did something wrong along the way that contributed to such failure. but anyway, can we say the 645D a failure? why or why not?
01-19-2012, 10:17 AM   #2202
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
Sony's failure with FF doesn't mean FF isn't feasible for Pentax. it is obvious that Sony did something wrong along the way that contributed to such failure. but anyway, can we say the 645D a failure? why or why not?
What do you think has Sony done wrong?
01-19-2012, 10:27 AM   #2203
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
Sony's failure with FF doesn't mean FF isn't feasible for Pentax. it is obvious that Sony did something wrong along the way that contributed to such failure. but anyway, can we say the 645D a failure? why or why not?
the 645D is a great example of how Pentax could change the market. They grew the Medium format market with this camera and made everyone else sit up and take notice. And they still made monety on it I'm certain (it's the best selling Medium format by a pretty substantial margin. that belonged to Phase before who have now dropped theeir pricing to stop losing the market. A lot of people moved into MF due to the 645D

A Ff like Falk described selling for 22-2400 would also change the market. Unlike the 5d series and the D700 it would have less compromises involved as there would be no higher pro model to protect
Built in SR means all the lenses needing development can also be a lower price so the system itself is more affordable. Sure Canon offeres a $750 70-200 f4.0 but no SR there. it's 1350 for the is variant f4.0. and in the 24-70/75 range they don't have a fixed aperture without is. they have some lower end variable apertures then it's1300+ for a lens all with is. that leaves Pentax plenty of room to develop an affordable system (say $3000 kit with 24-70 f4 and add the 70-200 f4.0 for 3750 as a 2 lens kit or 1000 more later on later on. the high iso performance will let you get away quite happily with f4 to start.
01-19-2012, 10:32 AM   #2204
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
Sony's failure with FF doesn't mean FF isn't feasible for Pentax. it is obvious that Sony did something wrong along the way that contributed to such failure. but anyway, can we say the 645D a failure? why or why not?
Sony's failure means they can't be used as an example of what Pentax should (must?) do I also believe Pentax can do better...
The 645D clearly is a success; but it's also not relevant to a Pentax FF.
01-19-2012, 10:47 AM   #2205
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I'll make a shot, outlining how a full frame Pentax should look IMHO.

I'll collect feed-back and may write a blog article outlining a camera which may create enough interest. Here we go:

  1. I name it Pentax KF-10 to make clear it is a first entry in a series of full frame K mount cameras.
  2. MSRP about K-5 + 50%, i.e., about $2250.
    This is (inflation considered) about the price of the *ist-D when it launched and is affordable to grown-up enthusiasts. Moreover, it is enough budget to create an exciting camera. The sensor alone should be a lot less than 10% the MSRP so it should be doable.
  3. Feature set alike K-5:
    • ~7 fps, alloy body, weather-sealed, damped shutter, 100% VF (optical, yes!, mirror, yes!).
    • Size: 143mm (W) x 107mm (H) x 73mm (D)
      which is the size of the K-5 with absolute padding added for the bigger sensor area; there is no need to scale anything linearly except for the pentaprism size (I added 2mm to the prism height).
    • Weight: 850g (with a solid alloy body).
    • Vertical grip, tethering to Lightroom, new flash as options.
    • SR like the K-5, less affected by shock though;
      the SR or image circle doesn't need any extra padding, the current 2mm per side are more than enough, 1mm would suffice actually (not assumed bot feasible).
    • 5µm pitch which makes the camera 35MP; same Sony tech as K-5's sensor, an expected product from Sony Microelectronics in 2012.
    • Native ISO 80/100, boosting DR to a bold 15EV (DxO).
    • DA (APSC) crop mode always available and always optional with any lens, only default switches with a DA lens attached. DA crop mode (16MP) and HD crop mode (2MP) in video.
    • Manual video controls with manual audio control.
    • optional EVF attached to hot shoe, with a short HDMI connector supporting 3rd party solutions. Mostly for video work.
    • AF module like K-5 (with better light color sensor) but with a more powerful center sensor: f/2.8 cross type and smaller area.
    • 3D tracking in AF module requires more AF points and new knowledge and should be a secondary thought. AF accuracy should remain the main concern.
  4. Lenses:
    • The FA Limiteds (and some DA Limiteds and DA*60-250) and the DFA100, DA*55, DA*200/300 make a solid start.
    • Add a good! $500 FA* 24-75/4 lens at launch usable as a "kit" lens.
    • Add two wide angle lenses.
    • Add an excellent $1000 FA*70-200/4 like Canon.
    • Add the more expensive fast 24-70/2.8 and 70-200/2.8 afterwards as f/2.8 zoom on full frame with modern sensors are less frequently required.
    • Complete with longer tele, fish eye, TC etc. over time. Esp. make a good AF converter to be used with the Pentax mirrorless.
  5. Market positioning:
    Position as the enthusiast SLR of the future, with APSC becoming bridge and entry-level and moving to mirrorless (but committing continued support for DA lenses). Beat on Canikon for making FF for their followers both expensive and bulky. Make a committment to K-mount glass and that possible electronic VF cameras (mirrorless or not) will fully support it.
That's about it. This is how I see a successful K-5 successor. After all, the K-5 is pretty good and leaves not many reasons to upgrade in the foreseeable future ...
I'll buy that in under 2 seconds!
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