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01-19-2012, 02:27 PM   #2221
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Your arguments eventually all fall back onto this claim.

I seriously doubt it. Sony Microelectronics must try very hard to raise the value of CMOS sensors embedded into system cameras. Right now, it has become ridiculously low, between 2% and 10% of the overall product. Their best option is to create a market for larger formats and I am pretty sure this is exactly what we see happening this year. Unlike Canikon, they don't (nor does the Sony camera divison) have to protect $5000 cameras from canibalization.

this is the real issue Falk. Right now there is not a snowballs chance in hell nikon or canon will make any effort to reduce the market price on FF. why sell the D700 or 5d2 at lower prices when there is no competition and it continues to be a sell through high margin product that protects the ridiculously high prices on the 1d and d3 models.
the Sony 900 which was their serious FF product (and in the d700 and 52d feature set) they priced the same as the Nikon and canon. Sony has never been one to lead the market on price and in fact have long done the same thing canon and Nikon are doing
Pentax OTOH has already redefined a market pricing structure with the 645D and grown the market by bringing customers to a market segment they previously didn't enter due to price to some degree
I agree Aristophenes plan would eventually see the company shrink to what Olympus became towards the end of the film era

Do they need to compete in the milc arena. damn right they do, and entry level k mount is what brings users to the brand. most will never move up but some will. as the move up they will buy lenses etc and many may well go from entry strait to FF others may take an intermediate step first. Ultimately the market will head to FF in any case because you have to do something to keep enticing people to replace their perfectly good cameras (look at how many people here change with every new body)

01-19-2012, 03:27 PM   #2222
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pentaxor Quote
not sure about that. the difference between the DA LTD's and FA LTD's are not that far off from each other. it's not like you have to spend more than $1,000 apart. so I don't get the point of money being better spent. also, it depends on what cheap lenses you are referring to. some of the old FF manual focus lenses are the best lenses that money can buy for less cost.
Well, I see your point clearly, but I agree and disagree. The thing is that each shooter has different set of equipments, budget, and needs, and that sort of thing.

Say, you have a K-5 and few DA lenses (or ltds or DA*), but not FA ltds. You are now shelling out $2,500 - 3,000 for the FF body. I agree that old Tak is a wonderful option, but if you do not have any FA ltds I am sure that you will be tempted to get one. Say you get one Tak, and one of FA ltds. Depending on which FA ltds you get, it can run you any where between $1,000 to $1,500 for both. Now you are looking at the cost of buying into a FF system that can rise up to $4,500. Yes, by selling your APS-C set up, that can reduce the cost somewhat, and yes quite considerably if you got nice stuff now. But, as much as K-5 is worshipped around here, wouldn't it make sense to spend that $4,500 and load up on DA* line up, or complete DA ltds series?

I agree with you that Tak is a great option. Superb lenses. I am a manual focus guy, and hardly ever use AF. So I will be cool with that option. But, many of forum members complain endlessly about how bad pentax AF system is. You are talking about a set of people who complain that AF is not fast enough. I don't think that they will be content with a lens that offer no AF. I am sure that there are FF lenses with AF from the film days that one can still pick up. They are all over ebay. Perhaps something like this: Pentax SMCP-FA 28-90mm lens | eBay

I dunno. This may well be a good lens, but after spending $3,000 on a FF body, why slap on something like that, instead of FA ltds, or better, updated or newly designed FF lenses that Pentax would like you to buy along with.

Now, say, you got a slew of old Tak and FA ltds, along with your APS-C set up. Only then I think it makes sense to sell all your APS-C stuff and get into FF, as long as you are cool with manual focusing. You may well be, but I doubt that is typical.

To switch gears though, with $4,500, if you are cool with MF, you can get M8 and may be up to 3 lenses. I got M8 for $2,000, and spent $950 on Biogon 28/2.8, $800 on Pentax-L 43/1.9 ltd, and $600 on Voightlander 15/4.5. To fund this I sold nearly all of my APS-C stuff except DA 35/2.8 ltd(I love it too much), and DA*50-135/2.8 (SDM broken) and kept my K-7. I did keep my FA 31/77 ltds though, to keep my option open.

Money can be spent in many different ways . . . .
01-19-2012, 03:46 PM   #2223
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I'll make a shot, outlining how a full frame Pentax should look IMHO.

I'll collect feed-back and may write a blog article outlining a camera which may create enough interest. Here we go:

  1. I name it Pentax KF-10 to make clear it is a first entry in a series of full frame K mount cameras.
  2. MSRP about K-5 + 50%, i.e., about $2250.
    This is (inflation considered) about the price of the *ist-D when it launched and is affordable to grown-up enthusiasts. Moreover, it is enough budget to create an exciting camera. The sensor alone should be a lot less than 10% the MSRP so it should be doable.
  3. Feature set alike K-5:
    • ~7 fps, alloy body, weather-sealed, damped shutter, 100% VF (optical, yes!, mirror, yes!).
    • Size: 143mm (W) x 107mm (H) x 73mm (D)
      which is the size of the K-5 with absolute padding added for the bigger sensor area; there is no need to scale anything linearly except for the pentaprism size (I added 2mm to the prism height).
    • Weight: 850g (with a solid alloy body).
    • Vertical grip, tethering to Lightroom, new flash as options.
    • SR like the K-5, less affected by shock though;
      the SR or image circle doesn't need any extra padding, the current 2mm per side are more than enough, 1mm would suffice actually (not assumed bot feasible).
    • 5m pitch which makes the camera 35MP; same Sony tech as K-5's sensor, an expected product from Sony Microelectronics in 2012.
    • Native ISO 80/100, boosting DR to a bold 15EV (DxO).
    • DA (APSC) crop mode always available and always optional with any lens, only default switches with a DA lens attached. DA crop mode (16MP) and HD crop mode (2MP) in video.
    • Manual video controls with manual audio control.
    • optional EVF attached to hot shoe, with a short HDMI connector supporting 3rd party solutions. Mostly for video work.
    • AF module like K-5 (with better light color sensor) but with a more powerful center sensor: f/2.8 cross type and smaller area.
    • 3D tracking in AF module requires more AF points and new knowledge and should be a secondary thought. AF accuracy should remain the main concern.
  4. Lenses:
    • The FA Limiteds (and some DA Limiteds and DA*60-250) and the DFA100, DA*55, DA*200/300 make a solid start.
    • Add a good! $500 FA* 24-75/4 lens at launch usable as a "kit" lens.
    • Add two wide angle lenses.
    • Add an excellent $1000 FA*70-200/4 like Canon.
    • Add the more expensive fast 24-70/2.8 and 70-200/2.8 afterwards as f/2.8 zoom on full frame with modern sensors are less frequently required.
    • Complete with longer tele, fish eye, TC etc. over time. Esp. make a good AF converter to be used with the Pentax mirrorless.
  5. Market positioning:
    Position as the enthusiast SLR of the future, with APSC becoming bridge and entry-level and moving to mirrorless (but committing continued support for DA lenses). Beat on Canikon for making FF for their followers both expensive and bulky. Make a committment to K-mount glass and that possible electronic VF cameras (mirrorless or not) will fully support it.
That's about it. This is how I see a successful K-5 successor. After all, the K-5 is pretty good and leaves not many reasons to upgrade in the foreseeable future ...
Unfortunately I think doing this would kill Pentax dead. There's really isn't any reason here to switch from CaNikon to Pentax. It's cheaper yeah, but the price is just pure speculation, no one has any idea how much it'd actually cost, you can guess all you like. But so far from this list the price is the only thing that really draws me to it. Nothing says wow, I need that camera. It's light I guess?

Actually looking at it, it's heavier than the 5d mkII, which it would be competing with. The 5D mkII would be cheaper and lighter with a much more established system of lenses and flashes, as well as accessories. The 5D mkII is old, but unless a camera is cutting edge (which this camera would certainly not be), every SLR feels old now because it's not mirrorless.

Sorry to be so critical but this seems like a really lacklustre wishlist for a camera. You're saying Ricoh should be taking more chances. Making FF cheaper by a tiny margin is not taking a risk. If they managed to make FF cheap enough for everyone then yeah, it'd be a game changer, but that's not going to happen. They need something radically different to this.

I bought into Pentax because they delivered more at a price point, and I regret doing so now because Nikon and Canon have a much better selection of lenses, but I have what I need with Pentax and I'm not changing. Until I have enough for whatever the D800/5Dmk3/whatever will cost, and then I will be switching systems unless Pentax can really pull something amazing together. And the D800 will destroy the camera described here no doubt.

(and I'll point out that not having a FF camera and trying to get second shooter work is very difficult, at least where I live. If I could get a D800 with the 50+85 f/1.8 with the 24 1.4 and an SB800 or whatever it is I'd be happy for a long time. The K-5 and the 50-135 can stay as my backup. Nothing will part me from my 50-135)

Last edited by Mareket; 01-19-2012 at 03:54 PM.
01-19-2012, 04:38 PM   #2224
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I'll make a shot, outlining how a full frame Pentax should look IMHO.

I'll collect feed-back and may write a blog article outlining a camera which may create enough interest. Here we go:

  1. I name it Pentax KF-10 to make clear it is a first entry in a series of full frame K mount cameras.
  2. MSRP about K-5 + 50%, i.e., about $2250.
    This is (inflation considered) about the price of the *ist-D when it launched and is affordable to grown-up enthusiasts. Moreover, it is enough budget to create an exciting camera. The sensor alone should be a lot less than 10% the MSRP so it should be doable.
  3. Feature set alike K-5:
    • ~7 fps, alloy body, weather-sealed, damped shutter, 100% VF (optical, yes!, mirror, yes!).
    • Size: 143mm (W) x 107mm (H) x 73mm (D)
      which is the size of the K-5 with absolute padding added for the bigger sensor area; there is no need to scale anything linearly except for the pentaprism size (I added 2mm to the prism height).
    • Weight: 850g (with a solid alloy body).
    • Vertical grip, tethering to Lightroom, new flash as options.
    • SR like the K-5, less affected by shock though;
      the SR or image circle doesn't need any extra padding, the current 2mm per side are more than enough, 1mm would suffice actually (not assumed bot feasible).
    • 5m pitch which makes the camera 35MP; same Sony tech as K-5's sensor, an expected product from Sony Microelectronics in 2012.
    • Native ISO 80/100, boosting DR to a bold 15EV (DxO).
    • DA (APSC) crop mode always available and always optional with any lens, only default switches with a DA lens attached. DA crop mode (16MP) and HD crop mode (2MP) in video.
    • Manual video controls with manual audio control.
    • optional EVF attached to hot shoe, with a short HDMI connector supporting 3rd party solutions. Mostly for video work.
    • AF module like K-5 (with better light color sensor) but with a more powerful center sensor: f/2.8 cross type and smaller area.
    • 3D tracking in AF module requires more AF points and new knowledge and should be a secondary thought. AF accuracy should remain the main concern.
  4. Lenses:
    • The FA Limiteds (and some DA Limiteds and DA*60-250) and the DFA100, DA*55, DA*200/300 make a solid start.
    • Add a good! $500 FA* 24-75/4 lens at launch usable as a "kit" lens.
    • Add two wide angle lenses.
    • Add an excellent $1000 FA*70-200/4 like Canon.
    • Add the more expensive fast 24-70/2.8 and 70-200/2.8 afterwards as f/2.8 zoom on full frame with modern sensors are less frequently required.
    • Complete with longer tele, fish eye, TC etc. over time. Esp. make a good AF converter to be used with the Pentax mirrorless.
  5. Market positioning:
    Position as the enthusiast SLR of the future, with APSC becoming bridge and entry-level and moving to mirrorless (but committing continued support for DA lenses). Beat on Canikon for making FF for their followers both expensive and bulky. Make a committment to K-mount glass and that possible electronic VF cameras (mirrorless or not) will fully support it.
That's about it. This is how I see a successful K-5 successor. After all, the K-5 is pretty good and leaves not many reasons to upgrade in the foreseeable future ...
.

The appearance of such a camera would cause me to do something irrational, like pre-order before any professional reviews were out.

That would be a great initial offering, and with a extended lens roadmap, make Pentax a very formidable player.



.

01-19-2012, 04:44 PM   #2225
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mareket Quote
The 5D mkII is old, but unless a camera is cutting edge (which this camera would certainly not be), every SLR feels old now because it's not mirrorless.
Huh? We had mirrorless cameras long before the SLR was invented...
01-19-2012, 05:34 PM - 1 Like   #2226
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mareket Quote
Unfortunately I think doing this would kill Pentax dead. There's really isn't any reason here to switch from CaNikon to Pentax.
Well, are there any reasons to switch from CaNikon to Pentax currently, without offering FF DSLR?

FF DSLR would not make Pentax situation worse, than it is now, that's for sure.

IMHO, in the first place Pentax should be worried about keeping their current users from switching to CaNikon instead of getting CaNikon users.

I and my wife are such users. My wife started to do wedding/children photography (I sometimes assist her) and we're on the way of switching to CaNikon fullframe, we're just waiting for Nikon D800... And I know that I am not alone here.

Pentax FF DSLR (especially the one described by falconeye) at least would postpone our switch. And if it's good enough (Autofocus much improved and various flash issues fixed) we would stay with Pentax.

Last edited by Edvinas; 01-19-2012 at 06:00 PM.
01-19-2012, 05:36 PM   #2227
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QuoteOriginally posted by Edvinas Quote
Well, are there any reason to switch from CaNikon to Pentax currently, without offering FF DSLR? FF DSLR won't make Pentax situation worse, than it is now, that's for sure.

IMHO, in the first place Pentax should be worried about keeping their current users from switching to CaNikon instead of getting CaNikon users.
If Pentax makes an FF camera, something I think they will at some point, I expect that first venture to be expensive and targeted at those who already sits on older Pentax glass. Pretty much like they did with the 645D...
01-19-2012, 05:41 PM   #2228
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The Falk Camera

QuoteOriginally posted by Edvinas Quote
Well, are there any reason to switch from CaNikon to Pentax currently, without offering FF DSLR?
rofl, excellent point.

QuoteQuote:
IMHO, in the first place Pentax should be worried about keeping their current users from switching to CaNikon instead of getting CaNikon users.
Yes, and getting a portion of the rest of the future worldwide m43/aps-c upgrade stream; The folks moving up from one of the mirrorless companies, or from Oly.


QuoteQuote:
I and my wife are such users. My wife started to do wedding/children photography (I sometimes assist here) and we're on the way of switching to CaNikon fullframe, we're just waiting for Nikon D800...

Pentax FF DSLR (especially the one described by falconeye) at least would postpone our switch. And if it's good enough (Autofocus much improved and various flash issues fixed) we would stay with Pentax.
If the Falk Camera appears, you can buy my D700 at a steep discount for your wedding shoots (D700 is the perfect wedding camera.)


.

01-19-2012, 06:00 PM   #2229
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Looks like this thread has gotten off track.
01-19-2012, 06:34 PM   #2230
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
I agree Aristophenes plan would eventually see the company shrink to what Olympus became towards the end of the film era
Except Pentax sales continue to grow, whereas pre-m43and the weight of Panasonic in there as well, Olympus 43 sales were actually shrinking.

QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
Pentax OTOH has already redefined a market pricing structure with the 645D
The 645D only marginally compete with Hassy and P1/Mamiya. It's like comparing mining truck sales with sports cars.

There is zero incentive for Sony to sell FF sensors at a lower price to Pentax than they do to Nikon who buys 100% of Sony's volume right now and would buy 95% if Pentax were in the game. Sony will help Sony before they will help Pentax.

The entire premise of a Pentax FF offering is to be cheaper than Canikon. To get there Sony would have to agree to supply Pentax to start a pricing war on FF sensors, against their best customer. And at the same time, Sony would be gambling that their APS-C revenues are not diminished as a result.

QuoteOriginally posted by Mareket Quote
Making FF cheaper by a tiny margin is not taking a risk. If they managed to make FF cheap enough for everyone then yeah, it'd be a game changer, but that's not going to happen. They need something radically different to this.
This is the essence of the problem.

When we are talking a solid $5,000 to by into the "new" FF Pentax system (+taxes!) the market gets real small, real fast. Many who talk big will get cold feet and APS-C at 1/3 the outlay will be "good enough". So Pentax coming in and offering a very modest 8% discount over Canikon is not going to move the masses.

Worse, Canikon could eat the 8% and inch down the track, sacrificing margins to make a point. Or they could start bundling lenses or extending warranties. If the big guns really want to compete they could make life utterly miserable for Pentax in this price point.

I said this over a year ago and I'll say it again. The price of the D800 and what Canon do are what will trigger lower FF sensor prices. Once the supply opens up between those two, then Pentax can buy in where its customer base is financially. The market has to move to Pentax. It will when the clone APS-C no longer sells enough and brands stop competing on megapixels and start competing on sensor size.
01-19-2012, 07:46 PM   #2231
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Except Pentax sales continue to grow, whereas pre-m43and the weight of Panasonic in there as well, Olympus 43 sales were actually shrinking.



The 645D only marginally compete with Hassy and P1/Mamiya. It's like comparing mining truck sales with sports cars.

There is zero incentive for Sony to sell FF sensors at a lower price to Pentax than they do to Nikon who buys 100% of Sony's volume right now and would buy 95% if Pentax were in the game. Sony will help Sony before they will help Pentax.

The entire premise of a Pentax FF offering is to be cheaper than Canikon. To get there Sony would have to agree to supply Pentax to start a pricing war on FF sensors, against their best customer. And at the same time, Sony would be gambling that their APS-C revenues are not diminished as a result.



This is the essence of the problem.

When we are talking a solid $5,000 to by into the "new" FF Pentax system (+taxes!) the market gets real small, real fast. Many who talk big will get cold feet and APS-C at 1/3 the outlay will be "good enough". So Pentax coming in and offering a very modest 8% discount over Canikon is not going to move the masses.

Worse, Canikon could eat the 8% and inch down the track, sacrificing margins to make a point. Or they could start bundling lenses or extending warranties. If the big guns really want to compete they could make life utterly miserable for Pentax in this price point.

I said this over a year ago and I'll say it again. The price of the D800 and what Canon do are what will trigger lower FF sensor prices. Once the supply opens up between those two, then Pentax can buy in where its customer base is financially. The market has to move to Pentax. It will when the clone APS-C no longer sells enough and brands stop competing on megapixels and start competing on sensor size.

considering Kodak is in the shithole right now, maybe Pentax/Ricoh could buy out whatever useful patent Kodak possesses. that is of course if none of the other players beats them. this would be a good time I think since their (Kodak) stocks are cheap and needed the money. production of a cheap FF is possible. all they have to do is sell them in large volumes, which of course Canon and Nikon won't like very much.
01-19-2012, 08:43 PM - 1 Like   #2232
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QuoteOriginally posted by Norseman Quote
Looks like this thread has gotten off track.
rofl. There was never a track. The thread is not a train, it's a dune-buggy. Enjoy the ride.

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01-19-2012, 08:45 PM   #2233
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Competing is scary. Don't compete. (paraphrased.)
Yes, compete. Or shrink/die.

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01-19-2012, 11:38 PM   #2234
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Why are you continuously talking about canikons to move from their group to the Pentax family?
There are all the time growing new amateurs and even professionals, and those are much easyer to lead to Pentax family.
To do that, you need a constant camera lineup so that you must not buy any other brand before buying the FF Pentax.
In my opinnion Pentax do not have as good service in serious compact cameras as Canon, Nikon, Panasonic and even Sony. You should have a very good compact camera in price level USD 400 or below, then you could expect to get new soon becoming amateurs to be interested on your brand. After that you have to have also 3-4 steps before you can expect that amateurs reach the FF range.
Not all are buying the whole range before reaching the FF level, but you must have all steps available, because you really do not know in which step the photographer is when he/she realise that there are also high quality Pentax cameras available just for me.
01-20-2012, 01:02 AM   #2235
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
Yes, compete. Or shrink/die.

.
+1 for this!

You can give ground away to the competition only once. Because you won't be getting it back.
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