Originally posted by Frogfish However what your calculations ignore, from the point of profitability, is that camera makers gain a lot more from the sales of lenses than they do from DSLR camera profit margins.
Right.
And half the chorus here says they will buy an FF body to use legacy glass, thereby undermining at least half those sales. The "I want a new camera body with old lenses" is a sales killer. Or, if you do release the body, forget a budget, bare bones model (a la Sony A850). You need to score some serious margins, like Nikon does to justify the cost. Nikon is able to sell the D700 at $2,500/body precisely because they can sell a D3x at $6,500/body. That's just microecon, B-school cost-shifting.
Either that or you ramp lens prices up. And there's where Pentax has a major problem. Their old F/FA lens line-up does not compete with Canikon or Sony FF digital zooms. With zooms making up the vast majority of sales, that has to be nailed down. Development cycles that long are measured in years, not months. You're looking a 3-4 years of development time. If you want an FF body by 2013, the chip orders to Sony would have had to go in pre-Ricoh, and the big zooms that make or break a system would have required development under Hoya. Instead, Hoya steadfastly nixed FF, and Adam received a polite letter in return to his detailed query that addressed not one of his specifics.
The larger issue is the schisms in the market with aggregate sales moving towards volume APS-C for gross revenues, and mirrorless playing the disruptor, stealing market share with a piebald sensor offering, adding Samsung and Panasonic to the mix.
FF's market share is actually getting smaller, not larger, and the big boys (and Sony) love that because it keeps profits from pros and prosumers high. No one wants to rock that boat by turning FF sensors into commodities like APS-C. Sony withdrew the A850 to keep margins high. Nikon has been sitting on the D800 for how long? They limit supply (Canon and Sony) of FF sensors to keep prices and profits up there. There is zero evidence in the sensor market of that changing, not when gross revenues are being lost to cellphones at the P&S end. No one is going to sell Pentax a FF sensor to put in a low-end body to undercut Sony and Canikon profit margins. Until a price war begins between Canon and Nikon in FF bodies, that's not going to change.