Originally posted by Aristophanes To heap on the data, there exists vocal consumer, media, technical, and financial voices discussing openly the concept that DSLR's are going to be niche products due to the onset of mirrorless systems.
Where mirrorless will hit hardest is the lower-end DSLR segment. Pentax may not be able to count on K-x level sales carrying them through many more cycles. A lot of the black ink they saw in 2010 was the K-x.
If Ricoh wants to keep the main asset they purchased - K-mount - a viable revenue generator in the years to come, they will move into full frame. This means a relatively big, multi-year lens rollout, it means an enriched product line with tech that moves
down the tiers, faster AF, most likely an improved in-lens motor system like Sigma's HSM II or Nikon's AF-S.
Quote: FF looks only to be viable if Ricoh is willing to bet a staggering amount of money on the format, and lose that money for a 5-10 year period.
Ricoh spent something like $124 million USD purchasing Pentax. If you're a Ricoh, and you're doing well now, but you want to build revenue (and profit) generating businesses for the time
after your bread and butter revenue source (copiers) may be entering an uncertain period - if not a period of decline -
something like FF is exactly what you do.
You invest in the business you bought cheaply so that it's stronger and profitable when you need it to be. A 5 year ROI is not of great concern to someone like Ricoh, especially when they know that if they don't do it, the main asset they bought will have shrunk in relative and absolute terms due to pressure from above and below. No K-x equivalent in 2014 because of mirrorless pressure means bad things for Ricoh if they didn't start moving up the food chain to protect K-mount before that. At the same time, increasingly less-expensive FF bodies from Sony, Canon and maybe Nikon means an aps-c K-3 just isn't as attractive as an 'upgrade' as the K-5 was in 2011.
That's a bad pinch to be in. You start looking like the Olympus E-5 does today - a half-hearted product in a tier that dead-ends.
Pentax, K-mount and Ricoh have much more potential than that.
And as I said several times before: Sony isn't going crazy with the FF body prototypes over there because they think FF is a bad bet.
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