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02-13-2012, 05:09 PM   #256
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QuoteOriginally posted by maxfield_photo Quote
This succinctly cuts to the heart of the problem, and I don't think Pentax HQ understands this simple point. I had hoped that Ricoh might force them to explore a FF option in order to compete with Canon, but now that the imaging portion of PRI has been handed over to Pentax, it seems unlikely that it's going to happen.
You never know. Pentax-standalone would have had to literally risk the company to develop and release a FF body and a new lens roadmap. Pentax-Hoya, it turns out, was not much more than a big house-staging in preparation for sale. Pentax-Ricoh can easily afford a $50 million FF initiative (for example) and not sweat a 4-year ROI, if they thought it meant solid revenue for the decade after that and new lens sales in both the aps-c and FF tier during that time (thanks, new roadmap! )

It could be that the FF potential/will/prototype/seed was always there, and now finally, in 2012 or 2013, can come to fruition. In some form or another.

02-13-2012, 06:24 PM   #257
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QuoteOriginally posted by maxfield_photo Quote
This succinctly cuts to the heart of the problem, and I don't think Pentax HQ understands this simple point. I had hoped that Ricoh might force them to explore a FF option in order to compete with Canon, but now that the imaging portion of PRI has been handed over to Pentax, it seems unlikely that it's going to happen.
That's also where I'm at. I shot Pentax for both work and for fun for a long time. In the film days, they did a decent job of satisfying those needs. Then digital came and it took forever for them to make the transition. Then the focus was mostly on lower and mid level cameras with very few lenses and certainly no 'system' approach. I waited, lived with what was available.

By the time the K20D was due to be replaced (I wore out 3 of them in just over a year and was loosing faith it could take the workload), I felt I needed to make a choice. The camera, although nice, was a limiting factor. Lenses were an issue as well (SDM). The K-7 was announced with very little in the form of an upgrade and it was time to move on.

So if they made another half-assed move to a new platform, I wouldn't consider coming back. It would have to be a complete system, lenses, flashes, accessories and a seriously competing body with clear direction on adding a second upper end body. I don't think one body will do. All of this would have to be launched together and available in the same year.

For me, and I suspect those like me, I can't afford and even if I could, I wouldn't run 2 different brands. I'd need a complete system ready to do a switch back over a month or so.

So as was stated, the system is a dead end for those moving up the scale. I'd most likely spend $20K to switch back since I have at least that tied up in Nikon. But the D4 is on this year's shopping list and if I bought that camera, I would need a hugely compelling reason to switch. For the Canon shooter, the new Canon EOS 1D X has raised the game for them and meets or exceeds the D3s. So for Pentax to get in the game, it's not going to be easy.
02-14-2012, 05:30 AM   #258
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
It could be that the FF potential/will/prototype/seed was always there, and now finally, in 2012 or 2013, can come to fruition. In some form or another.
There are jump points. Always when Sony releases a new FF sensor. Pentax could have jumped to FF with the 24MP sensor (A900), or now the 36MP (A99). They didn't then and don't do now. I am thinking that most Pentaxians are already in 36MP FF land when Pentax will ever decide to jump with the next installation of Sony's FF roadmap. A Pentax FF which is a year late to the D800 party is not necessarily the best thing Pentax can do ... One option left is a K-0x derivative with the 36MP FF sensor.
02-14-2012, 05:55 AM   #259
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
And when you add a FF you'll grow the brand. Right now there are people who AREN'T buying Pentax because it's a dead-end; once you want to go past 'serious amateur' camera you have to ditch your entire investment in lenses.
This is a myth. 95% of advanced amateurs and professionals don't use FF. Incidentallt, the few pros I know using FF bought them used.....

However, due to the increasingly fragmented state of the digital camera market FF may make some sense in the near(?) future. But it is a question of (sensor) cost and hence market potential...

02-14-2012, 05:58 AM   #260
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
This is a myth. 95% of advanced amateurs and professionals don't use FF. Incidentallt, the few pros I know using FF bought them used.....
I wish I could buy a used Pentax FF camera.
02-14-2012, 05:59 AM   #261
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
I wish I could buy a used Pentax FF camera.
I'd be happy to sell you mine when I'm done with it
02-14-2012, 08:31 AM   #262
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
This is a myth. 95% of advanced amateurs and professionals don't use FF. Incidentallt, the few pros I know using FF bought them used.....
The biggest downside I saw when I purchased my Pentax... was the lack of the ability to grow. Other factors outweighed that decision but it would've been a slam-dunk with a FF.

Just because 80% of "advanced amateurs" will never use FF doesn't mean that when they make a purchase decision NOW, they won't have a un-checked checkmark box for 'can I eventually purchase a better camera'.

02-14-2012, 08:43 AM   #263
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
This is a myth. 95% of advanced amateurs and professionals don't use FF. Incidentallt, the few pros I know using FF bought them used.....
funnily enough if we a looking at anecdotal evidence all the pro's i know shoot FF and all bought it new (though the second body in some cases was a used one)

And i know a good number of enthusiasts using Ff not to mention when i go in to the biggest shop in town i see more people looking at FF (5 d MK2 specifically ) than top level apsc (it is however right next to the tiny pentax display so i may be getting invalid data )
02-14-2012, 09:22 AM   #264
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Eddie, I would agree, I bought my first D700 used and only because I had 2 broken k20D's I couldn't sell (recoup the cost), and had to lay out a lot of money on a complete system over a 1 week period before selling off the old system. I was right in the middle of the wedding season (August) and forced to buy a 4th K20D or switch. Ended up shooting 2 systems for about a month while learning the new gear. Once that was all done, then I bought a new body as the main camera.

Almost everyone I chat with on DWF (there are over 10K active members there) will advise you buy new and have themselves. Also, the price of a new one vs a used (doesn't matter if its Canon or Nikon) is almost the same anyway.

Finally for anecdotal evidence, that forum features the top shooters on the planet in the wedding, event, boudoir, portrait etc world. Most of American Photo's "Top Ten Wedding Photographers" from years past and current are active there. I have never once heard anyone talk about Sony FF. Everyone shoots either Canon, Nikon, Phase 1 or Hassy. A few have looked at the Pentax 645D but I see no evidence anyone owns one although they are aware of it and it's been mentioned as a "nice camera for the price/features".

Convincing shooters at this level to consider Sony or Pentax would probably take an act of God. In fact the only way I think it would be possible to make inroads there would be to pick 4-5 top names and completely sponsor them with a free system. Until there's a free system available, there's no point in even trying.

I have no idea what the situation is like at the top end for sports, fashion, photojournalist and other sectors of the top photographers but I'd guess it's similar.
My point is, the market for both Pentax and Sony is limited to their already entrenched consumer base. They will consider an upgrade. But again, you're loosing an APSc sale to sell a FF body. So the net is the same. Plus reading the last few comments in this thread, can Pentax afford to have a FF camera system on the shelf as a confidence indicator to those choosing the brand while buying APSc, 'Just in case I decide to upgrade someday, it's nice to know Pentax makes one".

I contend for the health of the company, they would be smarter to loose the occasional first time buyer and the long timer who's upgrading. Rather than creating an entire line that will not sell that many systems.

I haven't posted here the last couple of times to be a downer on this idea. Just a reality check. I'll always be a Pentaxian at heart and want the company to succeed. Their strength is APSc and smaller cameras. I hope they sell buckets of them. I'd just like to see the company be around in 5-10+ years as well.

BTW, love the signature line quote!
02-14-2012, 09:28 AM   #265
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You have to keep in mind the change in consumer mentality. With the rise of DSLR sales thanks to the new generation of youths, FF are likely to rise. Many 20 year-olds I know that just got new jobs and extra income are getting FF cameras. Quite a few of them are getting Sony's a900 (they have quite a cult following, no idea why) and a few others are getting 5D Mk2s.

I can't speak for other countries, and once again this is just a personal observation, but the growth of SLR users in Malaysia have risen ridiculously in the past few years. And a surprising number of youths there can afford (or their parents can afford) full-frame SLRs.

I for one definitely can't purchase a full-frame even if Pentax announces it this year. But it's definitely something I would purchase eventually if they announce one. And if they announce one, I would probably indulge more in my LBA - pursue the FA triplets. Right now I'm contemplating if I should call it quits and start my move to a different system.

But i think that's just a little hasty of me.
02-14-2012, 09:45 AM   #266
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QuoteOriginally posted by tjk911 Quote
You have to keep in mind the change in consumer mentality. With the rise of DSLR sales thanks to the new generation of youths, FF are likely to rise. Many 20 year-olds I know that just got new jobs and extra income are getting FF cameras. Quite a few of them are getting Sony's a900 (they have quite a cult following, no idea why) and a few others are getting 5D Mk2s.
I believe that the market for $2500+ cameras is very small compared to APS sensored DSLR's (something that is reflected in the production numbers). Not to mention a $2500+ Pentax ....and then theres the lenses which might add significantly to the cost.
I think Pentax may want to cater to the ones that sit on Pentax FF lenses intially (if they release an FF camera)...
02-14-2012, 09:57 AM   #267
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QuoteOriginally posted by Peter Zack Quote
Eddie, I would agree, I bought my first D700 used and only because I had 2 broken k20D's I couldn't sell (recoup the cost), and had to lay out a lot of money on a complete system over a 1 week period before selling off the old system. I was right in the middle of the wedding season (August) and forced to buy a 4th K20D or switch. Ended up shooting 2 systems for about a month while learning the new gear. Once that was all done, then I bought a new body as the main camera.

Almost everyone I chat with on DWF (there are over 10K active members there) will advise you buy new and have themselves. Also, the price of a new one vs a used (doesn't matter if its Canon or Nikon) is almost the same anyway.

Finally for anecdotal evidence, that forum features the top shooters on the planet in the wedding, event, boudoir, portrait etc world. Most of American Photo's "Top Ten Wedding Photographers" from years past and current are active there. I have never once heard anyone talk about Sony FF. Everyone shoots either Canon, Nikon, Phase 1 or Hassy. A few have looked at the Pentax 645D but I see no evidence anyone owns one although they are aware of it and it's been mentioned as a "nice camera for the price/features".

Convincing shooters at this level to consider Sony or Pentax would probably take an act of God. In fact the only way I think it would be possible to make inroads there would be to pick 4-5 top names and completely sponsor them with a free system. Until there's a free system available, there's no point in even trying.

I have no idea what the situation is like at the top end for sports, fashion, photojournalist and other sectors of the top photographers but I'd guess it's similar.
My point is, the market for both Pentax and Sony is limited to their already entrenched consumer base. They will consider an upgrade. But again, you're loosing an APSc sale to sell a FF body. So the net is the same. Plus reading the last few comments in this thread, can Pentax afford to have a FF camera system on the shelf as a confidence indicator to those choosing the brand while buying APSc, 'Just in case I decide to upgrade someday, it's nice to know Pentax makes one".

I contend for the health of the company, they would be smarter to loose the occasional first time buyer and the long timer who's upgrading. Rather than creating an entire line that will not sell that many systems.

I haven't posted here the last couple of times to be a downer on this idea. Just a reality check. I'll always be a Pentaxian at heart and want the company to succeed. Their strength is APSc and smaller cameras. I hope they sell buckets of them. I'd just like to see the company be around in 5-10+ years as well.

BTW, love the signature line quote!
I would tend to have agreed with the idea that FF wasn't doable for Pentax until the Ricoh purchase. there was no way Hoya was going to do it (or even allocated R&D dollars to it as a long term project) Prior to Hoya things were in such a financial mess it would have bankrupted them (it's enough that the 645D was essentially ready to g waiting on sensor price for Hoya to get it out)
I think Ricoh is a different story. they are a large wealthy company (on a scale of canon their biggest competitor already) The market for their core business is changing dramatically and they will need to fully reinvent themselves withing 10 years or less I think. They seem to have decided the camera business is where they will do that. Thing is they need to pump in the cash now while they have it and build the secondary business into a primary otherwise in 10 years neither business will be that good. Given how aggressively they pursued and won the copier market I see no reason they wouldn't intend to do it in the camera market (10 year plan wise). If it means sponsoring a dozen top shooters in different fields world wide with a system to get it going I can see them doing that (really that's cheaper than a single super bowl ad)
certainly the first 3 years of this type of plan means losing some money on the top model.
I think all that is true if they are going to chase the pro market.
If they want to pursue the mass market in general most of it still holds (though initially 1 FF model may be fine and it need not be a fully pro spec'd model the 645 system being their pro market system (it could benefit from some improvements that can be shared cross platform, improved Af, Better Pttl, Faster processing etc like it shared with K7 at the time of release. Already it is a unique FF offering from a design build stamndpoint. the closest thing being the wildly overpriced S2 system which has too few lenses to even be considered by a pro.
a 645D with better flash and faster processing and AF would be a heck of a toll for a lot of Pro's i think - add in a FF 645 sensor which is what the MK2 will likely have and it's pretty hot. the the FF camera is the high end enthusiast model or entry pro model.then a s time pass they can grow the Ff line as well
02-14-2012, 11:00 AM   #268
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Well Eddie, those are good points and I can't counter them since we have no idea what Ricoh has planned. You may be right, they might direct the Pentax engineers to get working on a new category. I'd guess that if they really wanted to and were committed 100% to doing this, they can do it.

The important thing they need to go after is a complete system approach. They also have to commit to spending some serious money to get the gear in the hands of people who can influence the market. They must know that they could re-invent the wheel at half the cost and still be unsuccessful. But if they got (in the wedding world) people like:
Jeff Ascough, Jerry Ghionis, Cliff Mautner, Jasmine Star and Dina Douglass to name a few. If these and other top end shooters had the gear and liked it, people would notice.

As a side note in regards to the Nikon D800, this would be a platform Ricoh, Pentax could work on. The complaint I see quite a bit about it is file size. Canon has sRAW and mRAW available in their upper end cameras and if Pentax released a camera with the 36MP chip and added this feature, it would be a huge deal. I do think there would have to be a roadmap for an upper end model to follow within a year of launching the first FF body though. One will just not cut it.
02-14-2012, 11:26 AM   #269
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QuoteOriginally posted by Peter Zack Quote
Well Eddie, those are good points and I can't counter them since we have no idea what Ricoh has planned. You may be right, they might direct the Pentax engineers to get working on a new category. I'd guess that if they really wanted to and were committed 100% to doing this, they can do it.

The important thing they need to go after is a complete system approach. They also have to commit to spending some serious money to get the gear in the hands of people who can influence the market. They must know that they could re-invent the wheel at half the cost and still be unsuccessful. But if they got (in the wedding world) people like:
Jeff Ascough, Jerry Ghionis, Cliff Mautner, Jasmine Star and Dina Douglass to name a few. If these and other top end shooters had the gear and liked it, people would notice.

As a side note in regards to the Nikon D800, this would be a platform Ricoh, Pentax could work on. The complaint I see quite a bit about it is file size. Canon has sRAW and mRAW available in their upper end cameras and if Pentax released a camera with the 36MP chip and added this feature, it would be a huge deal. I do think there would have to be a roadmap for an upper end model to follow within a year of launching the first FF body though. One will just not cut it.
they may choose a different market than wedding guys too (but it is a big market for pro shooters)
just like the 645D was aimed at the outdoor pro more than the studio pro (though the release of the tethering solution at CP+ changes that somewhat)

I'm not sure what the plan is but i'm pretty certain it's not to continue as the limited company it is right now (they have mentioned the need for 4 cameras within the DSLR line for instance which is more than we have seen since the digital days started the most being 3 pre Hoya.

4 bodies really suggests a FF to me is in the thinking (entry/ mid/ enthusiast apsc and FF - which is a very workable lineup though still not pro - I think Pentax has never thought of DSLR/SLR as their pro line (LX excepted - the only really pro 35mm Film camera IMO - and a huge money loser apparently) - medium format was always what they considered pro - and in film days for most work except reportage it would have been true Wedding togs and studio guys all shot Medium format mostly and #% was secondary.
Some of the high end digital really changes that though
Still you mentioned guys shooting phase and hassy on the other forum. my guess is the hassy guys have been hassy guys for eons, the phase guiys may have been mamiya shooters but may have gone that way because it was the only low cost full system option in Digital medium format for a long time
The 645D could certainly change that but i think a MK2 with better AF and Flash options and a broader selection of current lenses needs to happen for that to take - a 645FF chip of course is nice but not if it means a $30000 price
I think a DFA release of the 2 645 zooms and a 105 and 150 need to happen. the 3 dfas (25/55/90) announced/in production round that out - if a FF chip is coming then maybe a DFA75 as well. No need to make them in massive qtys at first but they need to exist to make the system viable. if the 645mk1 drops to 6-7 grand and hangs around with a FF 645mk 2 at 14000 then you really open the options up.
02-14-2012, 12:04 PM   #270
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
One option left is a K-0x derivative with the 36MP FF sensor.
Can they just slap in that FF sensor with new SR module and change nothing else?


P.S. and a new shutter.

Last edited by RonHendriks1966; 02-14-2012 at 12:37 PM.
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