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03-20-2012, 03:26 PM   #466
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
AFAICS, not Olympus. They already missed that boat.
they missed that boat when they launched 4/3 never mind m4/3
kind of sad imo since i really like the om line

03-20-2012, 03:30 PM   #467
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And today's announced price drop on the K 5?
03-20-2012, 05:13 PM   #468
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Ok, I took a decision. I'll going to stop posting about the D800 outside the "Non Pentax" forums. I created the 36MP full frame camera club thread. I think I'll contain my D800 content there.

The reasoning is an ongoing debate in DPRs Canon forums. Obviously, everybody over there is discussing the D800 now (while nobody discusses the 5DmkIII) and they fear all the D800 talk will kill their forum. And I don't want that to happen to us of course

In another forum I saw a poll about switching from 5D to D800 (current yes votes at 10%).

Obviously, the current debate is more about D800 vs. the rest of the camera market rather than full frame vs. apsc. But I always said so: the first uncrippled and affordable FF camera will shake the market. It seems this was true and I am actually surprised that neither Nikon (demand exceeding supply) nor Canon (crippled 5DmkIII) correctly have foreseen this.
03-20-2012, 05:30 PM   #469
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Normally new entrants compete on price, but that's not possible with FF because Pentax does not control the supply of most of the inputs, especially the very high value sensor.
That explains why the K-5 is so much more expensive than the D7000, NOT.

03-20-2012, 06:00 PM   #470
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
In order for Pentax to make a dent in FF they will have to put out a D800 clone, a pretty hefty chunk of FF lenses, new flash system, accessories, and so on, all while selling far less that 30,000 per month.
And they'll have to do so without a pro support network that subsidizes everyone else because the pro sector will pay for what it wants when it needs it at full price.
There is no need for them to have all the pieces in place at once. They can ramp it up over time, just as Canon, Nikon, Phase One etc have done. None of those got into their current market positions in one big-bang.
03-20-2012, 06:06 PM   #471
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QuoteOriginally posted by Coeurdechene Quote
Lets just see what they do with it
The only trouble i see with the FF scenario, and that makes me dread that ricoh will follow other paths is the relative unsuccesfull venture from the giant Sony.
Sony will release a new FF camera soon. Their FF venture can not be called unsuccessful.

QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Obviously, the current debate is more about D800 vs. the rest of the camera market rather than full frame vs. apsc. But I always said so: the first uncrippled and affordable FF camera will shake the market. It seems this was true and I am actually surprised that neither Nikon (demand exceeding supply) nor Canon (crippled 5DmkIII) correctly have foreseen this.
Exactly. And watch the demand for a sub 2000 FF camera that is smaller. Lots of crow will be eaten when that happens.
03-20-2012, 07:21 PM   #472
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Ok, I took a decision. I'll going to stop posting about the D800 outside the "Non Pentax" forums. I created the 36MP full frame camera club thread. I think I'll contain my D800 content there.
Funny, with all the talk of Nikon-FF-this-and-that from certain usernames, I was thinking either the Nikon shills are in full force here, and/or this is the new advertising method to convince people to buy the new Nikon D800 (at the two major sponsors of this site of course ).
03-20-2012, 08:13 PM   #473
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
AFAICS, not Olympus. They already missed that boat.
I don't think Oly ever wanted in realistically. They dropped their entire SLR line in the 1980's to focus on P&S.

03-20-2012, 08:18 PM   #474
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QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
That explains why the K-5 is so much more expensive than the D7000, NOT.
Huh?

They're close to the same price because they have near identical components and functions for that market segment. Nikon can charge a bit more because they are Nikon. It's a brand thing, not a feature issue. Nikon clearly thinks they can get a premium and they can.
03-20-2012, 08:29 PM   #475
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
There is no need for them to have all the pieces in place at once. They can ramp it up over time, just as Canon, Nikon, Phase One etc have done. None of those got into their current market positions in one big-bang.
True, but then they have to take losses because they'll have lower sales volumes. That's the key issue is whether Ricoh is willing to take years worth of losses to break into a smallish market.

Big whup that Nikon will sell 35,000 FF units/month and Canon another 15,000. That's about 500,000 per year on a new release, which will taper off dramatically to much less in 3 years. What carries sales then is lenses and accessories.

What this tells you is that for a 5-year run of cameras Nikon will sell 3-4 million units at $3k each for the D800.

Pentax would sell what? Maybe 5% that on their FF because it would be the same price but with a far lesser array of lenses and other products?

And compete against the D700 which is still in production and going to be below $2,000/unit soon?

Pentax would have to use the same Sony sensors as Nikon and need to sell the K-FF against the D700 at the same price, but realistically, it's Nikon lenses and flashes vs. Pentax's that will make or break the sale.

And the concept that Pentax can make a cheap, small FF is nonsense because the sensor price sets a minimum sales price and for that much $$$ you need features equal to or greater than a top-of-the-line APS-C model, which is expensive. No cost cutting there or you lose even more sales to Nikon.

And the whole small FF body thing has been done to death. They are large cameras to support large lenses and brace a large sensor with shutters that blast away at high velocity and FPS. The offloading circuitry to support FF files from current Sony sensors demands larger cameras, and will for some time.

Sometimes there is not enough space in a market for the brand you like. That's just the reality here. We are a couple of years away at least before Pentax FF comes into focus I predict. A price war between Canon and Nikon and Sony is what is really needed. Then we'll see some action.

Last edited by Aristophanes; 03-21-2012 at 06:33 AM.
03-20-2012, 10:41 PM   #476
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Huh?
You missed the irony in my post.

If what you are saying about Pentax not being able to get a Sony FF sensor for a good price (because they lack the volume) were true then it stands to reason that this principle would also apply to the sensor used in the K-5 & D7000.

However, this is not so. Both cameras have had similar prices. Pentax was able to sell the K-5 at a good price despite a potential disadvantage regarding volume discounts for the sensor.

I expect this to be transferable to the FF sensor situation. No, Sony will not deny Pentax an FF sensor because Nikon does not have the power to force Sony to sell the sensor to them exclusively, and, no, Sony will not charge Pentax a prohibitive premium.
03-20-2012, 10:51 PM   #477
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
What carries sales then is lenses and accessories.
Same applies to Pentax. They already have FF Ltds they'll be able to sell with good margins and can build up their FF lens offerings from what is already available (which is more than what certain lens designations seem to indicate).

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
And compete against the D700 which is still in production and going to be below $2,000/unit soon?
That's why (I believe) Falk said Pentax has missed its window of opportunity. Nevertheless, it is still possible to successfully introduce a Pentax FF, it just won't be the head turner anymore that it would have been.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
And the concept that Pentax can make a cheap, small FF is nonsense because the sensor price sets a minimum sales price and for that much $$$ you need features equal to or greater than a top-of-the-line APS-C model, which is expensive.
The K-01 does not make sense either and Pentax still developed it and will sell lots of it.

Seriously, I think it is possible to offer a Pentax FF that won't cost an arm and a leg and which will sell well even if it does not compete with Canikon models in all aspects.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
A price war between Canon and Nikon and Sony is what is really needed.
Because when Sony is fighting a price war it will have the capacity to give away FF sensors to Pentax? Because when you can get Canison FF cameras for sub $2000, Pentax will look great with its >$2000 camera that does not compete in terms of performance?

No, Pentax should have started the price erosion. They are late to the party, now that Canikon started the ball rolling and Sony is to follow suit.
03-21-2012, 02:19 AM   #478
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
AFAICS, not Olympus. They already missed that boat.
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
I don't think Oly ever wanted in realistically. They dropped their entire SLR line in the 1980's to focus on P&S.
True and Samsung made for NX the choice for APS-C with DX-size lenses. I think also Fuji made that choice.
03-21-2012, 03:16 AM   #479
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QuoteOriginally posted by Oog Quote
Funny, with all the talk of Nikon-FF-this-and-that from certain usernames, I was thinking either the Nikon shills are in full force here, and/or this is the new advertising method to convince people to buy the new Nikon D800 (at the two major sponsors of this site of course ).
Mee too! All PF threads eventually turn into FF treads sooner or later. And those FF threads almost always turn into Nikon threads. There's many Nikon trolls around here. I think the promiss of retreating to the D800 thread is just a tactic. They were becomming to obvious about it.

I still think Pentax could issue a FF camera. Who knows what deals a big brand like Ricoh can make? Who knows what suppliers they have which nobody here even knows about?

But I also think Pentax/Ricoh is going to think outside the box. Not APSC, not FF. They could just as well come with something completely new. Maybe even with the likes of a Nokia 808 sensor, but APS-H sized? That would be a first.
03-21-2012, 03:51 AM   #480
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
But I also think Pentax/Ricoh is going to think outside the box. Not APSC, not FF. They could just as well come with something completely new.
Or a new kind of 645-mount camera - more compact and less expensive than the existing and with a modern CMOS sensor
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