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03-23-2012, 05:55 PM   #571
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
If some of the rumours are accurate I think it may call for Champagne
Rather have beer. Something from Fuller's, by choice. Or Young's Kew Brew - a beer I haven't run across in years. Apparently resurrected (sort of) as Kew Gold. Haven't been back to try it, alas.

OK, reverie ends, tangent terminated.

photokina will be riveting!

03-23-2012, 06:02 PM   #572
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
I 100% agree with this analogy. one caveat: Intel's main base for processors is business sales, not consumer. Camera sensors invert that dynamic, even for FF. The vast majority of Sony's sensors go into consumer items.
Can't see your point. Both companies almost only sell to business (system integrators). Intel has a bit of sales to consumers though.

QuoteOriginally posted by RXrenesis8 Quote
On a completely different tangent, DxO published their report on the D800 specs
I prefer discussing D800 in the appropriate subforum. There already is an ongoing discussion, including your topic.
-> https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/non-pentax-cameras-canon-nikon-etc/179950...-dxo-95-a.html
03-23-2012, 06:27 PM   #573
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The surest way to kill K-5 sales and future sales in the near term would be to have pre-release information about an FF model. So I take these combined rumours with a huge grain of salt. It would be incredibly irresponsible of Pentax corporate to stall revenues of current products to hype future ones.
There are arguments against that as well.

K-5 is nearing end of life, and consider the losses Pentax suffers to the D800 and 5DIII from folks wanting to upgrade this year or next. I'll bet a significant number of the K-5 sales you see in the marketplace over the next 6 months will be FF upgraders - if Pentax makes no visible noise about FF.

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03-23-2012, 07:23 PM   #574
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
I'll bet a significant number of the K-5 sales you see in the marketplace over the next 6 months will be FF upgraders
I assume most K-5 D800 upgraders will keep their K-5 and a few Ltds. for obvious reasons. It's just that they won't upgrade to a FF Pentax with expensive Nikkors in their arsenal.

03-23-2012, 07:33 PM   #575
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I assume most K-5 D800 upgraders will keep their K-5 and a few Ltds. for obvious reasons. It's just that they won't upgrade to a FF Pentax with expensive Nikkors in their arsenal.
I'm half and half. I'll keep one k5 and sell the other one, my current thought at least. Haven't really looked into lenses too much but there's really not a ton of reason to keep the other k5 or my lenses if Nikons are as good as everyone says.
03-23-2012, 07:41 PM   #576
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
There are arguments against that as well.

K-5 is nearing end of life, and consider the losses Pentax suffers to the D800 and 5DIII from folks wanting to upgrade this year or next. I'll bet a significant number of the K-5 sales you see in the marketplace over the next 6 months will be FF upgraders - if Pentax makes no visible noise about FF.
It's the difference between a $1,000 body and a $3,000 body. What planet do you live on?
03-23-2012, 07:44 PM   #577
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I assume most K-5 D800 upgraders will keep their K-5 and a few Ltds. for obvious reasons. It's just that they won't upgrade to a FF Pentax with expensive Nikkors in their arsenal.
Right, it doesn't really matter if they sell the K-5 or not, Pentax already has that money - point being that they will be much less likely to hold out much longer for the K-1 (FF) if they decide to spend that money on Nikon/Canon for FF - which they are more likely to do if there are no rumours about impending Pentax FF. This is counter to the "don't announce an upgrade, because it will kill sales of the current flagship" thinking.

What was that quote from Steve Jobs? "If we don't cannibalize our products, someone else will". If Pentax has an impending FF body, this is their moment to decide what should be cannibalized, and who should do the eating.

Personally, I plan to hold on to my Pentax kit and perhaps buy a K-5 or K-3 at some point - used, though. I probably will not buy more new Pentax equipment unless it's part of an FF purchase.

Last edited by jsherman999; 03-23-2012 at 10:45 PM.
03-23-2012, 07:53 PM   #578
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
It's the difference between a $1,000 body and a $3,000 body. What planet do you live on?
The same planet on which the D800 shot up to near the top of the sales charts, despite this $3000 price tag.

Your original point was that Pentax should not leak plans of an FF body, because it will negatively affect sales of the K-5. I countered that it may also keep people from jumping ship to CaNikon for FF. Also, the folks who have no intention of upgrading to FF because of price are not going to quit buying the K-5 anyway, because they're not in the market for FF.

In other words, Pentax doesn't do much harm to itself in the form of lost K-5 sales by announcing FF plans, and could possibly actually see a bump in lens sales from an FF announcement - but could lose potential FF upgraders to CaNikon if they are too silent about it for to long. Upgrade money they probably won't be able to win back.


Last edited by jsherman999; 03-23-2012 at 07:59 PM.
03-24-2012, 01:45 AM   #579
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Indeed. It's better to cannibalise your own sales than to have them cannibalised by a competitor.
03-24-2012, 02:18 AM   #580
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They could lose lots of K-5 sales when people would start raving about how the new Pentax FF should only cost $1500. Then, they would lose also when they'll launch the camera for a more realistic price
03-24-2012, 03:22 AM   #581
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
hen, they would lose also when they'll launch the camera for a more realistic price
They won't "lose" they'll just hear that till their ears are soar but people who plan to jump ship, invested in pentax and on the market for a FF will hold on till the pentax comes.
03-24-2012, 04:40 AM   #582
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
What planet do you live on?
Mine is called Planet Earth.

Since your's obviously is a different one, how is it called?
03-24-2012, 05:21 AM   #583
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I'm just hopeful I a ff within 3 years. I won't be able to justify one before that really.

I think that is basically granted though
03-24-2012, 08:03 AM   #584
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QuoteOriginally posted by jsherman999 Quote
The same planet on which the D800 shot up to near the top of the sales charts, despite this $3000 price tag.

Your original point was that Pentax should not leak plans of an FF body, because it will negatively affect sales of the K-5. I countered that it may also keep people from jumping ship to CaNikon for FF. Also, the folks who have no intention of upgrading to FF because of price are not going to quit buying the K-5 anyway, because they're not in the market for FF.

In other words, Pentax doesn't do much harm to itself in the form of lost K-5 sales by announcing FF plans, and could possibly actually see a bump in lens sales from an FF announcement - but could lose potential FF upgraders to CaNikon if they are too silent about it for to long. Upgrade money they probably won't be able to win back
You are making the erroneous assumption that a new Porsche Carrera harms Toyota Camry sales, to use a analogy.

The D800 had huge pent-up demand. That always happens and is normal, but still doesn't mean that more people are buying $3,000 bodies that normally wold over the long term. Lower-end bodies will still substantially outsell extremely expensive bodies. FF as a fraction of total market share for ILC, larger sensor cameras is still well under 5% of aggregate demand, D800 notwithstanding. Markets get irrationally excited about objects few can afford.

Pentax doesn't seem to lose too many saes via people jumping ship because of the very high FF price tags being a substantial barrier. Pentax net sales continue to grow regardless. Pentax is not necessarily "losing" customers and FF seems to have a negligible effect on overall DSLR market share.

A Pentax FF announcement though, without a price tag, will stall all sales above $1,000 per body, and would kill lens sales because no one is exactly sure what lenses will work on the "new" FF system. Fuji had the exact same problem with stalled X100 sales because they did not announce an X-Pro 1 price, and then they had to rush to announce the price so as to differentiate the market. Pentaxians would start ranting about a cheap FF model and K-5n sales would tank.

I see a concept FF likely at PK (which I stated in 2011), but with very long-term horizon for launch. As with the 645D. Pentax can do nothing now to stall D800 switchers. That horse left the gate last summer.

The real issue is not a body; it's lenses.

Also, I cannot see Ricoh running both the GXR and Pentax systems simultaneously. There are only so many internal resources.

QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Mine is called Planet Earth.

Since your's obviously is a different one, how is it called?
It's called planet market reality.
03-24-2012, 10:09 AM   #585
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You are making the erroneous assumption that a new Porsche Carrera harms Toyota Camry sales, to use a analogy.
It was you who stated that a K-1 rumour would harm sales of K-5's. That is more like like saying a new Carrera harms sales of existing Camrys... Of course that would only be the case if the new Carrera was rumoured at $28,000.

QuoteQuote:
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Pentax doesn't seem to lose too many saes via people jumping ship because of the very high FF price tags being a substantial barrier.
They're potentially losing every Pentaxian considering a D800, 5DIII, or a used D700 or 5DII. If there existed a credible Pentax FF rumour, a lot of those folks may not jump, would probably hold off on pre-orders until they at least were able to compare features and price.

QuoteQuote:
A Pentax FF announcement though, without a price tag, will stall all sales above $1,000 per body, and would kill lens sales because no one is exactly sure what lenses will work on the "new" FF system.
With an unreasonable rumoured price tag, sure. It's not likely we'll see a $1500 Pentax FF DSLR (in the first iteration, at least.) But a strong rumour of a $2500 or $3000 body would keep the tiers pretty distinct. And if Pentax lost a K-5 sale to a $3000 Pentax FF body - they'll take that delta any day of the week, especially because they know it probably means they locked the person in for some future lens sales and lessened the likelyhood that they'll jump ship in the future.


QuoteQuote:
Pentax can do nothing now to stall D800 switchers. That horse left the gate last summer.
The D800 is still backlogged. It's possible you could put in a preorder now and still have time to change your mind into August


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QuoteQuote:
The real issue is not a body; it's lenses.
Agreed, we'll have to watch the roadmap.





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