[falconeye]

You are making the erroneous assumption that a new Porsche Carrera harms Toyota Camry sales, to use a analogy.

So, what about a new series 3 BMW then? I think your analogy holds true if you wouldn't compare with an 80MP Hassy

still doesn't mean that more people are buying $3,000 bodies that normally wold over the long term. Lower-end bodies will still substantially outsell extremely expensive bodies. FF as a fraction of total market share for ILC, larger sensor cameras is still well under 5% of aggregate demand, D800 notwithstanding.

I simply don't believe this to be true anymore. You argue by historic analogy, a sure bet to miss market demand.

I count about 600 D800 preorders in my city alone and the hype is only starting. That's 1 in 2000 inhabitants. You may argue that it doesn't affect sales from the about 1 in 100 who may buy an ILC this year. You basically do.

But you ignore the ability to reallocate budget. Nokia probably argued like this when the iPhone emerged: too expensive, too few. You look like the Nokia manager, not the Apple one. You may prove right 70% of times, but not always.

Point is, the D800 will (and it already does) irritate potential APS-C buyers. Mirroeless is still fine as it is different enough. But many APS-C SLR buyers who consider spending $1000 (or $1500 for D7000 or K-5 successors) have lens investments making their budget to spend over five years closer to $5000. Look how LBA was a popular term around here which mostly disappeared in recent times. In comparison, we already stopped to invest. The money is prepared to jump ship.

To buy a $3000 full frame instead of yet another $1500 APSC is not such a surprising investment decision. Esp. if it is a hobby. And esp. as it will preserve value much better.

IMHO, there is no strict budget barrier between Pentax and its FF competition.

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Last edited by falconeye; 03-24-2012 at 12:20 PM.

[ElJamoquio]

In comparison, we already stopped to invest. The money is prepared to jump ship.

There is no budget barrier between Pentax and its FF competition. Trust me.

Indeed. I'd already have a 31mm and 77mm if I knew a full frame was coming. Right now I'm looking at the Nikon lenses.

[Coeurdechene]

And i would have spent the 7000$ that are going to Nikon in Pentax FF glass and body. Of course that would have been if they offered a better deal to oversee the system limitations, they got the premium glass at a cheaper price wich is a plus, and i use manual flash so pttl doesn't bothers me so much...the only beef i would have with the system is the 1/160 sync speed and the AF system..but i would definitely have stayed if the ff body was a bit cheaper making my investment smaller or getting more glass for the same money.
We'll see what they anounce at photokina

[Chex]

To buy a $3000 full frame instead of yet another $1500 APSC is not such a surprising investment decision. Esp. if it is a hobby. And esp. as it will preserve value much better.

IMHO, there is no strict budget barrier between Pentax and its FF competition.

I absolutely agree, my budget has not changed, but since the D800's announcement I have been saving and waiting for it.. with still no news from Pentax, I sure as hell won't waste my time holding my breath to Photokonia.. I'll be shooting with that 36MP monster well before then.

[bossa]

Even though I fell off the horse and bought two DA lenses on eBay last night I intend on selling 1/2 my Pentax gear to finance a D800 in a few months.

[Asahiflex]

I could not wait either and bought a Fully yesterday. Ehh... A full suspension XC bike that is

[Raffwal]

Asahiflex, there's actually rather little frame on that thing, so I call it half-frame.

[fikkser]

Is that a diamond shaped frame? Very strange. I prefer rectangular frames.

[bossa]

I could not wait either and bought a Fully yesterday. Ehh... A full suspension XC bike that is

You fell off of the horse and onto a bike? Well done..;-)

I run 7.5k's 5 days a week so bikes are 'for sissies' AFAIK. ;-)

..nice bike though.

[robin48gx]

Yes. Full frame. I am waiting. A full frame 36mm by 24mm sensor pentax camera with a
good mode for using the old lenses I WILL BUY !
I have my bonus from work and am looking at the nikon range.... rescue me and my old pentax lenes from the 80's

[eddie1960]

Yes. Full frame. I am waiting. A full frame 36mm by 24mm sensor pentax camera with a
good mode for using the old lenses I WILL BUY !
I have my bonus from work and am looking at the nikon range.... rescue me and my old pentax lenes from the 80's

If you want to use your old lenses then you should be looking at the Canons if you can't wait. Nikon can't accept the Pentax lenses without adding another piece of glass in the adapter
Heck they aren't even as compliant on their old glass as Pentax is
I love the idea of an uncrippled mount but can pretty much guarantee it will never happen

[drougge]

Heck they aren't even as compliant on their old glass as Pentax is
I love the idea of an uncrippled mount but can pretty much guarantee it will never happen

People keep saying this, but it's only true of the cheaper bodies. If you buy a D7000 or any of the professional bodies you get perfect compatibility. Ok, yes, pre-AI lenses (those are old, and would be M42 from Pentax) need a simple modification, but after that you get aperture readout in the finder and everything. So they get an uncrippled mount in all reasonably high end models.

I really hope Ricoh copies this from Nikon.

[Caat]

So, what about a new series 3 BMW then? I think your analogy holds true if you wouldn't compare with an 80MP Hassy



I simply don't believe this to be true anymore. You argue by historic analogy, a sure bet to miss market demand.

I count about 600 D800 preorders in my city alone and the hype is only starting. That's 1 in 2000 inhabitants. You may argue that it doesn't affect sales from the about 1 in 100 who may buy an ILC this year. You basically do.

But you ignore the ability to reallocate budget. Nokia probably argued like this when the iPhone emerged: too expensive, too few. You look like the Nokia manager, not the Apple one. You may prove right 70% of times, but not always.

Point is, the D800 will (and it already does) irritate potential APS-C buyers. Mirroeless is still fine as it is different enough. But many APS-C SLR buyers who consider spending $1000 (or $1500 for D7000 or K-5 successors) have lens investments making their budget to spend over five years closer to $5000. Look how LBA was a popular term around here which mostly disappeared in recent times. In comparison, we already stopped to invest. The money is prepared to jump ship.

To buy a $3000 full frame instead of yet another $1500 APSC is not such a surprising investment decision. Esp. if it is a hobby. And esp. as it will preserve value much better.

IMHO, there is no strict budget barrier between Pentax and its FF competition.

I generally agree but for Pentax to act on the reasoning you put forward is big risk.

The Nokia analogy doesn't quite apply because Nokia was (still is?) the largest handset manufacturer in the world. And, perhaps ironically, was protected from total meltdown at least partly because of it's massive presence in the low-mid end of the market globally and huge mind as well as market share. Of course it's squandered much of that but Pentax is in a much more precarious position vis a vis the FF camera segment.

[parsons]

I just think if there was a FF camera then more people would come into the brand at Aps-c because there is an upgrade path open to them if they may want it in a few years. It also shows that Pentax is a committed brand- they can produce the high end products- and that will provide reassurance to the consumer that the product is high quality also. I suppose that the 645d does this already to a cirtain extent, but there is such a gap between the two price wise that people could just think they are completely devorced from each other.
A whole range of cameras would inspire more people into Pentax. If they release a FF then there will be a more complete line up than most of the other brands (obv minus the lenses etc but they would come in time)

[Ash]

Good point regarding the upgrade path for Pentax APS-C users, though that would have to be worked out strategically by Pentax given some obstacles getting the DA lenses to work on a FF format.